India & Asia. Steel Scrap Industry BY: VED PRAKASH GEMINI CORPORATION N. V., BELGIUM

Transcription

1 India & Asia Steel Scrap Industry BY: VED PRAKASH GEMINI CORPORATION N. V., BELGIUM 1

2 GEMINI CORPORATION N. V. Steel, Recyclable Plastics, Rubber and Engineered Wood Panels 2

3 Content How competitive are Asian EAFs compared with cheap iron ore consuming BFs Which have been the most active Asian trade routes from the USA this year? India: how is India streamlining its import systems? How healthy is demand? North Asia: what are Korean, Taiwan and Japanese prices and demand like? Where are these regions getting their material from? South-East Asia: how much scrap are they consuming? 3

4 Scrappy Year 2015 Shredded Scrap (EUR/MT) January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: eurofer.org 4

5 EAF vs BF Country Steel Production (MMT) BF (%) EAF (%) China % 6% India % 58% Japan % 23% South Korea % 34% Taiwan % 41% Other Asia % 100% Total 1, % 16% India, an exception amongst the major Asia s steel makers, relies primarily on EAF Turkish Billet vs Chinese Billet (Scrap Route vs BOF Route) Domestic Billet Prices EXW (USD/MT) Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 China Turkey 5

6 Asian Steel Scrap Industry 2014 Steel Scrap Imports PAK 2.4 MMT THAI 1.4 MMT VIET 2.1 MMT IND 5.7 MMT BAN 0.2 MMT MAL 0.9 MMT INDO 2.13 MMT CHI 2.5 MMT KOR 8.0 MMT TAI 4.2 MMT Major Exporters: Europe 2.2 MMT South Africa 1.1 MMT UAE 1.0 MMT USA 0.9 MMT Australia 0.3 MMT Singapore 0.3 MMT Brazil 0.1 MMT Major Exporters: USA 1.6 MMT Australia 1.5 MMT Japan 1.4 MMT Singapore 0.6 MMT Hong Kong 0.4 MMT Brazil 0.3 MMT South Africa 0.2 MMT Major Exporters: Japan 5.9 MMT USA 2.5 MMT Europe 0.5 MMT 6

7 Asian Steel Scrap Industry US Trade Routes 2014 Exports H Exports Change from H1 Country (MMT) (MMT) 2014 (%) Turkey % India % Taiwan % South Korea % China % South East Asia % Overall Scrap Exports % Silk Route trades (US WC to Taiwan & Korea) fell to 2.0 MMT from 2.3 MMT 7

8 North East Asia Steel Scrap Industry Korea Korea slipped from 2 nd to 3 rd largest scrap importer Steep fall in scrap imports by 35.5% to MMT in H Steel industry heavily dependent on steel exports (prod MMT, exports 32 MMT) Taiwan Scrap imports were 5.3 MMT in 2010 & have fallen gradually to 4.2 MMT in Minor rise in import volumes by 4% to 2.3 MMT. China Reliance on scrap is falling continuously from 6 MMT in 2010 to just 2.5 MMT last year. China imports 90% of its scrap from Japan. Import volumes fell by 2.4% to MMT in H Steel Production Jan to Sep 2015 China -1.7% Japan -5.2% South Korea -3.4% Taiwan -0.6% Thailand -8.0% Asia -1.7% Japan Exports around 7.5 MMT 50% to Korea & 30% to China. Surge of 10.8% in exports of Scrap to MMT owing to significant rise in Viet Nam & Taiwan trades. 8

9 Indian Steel Industry 90 MMT in 2015 Production grew from 49.5 MMT to 90 MMT over 10 years 10% India: Steel Production YoY Growth (%) YoY production growth rate is inconsistent. As planned in 2011, India should have reached to 115 MMT production in YoY Growth (%) 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Fragmented Steel Industry. Growth in Steel production differs from state to state. NO TREND IN STEEL SCRAP IMPORTS. YoY Growth (%) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% India: Steel Production vs Steel Scrap Imports Steel Scrap Import (MMT) Steel Scrap Imports (% growth YoY) Steel Production (% growth YoY) Steel Scrap Import (MMT) -40%

10 Indian Steel Industry 90 MMT in 2015 Unique raw material consumption patterns: Steel scrap consumption +/ MMT, imported scrap around 6 MMT. Steel from Iron Ore route +/- 50 MMT & DRI +/- 20 MMT. DRI production capacity reached to 45 MMT. India will have lot of choice for imported scrap. Imported scrap will play only a balancing role, unlike Turkey (steel production of 34 MMT, scrap imports of 19 MMT). Finished steel imports rose significantly to 71% (to 9.32 MMT in Financial Year ). 10

11 Indian Steel Industry Chinese entrepreneur Zhao Qingfeng s shop sits hidden in a maze of several thousand outlets at the Yiwu market the world s largest commodity market. Such small entrepreneurs have Made in listed China annual sales of over 10 million Yuan. 11

12 Emerging Scenario in Asia Asian steel scrap is around 30 MMT import market. Emerging exporters Singapore & Hong Kong, exporting 1 MMT and 0.5 MMT, respectively. Brazil is another emerging scrap exporter to Asia. Major importers - Korea & Taiwan are gradually decreasing scrap imports causing Australia & Japan to change the gears towards Indian subcontinent. Scrap importers Taiwan, Korea & China are likely to become scrap exporters. Pakistan & Bangladesh will increase scrap imports Chinese dominance on Steel will continue. 12

13 Steel Scrap - Hong Kong 13

14 Steel Scrap - Japan 14

15 Steel Scrap - Taiwan 15

16 International Scrap Trade Volumes Million Tons (e) World Crude Steel Production Seaborne Iron Ore Global Trade Of Steel Scrap 16

17 What is scrap going to do? If I knew that, I wouldn t be sitting here! THANK YOU Ved Prakash vp@geminicorp.be Data Sources: BIR, World Steel Organization, Steel First, etc. 17