Transport Development Strategy for Hanoi (HAIDEP)

Transcription

1 The International Seminar on Sustainable Land Use and Transport Planning Transport Development Strategy for Hanoi (HAIDEP) June 2006, Hanoi ALMEC Corporation, Japan

2 Topics Development trend in Vietnam Context and approach Regional transportation development Urban transportation situation Urban development orientation Urban transportation development orientation UMRT development Other important areas of concern Investment plan and evaluation 1

3 Development Trend in Vietnam Urbanization Industrialization Motorization Globalization Growth of cities (no. and size) Economic growth with changes in sector structure Changing lifestyles and diversifying needs Increasing concern on environment Increasing difficulties in sector management Urban Population Ratio (%) Philippines Indonesia Korea Malaysia China 20 Thailand Vietnam Cambodia GDP per capita (US$, log) Japan 2

4 Context and Approach Main Issues in Urban Transportation Increasing traffic congestions and worsening safety and environment. Weak traffic management. Low awareness of traffic rules and safety. Insufficient public transport services. Lack of roads and slow development. Lack of funding and funding mechanism. Need for comprehensive and strategic approach. 3

5 Approach to Urban Transportation Development Integrated development: Transportation, urban development, and land use/ environment. Inter-city and urban. Intermodal role-sharing. Infrastructure and services. Context and Approach Infrastructure development < service provision and management. Public-transport-based urban growth and development. Sustainable funding and project prioritization. Critical attention to key social and environmental issues. 4

6 Context and Approach Goal of the Transportation Sector to promote the effective growth of Hanoi and to ensure necessary mobility and accessibility to urban services for the people and society Objectives of the Transportation Sector Develop integrated/ intermodal urban transportation system with competitive international/regional intermodal transportation network to provide seamless service for trade and passenger travel. Build efficient, high-quality public transportation system through combined urban rail, BRT, feeder bus, taxi, and others to decongest traffic and ensure accessibility and public safety. Establish effective management system to optimize available infrastructure, including maintenance, traffic control, parking management, safety, air pollution, etc as well as sustainable funding mechanism. 5

7 Regional Transportation Development Regional Transportation Demand _ Interprovincial Traffic Distribution in the Study Area ` Passenger 000 No/ day 1, (%) 8 Railw ay Road Bus Road Car (%) Tons/ day 500 Railw ay Cargo 400 IWT Road Truck (%) Freight (%) (%) (%)

8 Regional Transportation Development Regional Development Directions Regional coordination/integration Growth corridors Competitive industrial development and market integration Strategic transport system development Effective urban development Strengthen urban rural linkages Effective land-use and environmental management Social and cultural integration and development Strengthen development administration 7

9 Spatial Structure in Areas within km Radius from Hanoi and Role of Transportation Balanced development for mutual benefits for and role-sharing among Hanoi and neighboring areas Strategic transportation and infrastructure development Regional Transportation Development 8

10 Urban Transportation Situation Characteristics of Urban Transportation High mobility 80% of households own a M/C 45% of households own more than 2 Good accessibility average travel time to work: 20 minutes Bad safety high accident rate: highest in Asia Trip Rate (no. of trips/day/person) City Including Walking Excluding Walking HCMC Hanoi Bangkok 2.3 n.a Tokyo 2.6 n.a Ave. Assessment (%) Travel Time Bad So-so Good (min) Walking Bicycle Motorcycle (Driving) Motorcycle (Passenger) Xe om Car Bus Others TOTAL TOTAL (excluding walking)

11 Urban Transportation Situation Significant Shift in Modal Choices Modal Shares of Person Trips (%) Mode Hanoi HCMC ) ) ) ) Bicycle Motorcycle Car Bus Others Total ) SIDA VUTAP (urban districts only) 2) HAIDEP HIS 3) HCMC Transport Study (1996, DFID) 4) JICA HOUTRANS 10

12 Motorcycle Efficiency Urban Transportation SituationS M/C Car Bus Space Efficiency PCU 0.25 ~ Ave. Occupancy Loading Capacity/PCU Cost Efficiency VOC at 20 kph (VND/vehicle-km) VOC at 20 kph (VND/pass.-km) ~ ,178 5, , Number of Lanes (Two-way) 6+ lanes 4 lanes 2 lanes 1 lane (One-way) 4+ lanes 3 lanes 2 lanes 11

13 Future of Motorcycles and Cars Urban Transportation SituationS Two-wheeled vehicle ownership ratio [vehicle/1,000pop] M/C Sri Lanka Thailand Malysia Vietnam Indonesi Cambodia Lao India Philippines Pakistan Mongolia Bangladesh Hanoi HCMC Hanoi: 2003 HCMC: 2002 Korea Taiwan Japan Singapore Hong Kong Developed Countries HICs UMICs LMICs LICs LLDCs ,000 10, ,000 GDP[US$] In year 2000 Four-wheeled vehicle ownership ratio [vehicle/1,000pop] Car Cambodia Laos Mongolia Sri Lanka Indonesia Bangladesh Hanoi Pakistan India Vietnam HCMC Malysia Thailand Philippines Hanoi: 2003 HCMC: 2002 Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore Japan Developed Countries HICs UMICs LICs LMICs LLDCs 100 1,000 10, ,000 GDP[US$] In year

14 Traffic safety on roads is the most serious concern of the people. Providing adequate public transportation services is much expected by the people. People are against paying additional charges/fees. Need to promote social understanding and acceptance of policies People s Concerns on Transportation Services 60% Very 5 Good 50% Assessment (average) 40% 30% 20% 10% Good 4 So-so 3 Bad 2 0% 0 Very 1 Bad Traffic safety Most Important Roads and facilities Traffic enforcement Travel conditions Traffic control measures Public transportation Air pollution from vehicles Walking condition Parking at destination Parking at home Assessment Point People s Expectation for the Future 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 No Public Transport Traffic Traffic Rules Rules Bus Bus Priority Priority Restricted Restricted Area Area Private sector participation Tax Tax Not Sure Yes User User Charge Charge People s s Opinions on Urban Transportation Urban Transportation Situation S 13

15 Urban Development Orientation Future Populations (2020) Hanoi and Integrated Areas Area 1998 MP HMA Plan Trend Proposed Urban 2,800 2) 3,700 4) 4,000 2) 3,900 2) Hanoi Rural 1, ) Total 3,900 4,300 4,800 4,500 Adjacent Area 1) n.a Total n.a. 5,100 5,100 5,100 1) Including Ha Dong, Tram Troi, and An Khanh in Ha Tay Province; Phuc Yen and Me Linh in Vinh Phuc Province; Tu Son in Bac Ninh Province; and Nhu Quynh in Hung Yen Province. 2) Including Soc Son. 3) Rural population by 2020 was estimated based on the 2010 figure, which was calculated based on the total population of Hanoi City forecasted in the SEDP ) The HMA Development Plan of MOC (2005) estimated that the population growth of Hanoi between 2003 and 2020 would be 1.9 million comprising natural growth and migration on top of the existing 1.8 million as of

16 Proposed Draft General Plan, 2020 Urban Development Orientation Population of Hanoi: 4.5 million urban: 3.9 million rural: 0.6 million Population of integrated urban areas of adjoining provinces: 0.6 million Water, green & culture as backbone of the city Public transport-based city Polycentric spatial structure within the city and in the metropolitan areas Integrated land-use and transport infrastructure Separation/Proper interface of intercity and urban transport 15

17 Urban Development Orientation Population Distribution Growth towards north, west, and east Expansion of urban areas beyond Hanoi s boundary De-densification of city center population 16

18 Development of Modern and Competitive Subcenters Urban Development Orientation 17

19 Urban Transportation Development Orientation Planning Principles Effective interface between regional and urban transport Comprehensive and integrated development intermodal linkages (road, rail, IWT, air) passenger and cargo Transport development integrated with urban growth management mass transit development to improve accessibility to and promote investment in the city centre mass transit development to promote suburbanization efficiently and effectively Effective use of transport infrastructure/ facilities traffic management, demand management, pricing maintenance Stage development 18

20 Planning Scope Development of roads and strengthening of road network Long-term strategies for mass transit development Modernization of bus services Strengthening road traffic control and management Enhancement of social awareness on traffic rules and safety Expansion of funding sources Main Components Comprehensive transport system (provincial/urban transport, intermodal, logistics Road network and facilities Traffic management/ safety Public transportation system Transport space/ environment Transport sector administration Modal Share of Urban Transportation 7.8 mil trips/day Urban Transportation Development Orientation M/C Bus 15.1 mil trips/day Car Metro Taxi, etc %

21 Urban Transportation Development Orientation Future Demand If current trend continues, car traffic will increase while M/C will not decrease much. need for proactive measures to expand public transportation services Car numbers may not decrease much even if public transportation services are much improved. need for drastic measures to control car use Estimated Future Demand 2005 Trend 2020 PT 30% PT 50% Bicycle Motorcycle Car Public Transport 1) % Total Million trips/day ) Public transportation includes rail, BRT, and bus. Impact of Demand on Road Traffic Traffic demand: 1.88 Ave. trip length: 1.36 Shift to cars: x 1.36 x 1.26 = 3.2 times 20

22 Future Demand (2020 Do-Nothing Case) Urban Transportation Development Orientation Traffic Volume PCU V/C Ratio V/C M/C Car Bus Truck

23 Road Planning Principles Remove bottlenecks including missing links and problem intersections. Segregate interprovincial and urban traffic and provide adequate interface measures. Build clear hierarchy (primary, secondary, tertiary) and ring and radial roads. Further improve technical standards for roads and road facilities (safety, efficiency, beautification). Establish more effective mechanisms for road development (resettlement, integrated land use, networking, funding). Urban Transportation Development Orientation 117 projects with total length of 596km 22

24 Road Projects Express Way Urban Primary Urban Secondary Primary Road Cross-sections sections Estimated Project Costs Proj. Total Length (km) Construction Cost Secondary Road Project Cost (Mill. US$) Bridge Land Cost Earth Works/ Interchange Compensation Cost Total ,356 2, , , ,233 Total 470 1,202 1,356 3, ,094 Urban Transportation Location Development Orientation of Road Projects Short term ( ) Medium term ( ) Long term ( ) On-going Urban growth management Traffic demand Network configuration Resettlement/Envi ronmental constraints Cost recovery 23

25 Road Development in Hanoi Road density will be significantly improved with construction of 470 km of primary and secondary roads. (approximately 30 km per year for next 15 years) Tertiary roads must be constructed in accordance with urban development. A mechanism must be worked out that they are constructed primarily by developers (%) Urban Transportation Development Orientation Urban Primary Urban Secondary Road Length and Road Density Length (km) Density (km/km2) Length (km) Density (km/km2) Tertiary Total , Road Density International Comparison (HAIDEP 2020) Tokyo (Center) 12 Singapore 8.5 Bangkok (City) 2.5 Bangkok (Total) 7.4 HCMC (Urban Core) HCMC (Total) Hanoi (Urban Core) Hanoi (Urban Fringe) Hanoi (Suburban) Hanoi (Rural) Hanoi (Total) 24

26 Performance of Proposed Main Road Network Future level of traffic services will be reasonable and roads are more effectively used for traffic However, if public transport is not adequately provided, the situation get worse, especially in the city center districts. Urban Core Urban Fringe Urban Transportation Development Orientation District Ba Dinh 2005 V/C Ratio 2020 (PT share) 10% 30% Average Travel Speed 2020 (PT share) 10% 30% Hoan Kiem Hai Ba Trung Dong Da Tay Ho Thanh Xuan Cau Giay Hoang Mai Long Bien Sub Tu Liem urban Thanh Tri Soc Son Rural Dong Anh Gia Lam ) PT= public transport V/C= volume capacity 25

27 Urban Transportation Development Orientation Bridges across the Red River Bridge No. of Lanes Capacity (000 PCUs/day) Theoretical Practical Traffic Volume (000 PCUs/day) 2005 (Actual) Trend (PT share 10%) 2020 PT share 30% North Thang Long Nhat Tan(New) Ring Road 4(New) Total East Long Bien Chuong Duong Vinh Tuy(New) Thanh Tri(New) Ring Road(New) Total Total Traffic congestion on the bridges will be solved by raising public transportation share to 30%. The remaining congestion around Chuong Duong Bridge can be alleviated by setting a toll (e.g. US$ 1 per crossing). 26

28 Urban Transportation Development Orientation Comprehensive Road and Urban Area Development Practice in Japan 84 27

29 Urban Transportation Development Orientation Example of a Comprehensive Area Development Approach Before After 28

30 UMRT Development World Experiences in Metro Development Opening Year of the Subway and Population in the City City population ('000 persons) London Europe/US CIS/East Europe Asia Latin America/Africa Paris Budapest Tokyo Beijing Seoul Year of sub-way (first) operation Calcutta Teharan Bangkok Taipei Data source: UN (2004); Metro is introduced in urban areas with populations of more or less 3 million. 29

31 UMRT Development Opening Year of First Metro and Vehicle Ownership Rate Asian cities introduced metro even when vehicle ownership rates were relatively low. 30

32 UMRT Development Opening Year of First Subway and Per Capita GDP Taipei GDP per capita (1990 PPP $) London Europe/US CIS/East Europe Asia Latin America/Africa Paris Budapest Tokyo Beijing Seoul Calcutta Bangkok Teharan Year of sub-way (first) operation Data source: UN (2004); Asian cities introduced subway at relatively lower levels of per capita GDP. 31

33 Success Factors Introduction of metro in the early stage of urbanization, motorization. and economic development. Development of good network including feeder services by other public transport modes such as bus and taxi. Long-term commitment to development strategies including integrated urban development, funding and private sector participation, comprehensive traffic management, technical standards, and public support. UMRT Development 32

34 UMRT Development Examples Tokyo Singapore Station Coverage (within 10 minutes walk) 33

35 UMRT Development UMRT Development for Hanoi UMRT forms the core system to a public transport-based city. Strategies Formulate long-term network development plan and phased development strategy. Segregate interprovincial and urban traffic: Complete ring route of Vietnam Railway Convert existing VR routes within ring route into urban rail Develop integrated system: Interprovincial and urban services Among different lines Feeder services Technical standards Urban development Involve private sector. 34

36 UMRT Development MOT Plan on Urban Rail in Hanoi Line 1. Yen Vien Ngoc Hoi 2. Hanoi Station Ha Dong Lengh (km) Bac Co Nhon 16 System/ Structure LRT, elevated using VNR but separate line in long-term LRT, Metro, elevated 4. Hanoi Station Noi Bai 5. Daewoo Trung Kinh Hoa Lac 6. Giap Bat Station Nam Thang Long 7. Buoi Dong Anh Soc Son Co Bi Uy No 26 Total 210 LRT, metro, elevated using VNR (Nam Thang Long Tang Mi) but new parallel line in longterm LRT, Metro, elevated Depends on the development in the north of the Red River 35

37 Proposed UMRT (Urban Mass Rapid Trasit) Network Urban rail for high-demand corridors, BRT for low-demand corridors. Possible future upgrade of BRT to urban rail when demand increases. Underground system in the area within ring roads 2 and 3. Integration of adjoining urban areas (Ha Tay, Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen). UMRT Und ergr ound Urban Rail Elevat ed Atgrade UMRT Development Total BRT (Atgrade) (km) Total 1 nil nil nil nil nil nil Total

38 UMRT Development Importance of Integrated Urban Development Efficient and effective use of lands (control of urban sprawl). Reduction in urban infrastructure costs. Increase in convenience in access to various urban services. Creating new and diversified commercial/business development opportunities. Increase in UMRT ridership. Mutually beneficial to urban and transport sectors. Urbanized Area UMRT Line Intermodal Facilities Feeder Service 37

39 Estimated Demand High demand to/from city center. Heavy demand on lines 1 and 2. Average travel distance: 11.3km. Demand increase with strict control of private vehicle use. UMRT Development Cross-section Demand, 2020 Estimated Traffic Demand (2020) UMRT Line Length (km) No. of Pax/day (000) Traffic Density (Pax-km/ Route-km) , , , ,300 Total 193 1,624 98,100 Passenger/day 25,000 50,000 38

40 UMRT Development Importance of Railway Network Configuration One line has little effect. Network Configuration in CBD Must be in the form of a network with convenient transfers. Wide coverage in CBD. Efficient connection with outer areas. Line 2 Line 1 Line 3 Extension along Growth Corridors Multimodal/Interchange Station Intermediate Stations 500m circle CBD Line 1 Line 1 Line 3 39

41 Multimodal Interchange Stations/ Terminals Smooth transfer Feeder services Integrated development UMRT Development MRT+bus+public housing (Singapore) Busway+community centre (Curitiba, Brazil) Rail+Bus+Port+commercial facilities (Hong Kong Station) 40

42 Available Systems UMRT Development MRT in Singapore Metro in Taipei LRT in Manila LRT in San Francisco Metro in Tokyo 41

43 Other Important Areas of Concern Bus and other public transportation services (taxi, xe om, cyclo) Traffic management Parking Traffic safety Water transportation Freight transportation Resettlement and ROW acquisition Capacity building 42

44 Investment Plan and a d Evaluation Summary of Transportation ation Master Plan Projects Projects No. of Projects Length Project Cost (km) US$ mil. % Urban Roads ,682 1) 30.7 Traffic Safety URBAN Public Transportation ) 1.4 Traffic Management UMRT , Subtotal ,084 Roads 20 2,691 4,610 3) 18.4 REGIONAL Railway 12 2, Airport 2 3, Inland Waterway Subtotal 39 10,910 TOTAL , Source: HAIDEP Study Team. 1) ROW cost = US$ million. 2) ROW cost = US$ 303 million. 3) ROW cost = US$ 903 million. 43

45 Performance of Transportation Master Plan Investment Plan and Evaluation Areas Reachable within 30- and 60-Minute Travel to/from Hoan Kiem Lake Do-nothing Case MP Network Scenario Areas reachable within 30 minutes Areas reachable within 60 minutes Do-Something HAIDEP Network (Committed) Network With UMRT With UMRT & TDM Average Travel Speed (km/h) Average Volume/ Capacity Ratio

46 Investment Plan and Evaluation Funding Opportunity Difficult to fund all projects by 2020 (US$ 14 billion for urban projects). Need for prioritization. Need for expanding funding mechanism, user charges, development benefits. Preliminary Budget Envelope Scenario 1: GDP Growth = 8%/yr ( ) % of transportation sector to GDP = 5% Possible budget envelope = US$ 5,500 mil. Scenario 2: % to transportation sector to GDP = 2.5% Possible budget envelope = US$ 2,750 mil. 45

47 Investment Plan and Evaluation Funding Opportunities (Case of HCMC) Investment Requirement Possible Funding Source $ 18.2 bil. Ongoing/Committed Roads Public Transport Traffic Management / Environment Other works (30% of M/P) T D M Vehicle Registration Parking Fee Area Licensing Fuel Price US$ bil. M/C ($300) Car ($3,000) M/C: VND3,500 Car: VND6,000 Private participation Conventional 1) Fund Source (1.25% of GDP) M/C: VND7,500/entry Car: VND15,000 /entry 1.5 times of existing ) Urban Expressway: 40%, UMRTs: 40%, Secondary Roads: 20% 46

48 Project Prioritization Prioritization is important. Adequate evaluation criteria must be set. Process must be clear and transparent. Evaluation Criteria Investment Plan and Evaluation Identified Projects Economic Analysis (EIRR) Private Sector Participation (Income generation) Promoting urban growth and desired landuse Social and natural environment (resettlement) Government Policy Budget Envelop Proposed Projects 47

49 Key to Sustainable Transport Development Integrated/Coordinated Development Regional, urban and local transport Transport, urban/landuse and environment Infrastructure and services Public private role-sharing and inter-agency coordination. Public transport development Political will Social awareness and support Effective operation and management Sector management capacity Planning Implementation and monitoring Funding 48

50 END...thank you for your attention 49