TEAM How many tonnes of CO₂ emissions could be avoided in your lifetime if New Zealand transitions to a completely electric vehicle fleet?

Transcription

1 TEAM 1006 How many tonnes of CO₂ emissions coul be avoie in your lifetime if New Zealan transitions to a completely electric vehicle fleet? SUMMARY Fully electric vehicles are a relatively new technology which allows for the elimination of all tailpipe emissions. They utilize the ability to store energy in rechargeable batteries which powers vehicles as an alternative to fossil fuel consumption. Petrol an iesel vehicles release tailpipe emissions which inclue carbon ioxie, a greenhouse gas. Direct tailpipe emissions from battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are significantly reuce by running cars on electricity. Consequently, irect carbon ioxie emissions are able to be reuce if BEVs replace all non-electric vehicles. However, carbon ioxie emissions will still occur throughout the prouction process an uring electricity generation. For the purposes of this investigation, we consier electric vehicles as those which are fully electric an not hybri. Following this, we compare the total amount of CO 2 emission in tonnes if we were to continue in current trens (of population growth, vehicle ownership in population, istance travelle, an emissions per istance) with the emission of CO 2 for a complete fleet of electric vehicles in New Zealan over the remaining lifetime of an average 17 year-ol New Zealaner, as implie in the question phrasing your lifetime, which we interprete to be until 2082, as etaile below. INTRODUCTION To interpret this open-ene question, we must first specify efinitions by making reasonable assumptions about its meaning an relate terms. We have efine the timeframe of your lifetime to be the remaining lifespan of the average 17 year-ol New Zealaner. We unerstan from the woring of How many tonnes of CO₂ emissions coul be avoie that we are expecte to fin the realistic maximum amount of emissions avoie possible. Since restrictions on buget are not specifie, we are assuming we have a plentiful, but realistically limite, amount of money. Rather than efining a finite buget (which woul require a significant portion of our report to be eicate to cost-effectiveness, which woul shift the focus from the purpose of the question) we have chosen to efine our restrictions by what the money can be spent on, as follows: we will allow one-off spening on infrastructure require to sustain a fully electric vehicle fleet (new power plants to meet the increase in energy consumption, charging stations, etc), but we will avoi interfering with the vehicle market (it woul be all too easy to simply say the government will buy electric cars for all New Zealaners an so New Zealan will have a fully electric vehicle fleet immeiately ). To transition to a fully electric vehicle fleet in the fastest an most realistic way, we are assuming the New Zealan government will introuce an immeiate ban on the sale of

2 non-electric vehicles. We have also recognise that achieving a 100% electric vehicle fleet is unrealistic consiering the given timeframe - though we expect that the large majority of non-electric vehicles to be replace relatively quickly, the last remaining vehicles may take a far longer (an less easily restricte) amount of time to be replace. Due to this observation, we have efine fully electric vehicle fleet as at least 99% of vehicles operating entirely on electricity. We have efine the term vehicle as a means of carrying or transporting 1 2 something an specifically to New Zealan roas, NZTA s classification of passenger vehicles of class category M as oppose to incluing the L an N categories which refer to motorcycles/mopes an goos vehicles, respectively. Due to limitations of ata available an technology to replace these less common transportation vehicles, we i not account for these in our calculations. To calculate the number of tonnes of CO₂ emission New Zealan can avoi in this timeframe we nee to consier the amount of CO₂ which woul be emitte following current trens in vehicles per capita, population growth, an average CO₂ emissions per car. We must then consier the amount of carbon emissions which woul be prouce if New Zealan transitions to a fully electric vehicle fleet. We will make similar moels as for the current timeline, assuming that all variables stay constant with the exception of the percentage of electric vehicles an, as a result, the average CO₂ emissions per vehicle. By extrapolating historical ata, we are able to moel expecte population growth, increase vehicle numbers an carbon ioxie emissions. In general, tonnes of CO₂ emissions avoie = current extrapolation - future preiction CALCULATION FOR LIFE EXPECTANCY Due to the woring of the question, we efine lifetime in terms of life expectancy. Life 3 expectancy is an age-specific measure of average length of life left. Our timeline is base on the remaining lifespan of a 17 year ol living in New Zealan, uner the assumption that the question is irecte towars the average NZESC contestant. The majority of contestants in previous years were Year 12 an 13 an hence 17 was the chosen average age. Base on ata 4 from by gener, we have calculate an average life expectancy of years. We are assuming that life expectancy is base off currently available ata an oes not change with the expecte evelopment of new technology. We cannot preict the rate of technological evelopment, so all preictions are limite to the socio-economic factors relating to the perio of 1 Merriam-Webster NZ Transport Agency 3 Statistics New Zealan h/life-expectancy.aspx 4 Statistics New Zealan

3 the ata use. The life expectancy use to calculate a timeframe is base on the assumption that life expectancy will stay constant, or relatively similar, throughout the entire perio. The broa nature of the question has prompte us to assume that the transition into a fully electric vehicle fleet will begin over the remaining life expectancy of an average New Zealaner who has alreay live 17 years. Therefore, our transition will occur over a timeline of 64 years until Average life expectancy= (Male+Female)/2 = ( )/2 = years Remaining: = years Therefore, projections over a lifetime of 64 years will be until CURRENT TREND We are looking at how many tonnes of CO₂ emissions we can avoi, so we nee a preiction of how many tonnes of CO₂ we are proucing at our current rate. By tabulating an moelling latest ata, we are able to extrapolate an exten the graph to prouce an estimate for an amount of CO₂ emissions for the year of Our moel prouce a line of best fit which gave an mathematical equation showing the relationship between carbon ioxie emissions against year. The preicte cumulative value for 2082 will later be compare with the 2082 value for fully electric vehicle emissions. DISCUSSION EXPECTED CARBON EMISSIONS FOR CURRENT TIMELINE We will moel New Zealan s projecte carbon emissions from vehicle usage (excluing prouction an isposal) for the next 64 years by projecting the number of cars per capita an New Zealan s population. CALCULATION FOR POPULATION We create a moel that woul be able to give us a projection of the population level until using ata from Statistics NZ. Given that the rate of population appears to be ecreasing (i.e. the ata appears to be fitting a curve that will be concave own), a logarithmic moel was use to approximate the population. While noting that a logistic curve is typically use to moel population growth, the complexity of such a moel couple with the relatively short time frame that our moel is looking at means that a logarithmic moel will be a fair approximation. This gives us a moel for the population of New Zealan at any given time to be * 10 7 * ln(y) * 10 8 = p(y) (Where p is the population an y is the year) 5 Statistics New Zealan

4 CALCULATION FOR CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION A projection for the ata on emissions (in kilograms) per kilogram in a year was then foun 6 accoring to ata on NZTA. The general tren shows an ecrease an hence fitte with an exponential moel with equation ε (y) = where y is the year an ε is * 1 18 * e ( y) emission in kilograms per kilometer. CALCULATION FOR DISTANCE PER VEHICLE 7 For each vehicle, the number of kilometers it travels in a year shoul also be consiere, an since the number of cars per capita is increasing in general this value ecreases over time. With 8 ata from the Ministry of Transport, we then proceee to meel this with an exponential curve 6 Ministry of Transport Fleet-2016-web.pf 7 ibi 8 ibi

5 with equation (y) = c * 1 12 * e ( y) per vehicle in kilometers. where y is year an /c is the istance travelle VEHICLES PER PERSON 9 Using the ata on vehicles per 1000 population available from the Ministry of Transport, we can approximate a moel with the equation c(y) = * y cos(2πy/11 5.5). This moel was erive by analysing the increasing general tren line an then implementing a sinusoial graph base on analysis of the resiuals. CO₂ EMISSIONS BY 2082 ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS This can be foun using the carbon ioxie emissions per kilometer travelle, average kilometers travelle per car, population an cars per population an integrating across the time perio of our lifespan. 9 ibi

6 ε ε(y)= (y) (y) (y) (y) * c p * p That is, that the amount of carbon ioxie emissions in kilograms as a function of the year, ε(y) can be given as the prouct of four functions all epenent on the year. These functions are the emissions per istance (which changes ue to increasing efficiency of vehicles) - ε (y), istance per vehicle, which ecreases ue to the increase in the number of cars, the amount of cars c (y) per capita c (y), which can be moelle as increasing but having seasonal sinusoial variations, p an p(y), which has been moelle by a logarithmic approximation of the secon half of a logistic function. The given value will be in kilograms an shoul be converte to tonnes. Given the equations foun: Substituting these equations, * c p (y) = * 10 7 * ln(y) * 10 8 ε (y) = * 1 18 * e ( y) (y) = * * e ( y) c c (y) = cos(2πy/11.5) p * y ε(y)= ( * 10 7 * ln(y) * 10 8 ) ( * * e ( y) ) ( * * e ( y) )( * y cos((2πy/11) 5.5) In orer to fin the total emission of carbon ioxie in our efine lifetime, we shoul fin the area uner this curve by efinite integration: ε(y) y = [( * 10 7 * ln(y) * 10 8 ) ( * * e ( y) ) ( * * e ( y) )( * y cos((2πy/11) 5.5)] y = * = 2.345*10 8 tonnes Note that ue to the large nature of this equation, a software-base numerical integration tool was utilise. EXPECTED CARBON EMISSIONS FOR SALE BAN TIMELINE Accoring to the tren of global vehicle sales, it may be possible for New Zealan to transition sales of only electrical vehicles similarly to the plans of the Netherlans (2025), France (2040)

7 10 an Norway (2030). If New Zealan were to take action as of 4th August 2018 an ban all non-electric vehicles immeiately, an assuming that New Zealan has a similar rate of 11 replacement of vehicles as the Unite States of aroun 21% annually, an given that EV make 12 up approximately 1% of the total New Zealan vehicle fleet toay, it can be estimate that the proportion of non EV vehicles for a given year after 2018 can be moelle by an expression of 0.79 y An likewise, the proportion of EV vehicles for a given year after 2018 can be moelle by y 2018 Where y is the year. Note that 0.01 an 1.01 are use in orer to compensate for the fact that 1% of the current vehicle fleet in the country is electric. Further note that given that this is a power function, it is inherently asymptotic, an as such, it is impossible to achieve a situation where 100% of New Zealan s vehicle fleet is replace. This is a realistic factor, as it woul be impossible to remove all non EV simply by banning the sales of EV, as some non EV will always continue to be maintaine. Following this, we now create a new function ζ(y) that escribes the emissions shoul this ban be put in place. By comparing the efinite integrals between 2082 an 2018 of ζ(y) with ε(y), we will be able to erive a number for the amount of CO 2 emissions reuce in our lifetime by such a ban. We now hol the assumptions that even with the introuction of this ban, the istance travelle per car, the cars per capita an the population growth functions will remain the same. As a result, the only ifference will be the emissions per istance travelle, or ζ/(y). In orer to calculate this, several new functions an assumptions were require. Firstly, given that electric vehicles mae up such a small number of the initial vehicle fleet (>1%), we assume that the ε/(y) for the entire vehicle fleet was equivalent to the emissions per unit istance as a function of the year for non EV, as the effect of EV on this function was thought to be negligible. This was one because of the significant ifficulty in sourcing information regaring the emissions of only non EV. Seconly, through research, we foun that the Nissan Leaf was the most common fully electric 13 car in New Zealan, constituting 61.35% of all electric cars in New Zealan. Because of this, 10 Alanna Petroff Horst Stipp (2018) 12 NZTA, (2018) s/ 13 Sigur Magnusson, 2017,

8 14 we assume the Nissan Leaf s rate of energy consumption of kwh/km to be a fair estimate of the energy consumption for an average EV. On the assumption that the average electric vehicle requires kwh/km to run, we then use ata from the Ministry of Business an Innovation an Employment to break own this kWh base on the percentage shares of capacity for energy creation in New Zealan for ; that is : 54% hyro, 20% gas, 10% geothermal, 7% win, 6% coal, 2% oil an 1% solar. 16 By combining this with ata from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that etails the meian amount of CO 2 emissions from each source of energy generation, (Hyro kg/kWh, Gas kg/kWh, Geothermal kg/kWh, Win kg/kWh, Coal kg/kWh, Oil kg/kWh, Solar /kWh), an by running the appropriate calculations (ie multiplying by the percentage than the quantity of CO 2 emissions for each metho of energy prouction, then aing them together, it can be calculate that an average kilometre for an electric vehicle will prouce kg of CO 2. As such, the function for the emissions for an average car per kilometer travelle shoul the ban be in place, ζ/(y), can be given as the proportion of non EV * ε/(y) + the proportion of EV * , or ζ y 2018 (y) = ( )( * * e ( y) ) + ( y 2018 )( ) As one above for ε(t), ζ(y) can now similarly be escribe as ζ ζ(y)= (y) * c (y) * c (y) (y) p * p ζ (y) = ((0.79 y )( * * e ( y) ) + ( y 2018 )( )) ( * 10 7 * ln(y) * 10 8 ) ( * * e ( y) ) ( * y cos((2πy/11) 5.5) By similarly integrating this efinitely between 2082 an 2018, we can then erive the amount of CO 2, in kg, that can be expecte to be emitte in that time ζ (y) y = * kg Note that because of the complexity of this function, the software struggle to integrate this function. Given the oscillating nature of the cos section of the function, it was omitte from the 14 Fuel Economy, MBIE, Steffen Shlomer et al, 2014,

9 calculation; we estimate that the potential error from numerical integration is likely to be a far greater factor than the error from this omission. CONCLUSION Our preicte estimate for the reuction in carbon ioxie, given as the ifference between the efinite integrals of ε(y) an ζ(y) between 2082 an 2018, is 2.09*10 11 kg, or 2.09*10 8 tonnes if New Zealan was to convert to electrical vehicles. EVALUATION OF ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS Our calculations are limite to our knowlege of the avancement of technology in the ecaes to come. Due to the ifficulty of preicting any futuristic level of innovation, we have ecie to limit our investigation to the current level of technology. ASSUMPTIONS: - Your lifetime is the remaining lifespan of an average 17 year-ol New Zealaner, base on current life expectancy ata - NZ government will immeiately introuce a ban on non-electric vehicles as of NZ government will not interfere with the vehicle market in any other way (i.e no subsiies or monetary contributions) - NZ government will provie the money require to buil the necessary infrastructure to support a fully electric vehicle fleet (i.e power plants, charging stations) - The rate of population growth an vehicle numbers follow the historical trens - We must assume that the eman of electric vehicles in New Zealan if we were to transition to a completely electric fleet can be met by international suppliers at an unfailing rate. - As it is increibly ifficult to preict the shares of energy generation in the future, espite pleges like the Government s % renewable energy target, we have electe to assume that the percentage shares of the respective methos of energy generation will remain constant an can keep up with the eman for power of a completely electrical 17 vehicle fleet As the Nissan Leaf is the most common electrical vehicle in New Zealan, we have base our calculations on one moel. In this way, we reuce the complexity of our moel, allowing us to generate a useful approximation with the available resources. 17 Ministry of Business, Innovation an Employment Sigur Magnusson (2017)

10 LIMITATIONS: - Because electric vehicles are a relatively recent technology, attempting to preict future improvements in efficiency are likely to be very inaccurate. We have therefore chosen to assume that electric vehicles use in New Zealan for the given timeframe will remain constant. Although this is very unlikely, the relatively short time frame reuces the inaccuracy of this assumption Accoring to EHINZ, light vehicles mae up 91% of the motor vehicles in Due to limite information available on other types of vehicles an seeing as light vehicles are a large majority of the entirety, we ecie to focus purely on this component. - We have not taken into account the ifferences in carbon ioxie emissions of prouction of electric an non-electric vehicles, ue to lithium-ion battery prouction for EVs. However, it is likely that improvements in technology will increase the lifespan of batteries, which woul mean that the effects of the ifferences in emissions woul not have a very significant impact. 19 Massey University (2017) 1.pf