E-Mobility and its future effect on demand and flexibility

Transcription

1 E-Mobility and its future effect on demand and flexibility Chances and challenges 2035 from a transmission system operator s perspective 1st E-Mobility Power System Integration Symposium Berlin, 23 October 2017 Dr. Roland Bauer, Dr. Georgios Papaafthymiou

2 Agenda 1. Introduction 1. Key Questions 2. Forecast methodologies 3. Some thoughts on EVs relevance for the energy system in Germany 2. Developments in other countries 1. Status-quo and targets of EV uptake 2. Status-quo and targets of charging infrastructure 3. Conclusion

3 Objectives: give a view on effects due to the surge of EVs from a TSO perspective and widen the focus to different countries Will the energy system and its current infrastructure in Germany limit a large scale roll-out of e-mobility? Can we identify necessary technological requirements resulting from a large scale EV roll-out? Do we see opportunities for e-mobility to contribute to cost-efficiency of the future energy system? Other business models?

4 The energy development paths form a wide spectrum Looking at the future as a part of 50Hertz Energiewende Outlook 2035, five energy transition scenarios were developed, all of which are realistic. Policy objectives are achieved through Policy objectives are not achieved due to Prosumer oriented energy transition Energy transition according to the German renewable energy act Competitive energy transition Delayed energy transition Incomplete energy transition a strong buildup of PV systems. a combination of various technologies. large wind energy systems in profitable locations.... planned implementation of various technologies is delayed. insufficient acceptance due to, for example, high costs, prevents a complete energy transition.

5 ,0 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 12,3 2,2 19,3 32,8 21,0 12,1 9 22,6 9 21,1 30,2 29,5 28,8 25,0 9,4 9,4 9,4 9,2 9,2 9,2 9,4 19, ,1 13, Prosumer Energiewende Fortschreibung Energiewende Wettbewerbliche Energiewende Verzögerte Energiewende Unvollständige Energiewende 46,8 40,8 168,3 157,6 94,4 173,3 88,06 152,6 76, ,2 62,13 58,69 55,55 64,34 61,08 58,18 11,4 70,36 36,6 Prosumer Energiewende Fortschreibung Energiewende Wettbewerbliche Energiewende Verzögerte Energiewende Unvollständige Energiewende 148,5 68,1 63,3 20,7 20,9 12,7 125,5 25,9 123,1 89,4 and the methodological approach provides detailed results Scenarios Prosumer oriented energy transition Energy transition according to the renewable energy act Competitive energy transition Scenario Development Quantitative Assumptions Investment costs for generation technologies Demand (including allocation) Power from renewable energy systems (including allocation) Implementation of Simulations Power plant investment simulation Market simulation Interpretation of Results Power plant fleet Power plant usage Delayed energy transition Incomplete energy transition DSM Prices for Primary energy and CO2 Further assumptions Grid simulation Grid expansion Consistent set of assumptions per scenario 5

6 German energy mix will change dramatically till 2035 GER 2015 (Total 653 TWh) GER 2035* (Total 593 TWh) +116% 65% -52% +24% 42% -100% 30% 12% 9% 20% 15% 0% -38% 5% 3% Gas Coal *50Hertz Energiewende Outlook, EEG-Scenario Nuclear Renewables Other thermal 6

7 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Germany Mio. t CO So far no improvements in sectors mobility and private households Ziel 2030 Energiewirtschaft Haushalte Verkehr Industrie und Gewerbe Landwirtschaft übrige Emissionen Ziel Reduction until 2030 realistic? Potential shift into electricity sector Mio. t Quellen: Umweltbundesamt Januar 2016; Klimaschutzplan 2050 der Bundesregierung November

8 Through the electrification of the heat and transportation sectors, electricity consumption will rise in the long-term Electricity consumption increases despite improvements in efficiency due to the increase in heating pumps and the increased use of electric cars Electricity consumption Heating pumps E-Mobility Electricity consumption in Germany 2035 ( green scenarios) [TWh]

9 We currently make the following observations around the development of electric vehicles Worldwide subsidy programmes for EVs Global EV Sales predicted to rise Li battery pack prices will drop another 75% by 2030 Strict fuel & emissions regulations 9

10 These were the 50Hertz assumptions made for the following analyses 10 Mio. EVs by 2035 in Germany: Average EV range: 500 km Average EV mileage: 10,000 km/a Average consumption: 15 kwh/ 100km Average battery capacity: 75 kwh Average yearly electricity consumption: 1,500 kwh / EV * a Very simplified approach 10

11 Energy consumption of EVs is insignificant compared to the total energy system [TWh] 2035 (10 Mil. EVs) [TWh] TWh * Impact of sector coupling Industry Services Households Others Heat pumps e-mobility TWh ** * Based on Umweltbundesamt, excl. grid losses ** Based on NEP 2035B, excl. grid losses High uncertainty on amount of EVs in 2035 in Germany Altogether, the relevance of EV power consumption on overall electricity demand is expected to stay low. 11

12 Peak load capacities of EVs is limited compared to the total energy system, too Power load in GW Peak load and GW 7GW e-mobility Heat pumps Others Households Services Industry EV charging load profile contains 20% flexible devices (smart strategy) and 80% simple charging behaviour (work & home charging)* Peak of EV load (7 GW) and overall electricity peak demand (84 GW) during a week day in coldest winter week Flexibility in the system can limit increase in peak load Based on NEP2035B with scaled EV amount, incl. DSM * EV load curve in NEP was contributed by Fraunhofer ISI Overall German peak demand affected by Evs with smart charging is limited The combination of the flexibilities from Evs, heating pumps and small strorages is able to potentially reduce peak demand 12

13 Conclusion: Relevance for the German electricity grid infrastructure Electricity consumption of EVs is low compared to total energy consumption (<3%) in 2035 EVs also could have a limited impact on peak demand (~8%), especially with smart charging in place and when looked at in combination with flexibility of heat pumps and other measures. However, smart controlled charging is necessary as there is potential for negative influence on peak demand otherwise this will be even more the case when looking at local low voltage level EVs are expected to have a low impact on the overall energy system in Germany in

14 Electric vehicles as power storage devices cannot cover long-term storage issues MW Wind feed-in Germany d 10 Mio. EV (~ MW, ~ MWh/day) Pumped storage Goldisthal (1.060 MW, MWh) 5d Amongst the ancillary services in Germany, Balancing is by far the most important category (from a financial perspective) 14

15 Balancing is the larges of all ancillary services markets in Germany Yearly Market Volume [meur] Balancing Black Start Capacity Voltage Control Amongst the ancillary services in Germany, Balancing is by far the most important category (from a financial perspective) Source: Monitoring Report BNetzA

16 Market volumes of balancing market are generally declining primary control is stable Capacity payments [Mil. EUR] % -58% -1% Within balancing, primary control is most attractive for battery storage as it is technically most suitable Already some large stationary batteries in the market, number will significantly increase in the near future Secondary control is a potential market in the midterm 0 Tertiary Control Secondary Control Primary Control Market Volume 2015: ~265 Mil. EUR; 10 Mil. EVs with 90% availability 29 EUR/EV*a 16

17 Flexibility cheap alternatives to storage do exist Additional costs/savings of one GW flexibility options in 2023 (43% RES in DE / 22% RES in EU) Mio. /GW/a Power-to-Gas Additional costs Batteries Pumped Hydro Savings Interconnectors Additional CHP flexibility Source: Agora (2014) Electricity Storage in the German Energy Transition Additional DSM Short storage 1 hour Short storage 8 hours Long-term storage 720 hours Storage will probably not be a game changer Long-term storage is far away from profitability even with significantly reduced storage costs Short-term storage will be driven less by flexibility than other applications 17

18 Conclusion Infrastructure will not limit e-mobility on TSO level, however, limitations at DSO level especially in residential areas might arise Electricity markets will not hold major business opportunities, but probably there will be players coordinating EV charging behaviour in the future Ancillary services are limited; flexibility is currently not that scarce (in Germany) and is not expected to be Services around the coordination of EV batteries / optimised charging will be critical up from a certain scale; who are going to be the players that offer these kind of services? Surge of EVs will not be limited by energy system, but energy system will also not offer major business opportunities to e-mobility 18

19 The price spreads in Germany are expected to decrease further Day-night spread 2009 Day-night spread 2016 Day-night spread 2035 Summer 1 Spot Market Price [ /MWh] /MWh /MWh /MWh Winter 2 Spot Market Price [ /MWh] /MWh /MWh /MWh Smaller price spreads because of PV generation at day time reduced attractiveness of storage (even pumped storage) significantly in recent years ( 1 ) average day ahead prices from April to September in Germany and from ( 2 ) October to March 19

20 the same applies for countries in Europe Day-night spread Spain Day-night spread Great Britain Summer 1 Spot Market Price [ /MWh] /MWh Spot Market Price [GBP/MWh] GBP/MWh Winter 2 Spot Market Price [ /MWh] /MWh Spot Market Price [GBP/MWh] GBP/MWh ( 1 ) average day ahead prices from April to September and from ( 2 ) October to March 20

21 Part II - DEVELOPMENTS IN OTHER COUNTRIES

22 Status-quo 2 Million: global electric vehicle uptake Source: Global EV Outlook 2017 (IEA) *BEV: Battery Electric Vehicles *PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles The rapid electric vehicle uptake is facilitated by support policies deployed by governments and cities to reap their multiple benefits in the fields of transport decarbonisation, air pollution reduction, and energy efficiency and security. 22

23 Case studies: status quo and targets in Qatar and Japan Qatar: 2022 and 2030 targets for EV/PHV penetration Qatar currently has less than some hundreds of EV/PHVs on the roads Qatari government set-up Green Car Initiative as joint effort of the ministries of transport and energy as well as the state utilities provider Kahramaa Aim to replace conventional vehicles with EVs and EHVs so that it makes up 4% of the total number of cars on the road by 2022 Target for 2030 is to reach 10% Japan: 2020 and 2030 targets for EV/PHV penetration Japan currently has over 150 thousand EV/PHVs in stock (2016) Aim is1 Million EV/PHV ownership by 2020 By 2030, target is 20-30% of EV/PHV sales volume for new passenger cars Percentage of new car sales to 1 Million EV/PHV ownership* % new sales to be EV/PHV 16% ownership to be EV/PHV Approx. 4-6% of new car sales in 2020 Source: Report by The Study Group on the Road Map for EVs and PHVs (METI) *Based on comparison with IEA scenarios: IEAETP (Energy Technology Perspectives)

24 Case studies: strategies for rollout of charging stations in Qatar and Japan Qatar: growth concentrated in city, but challenges for residential charging Most residents live in Greater Doha: there will be a high concentration of EVs in the capital However, over 80% are expatriates in rental properties: lack of willingness or capability to install charging stations in their homes. Not typical for apartment complexes to have charging facilities Public charging catering for range anxiety: in Qatar, the furthest point from Greater Doha is ~200 km (Wakrah to Al-Ruwais) Qatar works towards the deployment of charging infrastructure to supply sufficient power to the vehicles expected to be deployed, mainly through support of research activities. Japan: roadmap with specific actions for installation of charging stations Specific targets and action plans have been developed to support the integration of 30% EHV/PHV by 2030 based on detailed analysis. Public charging Basic charging On-route charging: Fast charging Destination charging: Convenient top-up charging Home charging: Slow charging Workplace charging: Slow charging 6,100 stations (at 30 km intervals) 20,000 stations by ,000 stations by ,000 stations by

25 Example from Japan: considerations in detailed analyses for rollout of charging stations On-route charging: Long distance driving / fast charging Simulation results: charging station required every 30 km to address range-anxiety Survey of status-quo installation volume and locations, gap analysis (currently 5,971 but geographically concentrated) Development of optimal deployment strategy considering distribution, easy-to-identify location, strategies to avoid congestion at one station Synergy with existing initiatives by and collaboration/coordination with regional authorities Destination charging: Convenient topup charging Priority on large destinations with high number of visitors: large-scale commercial centres, hotels, tourist attractions, leisure centres, public spaces. Survey of status-quo of number of facilities and parking occupancy rate Targets are set for each facility category Home charging: Short distance driving / slow charging Workplace charging: Short/medium distance driving / slow charging Survey of status-quo of number of detached houses and communal living quarters: parking availability, timing of new construction and renovation Targets are set for installation, and recommend realistic implementation methods Provision of information about costs and guidelines for installation to residents and construction companies Survey of number of vehicle commuters, number of workers per commuting time Targets are set for installation, and recommend realistic implementation methods Provision of information about benefits for businesses to invest in charging infrastructure 25

26 Case study: value of TSO leading investment in charging infrastructure Scope Analysis of current and future business cases for charging infrastructure in BE Identification of Elia s role in electric mobility value chain Build-up of argumentation for the proposed role Take Aways There is a certain political willingness to increase EV uptake on EU & BE levels Two main barriers for EV uptake: Range Anxiety & Upfront Costs No business case now or in a foreseeable near future for TSO investment in Charging Infrastructure Monitor market development of charging infrastructure and steer direction regarding standardization of technologies 26

27 Case study findings: impact of EVs on the power system in Belgium Additional peak load Unmanaged offtake Managed offtake EV uptake rate 9h 14h 19h 24h Time of day 9h 14h 19h 24h Time of day 1% 10% 100% 60 MW 20 MW 600 MW 200 MW 6 GW 2 GW Non negligible impact on grid infrastructure New investments needed Low utilization rate would result in higher tariffs In 10% uptake case, managing the offtake towards a flat profile can save up to 400MW on peak capacity Additional reduction of grid impact can be achieved with a smarter charging algorithm Energy increase Low utilization factor 20% 2% Utilization factor = 20% 5% 50% Peak load increase 27

28 Challenges of PV and EV high penetrations EV once reaching certain penetration levels result in : Power quality issues (low voltage) Feeders overloading (higher demand and current) Problems occurs during evening peak U: 245 V Last house on the feeder 207 V (contractual) 28

29 Challenges of PV and EV high penetrations EV once reaching certain penetration levels result in : Power quality issues (low voltage) Feeders overloading (higher demand and current) Problems occurs during evening peak PV once reaching certain penetration levels result in : 253 V (contractual) Max PV (sunny) Low load 264V Power quality issues (high voltage) Feeders overloading (via reverse flows) Problems occurs during noon U: 245 V 250V Last house on the feeder V

30 Conclusions Globally, EHV/PHV uptake is on an increasing trend Increased uptake goes hand-in-hand with availability of charging infrastructure Countries with targets supported by concrete measures for implementation of both of these are leading development Grid operator s interest is to anticipate the impact on grid capacity requirements and operation security: so far major impacts not observed but Important to identify potential threats for your system: Elia Group studies demonstrate analysis methods Threats will be mitigated if the charging of EVs is controlled: R&D projects provide solutions Synergy with PV growth should be considered Grid operators can start with asking basic questions to survey the status-quo and gain insights into potential threats 30

31 Thank you for your attention Elia Grid International Rue Joseph Stevens 7 Joseph Stevensstraat 1000 Brussels Belgium Tel Fax Heidestraße Berlin Germany Tel Fax An Elia Group company