Autonomous Driving: A Paradigm Shift in the Automotive Industry

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1 Technical Report Autonomous Driving: A Paradigm Shift in the Automotive Industry Executive Adviser, ESPEC CORP. Visiting Professor, Institute of Innovation for Future Society, Nagoya University, Dr. Noboru Sato Abstract Electrification and autonomous driving are causing a large commotion in the automotive industry. Japan has been on the leading edge of electrification from 1990 and onward, leading the world in advancements from development to commercialization. On the other hand, it is hard to say that Japan has superiority regarding autonomous driving. Currently, Germany s presence is becoming noticeably large in autonomous driving with regards to technical development and legislation, and from the aspect of building infrastructure. With full autonomous driving potentially becoming implemented in 2020 and beyond, Japan absolutely cannot fall behind in aggressive enhancement of development speeds, or with regards to legislation and international standards. 1. The Autobahn: Building Germany's Automotive Transportation Culture Due to the effects of the Great Depression in 1929, it is said that 6 million people became unemployed in Germany. During his election campaign from 1932 to 1933, Adolf Hitler of the Nazi Party vowed that his citizens will be granted work and bread, which the German citizens showed a lot of gratitude for. And this became the motive for the construction of the German Autobahn. On September 23, 1933, a ground-breaking ceremony with the presence of Hitler himself marked the start of Autobahn construction. The first section was completed in 1935, with great results, having decreased unemployed persons to 350,000 people at that time. Before construction, there was an emphasis placed on a construction design standard based not on simplistic methods, but rather use of concrete which excels in long-lasting durability as well as on a way to harmonize the road with natural scenery. As a result, Germany s transportation culture developed into what it is today, and in addition, embodied the development of performance improvement and improved safety in automobiles. (Fig. 1) Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

2 1943, A VW vehicle at that time Fig. 1 Creation of History and Culture: The German Autobahn and the Automobile The entire length is approximately 13,000 km, the length of all federal roads is approximately 40,000 km. Together these are called Bundesautobahn, which literally means "Federal Auto Track". 2. A Paradigm Shift in Automobiles Currently, even if one looks at the automotive industry from a global standpoint, we are about to meet a historical turning point. And the two wheels on this axis of history are electrification and autonomous driving, as shown in Fig. 2. In these two fields, technological evolution is extremely fas t, and therefore a paradigm shift in the global automotive industry is being introduced. Fig.2 A Paradigm (framework) shift in automobiles Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

3 In the former field of electrification, the Japanese automotive industry has been earnestly engaging in technical development for over 25 years and is continually in the lead. However, 2018 greets us with yet another turning point. That is to say that new regulations in California, USA for Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) are moving to the next stages, and furthermore, China s NEV (New Energy Vehicle) regulations will be fully implemented. In particular, there will be a situation where Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHV) and Electric Vehicles (EV) will appear in the market all at once. Therefore, there may be a change in the power structure regarding electric vehicles in 2018 in the global market. With that, on the other hand, what about the status of the autonomous driving market? In this market, Japan does not have the same leading predominance as it has had with the electrification of vehicles. Not only that, but the current order sees Japan trying not to fall behind, following those in the West. The three main points regarding autonomous driving are as shown below. 3. The Merits of Autonomous Driving The merits of autonomous driving are represented across a wide spectrum. These include a reduction of burden on the driver, an idea of a new dimension of being able to use the inside space with various time/space activities, a support function for people who are too weak to go shopping for themselves, and contribution to a decrease in traffic accidents. Of these, being able to decrease traffic accidents is an extremely large contribution. Fig. 3 shows the transition in the number of casualties from traffic accidents in Japan. In line with the growth of motorization, 1970 saw the peak in the number of casualties per year at a number of 16,000 people. Since then, at the time just before 2000, this decreased to as low as 10,000. This is due to the benefit of heightened safety functions in automobiles, and from there, based on widespread use of seat belts, airbags, anti-lock brake systems, as well as others, 2016 saw an even greater reduction, down to less than 4,000 people, which is one-quarter the number at the peak. And thus, we will see a scenario where the autonomous driving will demonstrate its characteristics. In conjunction with the evolution from partial autonomous driving to full autonomous driving, autonomous driving that prevents drivers' errors will deliver the greatest merit in reducing traffic accidents. Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

4 Fig. 3 Trends in the number of casualties from traffic accidents and future measures in Japan 4. The State of Development for Autonomous Driving and Issues in Japan Fig. 4 shows a definition of levels 1 through 4 in autonomous driving, and the roadmap that Japan created as an objective roughly one year ago. Initially, Japan promoted to define the objective to implement the level 4, fully autonomous driving, by However, in August of last year, US Ford Motor Company, German VolksWagen (VW), and German BMW all announced in succession that this will be implemented by 2021 and this had a large effect on the industry. At this point, Japanese stance had appeared to be 4 to 5 years late in comparison with Western product objectives. As a result, we have been driven into a situation where we cannot avoid pulling ahead our objectives. The aggressive commercialization strategies of the US and Europe influence on Toyota Motors, who announced that they would implement fully autonomous driving on highways by 2020 is not small. If the Japanese stance continues to follow in this manner, not only will we not be able to take leadership position, we will no longer have influence on the points of international standards and international normalities, and fall from being in development stages to the trailing group. Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

5 Fig. 4 Continuing schedule acceleration of autonomous vehicles Fig. 4 shows the driving control and safety systems of the flagship model E-Class of German Mercedes Benz, who went through a full-model change in July of It is equipped with three systems to heighten safety, drive pilot system, active lane changing assist, and active emergency stop assist. Accident prevention control systems offer a sense of security, of course with things like track follow-up control system and automatic collision prevention brakes, and even systems regarding things that come onto the road suddenly. Automatic lane changing contributes dramatically to accident prevention as well. Of these, one thing worthy of note is having the first emergency stop function in the world that senses the condition of the driver. This has been implemented to the point where if the driver is unable to drive due to fainting, etc., it will sound an alarm, maintain lane position in traffic, decelerate, and then come to a stop. This function is considered to be beyond the level 2 described above, at the range of level 2.5. Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

6 Of course, we have also experienced the autonomous driving of the E-Class. We have personally experienced the high-precision follow-tracking function, automatic stop and restart function during congestion, and an emergency stop function for when people start crossing in front out of no where, and feel that this car offers functions that can be depended on. We have already reached the stage where we can start making predictions regarding level 4. Our analysis suggests that it is highly likely that level 4 will be achieved in roughly three years by And also, in July of this year, German Audi has stated that they will launch a car with level 3 autonomous driving this fall. The Germans, who had fallen behind Japan in electrification, have put their dignity on the line in accelerating the development and implementation of autonomous driving. What has lead up to this first in industry advanced trailblazing technology is that Germans have continued to focus on safety. The Autobahn that has no fundamental speed limit creating a high speed roadway culture brings about accidents and damage from accidents and this has accelerated the development of protective systems. 5. Daily Progressing Industry Wide Partnership and Cooperation between Different Industries In the field of autonomous driving, cooperation is advancing in an accelerated manner, in a way that has never been seen in the automotive industry. As Fig. 5 symbolizes, even when considering major items, significant and furthermore complex cooperation is progressing. Even Toyota crossed over the framework of group systems and launched cooperation with US based Nvidia, who specializes in graphics processing units (GPU: a semiconductor specifically for graphics processing). Honda, who has obsessed over original development in the electrification field (in cooperation with GM for fuel-cell vehicles), is creating a composition of cooperation with SoftBank for artificial intelligence (AI), US Google affiliate Waymo for autonomous driving, and also with Nvidia. In the future, Nvidia-centered cooperation will most likely expand further. Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

7 Fig. 5 An example of an alliance for autonomous driving that crosses over industry frameworks In addition, on May 25th in 2017, Nippon Keizai Shimbun newspaper reported that Renesas Electronics will be cooperating with Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor Company Limited (Hebei Province: an independent automaker shipping over one million vehicles per year) in autonomous driving and EV, etc. They report that joint development teams will be started for all technical fields, and engineers from both companies will engage in research and development at the Great Wall Motor Company location in Hebei Province. By leveraging their strength of experience in a wide range of on-board semiconductors, Renesas will promote a relationship with this finished auto manufacturer. As background, this may be a result of Renesas becoming impatient with Japanese automakers not showing a high evaluation of them and not making any progress regarding cooperation. This state of affairs where the Chinese automotive industry is already participating in the leading edge autonomous driving field completely differs from other patterns to date. In the field of Eco cars, the scenario of development is that Japan and the US pioneered its development, which was received and followed suit by Europe and South Korea, and afterwards continued on to the Chinese, but with regards to autonomous driving, the flow of events will not progress in the same manner. Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)

8 The Chinese often fall behind Japan, US, and Europe for technology development level, but at the very least, the Chinese not taking a significant delay at the starting point of this field provides proof that the Chinese automotive industry is starting to show some strength. Because of these reasons, Japan cannot fall behind the West. With regards to advanced technology in autonomous driving, the method for achieving possession of strong intellectual property, acquiring international standards, and leadership for the creation of rules has become a large element in controlling the competitive forces in the automotive industry. Test Navi Report No. 25 (99th Issue)