Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models
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1 Hi-Res Rapid Refresh -Experimental 3km run - - Initialized by RUC/RR Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models RUC current NCEP operational model -13km Radar ilation since Nov h extension- Dec09 Rapid Refresh (RR) will replace RUC at NCEP in 2010 WRF-ARW, GSI w/ RUCbased enhancements Real-time Rapid Refresh domain Operational RUC-13 domain CONUS- Sept
2 Hi-Res Rapid Refresh -Experimental 3km run - - Initialized by RUC/RR Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models RUC current NCEP operational model -13km Radar ilation since Nov h extension- Dec09 Rapid Refresh (RR) will replace RUC at NCEP in 2010 WRF-ARW, GSI w/ RUCbased enhancements Real-time Rapid Refresh domain Operational RUC-13 domain CONUS- Sept09
3 RUC / RR Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI) -30 min -15 min Init +15 min Backwards integration, no physics Forward integration, full physics Obtain initial fields with improved balance RUC model forecast
4 RUC / RR Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI) add ilation of data -30 min -15 min Init +15 min Backwards integration, no physics Forward integration, full physics Apply latent heating from reflectivity, lightning data Obtain initial fields with improved balance, divergent wind fields associated with ongoing convection RUC model forecast
5 cint = 0.5 K level k = 25 Temperature Tendency (K / 15 min) NSSL reflectivity (dbz) Z = 3 km 21z 15 Oct 2008 Sample ilation (one cycle) K=35 U-comp. diff ( - norad) Upper-level Divergence K=15 U-comp. diff ( - norad) Low-level Convergence Radar ilation applied each hour Diff from single update -- cycle with cint = 0.2 m/s cint = 0.2 m/s
6 00z+6h No 00z+6h RUC RUC ilation on 1 grid improves forecast NSSL verification 06z 16 Aug 2007
7 CSI 2008 reflectivity verification Skill vs. forecast length Radar No Radar Forecast Length 30 dbz reflectivity on grid Verification period 23 June 25 Aug 2008
8 with 2 nd pass ilation on domain RUC 1 18z Radar 27 June h fcsts Both forecsts have RUC 1 DFI reflectivity. 2nd pass ( DFI DA) greatly reduces initial spin-up NO RUC 1
9 with 2 nd pass DA on domain 19z Radar 27 June h fcsts Both forecsts have RUC 1 DFI reflectivity. 2nd pass ( DFI DA) greatly reduces initial spin-up NO
10 with 2 nd pass DA on domain 20z Radar 27 June h fcsts Both forecsts have RUC 1 DFI reflectivity. 2nd pass ( DFI DA) greatly reduces initial spin-up NO
11 with 2 nd pass DA on domain 21z Radar 27 June z Radar + 3h fcsts Both forecsts have RUC 1 DFI reflectivity. 2nd pass ( DFI DA) greatly reduces initial spin-up NO
12 with 2 nd pass DA on domain 22z Radar 27 June h fcsts Both forecsts have RUC 1 DFI reflectivity. 2nd pass ( DFI DA) greatly reduces initial spin-up NO
13 Real-time CONUS runs at ESRL 9h forecast valid 03z 16 Oct 2009
14 Real-time CONUS runs at ESRL NW NC NE SW SC SE
15 HCPF (probabilistic) and (deterministic) HCPF is based on time-lagged forecasts Development GSD (Curtis Alexander, Doug Koch, Steve Weygandt) HCPF is basis for CoSPA probability forecast
16 July 16, 2009 HCPF / overlay Reflectivity (dbz) Probability (%) Verification 15z + 6h and HCPF
17 3h forecast Valid 15z Mon 31 Aug chem-fire -Western US, WRF-chem -Init=RUC, same as - Run every 6h -Uses real-time GOES ABBA hourly fire data Chem addition to hourly updated NWP -Eastern 2/3 US -Init=RUC, WRF-non-chem - Run every 1h
18 3h forecast Valid 15z Mon 31 Aug chem-fire -Western US, WRF-chem -Init=RUC, same as - Run every 6h -Uses real-time GOES ABBA hourly fire data Chem addition to hourly updated NWP 2.5 micron particulate matter - At lowest level (~8m above ground
19 Future plans in collaboration with NCEP, FAA partners (NCAR, MIT/LL, others) 2010 Rapid Refresh operational at NCEP 2012 Operational (NCEP) CONUS-wide High Resolution Rapid Refresh nested inside RR 2013 Ensemble RR (~6 members, ARW, NMM cores) - NRRE 2014 Add operational Alaska 2015 Ensemble -E 2017 Global Rapid Refresh (GRR) Incorporation of inline chemistry Assimilation of radial wind, new satellite, phased-array, CASA, new regional aircraft, chemistry obs Frequency from 60min 30 15min Improved nowcast/blend/nwp Rapid Refresh Applications: Aviation, severe wx, hydrology, energy, air quality, fire wx, volcanoes/hazards, etc.
Jason Sippel & EMC HWRF team with contributions from others
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NE (SE) Beam
Predicted clear day beam and diffuse irradiances (/ W m 2 ) on vertical and horizontal surfaces on specified days in northern (N) and southern (S) hemispheres (see notes at foot of table): LATITUDE 60
Sunrise: 05:48 N (S) Beam
Predicted clear day beam and diffuse irradiances (/ W m 2 ) on vertical and horizontal surfaces on specified days in northern (N) and southern (S) hemispheres (see notes at foot of table): LATITUDE 40
W (W) Beam
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Design Criteria Data
RAPID CITY SD Latitude = 44.5 N WMO No. 72662 Longitude =3. W Elevation = 3169 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 26.67 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
COLUMBIA SC Latitude = 33.95 N WMO No. 7231 Longitude = 81.12 W Elevation = 226 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.8 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
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Design Criteria Data
MINOT AFB ND Latitude = 48.42 N WMO No. 727675 Longitude =11.3 W Elevation = 1667 feet Period of Record = 1967 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.16 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
OKLAHOMA CITY OK Latitude = 35.4 N WMO No. 72353 Longitude = 97.6 W Elevation = 133 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.62 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
MEDFORD/JACKSON CO. OR Latitude = 42.37 N WMO No. 72597 Longitude =122.8 W Elevation = 1329 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.61 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident
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Design Criteria Data
DES MOINES IA Latitude = 41.53 N WMO No. 72546 Longitude = 93.65 W Elevation = 965 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.96 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
PIERRE SD Latitude = 44.38 N WMO No. 726686 Longitude =1.2 W Elevation = 1742 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.1 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
PHILADELPHIA PA Latitude = 39.88 N WMO No. 7248 Longitude = 75.25 W Elevation = 3 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.98 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
HONOLULU/OAHU HI Latitude = 21.35 N WMO No. 91182 Longitude =157.9 W Elevation = 16 feet Period of Record = 1967 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.96 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
BURLINGTON VT Latitude = 44.47 N WMO No. 72617 Longitude = 73.15 W Elevation = 341 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.61 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
INDIANAPOLIS IN Latitude = 39.73 N WMO No. 72438 Longitude = 86.27 W Elevation = 87 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.15 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
LAS VEGAS/MCCARRAN NV Latitude = 36.8 N WMO No. 72386 Longitude =115.1 W Elevation = 2179 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 27.67 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
MACON/LEWIS WILSON GA Latitude = 32.7 N WMO No. 72217 Longitude = 83.65 W Elevation = 361 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.66 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
PHOENIX/SKY HARBOR AZ Latitude = 33.43 N WMO No. 72278 Longitude =112. W Elevation = 116 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.72 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
ANCHORAGE AK Latitude = 61.17 N WMO No. 7273 Longitude =15. W Elevation = 131 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.6 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
JACKSONVILLE FL Latitude = 3.5 N WMO No. 7226 Longitude = 81.7 W Elevation = 3 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 3.1 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
SPOKANE WA Latitude = 47.63 N WMO No. 72785 Longitude =117.5 W Elevation = 2366 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 27.5 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
DENVER/STAPLETON CO Latitude = 39.75 N WMO No. 72469 Longitude =14.8 W Elevation = 5332 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1995 Average Pressure = 24.66 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
DAYTON/JAMES M COX OH Latitude = 39.9 N WMO No. 72429 Longitude = 84.2 W Elevation = 14 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.95 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
LOUISVILLE/STANDIFORD KY Latitude = 38.18 N WMO No. 72423 Longitude = 85.73 W Elevation = 489 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.49 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident
Design Criteria Data
SPRINGFLD MO Latitude = 37.23 N WMO No. 7244 Longitude = 93.38 W Elevation = 127 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.66 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
BIRMINGHAM AL Latitude = 33.57 N WMO No. 72228 Longitude = 86.75 W Elevation = 63 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.36 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
BOSTON/LOGAN MA Latitude = 42.37 N WMO No. 7259 Longitude = 71.3 W Elevation = 3 feet Period of Record = 1967 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.95 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL MN Latitude = 44.88 N WMO No. 72658 Longitude = 93.22 W Elevation = 837 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.7 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
WASHINGTON/DULLES VA Latitude = 38.95 N WMO No. 7243 Longitude = 77.45 W Elevation = 322 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.68 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
MIDLAND TX Latitude = 31.95 N WMO No. 72265 Longitude =2. W Elevation = 2861 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 27.3 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
NEW YORK/JOHN F KENNEDY NY Latitude = 4.65 N WMO No. 74486 Longitude = 73.78 W Elevation = 23 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.98 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident
Design Criteria Data
DULUTH MN Latitude = 46.83 N WMO No. 72745 Longitude = 92.18 W Elevation = 1417 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 28.43 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average) Values
Design Criteria Data
LANDER/HUNT WY Latitude = 42.82 N WMO No. 72576 Longitude =18.7 W Elevation = 5558 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 24.44 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
ALBUQUERQUE NM Latitude = 35.5 N WMO No. 72365 Longitude =16.6 W Elevation = 5315 feet Period of Record = 1967 to 1996 Average Pressure = 24.72 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
Design Criteria Data
CHARLESTON/KANAWHA WV Latitude = 38.37 N WMO No. 72414 Longitude = 81.6 W Elevation = 981 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29. inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
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CHICAGO/O HARE IL Latitude = 41.98 N WMO No. 7253 Longitude = 87.9 W Elevation = 673 feet Period of Record = 1967 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.27 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
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MADISON/DANE CO. RGNL WI Latitude = 43.13 N WMO No. 72641 Longitude = 89.33 W Elevation = 866 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 29.5 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident
Design Criteria Data
RENO/CANNON INTL NV Latitude = 39.5 N WMO No. 72488 Longitude =119.7 W Elevation = 44 feet Period of Record = 1973 to 1996 Average Pressure = 25.57 inches Hg Design Criteria Data Mean Coincident (Average)
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