Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling. Grzegorz Onichimowski President of the Board, TGE S.A.

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1 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Grzegorz Onichimowski President of the Board, TGE S.A.

2 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Transboundary connections of the National Power Grid (technical possibilities) Within UCTE (Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia): Export 1800 MW Import 0 MW Eastern border (IPS/UPS): Export 0 MW Import: 140 MW (Belarus), 220 MW (Ukraine) DC cable (Sweden Nordel): Export / Import 600 MW

3 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Electricity import Transboundary connections Market coupling Theoretically, transboundary connections of the Polish national power grid meet the flow capacity requirement set by the EU on the level of 10% of national production of electricity, and even go beyond this requirement. Already in 2006 electricity export amounted to MWh - 4th place in Europe! While import amounted only to MWh (trade exchange). What is it like now? After ten months of 2008 the export exceeded the import only by about 10%. The export was over two times smaller than in 2007.

4 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Electricity import Transboundary connections Market coupling We are at risk of soon losing self-dependence in power production. In the last years the Polish power grid changed its role from a significant exporter to an internally balanced system. In the next years our system will need more and more imported power, unless a decrease in demand for electricity occurs. Stefania Kasprzyk, President of PSE-Operator SA

5 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Electricity import Transboundary connections Market coupling And what about our transmission capacities (1)? Transmission capacities, made available to market players in the import direction, for many years have been on a level close to zero, for synchronic connections. The main reason for the situation are carrousel flows which occur in the Central European region; their size grows annually, proportionally to the capacity increase of wind power plants installed in the northern part of UCTE.

6 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Electricity import Transboundary connections Market coupling And what about our transmission capacities (2)? Import of electricity is possible only through a cable connecting Poland with Sweden (and owned by SwePol Link Sp. z o.o. whose 33% shares are held by PGE S.A.). Due to technical reasons, however, it enables import only of very small amounts less than 25% of the production volume of a single power plant in Kozienice. Import possibilities are not going to grow soon. The cables connecting Poland with Belarus and Ukraine, taken over by PSE-O from PGE, have not been in use since 2004 and 1993 respectively. According to PSE-O they can start working no earlier than in 3-5 years.

7 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Electricity import Transboundary connections Market coupling And what about our transmission capacities (3)? What about the Swedish cable (1)? It is managed by SwePol Link (in 33% owned by PGE). Since 2006 the company has not made transmission capacities (600 MW) available to other entities. The connection s sole beneficiary is PGE. The Swedish cable is the only transboundary connection not handed over by PGE to the Polish TSO.

8 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ What about the Swedish cable (2)? Power flows according to the following rules: trading decisions foe each hour of day n +1. electricity flows to a country with higher day-ahead market price (difference between the prices at Nord Pool Spot and TGE). Exchange power limited by operators decisions (limitations in export, announced by the operators for both directions). Possibility of technical exchange between the operators.

9 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ What about the Swedish cable (3)? Power flows to the country with higher day-ahead market price (difference between the prices at Nord Pool Spot and TGE). Flows of power through the Swedish cable are based on a mechanism similar to Market Coupling (flows based on the price of electricity on power exchanges). The only difference is the fact that it does not take place on power exchange and that other entities in Poland may not use it. The only beneficiary is PGE.

10 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Conclusions: Electricity import Transboundary connections Market coupling The situation results from our multi-annual approach to transboundary exchange. We lived in the false belief that out National Power Grid is characterised by oversupply of power and by large reserves, and that development of transboundary connections will mean inevitable increase in prices and achievement of a price level similar, or even the same, as in the German market. It turned out that as a result of concentration of production and trade, in the conditions of impossibility to import power from abroad, the prices in the Polish market jumped, exceeding in some hours the prices in the German market.

11 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ The necessity to build new connections (1) Over 40% of our production units are more than 30 years old, and their reliability is decreasing. The Polish Electricity Association forecasts that by 2030 it will be necessary to replace almost 1/3 of power stations operating in Poland; but nearly no new ones are built. Monthly power balance forecasts show that since March 2009 the planned surplus of attainable production capacities will be lower than required. At the same time, forecasts for the next winter months are burdened with a risk related to small reserves of hard coal in power plants, and producers difficulties in increasing those reserves before the winter peak." Stefania Kasprzyk President of PSE-Operator

12 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ The necessity to build new connections (2) Decreasing extraction of energy-rich coal (and the necessity of its import), the energy package 3 x 20, and the possibility that since 2013 the power industry may have to buy 100% of CO2 emission allowances in auctions brings about a pressure on construction of new sources based on other production technologies (switching from coal to other fuels). If the above mentioned factors push us towards nuclear generation, large amounts of electricity will have to be imported from abroad until the construction of the new sources (this applies also to the construction of conventional sources). The question is: how, if our connections do not make it possible to transmit electricity from abroad?

13 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ The necessity to build new connections (3) Import capacities of the National Power Grid may be increased much faster. An optimum solution would be to achieve the following capacities: Within UCTE (Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia): Export / Import > 3000 MW Eastern border (IPS/UPS): Lithuania Export / Import 1000 MW Byelarus Export / Import 600 MW Ukraine Export 1200 MW, Import 1400 MW DC cable (Sweden Nordel): Export / Import 600 MW Source: EPC SA

14 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ The necessity to build new connections (4) Development of transboundary networks also requires investment in the national grid. This significantly increases investment outlays. Despite allocation of substantial EU resources in the operational programmes, PSE Operator may not be able to bear such large-scale investments. Therefore, it should be more open to investments based on public-private partnership. If investments in transmission infrastructure are based on market rules and are implemented as commercial projects generating profit to investors, it will be much easier for them to attract private capital. The commercial character of the connections should dominate in the east. At places where power exchanges exist, the connections should be made available to all entities on non-discriminatory conditions - such conditions are created by Market Coupling

15 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ The necessity to build new connections (5) The current rules of allocating transboundary transmission capacities (and the capacities significant reduction as compared with the expectations of market players) strengthens the market position of PSE - Operator who, on the sale of transborder capacities, earned about 165 million PLN in the period from July 2007 till June According to market players, direct benefits of small transboundry capacities are drawn mainly by PSE - Operator. If it makes the capacities available - it earns money; if not, it makes use of lower foreign power sale prices but does not ensure this possibility to power trading companies.

16 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Market Coupling (1) Market Coupling is a modern method of electricity trading. In this system, transmission capacities between countries are not sold in auctions. They are made available as a result of transactions concluded on power exchanges located on both sides of the border and cooperating with each other.

17 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Market Coupling (2) Sufficient number of transboundary connections is a necessary condition for correct functioning of internal power market. New investments condition the power trading possibility. However, with limited investments, capacities allocation with the use of Market Coupling procedure increases the size of trade by improving the transmission capacity of existing transboundary connections. Introduction of Market Coupling contributes to trade scope increase (both within the integrated area and with third countries), and promotes competition and limitation of monopolistic activities which can now be observed in the Polish market.

18 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Market Coupling (3) Integration of the Scandinavian markets and current integration of European markets have led to a situation where despite large concentration of entities on national markets, their impact on price levels is limited. In Europe, Market Coupling is becoming the main method of allocating transboundary capacities. Market Coupling between the Netherlands, France and Belgium in use since November 2006, Market Coupling between the Czech Republic and Slovakia since 2009, Planned connection of the German, French, Austrian and Swiss markets into one market platform since 2009.

19 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Market Coupling (3) Introduction of Market Coupling has numerous advantages an example is TMC between France, the Netherlands and Belgium. It should be remembered, however, that introduction of the mechanism requires of all parties involved (TSOs and power exchanges) sound experience and indepth process analysis based on earlier simulations. This particularly applies to Flow Based Market Coupling. Market Coupling (Flow base) between Germany and Denmark, started on 29 September 2008, was quickly suspended as it did not meet the assumed objective: the flows were not in the direction determined by the relation of prices at EEX and Nord Pool Spot. Currently, the algorithms are being analysed and improved, and the system s re-launching is planned for the first quarter 2009.

20 Power import, transboundary connections, Market Coupling Conference Power Ring, December_ Swedish cable only a cable, or a market too? Open access to the Swedish cable, i.e. access to its transmission capacities based on Market Coupling with the participation of TGE and Nord Pool is in the interest of Polish consumers, power market and National Power Grid. The current prices of electricity at Nord Pool and TGE are as follows: Base Peak Nord Pool Spot 44,74 47,81 TGE 57 67,14 Difference (NP.-TGE) -12,26-19,33 (base, peak average prices - IRDN and system prices - between and ) When prices at Nord Pool Spot are below prices at TGE, the Polish power market will have access to cheaper power. This may have impact on price lowering on this market.

21 Thank you for your attention

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