Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation
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- Tyler Hodges
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1 Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation Clean Energy Action Presentation to: Sunshine Award Boulder, CO 8 June 2017 Tony Seba
2 A STROLL DOWN Memory Lane
3 5 th AVE NYC 1900 Where is the car? US National Archives : Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900
4 5 th AVE NYC 1913 Where is the horse? George Grantham Bain Collection Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north.
5 TECHNOLOGY Disruption Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
6 What is a Disruption? WHEN A NEW PRODUCT OR SERVICE HELPS create a new market AND significantly weaken, transform, or destroy an existing product, market category / industry
7 FAST FORWARD TO Image: GMAuthority.com
8 Expert Disruption Forecasts AT&T hired McKinsey & Co to forecast cell phone adoption by the year 2000 THEIR (15-YEAR) PREDICTION 900,000 SUBSCRIBERS They were off by a factor of: 120x THE ACTUAL Year 2000 NUMBER WAS 109 million Motorola DynaTAC 8000X from Source: Wikimedia, Source: Economist
9 AT&T Disrupted - while $$ Trillions Created 120,000,000 Actual 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 Forecast AT&T s landline telephony market was disrupted It missed out on multi-trillion dollar opportunities! Sources: Subscriber Data : CTIA Companies: Internet Report Mary Meeker
10 It s usually the experts and insiders who dismiss Disruptive Opportunities There's no chance that the iphone is going to get any significant market share. No chance... Steve Ballmer,CEO Microsoft, 2007 The iphone's impact will be minimal. It will only appeal to a few gadget freaks. Nokia and Motorola have nohing to worry about. Bloomberg Analyst, 2007 It's important that [Internet] expectations aren t cranked too high. The total number of users is still very small...
11 FAST FORWARD TO Image Source: State.me.us
12 Kodak FY 2000: Record Results FY 2000 Financial Results: Revenues: $14 B Operating Earnings: $2.2 B Net Profits: $1.4 B "A great brand, a great balance sheet, cash flow. This is a very smart time to be in the picture business" Daniel Carp, CEO, Kodak Letter to Investors, FY 2000 "Picture-taking at an all-time high worldwide:"(1) Record # of Pictures taken: 80 billion. Record # of Prints ordered: 100 billion Kodak Filed for Bankruptcy Protection Image: GMAuthority.com (1) Kodak, Annual Report 2000, Letter to Investors, Sources: Data and Image : Kodak
13 Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead Market Disruptions? Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
14
15 Technology Cost Curves
16 Computing: Moore s Law ( ) 1Billion x # of transistors doubles (roughly) every two years. Annual improvement rate ~41.4% Logarithmic Scale Exponential growth in # of transistors Source: Wikipedia
17 Projected cost of Li-ion Battery $/kwh Cost of Li-On Battery Storage ($/kwh) $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $- $300/kWh $200/kWh $100/kWh Assumption: 16% /year Technology Cost Curve Source: Clean Disruption
18 Solar PV Costs: DOWN 303X $100/W Learning Curve: 22% 33 /W 303X Image Source: BNEF
19 Technology Convergence
20 Convergence Smartphone Technology convergence in 2007 to make the smartphone possible Data Storage Kryder s Law Hard Disk $ cost per bit down 50% every 18 months Digital Imaging Hendy s Law Pixels per $ - 59% / year Network Capacity Butter s Law of Photonics The $ cost of transmitting a bit decreases by 50% every 9 months Touchscreen, Li-ion batteries, computing, sensors... Source: Wikipedia Image: apple.com apple.com
21 Exponential Market Adoption S-Curve
22 Technology Adoption S-Curve (Color TV % US) ü Tech adoption is not linear but follows an exponential S-Curve Graph Source: Technology Futures, Inc.
23 Technology Adoption S-Curves Accelerating Tech adoption S-Curves is are happening faster! Graph Source: Blackrock
24 Business Model Innovation
25 Business Model Innovation: Ride-Sharing (Uber, Didi, Lyft, Ola...) Uber Bookings > US Taxi Industry Revenues (2016) New York City = 500,000 Ride-Hailing Rides per day (1) Source:
26 Business Model Innovation: AirBnb Marketplace Broker Source: Tesla
27 Business Model Disruption Business Model Innovation is as important & disruptive as Technology Innovation
28
29 CLEAN DISRUPTION OF ENERGY & TRANSPORTATION Batteries Electric Vehicles Autonomous Vehicles Ride-Hailing Solar
30 Batteries / Energy Storage GreenCharge Networks
31 Li-on Battery costs dropping exponentially Laptop Li-on battery costs dropped ~14% per year over 15 years. (1) Investments in battery tech increasing dramatically: 3 multi-trillion $ industries investing: 1. IT/ Electronics 2. Automotive 3. Energy , battery costs dropped at ~16%/year ACCELERATION (1) Clean Disruption Photo: telegraph.uk
32 Investments in Battery Megafactories increasing BYD could ramp up to 34 GWh by matching Tesla s 35 GWh (1) Foxconn and LG Chem could add combined 22 GWh (2) Samsung SDI, Dyson, Total, Bosch, Boston Power, TDK, Apple, Nissan, Daimler, VW, etc. 12+ Megafactories expected to come online by 2020 (3) Tesla may Triple expected output to 105 GWh (cells) / 150 GWh (packs) (4) Tech Cost Curve has accelerated to ~20% ( ) Image Source: Samsung SDI Sources: (1) Reuters, (2) (3) Benchmark Minerals (4) Electrek
33 March 23, 2016 DYSON Developing Electric Car Vaccum maker Dyson to invest 1 billion in batteries over the next five years. Last October, the company acquired solid-state battery maker Sakti3 for $90m, which "developed a battery breakthrough", according to company founder James Dyson (1) Image Sources: The Verge Source: (1) The Guardian
34 Projected cost of Li-On Battery $/kwh Cost of Li-On Battery Storage ($/kwh) $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $- $300/kWh $200/kWh $100/kWh Assumption: 16% /year Technology Cost Curve Source: Clean Disruption
35 Storage Disruption - Grid Scale The grid works like a just-in-time supply chain without inventory Grid: inefficient use of Assets $$ Billions in generating assets used just a few hours per year Ex: ConEd - 32% of Generation assets used < 517 hrs/yr (5.9%) 189 MW used 7 hrs (0.08%) 1 GW used 29 hrs (0.33%) 1 GW used 120 hrs (1.37%) Energy Storage can replace generation assets on the grid Peakers = obsolete Post 2020 there may never be another peaker built in the US. NextEra Energy CEO Jim Robo (2) Sources: (1) Consolidated Edison of New York, (2) GreentechMedia
36 Tesla Inaugurates 20 MW/80MWh Battery System Southern California Edison contracted the system to meet PEAK Demand needs following its Alyson Canynon natural gas leaks. Under concerns of electric reliability risk CA's regulators ordered SCE to rapidly procure utility scale energy storage (1) Feb 1, 2017 Tesla's 80MWh system was completed in 88 days. Image Sources: The Verge Photo Source: Business Insider
37 ENERGY STORAGE Business Model Innovation
38 Business Model Innovation: Storage as a Service Stem and GreenCharge Networks offering storage-as-service to reduce DEMAND CHARGES for businesses Zero-money down, 10 years Lower utility bills by 10-50% (1) Similar business model that made solar skyrocket Sources: (1) Bloomberg
39 Storage Disruption: Residential and Commercial Average American consumes 903 kwh/month ~ 30kWh/day By 2020 it will cost $36.8/month ($1.2/day) for a full day of electricity storage Monthly cost of residential storage Target year -> Purchase cost of battery storage system (US$/kWh) -> $600 $500 $300 $200 $100 $50 SaaS services Hours kwh Storage: Monthly Cost Demand response $4.6 $3.8 $2.3 $1.5 $0.8 $0.4 Avoid peak, buy low & shift usage 4 5 $18.4 $15.3 $9.2 $6.1 $3.1 $1.5 Store all solar self-generation 8 10 $36.8 $30.7 $18.4 $12.3 $6.1 $3.1 Self-sufficiency $73.6 $61.3 $36.8 $24.5 $12.3 $6.1 Full day $110.4 $92.0 $55.2 $ 36.8 $18.4 $9.2 Assumptions: 4% cost of capital (mortgage) over 20 years Source: Clean Disruption
40 Island of Ta'u runs on 100% solar + storage The Pacific Island of Ta'u now runs on 100% solar + storage microgrid. SolarCity installed 1.4 MW of solar and 6 MWh of energy storage (60 Tesla Powerpacks). Nov 23, 2016 The microgrid provides 24/7 power, is cheaper than diesel and ends power rationing and shortages. Key Roadblock was Funding. Implementation took less than 1 year. Source: SolarCity Source: CleanTechnica & SolarCity
41 Every house, business, warehouse, building, factory, parking, device will have smart, connected BATTERIES
42 The Electric Vehicle Disruption Photo: Tesla Motors
43 IS THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE Disruptive? (You always need to ask) Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
44 2013 CAR OF THE YEAR: TESLA MODEL S Best-selling high-end large luxury car in America! (2) Consumer Reports: Best Car EVER! (1) Source: Motor Trends, (1) Consumer Reports, (3_Bloomberg & Tesla
45 But who can afford an Electric Vehicle? Photo: Tony Seba
46 1. Electric Motor - 5X more Energy Efficient Internal Combustion Engine Electric Motor Sources:ICE - DOE, EM Wikipedia, Image Sources: ICE - Tony Seba, Electric - BradMerritt.com
47 2. EVs are 10X cheaper to charge/fuel It costs $15,000 to fill up a (gas) Jeep Liberty over five years (Consumer Reports) An Electric Jeep Liberty would cost $1,565 in electricity Improvements in software and power electronics to increase this >10X Assumptions: 12,000 miles/year Tesla Roadster: 4.6 miles per kwh. Ave retail electricity in the U.S.: 12 /kwh 5 year-cost = (60,000 miles * 0.12 $/kwh) / 4.6 miles/kwh = $1,565. Image Source: jeep.com Sources: Consumer Reports, DOE, Clean Disruption
48 3. Maintenance - Gasoline Car: 2,000+ moving parts (1)
49 3. EVs: 10X cheaper to Maintain ICE (Gas) Vehicle 2,000+ moving parts (1) Electric Vehicle (EV) 18 moving parts (1) Transmission, driveshaft, clutch, valves, differentials, pistons, gears, carburetors, crankshafts... EVs 100X fewer parts Tesla: Infinite Mile Warranty! (2) Source: (1) Baron Funds, (2) Tesla Blog
50 4 EVs Lifetime 2.5x > than ICE EV powertrains can last 500,000 miles (800,000 Km) Tesla (& others) building 1,000,000-mile (1.6m Km) Powertrain That's 5x ICE vehicles (1) (1) RethinkX
51 Anticipating Disruption from Above Electric Vehicles Cost of EV with 200-mile (320 Km) range $80,000 Cost of Electric Vehicle $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- ICE Affordable SUV": $35-$40K Ave ICE Car in US: $33K Ave Low-end ICE car US: $22K Clean Disruption Tony Seba Assumptions: 4 miles/kwh, 50kWh batteries, 16% yearly battery cost improvement, EV Cost = 3X battery Source: Clean Disruption
![January 9 th, 2016 CEO BARRA UNVEILS BOLT EV @CES 2017 Chevy Bolt: 200-mile range Electric Vehicle for $37,500 [unsub] It s more than a car, it s an](/docs-images/95/123530673/images/52-0.jpg "upgradeable platform for new technologies. (1) Car-sharing, new ownership models, automated driving down the road.")
52 January 9 th, 2016 CEO BARRA UNVEILS BOLT 2017 Chevy Bolt: 200-mile range Electric Vehicle for $37,500 [unsub] It s more than a car, it s an upgradeable platform for new technologies. (1) Car-sharing, new ownership models, automated driving down the road. Image Source: Fortune Source: (1) Fortune
53 Tesla Model 3 Record Single-Day Sales for any Product of Any Kind Ever! Tesla Model 3 $ 35,000 Unsubsidized Autopilot (semi-autonomous) 215-mile range 0-60mph in < 6 secs Market reaction: 180,000 cars >$6.3b ordered / reserved first 24h! pipeline first 24h! 0-60 Biggest Crowdfunding Event in History: $400m & counting! Image: Tesla Sources: Tesla,
54 The Autonomous Vehicle Disruption Image: Wikipedia abc7news.com
55 August 25 th, 2016 World's First Self-Driving Taxi Debuts In Singapore The first ever self-driving taxis have started picking up passengers in Singapore. MIT spinoff NuTonomy will be offering rides in 2.5 sqmi business district 1- North. Delphi also announced autonomous trial in Singapore. Image Sources: Renault Photo : The Verge Source: The Verge
56 August 18 th, 2016 UBER's SELF-DRIVING FLEET ARRIVES IN PITTSBURGH "Uber s Pittsburgh fleet, will consist of 100 modified Volvo XC90 SUVs. Uber riders logging 100 million miles per day. Uber can use the data collected from its app to quickly improve its self-driving mapping and navigation systems." (1) When there s no [driver], the cost of taking an Uber anywhere becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle and then car ownership goes away. Uber s CEO (2) Tony Seba Sources: (1) Bloomberg, (2) the Verge, Picture: Uber
57 CB Insights Aug 11 th, Corporations Working on Autonomous Vehicles
58 April 25, 2017 TESLA TO TRANSITION TO LEVEL 5 - FULLY SELF-DRIVING "U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA): Tesla with Autopilot 40% Safer." (1) Jan 2017 Elon Musk: "From Parking Lot in California to Parking Lot in New York without touching controls by Dec 2017." (2) April 2017 Image: Tesla "Level 5 Autonomy in two years [2019]. " (2) Sources: (1) Fortune, (2) Electrek
59 WHAT ABOUT THE COST of Autonomous Vehicles?
60 What an autonomous car sees Graphic Popular Science
61 Exponential Technologies: Machine Vision (LIDAR Sensors) 2012 By the end of 2013 Google announced that the cost of technology in its self-driving car was LIDAR Sensor (for Machine Vision) was The next generation LIDAR was ~$150k $70k $10k By Oct 2014 A SV Startup company announced LIDAR for $1k Image: Wikipedia
62 LIDAR: From $70,000 to $ GEN 1 LIDAR 2016 GEN 2 SOLID STATE LIDAR $1,000 $250 GEN 3 (POSTAGE STAMP) $90 Sources: Quanergy,Clean Disruption
63 Autonomous Vehicles = Computer on Wheels WHAT IS THE Cost Curve of Computing Power TO PROCESS SENSOR INPUT? Image: Copyright Tony Seba
64 Year 2000: World s 1 st 1-TeraFlops Computer ASCI RED - Sandia National Labs Space = 1,600 sq ft (150 m2) Power Consumption = 850 kw Cost = $46 million Image: Extreme Tech Source: Wikipedia
65 Exponential Tech Improvement: GPU NVIDIA Drive PX Dual Tegra X1 GPU Processor 2.3 TeraFlops Power Consumption = 15 W 56,666X improvement Cost = $59 ~1 million X improvement ü Xavier (end 2017): 20 TFlops ü Built for Self-Driving Cars Deep Learning Software ü 1,000x improvement by 2025 Image and Data Sources: NVIDIA
66 Disruption Accelerators Open Source
67 December 16 th 2015 First Person To Build a Self-Driving Car in his GARAGE! "George Hotz built a Self-Driving car with off-the-shelf parts with $50,000 investment. The goal is to sell the selfdriving package for $1,000 per unit."(1) Hotz Open Sources the Software (Open Pilot) and hardware (Comma Neo) needed for self-driving." (2) Nov 2016 Image: Tesla Photo Sources: Bloomberg Sources: (1) Bloomberg (2) VentureBeat
68 Cool! I can and also while NOT driving! BUT WHAT S THE Disruptive Impact? Rodin Thinker jenningswire.com Photo: Tony Seba
69 Transportation As A Service Photo Tony Seba
70 Cars: Huge Waste of Space and Money Cars = 2 nd largest Capital Expense Ave. new car costs = $33k Cars are parked 96% of the time! (1) 4% Asset Utilization is a disruption waiting to happen! Photo: Tony Seba Image: Tony Source: Seba (1) Donald Shoup
71 On Demand + SELF-DRIVING + ELECTRIC: Convergence of Technology & Business Model Innovation Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
72 TaaS - Transport-as-a-Service: On Demand, Electric, Autonomous Transport As A Service (TaaS) Ride-Hailing biz model Electric Vehicle tech Autonomous Vehicle tech Driving time goes from 4% to 40% Vehicle Asset Utilization goes UP 10X Cars can drive 100,000 miles/year (up from 10k miles/yr) Source: (1) Clean Disruption
73 Do the Math: A-EV far cheaper than A-ICE Autonomous Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles can't compete with Autonomous Electric Vehicles. TaaS companies that use A-ICE will either go bankrupt or switch to A- EVs Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
74 TaaS: 4x-10x Cheaper than IO Vehicles Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
75 Technology Adoption S-Curve Technology adoption: S-curves Exponential growth after tipping point Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
76 95% of Passenger Miles TaaS (AEV) by 2030 Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
77 End of ICE & IO abc7news.com
78 U.S Vehicle Fleet Shrinks by 80% Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
79 Annual Demand for New Vehicles Shrinks by 70% Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
80 Disruption of Oil abc7news.com
81 Global Oil Demand Peaks at 100mpd 2020 Drops to 70mpd 2030 Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
82 Up to 70% of Deepwater Oil, Shale Oil, Oil Sands Uncommercial = Stranded Assets Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX
83 The Solar Disruption Image: Tony Seba abc7news.com
84 March 1, 2017 Denmark School generates 50% of energy needs with Solar Solar generates 300MWh of solar, 50% of Copenhagen International School annual energy consumption." Copenhagen is 3 South of Juneau, Alaska.(2) Image: Tesla Photo Sources: FFPL Sources: (1) Daily Planet, (2) Wikipedia
85 Solar PV Costs: DOWN 303X $100/W Learning Curve: 22% 33 /W 303X Image Source: BNEF
86 Market: Solar PV Installed Capacity: UP ~227x 350, ,000 Global Installed Solar PV (MW) 319, , , , , , , ,000 71, ,156 50,000-40,670 23,605 16,229 1,400 1,765 2,235 2,820 3,952 5,364 6,946 9, Solar PV Exponential Market Growth ~40% / year Solar PV installed Capacity Growth ~ 227x Source: EPIA, PV Magazine
87 Can Solar Continue Growing at this Rate? Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
88 Solar Cost Trends VS Conventional Energy
89 Since 1970 Prices for conventional resourcebased energy sources are up 6X - 16X $120 $9.00 $8.00 $100 $7.00 $80 $6.00 $5.00 $60 $4.00 $40 $3.00 $2.00 $20 $1.00 $0 Oil $45.00 $40.00 $35.00 $0.00 Nat Gas $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Coal Nuclear Source: DOE, Clean Disruption
90 Solar Cost Improvement vs. Conventional Energy Oil at $50/bbl Solar PV Cost Improvement relative to: Times improvement ( ) Petroleum 4,795x Nuclear 3,994x Natural Gas 4,478x Coal 1,764x Source: Clean Disruption Since 1970 Solar PV has improved cost by thousands of times relative to conventional forms of energy Note: unsubsidized cost of solar PV Source: Clean Disruption
91 BACK TO SOLAR COST TRENDS: 1- Grid Parity, then 2 - God Parity? Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
92 DB: Grid Parity in 80% Global Markets by 2017 Deutsche Bank: Solar Below Grid Parity in Up to 80% of Global market by 2017 (1) PWC: 69% of Corporations actively pursuing solar purchases (2) Sources: (1) Deutsche Bank (2) PWC
93 July 7 th, 2016 Mandalay Bay installs Largest Rooftop Solar System in US NRG Energy installs 8.3MW solar array on MGM Resort Internationals's Mandalay Bay Convention Center." The system can provide 25% of the entire electricity demand of the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino complex. NRG is the owner of the system and will sell the electricity through a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement to MGM Resorts International." Photo: GM Image Source: Las Vegas Tribune
94 Solar Growth Rate may Accelerate! (TECH S-CURVE) Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
95 Solar GOD Parity Point of No Return
96 God Parity by $ Rooftop Solar < $ Transmission Transmission Costs /kwh 4 /kwh God Parity: cost of (unsub) rooftop solar lower than cost of transmission! Centralized Generation can't compete Obsolete: Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Coal Source: Clean Disruption
97 Every house, business, warehouse, building, factory, shopping center everywhere will have SOLAR Image Source:Tony Seba
98 BUT NOT ALL POWER GENERATION WILL BE ROOFTOP, RIGHT? What about Utility Scale? Photo: Tony Seba Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba
99 Utility Scale Solar > Dropping below 3 /kwh 2016 USA PPAs ~4 /kwh (+/- 1 /kwh) (1) Solar at 5.8 /kwh is competitive with oil at US$10/bbl and gas at US$5/MMBtu (2) /kwh (unsub) & 2.99 /kwh) (3) (4) 2016 Abu Dhabi 2.42 /kwh (unsub) (Sept 16) (5) Sources: (1) GTM Research, (2) University of Cambridge & PWC, (3) El Economista, (4) Cleantechies, (5) RenewEconomy
100 Tucson Electric Solar + Storage PPA at 4.5 /kwh Tucson Electric has signed a PPA for 100 MW solar array plus with a 30 MW / 120 MWh battery storage system to deliver dispatchable solar for "less than" 4.5 /kwh. The solar portion is "less than" 3 /kwh Jan 10, 2017 Conventional Peakers in Arizona produce power at ~20 /kwh Photo: By Zerech CC BY 3.0 Wikimedia : Source: UtilityDive, Electric Light & Power
101 Back to the Future abc7news.com
102 On the Cusp of Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation 2017 We are here US National Archives
103 This is NOT an Energy Transition This is a Technology Disruption Copyright 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba
104 Thank You! Photo: NASAa
105 Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation Clean Energy Action Presentation to: Sunshine Award Boulder, CO 8 June 2017 Tony Seba
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