SMMT The British International Motor Show. The EU Automotive Components Industry Key issues

Transcription

1 SMMT The British International Motor Show The EU Automotive Components Industry Key issues Lars Holmqvist, CEO CLEPA 23 July 2008, London

2 Facts about CLEPA 3000 member companies in total, representing 2500 SMEs 3 Million employees 300 billion Euro sales

3 CLEPA, the European umbrella membership organisation for the global automotive supply industry 13 National Trade Associations 82 Corporate Members

4 MEMBER ASSOCIATIONS (National Associations, Associate, Affiliate) ACMA (India) ACS (Slovenia) AFIA (Portugal) AGORIA (Belgium) ANFIA (Italy) AUTIG (Denmark) BWD Automotive EUROBAT (Brussels) EUROFORGE (Germany) EUWA (Italy) EWFA (Belgium) EXIDE FIEV (France) ILEA (Luxembourg) MAJOSZ (Hungary) RAI (The Nederlands) SAS (Sweden) SERNAUTO (Spain) SINDIPEÇAS (Brazil) SMMT (United Kingdom) SUPPLYON (Germany) TAYSAD (Turkey) TecCom VDA (Germany) ZVEI

5 CORPORATE MEMBERS Advanced Labels Technologies Aisin Akebono Brakes Arvin Meritor Autoliv Behr Bekaert BOS Bosal Bosch BPW Brembo Britax Brose Fahrzeugteile Cardone CIE Automotive CIMOS, Slovenia Continental AG Delphi Denso Dorel France Dunlop Tech Eberspächer Emitec Faurecia Federal-Mogul Fraunhofer Gates GE Lighting GKN Haldex Hayes Lemmerz Hella Honeywell Honsel HUF Klarius Knorr-Bremse Koito Kongsberg Auto. Kostal JTEKT Europe Lear LuK Maflow Magneti Marelli Mahle Mann & Hummel Mark IV-Dayco Mira Mitsubishi Electric 3M MS Motor Service International NGK Spark Plug NISSENS A/S OSRAM Philips Pilkington Proliance NRF Reflexite Saint-Gobain Sekurit Sanden of Europe SENSATA SKF Sogefi Takata Petri Trident Componets Group Tenneco ThyssenKrupp TMD Friction Services Tokai Rika Toyota-Boshoku Europe TRW Valeo VDI / VDE IT Visteon WABCO Web BV Webasto Zanini Industries ZF Friedrichshafen ZF Trading

6 Facts about the automotive suppliers 75% of the value of the car comes from suppliers 50% of the R and D spending from suppliers A majority of patents are from suppliers Some examples Electronic stability programmes High pressure injection systems Diesel particulate filters Navigation systems Stop / start Hybrid systems

7 Automotive industry major contributor to growth, employment and wealth total motor vehicles (worldwide) Mn units 73,1 27% of worldwide MV production for EU 27 total (EU 25) auto. employment in EU = 12.1 million whereof suppliers: 4.8 million 24 billion in R&D spending tax revenue of vehicles BN 381 = 3.5% of EU 15 GDP Source: ACEA 2007 figures

8 Source: VDA World Motor Vehicle Production Passenger cars Jan April EU 25 16,230 (+2%) 17,241 (+6%) 17,600 (+2%) (2008) Russia 1,176 (+10%) 1,290 (+10%) 467(+18%) NAFTA 1) 15,252 (-3%) 15,023 (-2%) 5,714 (-12%) Mercosur 1) 2,880 (+8%) 3,311(+15%) 1,513 (+22%) USA 1) 10,798 (-6%) 10,474 (-3%) 3,962 (-13%) China 4,302 (+37%) 5,384 (+25%) 1,990 (+13%) India 1) 1,473 (+17%) 1,714 (+16%) 814 (+12%) Japan 9,755(+8%) 9,945 (+2%) 3,528 (+6%) 1) until May

9 Source: VDA World Motor Vehicle Production Commercial vehicles Jan - April EU 25 2,383 (-1%) 2,558 (+7%) 2,656 (+4%) (2008) Russia 331 (+16%) 377(+14%) 126 (+9%) NAFTA 1) 626 (+11%) 405 (-35%) 155 (-21%) Mercosur 1) 163 (-6%) 207 (+27%) 99 (+31%) USA 1) 462 (+9%) 279 (-40%) 105 (-23%) China 2,978 (+38%) 3,507 (+18%) 1,448 (+15%) India 1) 485 (+28%) 538 (+11%) 245 (+5%) Japan 1,729 (-3%) 1,652 (-4%) 570 (+8%) 1) until May

10 Automotive production update US light vehicle production declined 18.8% from year ago 4 th lowest output month over 10 years North American light vehicle production in June 2008 fell 13.70% from year ago Year-to-date production is down 1.77m units versus 2007 Source: CSM

11 Sustained Growth Momentum Global Economy 4.9% growth in 2007, despite weakening US Economy (IMF) 4+% growth expected during the next decade (Global Insight) US EU Japan China India Russia Brazil Source: Eurofer 4.1

12 Growing challenges All-round soaring commodity prices adversely affecting production: Crude oil now at unprecedented 145 per barrel Electricity prices increased by approx. 60% since Jan 2005 Hot wide strip steel risen by 41%, aluminium by 55% and copper by 174%, since beg 2005 Steel BHP Billiton agreed with Baosteel on an 97% increase from last year s price of iron-ore, ALSO further consolidation (BHP Billiton/Rio Tinto)

13 Expected growth in steel, with rising prices World crude steel apparent demand - mt Steel consumption per capita, 2004 kg/y av. 5-7% / y av. 5% / y Growth in the developed regions av. 1% / y Maturity in the developed regions Growth in the developing regions India South America South Africa CIS China EU25 USA Japan Taiwan Korea Source: IISI

14 Emergence of BRICs By 2040, BRICs economies will be bigger than the G6 economies Chinese economy will surpass US economy in 2039, in 30 years, Indian economy will be next to US and China Brics vs G6 Largest Economies in ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 BRICs G6 2025: BRICs economies over half as large as the G6 By 2040: BRICs overtake the G ,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Ch US In Jpn Br Russ UK Ger Fr It Source: Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Report Source: Goldman Sachs

15 Increase in European Regulations - (all requiring time, effort and added cost) Tackling Climate Change Objective: by 2020, a 20% cut in CO2 emissions, 20% increase in energy efficiency and 20% re-newables in energy production (inc.10% biofuels) EC Pedestrian Safety Phase II - adopted in June in line with the GTR. Mandating Brake Assist Systems in 2009 End of Life Vehicles Directive - list of exemptions on ban of heavy metals updated - problem: lead in solders REACH compliance Euro 5/6 - agreed - application 2009 implementing measures further discussed: OBD, access to repair information, replacement parts, Selective Catalytic reduction, measurement of fine particulates Euro 6 stage for heavy duty vehicles under discussion

16 Commission adopted Communication to reduce CO2 emissions Commission presented draft legislation to implement its new strategy on limiting car s CO2 emission to 120g/km by 2012 through an integrated approach Mr. Guido Sacconi, MEP, CO2 rapporteur proposes: 95g/km by 2020; phasing-in and eco-innovation scenarios to the EP Environmental Committee, under the EU co-decision procedure likely agreement between France and Germany, under the French Presidency Parliament plenary to vote on the proposal 2012: DEADLINE CO2 LEGISLATION

17 CO2 LEGISLATION CLEPA Position CLEPA actively involved in the debate with EU key players CLEPA working with ACEA to meet proposed targets We support phase-in period, for technology application In favour of reward system for eco-innovations Compensation payments should be pooled into fund for R&D car fuel efficiency, strengthening competitiveness, innovation and employment Our members have the technologies to help the car makers reduce CO2 emissions

18 Suppliers and VMs must stay on the right side of two huge coming shifts: climate change, CO2 legislation, fuel prices change in the type of car to cheap and cheerful, more fuel efficient and smaller cars, increasing nos. from Asia Defence mechanisms: concentrate on our premium segment lead in innovative technologies focus on developing new types of powertrains and electronics dramatically increase R&D investment improve all-round skills retain training centres of excellence enhance education and competence

19 Industry in evolution Over the past decades, the European automotive sector has shifted from an industrial to a knowledge-based industry From being a low-skilled sector, the automotive industry is gradually changing to a more high-skilled labour force, with increased emphasis on innovation The growing demand for skilled workers is especially significant for the automotive suppliers, who have taken more responsibility in areas such as design and development, through continuing outsourcing Jobs that previously did not demand more than basic skills now require a certain level of literacy, numeracy, language and IT skills

20 Flexicurity Four policy components: (27 June 2007 EC Communication) 1. Flexible contractual arrangements: modern labour law, collective agreements, work organisation 2. Lifelong learning strategies: to ensure continue adaptability and employability of workers with a budget of 7 billion for Effective active labour market policies: reduce employment spells and ease transitions to new jobs 4. Modern social security systems: adequate income support and facilitate labour market mobility

21 Factors for Survival To apply our R&D to various future sources of energy, supporting a long-term sustainable technology - Fossil fuels could last another 40 years, with tar and shale oil reserves lasting another 40 years Securing more funding from the EU Framework Programme EIB offer Product Development total lending capacity of 10 bn Strengthening of human potential in R&D, through improved and intensified education and skills training Overcoming trade barriers (TBTs & NTBs) in interesting new markets, knowledge transfer

22 Factors for Survival Better regulations and global harmonisation (CARS 21 Mid Term Review) Enhanced appropriation through fair and equitable OEMs Terms & Conditions(1 st meetings in Sept / Oct 2008) Continuing and enhancing good partnerships : JAMA, JAPIA, MEMA, OESA,ACEA, FIGIEFA Consumer confidence in the safety and sustainability of EU products creating sound strategy

23 Future Outlook The automotive supply industry is a growth market and the Europeans suppliers are expanding into the emerging markets Winners are: leaders in innovations, with both short & long-term focus Outlook: EU auto suppliers creating sustainable future, boosting competitiveness, as fuel efficiency becomes a decisive and competitive factor, with increased global concerns about climate change

24 Thank you for your attention!