Global Oil&Gas Tanker Outlook
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1 MARSEILLE MARITIME 28 Global Oil&Gas Tanker Outlook ( and just a few words on containerships) Ralph Leszczynski Marseille, 16 September 28 banchero costa research - research@bancosta.it
2 Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party s, public and private, and is provided for information purposes only. Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from. Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness. banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.
3 Crude Oil Tankers banchero costa
4 Baltic Tanker Indices (Dirty and Clean) - 1 YEAR 2,5 2, Baltic Indices 1,5 1, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index The tanker market was on a positive trend over the last 12 months
5 Baltic Tanker Indices (Dirty and Clean) - 1 YEARS 3,5 3, 2,5 Baltic Indices 2, 1,5 1, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index Long term, it remains relatively stable (apart from the strong volatility )
6 14, Baltic Tanker Indices vs. Baltic Dry Index 12, 1, Baltic Indices 8, 6, 4, 2, Baltic Dry Index Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index The spread between dry and tanker indices has never been as great as this year
7 6 World Seaborne Crude Oil Trade (estimates, in thousands barrels per day) 5 Thousands barrels daily % +9.9% +4.5% +2.2% +2.4% +2.8% +4.% -3.5% -3.% (e) 28 (f) Crude Oil Trade Y-o-Y Growth
8 2 VLCC Tanker Trading Fleet (Estimate, in total DWT) mln DWT % +3.5% +4.1% +4.5% +2.9% +3.9% +.1% -2.3% -1.3% (f) VLCC Tanker Fleet Y-o-Y Growth
9 75 Suezmax Tanker Trading Fleet (Estimate, in total DWT) 6 mln DWT % +4.3% +3.6% +4.2% +7.6% +5.1% +4.6% +3.3% -5.% (f) Suezmax Tanker Fleet Y-o-Y Growth
10 1 Aframax Tanker Trading Fleet (Estimate, in total DWT) 8 mln DWT % +3.8% +8.2% +5.4% +6.2% +6.2% +5.8% +8.7% -.1% (f) Aframax Tanker Fleet Y-o-Y Growth
11 15% VLCC Fleet Growth v. Crude Oil Trade (Estimates of percentage year-on-year changes) percentage change year-on-year 1% 5% % -5% 7.1% 3.1% -2.3% -3.5% -3.% -1.3% 9.9%.1% 3.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.9% 4.% -1% Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Trading VLCC Tanker Fleet
12 banchero costa VLCC Tanker (2,-35, dwt) Age Profile number of vessels Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) Newbuilding
13 15% Suezmax Fleet Growth v. Crude Oil Trade (Estimates of percentage year-on-year changes) percentage change year-on-year 1% 5% % -5% 7.1% 2.3% -3.5% -5.% 4.3% -3.% 9.9% 3.6% 4.2% 4.5% 7.6% 5.1% 4.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.3% 4.% -1% Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Trading Suezmax Tanker Fleet
14 banchero costa Suezmax Tanker (12,-199,999 dwt) Age Profile number of vessels Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) Newbuilding
15 15% Aframax Fleet Growth v. Crude Oil Trade (Estimates of percentage year-on-year changes) percentage change year-on-year 1% 5% % -5% 7.1%.8% -.1% -3.5% 3.8% -3.% 9.9% 8.2% 5.4% 4.5% 6.2% 6.2% 5.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 8.7% 4.% -1% Seaborne Crude Oil Trade Trading Suezmax Tanker Fleet
16 banchero costa Aframax Tanker (78,-119,999 dwt) Age Profile number of vessels Scrapped Trading (SS) Trading (DS+DB) Trading (DH) Newbuilding
17 2 China - Seaborne Crude Oil Imports (customs data, in million tonnes gross) million tonnes % +35% % +7% +3% +14% +12% +15% (f) Crude Oil Imports Y-o-Y Growth Growth rates in Chinese oil imports have been in double digits this decade, albeit quite volatile
18 5 China - Comparison of Iron Ore and Crude Oil Imports (customs data, in million tonnes gross) 4 mln tonnes per year (f) Iron Ore Imports Crude Oil Imports Chinese oil imports have grown strongly this decade, although less steeply than iron ore imports
19 Volume Increase in Refinery Capacity 2-27 (estimates, in million barrels per day) China 1.8 USA 1. Middle East.9 India 1. Other Asia Europe.5.6 Africa Other Americas Japan It increased capacity more than any other region this decade, and more is to come in the next few years
20 Share of World Petroleum Products Consumption in 26 (source: BP Energy Review) India and Other Asia 14% Africa 3% Other Americas 11% USA 26% Japan 6% China 9% Middle East 7% Europe (inc. Russia) 24% It still accounts for less than 1% of oil consumption, whilst having one fifth of the world s population
21 12, World's Top 1 Net Oil Importers in 26 (source: eia) 1, Thousand barrels daily 8, 6, 4, 2, USA Japan China Germany Korea France India Italy Spain Taiwan And yet, China still imports four times less oil than the USA, and only twice more than Italy or Spain
22 Chinese oil production and consumption in mln tonnes China - Crude Oil Production and Consumption (estimates, in mln tonnes) (f) Consumption Production Chinese oil demand growth is fast outstripping domestic production, increasing reliance on imports
23 1,2 USA, 123 Number of Vehicles per 1 People over 16 y.o. (source: abc news) no. of cars every 1 people over 16 y.o France, 72 Japan, 68 India, 11 China, 9 Just immagine if every Chinese had a car...
24 LNG Carriers banchero costa
25 banchero costa LNG Carrier Age Profile (all sizes) This year (28) is a peak year for newbuilding deliveries number of vessels Trading Orderbook
26 LNG Carrier Age Profile (by size range) 5 4 number of vessels Trading <9cbm Trading 9-2cbm Trading >2cbm Orderbook <9cbm Orderbook 9-2cbm Orderbook >2cbm And almost half of deliveries are giant ships over 2, cbm!
27 LNG Carrier Age Profile Pie Orderbook / Trading 47.5 % 2,8 14% 2,9 11% 2,1 5% up to 5 yrs (blt 3-7) 33% > 3 yrs (< 1977) 9% 26-3 yrs (78-82) 6% yrs (83-87) 2% 16-2 yrs (88-92) 2% yrs (93-97) 9% 6-1 yrs (98-2) 9% The orderbook is almost 5% of the trading fleet, and lng ships can trade well over 3 years
28 Global LNG Importers in 27 (% of total trade in bcm, data from bp energy review) South Korea 15% Taiwan 5% India 4% China 2% Mexico & C.Am. 1% USA 1% Spain 11% France 6% Japan 39% Other Europe 2% Portugal 1% Italy 1% Turkey 3% The bulk of imports is to East Asia, but the Mediterranean accounts for one quarter of volumes
29 Global LNG Exporters in 27 (% of total trade in bcm, data from bp energy review) Oman 5% Nigeria 9% Trinidad & Tobago 8% Others 2% Indonesia 12% UAE 3% Malaysia 13% Qatar 18% Egypt 6% Algeria 11% Brunei 4% Australia 9% Exports are still well diversified between South-East Asia, North Africa, the Gulf, and Central America
30 LNG Exporters to the Mediterranean in 27 (% of total trade in bcm, data from bp energy review) Nigeria 33% Others 2% Algeria 39% Trinidad & Tobago 5% Qatar 9% Egypt 12% Most Mediterranean imports come from North Africa (52%) and Nigeria (33%)
31 Containerships banchero costa
32 All Containership Fleet (1+ TEU) (fleet capacity in ' TEU, at end of year) ' TEU % 13.3% 15.1% 11.7% 5.1% 9.8% 12.1% 1.5% 8.9% 9.8% 13.1% 16.6% 21.% 15.6% 13.% 11.2% 3.2% Historical Fleet Size Projection based on Orderbook and no Scrapping Growth Y-o-Y
33 Comparison and 3+ TEU Containerships (fleet capacity in ' TEU, at end of year) ' TEU projection based on Orderbook Total Fleet TEU Total Fleet 3+ TEU
34 Containership Fleet by Size in year 22 (as percentage by TEU total) 3+ TEU 47% 1-5 TEU 3% TEU 7% TEU 23% TEU 2%
35 Containership Fleet by Size in year 212 (as percentage by TEU total) 1-5 TEU 1% TEU 4% TEU 12% TEU 12% 3+ TEU 71%
36 Containership 34 TEU Timecharter Rates (gr'less vessel, 1 Year TC in USD/Day) 5 4 USD/Day
37 Containership 1 TEU Timecharter Rates (grd vessel, 1 Year TC in USD/Day) 2 15 USD/Day
38 Conclusions banchero costa
39 Conclusions: Crude Tanker Supply: plenty of (especially small) newbuildings! Demand: look out for China & India LNG Carriers Supply: plenty of (especially large) newbuildings! Demand: look out for just about everywhere! Containerships Supply: plenty of (large!) newbuildings! Demand: more globalisation?!?
40 head office via pammatone, genoa (italy) phone: dry c. - cape/pmx capespmx@bancosta.it derivatives derivatives@bancosta.it dry c. - handy handy@bancosta.it research research@bancosta.it dry c. - operating dryoper@bancosta.it lng projects gas@bancosta.it tankers tanker@bancosta.it agency bcagy@bcagy.it containers containers@bancosta.it insurance insurance@bancostains.it s&p salepurchase@bancosta.it p&i main.ge@bseag.it ship finance financial@bancosta.it accounting account@bcaccount.it bancosta monaco bancosta geneva bancosta uk bancosta moscow monte carlo geneva london moscow phone: phone: phone: phone: info@bancosta-monaco.com info@bancosta.ch info@bancosta.co.uk jivotenko@bancosta.it bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente hong kong singapore beijing phone: phone: phone: bancosta.oriente@bancosta.com.hk bancosta.oriente@bancosta.com.hk bancostabeijing@bancosta.it web site : for any query, feel free to contact our research desk at: research@bancosta.it
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