Disruption of Transportation & Implications for Society

Transcription

1 Disruption of Transportation & Implications for Society National Governors Association Webinar Oct 19th, 2017 Tony Seba

2 A STROLL DOWN Memory Lane

3 th 5 AVE NYC 1900 Where is the car? US National Archives : Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900

4 5 th AVE NYC 1913 Where is the horse? George Grantham Bain Collection Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north.

5 TECHNOLOGY Disruption Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba

6 What is a Disruption? WHEN A NEW PRODUCT OR SERVICE HELPS create a new market AND significantly weaken, transform, or destroy an existing product, market category / industry

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8 Technology Convergence

9 Convergence Smartphone Technology convergence in 2007 to make the smartphone possible Data Storage Kryder s Law Hard Disk $ cost per bit down 50% every 18 months Digital Imaging Hendy s Law Pixels per $ - 59% / year Network Capacity Butter s Law of Photonics The $ cost of transmitting a bit decreases by 50% every 9 months Touchscreen, Li-ion batteries, computing, sensors... Source: Wikipedia Image: apple.com apple.com

10 It s usually the experts, insiders and mainstream analysts who dismiss Disruptive Opportunities There's no chance that the iphone is going to get any significant market share. No chance... Steve Ballmer,CEO Microsoft, 2007 The iphone's impact will be minimal. It will only appeal to a few gadget freaks. Nokia and Motorola have nothing to worry about. Bloomberg Analyst, 2007 It's important that [Internet] expectations aren t cranked too high. The total number of users is still very small...

11 The Disruption of Transportation abc7news.com

12 On Demand + AUTONOMOUS + ELECTRIC: Convergence of Technology & Business Model Innovation Rodin Thinker Photo: Tony Seba

13 Cars: Huge Waste of Space and Money Cars = 2 nd largest Capital Expense Ave. new car costs = $33k Cars are parked 96% of the time! (1) 4% Asset Utilization is a disruption waiting to happen! Photo: Tony Seba Image: Tony Source: Seba (1) Donald Shoup

14 TaaS - Transport-as-a-Service: On Demand, Autonomous, Electric (AEV) Transport As A Service (TaaS) Ride-Hailing (on demand) biz model Electric Vehicle tech Autonomous Vehicle tech Driving time goes from 4% to 40% Vehicle Asset Utilization goes UP 10X Fleet Cars drive 100,000 miles/year (up from 10k miles/yr) Source: (1) Clean Disruption

15 Do the Math: A-EV far cheaper than A-ICE Autonomous Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles can't compete with Autonomous Electric Vehicles. TaaS companies that use A-ICE will either go bankrupt or switch to A- EVs Source: Rethinking Transportation

16 Transportation As A Service (TaaS) On Demand Autonomous Electric Vehicles (AEVs) Owned by FLEETS not individuals

17 TaaS: 4x-10x Cheaper than IO Vehicles Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX

18 95% of Passenger Miles TaaS (AEV) by 2030 Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: RETHINKX

19 Disruption of Auto Industry End of ICE & IO abc7news.com

20 U.S Vehicle Fleet Shrinks by 80% Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: Rethinking Transportation

21 Annual Demand for New Vehicles Shrinks by 70% Source: (1) Clean Disruption Source: Rethinking Transportation

22 Implications of TaaS Disruption abc7news.com

23 TaaS Disruption - Parking Obsolete: 80%+ Vacant Source: (1) Clean Image: Disruption Tony Seba

24 TaaS Disruption Implication: Parking will be Obsolete Car Fleet ~80% smaller 80%- 90% vacant parking spots City Landscape will be Redesigned for the first time in a century. Instead of money-losing parking, cities will be able to build green parks, walkable & social space AND increase the tax base with new business & residential development Source: (1) Clean Image: Disruption Tony Seba

25 TaaS Disruption Implications Financial & Social Financial Saving per Household: $5,600+ / yr U.S. Disposable Income increase by $1 Trillion / year Productivity increase of $1 Trillion / yr - time freed from driving Social: Increased mobility for all Elderly Disabled Young Poor, Unemployed, Underemployed Image: Tony Seba Source: RethinkX

26 Image: Tony Seba TaaS Disruption Implications Environmental & Geopolitical Environmental 80% decrease energy consumption 90% decrease in CO2 emissions Decreased use of materials (20 vs 2000 & 200k vs 500k) Geopolitical Oil Energy Independence Foreign Policy: energy security less critical Source: (1) Source: Clean Image: Disruption RethinkX Tony Seba

27 TaaS Disruption Implications Auto & Infrastructure Parking -> Real Estate Roads / Infrastructure Auto Value Chain Car Insurance Car Financing (Loans / Leasing) Dealerships Repair & Maintenance Shops Materials - Mining Trucking Image: Tony Seba Shipping

28 Policies for managing transportation disruption

29 Policies for Managing A-EV Disruption of Transportation Support for Autonomous-EV testing and adoption Industry standards for passenger data ownership and privacy Open Data and technology initiatives High Definition 3D Mapping

30 Managing transportation disruption Planning strategies for redundant transport, jobs and infrastructure Public education campaigns on the financial, social, health, environmental benefits of TaaS

31 Back to the Future abc7news.com

32 On the Cusp of the Fastest, Deepest, Most Consequential We are here Disruption of Transportation in History

33 This is NOT an Energy Transition This is a Technology Disruption Copyright 2016 Tony Seba Photo: Tony Seba

34 RethinkX.com/Resources Photo: NASAa

35 Disruption of Transportation & Implications for Society National Governors Association Webinar Oct 19th, 2017 Tony Seba