Performance Evaluation of a Water Resources System under Varying Climatic Conditions: Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and Beyond
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1 Performance Evaluation of a Water Resources System under Varying Climatic Conditions: Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and Beyond Tirusew Asefa, Ph.D., P.E., John Clayton, Ph.D., P.E., Alison Adams, Ph.D., P.E. Damann Anderson, P.E. May 26, 2011 Orlando, FL
2 Who we are Desal Water Ground Water Surface Water 15 BG Reservoir
3 Who we are (cont.) 2.4 Million Residents mgd annual average Seasonal to decadal variable climate 3
4 Scale Av. Power ( mm 2 ) Period (years) rainfall (mm) Central Florida Rainfall: a multi-scale climatic signal measuring device ENSO JFM Mean Time (year) La Nina Neutral El Nino MarProb Wet Normal Dry MarProb b) rainfall Wavelet Power Spectrum c) Global Wavelet Spectrum AMO Filter Time (year) d) 4-8 yr Scale-average Time Series Time (year) Power (mm 2 ) La Nina Neutral El Nino MarProb Wet Normal Dry MarProb La Nina Neutral El Nino MarProb Wet Normal Dry MarProb /59 4
5 Reliable and Resilient Water Supply and Delivery System Groundwater Desalinated seawater Surface water Infrastructure Strategic Plan: Best in Class Utility Water treatment plants Demand and water use efficiencies
6 Objective Establish baseline Reliability Resilience, and Vulnerability Assess changes in RRV because of climate variability as well as additional source and sink
7 Reliability: RRV: Definition (Hashimoto et al., 1982) Describes the frequency or probability of a system in satisfactory state Resilience: Describes how quickly a system rebounds from an unsatisfactory state Vulnerability: Describes how sever is the unsatisfactory state/or the parameters that caused it
8 Modeling Approach Three hundred years long and 1000 ensemble stream flow simulation Rainfall/Runoff model based on 106 years rainfall data for 2 stations and 30 years for another Daily disaggregated flow Model that mimics Tampa Bay Water and City of Tampa operations
9 Definitions for RRV RRV s are calculated by noting satisfactory Satisfactory Unsatisfactory vs. states states unsatisfactory Res defined Elev. above as Res. Elev. Below 85 ft (Level 4 in WSMP) states 100 ft
10 Example: CWYR level 100MGD SWTP Z: Total number of days reservoir is in satisfactory state T: Total number simulation days (300 years) W: Total number of times reservoir comes out of unsatisfactory states (reaches 100ft)
11 Future Scenarios Change in source: modification in withdrawal permit, additional capacity through expansion Sink: Changes in demand reflected by higher treatment production level
12 Reliability/Resilience Scenario Satisfactory days Average Satisfactory Duration (year) Average Unsatisfactory (Days) ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res Alafia 10 withdrawal rule ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res15.4 Recovered Baseline Reliability ALF65 SWTP90 Res with 3BG expansion 153 ALF65 SWTP100 Res15.4 ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res
13 Mean Return Periods (year) of Unsatisfactory Events (in days) Scenario ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res Alafia 10 withdrawal rule ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res15.4 Increase in mean return Recovery using BG 47 storage ALF65 SWTP90 Res15.4 If Alafia was to remain ALF65 SWTP100 Res ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res
14 Mean Return Period of Vulnerability (yr) Scenario 700MG 3000MG ALF65_SWTP65_Res ALF65_SWTP80_Res ALF65_SWTP90_Res ALF65_SWTP100_Res ALF65_SWTP65_Res ALF65_SWTP80_Res ALF65_SWTP90_Res ALF65_SWTP100_Res Alafia 10 withdrawal rule ALF65_SWTP65_Res ALF65_SWTP80_Res ALF65_SWTP90_Res15.4 Recovered baseline value ALF65_SWTP100_Res with 3BG expansion ALF65_SWTP65_Res ALF65_SWTP80_Res ALF65_SWTP90_Res ALF65_SWTP100_Res
15 Used vs. Available Flows Scenarios Alafia Used (mgd) Available TBC Used (mgd) Available ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res Alafia 10 withdrawal rule ALF65 SWTP65 Res ALF65 SWTP80 Res Change ALF65 SWTP90 Res in ALF65 SWTP100 Res percentage 84 ALF65 SWTP65 Res of 60 ALF65 SWTP80 Res withdrawal 72 ALF65 SWTP90 Res ALF65 SWTP100 Res
16 Summary Additional Source Reliability increase by 0.6 to 7.3 depending on demand increase Mean satisfactory duration increase by 1.4yr to 18.4 yr (28 to 62) Vulnerability for 700MG and 3000MG changes 2 to 16 yrs and 3.6 to 7.6 yrs, respectively
17 Summary (cont.) Expansion Reliability increase by 0.5 to 3.4 depending on demand increase Mean satisfactory duration increase by 1yr to 16 yr (37 to 55) Vulnerability for 700MG and 3000MG changes 1.2 to 9.2 yrs and 1.5 to 6.8 yrs, respectively
18 Thank you Question?
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