Estimating unmet demand for public and affordable housing
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1 Estimating unmet demand for public and affordable housing WA Housing Authority NHC conference, Perth, 2015 Presentation by: Julie Considine
2 WA Housing Authority: Context Very Low Income Low Moderate
3 Informed decision-making
4 Demand Model: Starting Point Professor Beer s direct estimation technique Very Low Income households <$600 per week <$800 Pilbara/Kimberley Low to Moderate Income households $600-$1999 per week $800-$2499 Pilbara/Kimberley
5 Demand Model: Input variables Components being estimated Improvised homes, tents and those sleeping out Hostels for the homeless, night shelters or a refuge Temporary accommodation staying with others (couch surfing) Very low income households Low to moderate income households Overcrowding Potentially inappropriate housing (e.g. caravans and cabins) Rental stress (defined as the 30/40 rule) Non-private dwellings who need placing; immigrants, parolees, mental health patients etc. Public housing tenants who are earning over the current eligibility criteria
6 Demand Model: Key output Very Low Income Low Moderate Unmet Demand, Census night ,000 36,000
7 Demand Model: Key output Demand Model counts Very low income households Homelessness variables 6, % Rent Stress 21, % Subtotal 28, % Low to moderate income households Homelessness variables 5, % Rent Stress 18, % Transitioning from public housing 12, % Subtotal 36, % Total 64,377
8 90.0% 80.0% Proportion of rental stress households by HHLD type (Very Low Income households) 77.3% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Families Lone person* households 10.0% 0.0%
9 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 74.4% Proportion of rental stress households by HHLD type (Low to moderate income) 70.4% 60.6% 74.2% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% Families Lone person* households 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Mandurah Bunbury Perth inner Perth North East Perth North West Perth South East Perth South West WA Outback WA Wheatbelt
10 Producing ranking tables and maps Demand Model Scoring and Prioritisation Census and admin-by-product data Estimate of unmet demand Ranking tables and maps
11 Demand model: Scoring System Unmet demand for housing Score 1 Less than 19 0 Between Between Between Greater or equal to Population projection Score Equal to 0 0 Between 0 and 4.99% Between 5% and 9.99% Greater or equal than 35% Example LGA LGA Inputs Score Unmet demand (public housing) 75 2 (score 1) Population projection 8% 2 (score 2) Total score 4 7
12 Demand Model: Ranking and Priority Priority Ranking Label 1 Very High priority 2 High priority 3 Neutral priority 4 Low priority 5 Very low priority LGA Estimated unmet demand 2011 Forecast Total Score Ranking Wanneroo (C) % Mandurah (C) % Swan (C) % Rockingham (C) % Priority
13 Demand Model: Mapped output Perth Metropolitan Area
14 Demand Model: Mapped output Regional Western Australia
15 Demand Model: Ranking tables Very High Priority High Priority Neutral Priority Low Priority Very Low Priority Busselton (S) Exmouth (S) Dundas (S) Koorda (S) Cue (S) Greater Geraldton Irwin (S) Ngaanyatjarraku (S) Trayning (S) Jerramungup (S) Broome (S) Shark Bay (S) Kellerberrin (S) Morawa (S) Lake Grace (S) Roebourne (S) York (S) Wongan-Ballidu (S) Williams (S) Cunderdin (S) Port Hedland (T) Boddington (S) Goomalling (S) Sandstone (S) Dowerin (S) Albany (C) Carnarvon (S) Chapman Valley (S) Tammin (S) Yilgarn (S) Harvey (S) Narrogin (S) Meekatharra (S) Westonia (S) Bruce Rock (S) Broomehill-Tambellup Capel (S) Gingin (S) (S) Woodanilling (S) Victoria Plains (S) Bunbury (C) Toodyay (S) Laverton (S) Coolgardie (S) Dumbleyung (S) Kalgoorlie/Boulder (C) Halls Creek (S) Nannup (S) Quairading (S) Kondinin (S) Wyndham-East Kimberley (S) Collie (S) Dalwallinu (S) Pingelly (S) Wyalkatchem (S) Dardanup (S) Manjimup (S) Yalgoo (S) Corrigin (S) Carnamah (S) Ashburton (S) Northampton (S) Boyup Brook (S) Menzies (S) Mingenew (S) Northam (S) Katanning (S) Upper Gascoyne (S) West Arthur (S) Narembeen (S) Augusta-Margaret River (S) Bridgetown- Greenbushes (S) Wandering (S) Cranbrook (S) Three Springs (S) Denmark (S) Dandaragan (S) Merredin (S) Mount Marshall (S) Wickepin (S) Leonora (S) Donnybrook-Balingup (S) Moora (S) Murchison (S) Coorow (S) Chittering (S) Wiluna (S) Wagin (S) Mount Magnet (S) Kent (S) Derby-West Kimberley (S) Ravensthorpe (S) Beverley (S) Gnowangerup (S) Mukinbudin (S) East Pilbara (S) Waroona (S) Kulin (S) Brookton (S) Nungarin (S) Esperance (S) Plantagenet (S) Cuballing (S) Kojonup (S) Perenjori (S)
16 Using the Demand Model A paper has now been published, it contains: Original WA ranking tables Detailed methodology (to construct model in other States/Territories) Useful for comparing across LGAs Caveats Next major update
17 Conclusion One of many tools used Peer reviewed Future projects Questions?
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