Curtin Corner. Alan Langford. Chief Economist. Bankwest. 1st of September 2017

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1 Curtin Corner 1st of September 2017 Alan Langford Chief Economist Bankwest

2 10 Real Gross State Product Growth solid bars; WA actual sourced from ABS shaded bars; DAE WA forecasts solid line: actual rest of Aust sourced from ABS dotted line: DAE forecasts rest of Aust per cent financial years ending June

3 per cent sources: ABS catalogue Annual Population Growth - WA WA population growth 25-year average (1.8%) Sep % Mar Dec 16 quarters WA Dec 08 rest of Australia Sep 12 WA before census revisions

4 Population as at Census Dates (000) Change (%) years 10 years Perth ** 1,512 1,729 1, rest of WA WA 1,959 2,239 2, Australia 19,855 21,508 23,

5 Median Age as at Census Dates Bunbury* Perth** WA Australia

6 Median Household Income per Week as at Census Dates (000) Change (%) years 10 years Bunbury * 1,007 1,196 1, rest of WA 1,071 1,405 1, Perth ** 1,087 1,455 1, Australia 1,029 1,230 1,

7 WA source:abs catalogue Trend Residential Building Approvals (000) WA (left scale) rest of Australia rest of Australia (right scale) 1 8 Jan Jun 17 months 9

8 per cent Residential Rental Vacancy Rate - Perth average since 1980 (3.5 per cent) source: REIWA 0.5 Mar Jun 17 quarters

9 volume (mt) Australian Iron Ore Export Volumes and Real $A Price (a) notional nominal export prices derived by dividing total value by volume, then converted to real by deflating nominal prices by 2000 tax-change-adjusted CPI solid lines are actual data; dotted lines are Department of Industry, Innovation and Science March 2017 forecasts/projections. nominal weekly spot price source: Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (DIIS) Jan Aug 17 weeks real price (right scale) financial years ending June 2011 AUDUSD assumptions 16-17: : : : : : 0.75 real $A price (a) volume (left scale)

10 billion tonnes Global Iron Ore Production and Trade (a) China's production adjusted for world average iron content production (a) source: Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (DIIS) production up 81%in 6 years years 07 trade DIIS forecasts iron ore trade (mt) exports Aust: 809 Brazil: 364 Ukraine: 38 India: 9 imports China: 1,035 EU: 140 Japan: 131 Korea: 75

11

12 GDP Annual Chinese GDP Growth and Manufacturing PMI per cent per cent line monthlly PMI only Jan Aug 17 months Dec 09 PMI (right scale) PMI Source: Bloomberg 50 per cent PMI line 6 Dec Mar Jun 17 quarters Mar 09 GDP (left scale) 46 44

13 oil ($/barrel) US Natural Gas and WTI Oil Prices ($US) gas (a) $/mbtu Source: US Energy Information Agency (EIA). Solid lines are actual, dotted lines are EIA forecasts NYMEX gas futures weekly since source: Bloomberg 1.5 Jan 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul Aug 17 weeks 10 0 Jan Dec 18 months gas oil (a) wellhead until 1996, Henry Hub since 1997, both measured in $/million btu

14 35 30 source: US Energy Information Agency (EIA) US Gas Production 25 trillion cubic feet shale only(bcf/day): Marcellus (Pa/WV/Oh/NY): 16.3 Eaf\gle Ford (Tx): 4.4 Utica (Oh/Pa/WV): 3.9 Haynesville (Tx/La): 3.8 Barnett (Tx): 3.2 Total: 42.9 of which is from shale years

15 WTI Oil Price and Notional Australian LNG Export Prices WTI ($US/barrel) price ($/tonne) (a) (a): notinal $A price, derived by dividing export value by volume, sourced from DIIS dotted lines are DIIS forecasts LNG (right scale) WTI (left scale) financial years ending June 150

16 Petroleum Exploration - WA $billion source: ABS catalogue years

17 Mineral Exploration Other than Petroleum - WA $million WA's share (%) WA's share (%) (right scale) $million (left scale) source: ABS catalogue Mar Mar 17 quarters

18

19

20 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, year moving average Perth regional office Annual Rainfall (mm) decade averages Perth Airport 1950s: s: s: s: s: s: s: 656 mm source: Bureau of Meteorology Perth airport years

21 Australian Dollar Against US Dollar daily 'banana republic' Jul taper starts $US per $A J F M A M J J A days Fed first flags intention to taper peak to trough fall in late 2008 was similar to Paul Keating's mid-1980s 'banana republic' decline - but what took two and half years back then took less than three months in the wake of Lehman Brothers collpapse Feb Jan Aug 17 months GFC sources: RBA, Bloomberg

22 Trade-Weighted Index Exchange Rates index - January 1984 = index - 01/07/16 = daily start of 1997 Asian currency crisis $US $A J F M A M J J A days sources: RBA, Fed $A $US Lehman Jan Aug 17 months

23 7 Australian Dollar Against Chinese renminbi (yuan) yuan per $A sources: RBA; Bloomberg daily J F M A M J J A days 1.5 Jan Aug 17 months

24 Net Short-Term Overseas Departures and Exchange Rate net departures (trend estimates) monthly since 2010 net departures (trend) Jan Aug 17 months (a) trade-weighted index (TWI) value of the Australian dollar XR net departures (left scale) sources: ABS catalogue ; RBA Exchange Rate (a) TWI (right scale) Mar Jun 17 quarters

25 education credits (a) 6 5 Net Education Credits and the Exchange Rate (a) net education credits as %of total exports of goods and services education (left scale) AUDSUD sources : ABS catalogue ; RBA AUDUSD (right scale) years ending June

26 *: includes Waroona, Busselton, Dunsborough, Margaret River, Augusta, Australind, Dardanup, Nannup, Northcliffe, Windy Harbour, Walpole, Bridgetown, Manjimup, Pemberton, Balingup. **: Greater Perth, including from Two Rocks to Dawesville, Pinjarra, Herron, Clifton, Bullsbrook, The Lakes, Wooroloo. Source: ABS census time series portal.

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