The Dark Horse INITIATING COVERAGE

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1 The Dark Horse INITIATING COVERAGE Industry Mr. S G Murali Chief Financial Officer TVS Motors Limited Ph: Fax: Stock metrics Bloomberg code Reuters code BSE Group TVSL@IN TVSM.BO BSE Code NSE Code B TVSMOTOREQ Face Value Rs 1 Market Data Market Cap (Rs cr) WeekHigh/Low 81.75/19.65 Sensex Nifty DII 13% AUTOMOBILE Shareholding Pattern FII 4% Others 23% TVS Motor Company Current Price Rs 90 Potential Upside 36% Target Price Rs 122 Time Frame 2 years TVS Motor Company Limited, the flagship company of the USD 2.2 billion TVS Group, is the third largest two-wheeler manufacturer in India and among the top ten in the world, with an annual turnover of over USD 650 million. The company has many first to its credit like the introduction of the first indigenous moped and a 100 cc motorcycle in collaboration with Japanese auto giant Suzuki. TVS Motor Company Limited (TVSM) has been contemplating an aggressive approach to improve market for its two wheelers. Its new launches and innovations in the 2-wheeler sector have resulted in improvement of sales and have paved way for greater penetration into the motorcycles market and soon the scooter market. Company s performance Company s total volume rose by 29.5% yoy for Q4FY10. Realization increased by 5.3% on account of substantial jump in three wheeler sales. Operating margins stood at 7.8% driven by lower raw material costs. Valuation We have used P/E method to arrive at the estimated price. Currently at Rs 90, it is trading at PE multiple of FY10 earnings whereas it is trading at a PE multiple & of FY11E & FY12E earnings. Considering the facts and figures, we have arrived at the target price of Rs 122 assigning the current PE to future discounted earnings. We are recommending a strong buy on this stock at current level expecting an upside of 36%. Year Ended March F Y 08 F Y 09 F Y10 F Y 11E F Y 12E Promotors 60% Research Analyst Pankti.Shah pankti.shah@inventuregrowth.com Denil Savla denil.savla@inventuregrowth.com Ext 581,583 23rd March, 2010 Net Sales (Rs. Crs) Growth (%) -16% 14% 16% 9% 8% EBIDTA (Rs. Crs) EBIDTA (%) 4.1% 5.15% 6.14% 6.93% 7.35% PBIT (Rs. Crs) PAT (Rs. Crs) Net Profit Margin (%) 0.9% 0.8% 1.55% 3.09% 3.65% EPS ROE (%) 4% 4% 8.1% 14.9% 16.1% P/E Source: IGSL Research 1

2 TABLE OF CONTENT Sr. No. Particulars Page No. 1 Investment Rationale 3 2 Company Background 6 3 Business overview 7 4 Industry Outlook 9 6 Company s Sales snapshot 12 7 Future outlook 13 8 Concerns Profit & Loss Account Analysis Balance sheet Analysis Cash Flow Statement Ratios Peer Group Analysis Financial Charts 20 2

3 All Plants are efficiently utilized to meet the sales requirement Venturing international markets to capture three wheeler segment Increase in dealership network for three wheelers Investment Rationale Strong Presence in two wheeler segment TVS Motors has already set up three plants for two wheeler productions at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh with installed capacity of units p.a., units p.a. and 500,000 units p.a. Apart from the domestic market, the company has also started tapping International markets. The company had ventured into Indonesia, which is third largest two wheeler market, from where the company can tap the South Eastern countries. The Dealer network in Indonesia had been increased which ensures the presence of TVS in 13 provinces covering all major islands of Indonesia. Entering strongly in the three wheeler segment The company recently started exporting its three-wheelers to selected countries like Sri Lanka, Ethiopia and Egypt and they expect to sell at least 10,000 units in the next fiscal. Also the company plans to enter the diesel passenger market in the autorickshaw category of three-wheelers and the company may accomplish this within the next months. The diesel threewheeler will target the semi-urban and rural markets. The company is planning to increase its dealership network in the three-wheeler segment to 110 outlets by March The dealership network in December, 2009 was 70 outlets for three wheelers. Margin improvement on the cards With an increase in volume and the improvement in product mix, we estimate the company s operating margin can move up in the coming quarters. The effect of input material price increase can be partially cushioned by the incremental production from the Himachal plant and an improved product mix. TVS has been running at 50-60% capacity utilization in the past couple of fiscals, much lesser than the sector average of 70-80%, thus giving it ample scope for margin improvement on economies of scale. Entering into different segment of scooters (100+ CC) The company is active in the low-end 60/90cc Scooty models, with a market share of 18% currently. With 70% of the 1.45mn domestic scooter market being dominated by the 100cc+ models, we believe TVS is right in entering the higher-end segment, through the recently launched gearless model Wego. The scooter market has clocked a CAGR of 15.5% in the past three years, against TVS volume CAGR of 5.5% in the same period, signifying the higher demand growth in the 100cc+ scooter segment. In our view, TVS domestic scooter volume can post 12% CAGR in the coming two years, in line with the domestic scooter market, to reach 0.37mn in FY12E. 3

4 Strong presence in Indonesia in two wheeler segment. Setting up an Engine manufacturing plant Improvement in Indonesian operations: With volume expected to touch an EBITDA breakeven level of 60,000 from FY10E level of 27,000, on a capacity of 300,000, we believe the consolidated operating margin can improve significantly, thus driving the bottom line. Growth from all the Segments The growth is contributed by all segments ranging from mopeds, motorcycle to scooters. The company seems to be doing well in the domestic and export market. The stock level in the market is not very high and the company did get some extra sales due to the new product of Jive, a clutch less bike, which has been launched in only a few selected states and the company plans to launch it all over India by April as the response is very positive. Also, the company had launched an automatic scooter called Wego in a few states. Setting up an Engine manufacturing plant in Karnataka TVS Motors is in preliminary talks with the government officials for establishing an engine manufacturing plant in Karnataka. Automobile manufacturing companies should invest in Karnataka as it offers a good industrial climate comparable to the best in the world. The Karnataka government has 500 acres of land readily available which is currently with the Karnataka Industrial Area Development Board, a government nodal agency to provide infrastructure facilities to industry sector. Also the Karnataka government promises to provide various infrastructure facilities required by the company. TVS to cash in on the monopoly in the moped segment TVS has a 100% market share in the mopeds segment, since Kinetic Motors exited the segment. This business has major presence in South India, a geography which contributes around 80% of the moped volumes of TVS. The company believes the presence of industrial areas in South India like Coimbatore is leading to a growth in the mopeds business, which is considered to be prominently used as a two-wheeler LCV. On the other hand, the company is now targeting north India as well for mopeds, which also has quite a few industrial belts. The company expects the moped sales from rest of India to be at 30% from current 20% by the end of FY

5 Focus on brand building exercise Brand Building focus to sustain The company has been spending whole-heartedly in creating its key model brands. The company plans to capitalize on the sizable success achieved by top brands in the respective segment. The Star, Apache and Jive have done well and all future efforts would be directed towards keeping the brand image live and fresh by introducing newer variants of the existing successful bikes. Access to superior technology adds to the company s strength The Company s R&D team has strong technical talent pool. The company works with leading technological research laboratory and institutions. It has always been at the forefront in bringing new and relevant technology. Focus is given to superior handling and experience while keeping in mind the styling and other aspects that will make the vehicle feature rich. New Finance Arm to boost sales In a bid to improve sales, two-wheeler major TVS Motor Company Ltd (TVSM) is in the process of establishing a finance company. The company which had made investments a few years ago in TVS Finance & Services, has decided to diminish its investments into the latter as per accounting standards with adequate one-time provision, as the latter's net worth completely eroded and its shares had negative valuations. Keeping this in mind, the directors thought it prudent and have accordingly transferred the entire TVS Motor's holding, both equity and preference in TVS Finance & Services, to another fellow subsidiary at a nominal price. 5

6 Company Background I N V E N T U R E. TVS Motor Company has its origin in Sundaram CLayton Limited, Moped Division, started in The factory was started in Hosur, Tamil Nadu in southern India. The first product launched was a 50 cc moped, which appealed to the masses because of its capability to carry two people. In the same location, the same promotors started another company in 1984, in collaboration with Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan, for the manufacture of 100 cc motorcycles under the brand name of Ind-Suzuki Motorcycles. Subsequently in the moped division was bought by Ind Suzuki Motorcycles in 1987 and the company changed its name to TVS Suzuki Ltd. Even though the company started producing all kinds of two wheelers like mopeds, scooters and motorcycles, the collaboration with Suzuki continued for the motorcycles only. The collaboration with Suzuki Motor Corporation ended in 2001 and since then the name of the company changed to TVS Motor Company. When the collaboration ended in 2003, many thought that the company would die a natural death due to the exit of the foreign collaborator. However the company proved its detractors wrong by introducing the TVS Victor and rest as they say is history. The company roped in master blaster Sachin Tendulkar for the promotions and the sales went northwards after that. TVS Company is aiming to capture a quarter of the total two wheeler market in the country. The company now develops all types of two-wheelers through its own in house R&D facility and manufactures in three locations in India, Hosur in Tamil Nadu, Mysore in Karnataka and Baddi in Himachal Pradesh. It has recently started a new manufacturing plant in Indonesia to cater to the South East Asian market. The Chairman and Managing Director of the Company is Mr. Venu who is the grandson of TV Sundaram Iyengar. The company has many first to its credit like the introduction of the first indigenous moped and a 100 cc motorcycle in collaboration with Japanese auto giant Suzuki. The company has products across all categories from premium motorcycles to entry level mopeds 6

7 Business Overview TVS Motor Company has been actively engaged in production of an impressive range of two-wheelers and recently entered into three wheeler segment that have easily captured the hearts of the consumers of all generations and all segments of the society. Product Portfolio varies from mopeds to motorcycles The company has three bikes in the entry-level category including the Sport, Start City and the newly-launched clutch less Jive, and two bikes in the above 150cc category, the Apache RTR 160 and the Apache RTR 180. Jive was launched recently in the Tamil Nadu market and will be rolled out in the rest of the country very soon. The company also plans to launch new variants of its existing bikes. They will be launching mostly new variants this year. They may also introduce a new model towards the end of The company has a good-enough portfolio with six bikes, two scooters and two mopeds in its stable. Sixty per cent of their sales are in the 2-Stroke category, but now they expect the ratio between it and 4-Stroke engines to be 50:50 by the year end. Their main business comes from the sale of two wheelers and now the company states that three-wheeler business would add Rs400 crores to the top line of the company in 18 months. TVS MOTORS Two Wheelers Three Wheelers Motorcycle Scooters Mopeds Auto-Rickshaw 7

8 Existing Verticals TVS has enjoyed a steady growth since its inception. It has continuously expanded and diversified, and brought in new verticals within its fold. Today it boasts a strong presence in the manufacturing of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, auto components and computer peripherals. The company is also involved in the distribution of heavy commercial vehicles, cars, finance and insurance. With such a portfolio, the company contributes a lot to Indian economy. Segment Models Premium Apache RTR Flame Executive Victor Upper end Victor Edge Economy New Product Launches Star Star City Jive Wego Source: Company 8

9 Industry overview - Automobile Two wheelers Industry Two wheelers contribute near about 76% of volumes to the industry India ranks 12th in the list of world s top 15 automakers. The Two wheelers industry overall dominates the total auto mobiles industry in India. The Indian two wheeler market has a size of over Rs 100,000 million. Two-wheeler segment is one of the most important components of the automobile sector that has undergone significant changes due to shift in policy environment. The two-wheeler industry has been in existence in the country since Automobile is one of the largest industries in global market. Being the leader in product and process technologies in the manufacturing sector, it has been recognized as one of the drivers of economic growth. During the last decade, well directed efforts have been made to provide a new look to the automobile policy for realizing the sector's full potential for the economy. The Total Market share of two wheelers automobiles industry is about 76% in volume terms. The automotive sector is one of the core industries of the Indian economy. The de-licensing of the sector in 1991 and the subsequent opening up of 100 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) through the automatic route marked the beginning of a new era for the Indian automotive industry. Since then almost all the global major automobile players have set up their facilities in India taking the level of production of vehicles from 2 million in 1991 to million in The industry is estimated to be a US$ 34 billion industry with exports contributing 5 per cent of the revenues. The Indian automobile industry has been growing at the rate of per cent over the past five years. According to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization s (UNIDO), international Year book of Industrial Statistics 2008, India ranks 12th in the list of world s top 15 automakers. 9

10 Indian Auto mobile Industry crossed a historic landmark 10 millions vehicles in It consists of three segments viz. scooters, motorcycles and mopeds some categories introduced in the market are a combination of two or more segments e.g. scooterettes and step thru s. The market primarily comprises five players in the two wheeler segment with most of the companies having foreign collaborations with well-known Japanese firms earlier. But most of the companies are now planning 100% subsidiaries in India The Indian auto industry has the potential to emerge as one of the largest in the world. Presently India is Second largest two wheelers market in the world, Fourth largest commercial vehicles market in the world, 11 th largest passengers car in the world and is expected to be seventh market by India is Second largest two wheelers market in the world Automotive Production CAGR Source: - SIAM Segment Share in Total CAGR Two wheeler 74.10% 9.60% Passenger Vehicles 16.30% 19.50% Three Vehicles 4.60% 12.60% Commercial Vehicles 5% 21.80% Source: - SIAM 10

11 Auto Mobile Two Wheelers Segments:- Two wheelers Industry Motor Cycles (76%) Scooters (16%) Mopeds (7.6%) Electric Two wheelers (0.4%) Economy Segment {Entry Segment} Geared Scooters Executive Segment Ungeared Scooters Premium Segment Market Leaders in Each Segment Motor cycles (79%) Scooters (15%) Mopeds (6%) Leaders Hero Honda (58%) Bajaj Auto (24%) TVS Motors (8%) Leaders HMSI (58%) TVS Motors (22%) Hero Honda (12%) 11 TVS Motors (99%) Kinetic Motors (0.5%)

12 Company s Sales Snapshot. Company s Motorcycle Sales Tend on Quarter Basis TVS s Motorcycle: Volume, Growth and Market Share Source: IGSL Research Company s Scooters Sales Tend on Quarter Basis TVS s Scooters: Volume, Growth and Market Share Source: IGSL Research 12

13 Future Outlook A g e Young Population in India India's Population > Percentage Source: Company India has the youngest population in the world with 70% under 35 years and hence the target audience for two wheeler industry is huge. A survey conducted by a leading research house states that 140mn people will be added to the working population in the next 5 years time. Increasing household incomes and launch of more stylish and fuel-efficient motorcycles will continue to trigger the growth for the sector. Hence middle income groups will be the major targets. Also, two wheelers will always be preferred over the cars as the ownership and maintenance cost of car is 4 times of a two wheeler. There are high hopes on recently showcased auto clutch motorcycle Jive and its new scooter called Wego. Its estimated there exists over enthusiasm towards the above two products. Recently the company has entered into the three wheeler segment, it is expected that 50 percent of the market share of the threewheeler segment will be occupied bye the company in three years In the coming three years, the company would become a dominant player in the three-wheeler segment. At the end of three years, 15 percent of the company's revenues will come from the threewheeler segment. The company is looking at future products in line with changing socio economic scenario s by looking at more fuel efficient engines and electric vehicles. Although these products may represent a huge R&D cost at present, the payoff in the log term is expected to be huge. Long term growth prospect for the industry is very attractive and TVS Motors poised to grow ahead of market through strong innovation and faster upgrades. Going ahead, the company will have to counter intensive competitive pressures, particularly from Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda, which are launching new bikes and reducing in their bid to boost volumes. We believe that the overall will remain challenging for the company, in terms or price competition. 13

14 Investment Concerns Successful Products from Competitor Successful product from the competitors could lead to higher than expected margin pressure. Also in a strong business environment, when industry motorcycle volumes surged by 39%, TVS motors volumes rose by a meager 4.5% leading to loss in market share. Although, the company has gained market share in the scooters and mopeds segment, but increasing competition from Honda and M&M might restrict further growth. Increase in the Raw material price would harm the margin growth ahead As steel is one the main raw material used for the manufacturing the two wheelers motorcycles. The raw material cost contributes to 78% of the total expenditure. So rising steel price may put some pressure on margins. Going forward if there is a steep rise in steel & other metal prices the company may not be able to raise price and pass it on to the customer, as this could hit volumes. Low Profit Margins The Net Profit Margin of the company was just 1% in 2009, which is very low compared to its competitors i.e. Hero Honda s Net Profit Margin is 9.46% and that of Bajaj Auto Limited is 7.22%. Though the company is currently concentrating on increasing their market share, hence using penetrating strategy, but the competition may further add on the pressure on their profitability which may lead to bringing the profit margins to zero or in minus. Poor acceptance of Jive & Wego Poor acceptance of their new products launched, may lead to poor volumes further leading to lower sales which will affect the top-line of the company. Losing out the chance of incremental market share 14

15 Profit & Loss Statement Rs Crs Particulars FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Net Sales Other Income Total Revenue Expenditure Raw Material Costs % of Sales 76% 76% 75% 74% 74% Other Expenses % of Sales 23% 21% 19% 20% 20% Miscellaneous expenditure % of Sales 0.06% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04% 0.04% EBIDTA Depreciation EBIT Interest PBT Tax PAT Source: IGSL Research 15

16 Balance Sheet Rs Crs Particulars FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Sources of Funds Share Capital Reserves Secured Loan Unsecured Loan Total Liabilities Application of Funds Net Block Capital WIP Investment Current assets Current Liability Net current Assets Misc expense Net deferred Tax Total Assets Source: IGSL Research 16

17 Cash Flow Rs Crs Particulars FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Profit before Tax & Extraordinary Items ADD: Depreciation ADD: Interest (net) ADD: Others Op. Profit before Working Capital Changes Changes IN WC Direct Tax Paid Cash Flow From Operating Activities Cash Used in Investing Activities Net Cash Used in Financing Activities Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash and Cash Equivalent Cash and Cash Equivalents at Beginning of the year Cash and Cash Equivalents at End of the year

18 Ratio Analysis FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Rs Crs Basic Ratio EPS (RS) EPS Growth -52.3% -2.17% % 40.87% 19.58% ROCE 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 11.6% 12.6% RONW Liquidity Ratio Current Ratio Turnover Ratio 3.9% 3.8% 9.6% 12.0% 12.5% Debtor (days) Inventory (days) Creditor ( days) Working Capital ( days) Leverage Ratio Debt Equity Profitability Ratio PAT Margin% EBIDTA% Valuation Ratio P/E Source IGSL Research 18

19 Peer Group Analysis TVS Motors Hero Honda Bajaj Auto December 2009 Sales Operating Profit PAT Operating Profit Margins 4.79% PAT Margins 2.19% FY09 Sales Operating Profit PAT Operating Profit Margins 2.14% PAT Margins 1% EPS (Rs) Rs Crs Valuations CMP Market Cap P/E Key Ratios Debt/Equity (FY09) ROCE 5% RONW 4% Per Share Data FV week high week low Source: IGSL Research 19

20 Financial Charts EBIDTA E 2012E PAT E 2012E 20

21 Names Designation Id. Contact Number Nagji Rita CMD - - SALES Ravinder Kasliwal Head Institutional Sales ravinder.kasliwal@inveturegrowth.com /66 Dealing Vinit Rita Institutional Dealer vinit.rita@inventuregrowth.com /66 Rashda Ainapore Institutional Dealer rashda.ainapore@inventuregrowth.com /66 Puja Shah Institutional Dealer puja.shah@inventuregrowth.com /66 Research Denil Savla Research Analyst denil.savla@inventuregrowth.com * 582 Sheetal Nirmal Research Analyst sheetal.nirmal@inventuregorwth.com * 579 Pankti Shah Research Analyst pankti.shah@inventuregrowth.com * 583 Divya Kant Research Analyst divya.kant@inventuregrowth.com * 581 Anshuman Jain Research Analyst anshuman.jain@inventuregrowth.com Sanjeev Haria Research Analyst sanjeev.haria@inventuregrowth.com Sibayan Banerjee Technical Analyst sibayan.banerjee@inventuregrowth.com Ashok Patel Technical Analyst ashok.patel@inventuregrowth.com Madhu Patel Technical Analyst madhu.patel@inventuregrowth.com Disclaimer This Document has been prepared by Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd. The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Inventure s assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Neither Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd nor any of its employees or associates accepts any liability whatsoever direct or indirect that may arise from the use of information herein and shall not be responsible for its completeness and accuracy. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This document is for circulation only Visit us at Please send your Feed Back to igslresearch@inventuregrowth.com Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd Corporate Office: - Viraj Tower, 2 nd Floor, Near Landmark, Western Express Highway, Andheri East, Mumbai Tel.: , Fax: