GENERAL AVIATION 2025: A supercomputer with wings. Rene Nardi
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1 GENERAL AVIATION 2025: A supercomputer with wings. October 16, 2018 From 3:00 to 4:00 PM Rene Nardi
2 Work Objective Find a need and fill it To identify new opportunities to revitalize and expand the 4-to-6-seat aircraft market with the introduction of technologically advanced solutions. Sources: Henry J. Kaiser Connect with us socially #NBAA18 2
3 Polling Question #1 In a couple of words, describe what you think light general aviation (piston-engine) would look like in Sources: Henry J. Kaiser Connect with us socially #NBAA18 3
4 Conceptual Analysis Engineering Team Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 4
5 Executive Summary The world is changing faster than you think The piston-engine segment is the natural market point of entry for a new class of electric aircraft The customers needs for a product that is safer, simpler to operate and more comfortable can be addressed with three key technologies: Electrification, Automation and Autonomy We are targeting flying two prototypes by 2021, followed by EIS in 2025 The market can absorb at least 10,000 aircraft per year, over the first ten years of the program Sources: P. Diamandis Connect with us socially #NBAA18 5
6 Market Definition General Aviation includes all aviation, other than military and scheduled commercial airlines. Supports $ 200+ billion in total economic output and one million jobs, in the US It includes over aircraft flying worldwide, ranging from 2-seat training aircraft to intercontinental business jets Piston-Engine Aircraft is the market segment of interest. Sources: GAMA 2017 Annual Report Connect with us socially #NBAA18 6
7 Best-Selling Aircrafts Cessna 172 S Cirrus SR 22 T Diamond DA-40 Tecnan LSA Piper PA 28 Archer Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 7
8 Detailed Discussion Why the piston-engine segment is the right market entry point? Unprecendent innovation Convergence of Technologies Project Roadmap How large is the market? Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 8
9 Piston-Engine aircraft sales has been stagnant for decades 60s and 70s I wish somebody would have told me babe Some day, these will be the good old days 11,000 / year Hope you still love 80s and 90s sales 1,200 / year Sources: GAMA 2017 Annual Report Macklemore/Kesha - InStyle Connect with us socially #NBAA18 9
10 The overall US piston-engine aircraft fleet is in sharp decline Year Qty ,000 a/c ,000 a/c Delta - 51,000 a/c The net average rate of reduction is 1,200 a/c per year Sources: GAMA 2017 Annual Report Connect with us socially #NBAA18 10
11 Absence of significant innovation Beech Bonanza Cessna Piper P Tecnan Sources: enter sources here Cirrus Diamond Connect with us socially #NBAA18 11
12 Polling Question #2 In a nutshell, what are the most important topics to reinvigorate a passion for light general aviation (piston-engine). Sources: Henry J. Kaiser Connect with us socially #NBAA18 12
13 Detailed Discussion Why the piston-engine segment is the right market? Why now? Convergence of Technologies Project Roadmap How large is the market? Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 13
14 Why now? Mobile Technologies Networks, Infrastructure Quantum Computing Cloud Computing Internet of Things Sensors and Wearables Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning General Aviation Voice Assistants Natural Language Processing Human- Machine Interaction Facial, Gesture Recognition Faster Internet 5G, Li Fi Disruptive technologies for the next decade A number of trends are coming together Geo-Spatial Technology Mapping, Navigation New Touch Interface Touch screens 3D touch, Electrification Electric motor Energy Source Convergence of Technologies Sources: Sean Moffitt, Wikibrands Connect with us socially #NBAA18 14
15 Convergence of Technologies Electrification Automation Autonomy #1 #2 #3 Sources: enter sources here Propulsion More reliable, lower costs to operate and sustain, reduced noise and vibration. Inner Loop Process automation, Flight envelop protection to prevent CFIT and loss of control. Outer Loop Autonomous ground maneuvers; Automated take-off and landing; Autonomous flight. Connect with us socially #NBAA18 15
16 Automation and Autonomy When everything is intelligent AUTOMATION Artificial Intelligence / Machine learning Process automation. Anything that is repetitive or has a pattern driven by data will be replaced by AI. AUTONOMY Human-Machine Interaction Face recognition, Gesture, Voice Assistants, Natural Language Processing, Touch Interface, 3D touch screens. Before Starting Engine Check List Starting Engine 1. Preflight... Complete 2. Seats and Seat Belts... Adjust and Lock 3. Brakes... Test and Set 4. Cowl Flaps... Open 5. Fuel Selector... Fullest Tank 6. Lights... OFF 7. Circuit Breakers... Check 8. Clock... Set 9. Altimeter... Set 10. Controls... Free & Correct 11. Flaps... Check 12. Trim... Set for T/O 13. Radios and Electrical Equipment... OFF 14. Master Switch... ON 15. Landing Gear... Handle Neutral...Green DN Light ON 16. Landing Gear Lights, Horn Press to Test 1. Anti-collision Light... ON 2. Mixture... Full Rich 3. Propeller... High RPM 4. Throttle... Full Open 5. Propeller Area... CLEAR 6. Aux. Fuel Pump Switch High for 5 Sec. 7. Aux. Fuel Pump Switch... OFF 8. Throttle... 50% 9. Ignition Key... Start 10. Throttle... Reduce to Idle 11. Oil Pressure... Check 12. Radios...ON, Check Transponder... Standby 14. Fuel Selector... Switch Tanks for Taxi 15. Brakes... OFF 16. Toe Brakes... Check Sources: Sean Moffitt, Wikibrands; Byton Connect with us socially #NBAA18 16
17 Polling Question #3 How comfortable do you feel with an autonomous aircraft? Scale 1 to 5 1 I will not fly in one and 5 Very comfortable Sources: Henry J. Kaiser Connect with us socially #NBAA18 17
18 Electrification - Propulsion and Energy Systems Somethin tells me I am into something good Electric Motors: high efficient electric motors driving open rotors, ducted fans or a propeller. Power Supply: diverse energy storage devices - batteries, capacitors, fuelcells or????? Configurations: high level of comfort for passengers, and new options to properly integrate the electric system components into the airframe. Sources: Gerry Goffin and Carole King Connect with us socially #NBAA18 18
19 A tale of two powerplants Continental IO-550 Siemens SP-260 ICE manufacturers Continental Lycoming Rotax EM Manufacturers Siemens Yasa Emrax Magnix 231 kw Power 260 kw 200 kg Weight 50 kg 1 kw/kg Power to Weight 5 kw/kg 30 % Efficiency 95 % By the hundreds Moving Parts A dozen Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 19
20 The devil is in the details... batteries. Specific Energy : AVGAS 100LL 12,300 Wh / kg Lithium-Ion battery: 250 Wh / kg AVGAS to Li-Ion Specific Energy Ratio: 50 Efficiency: Specific Energy: Piston Engine: 29% AVGAS: Wh / kg Electric Motor : 95% Li-Ion battery: 237 Wh / kg AVGAS to Li-Ion Specific Energy Ratio : Lithium-Metal batteries rated at 450 Wh/kg??. Specific Energy ratio : ~ 8 Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 20
21 Specific Energy (kwh / kg ) Exponential Growth? Lithium sulfur, lithium seawater, fuel cells, super-capacitors, nuclear battery, etc, delivering north of 2 kwh/kg It would seem we are on track to get 1 kwh / kg, by 2022 Specific Energy Ratio ~ Availability (Year)
22 Configuration years ago Those magnificent men in their flying machines Sources: Ron Goodwin, 1965
23 Propulsion System Electric Ducted-Fans Single Propeller Electric Open-Rotors Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 23
24 Fully-Electric Aircraft Architecture Boundary Layer Ingestion 1 x 260 kw Open Rotors 4 x 65 kw = 260 kw Electric-Ducted Fans 2 x 130 kw = 260 kw Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 24
25 High Level Requirements Destination trip: simulates a transportation activity between two regional airports Trip distance: 270 NM with 45 minutes reserve.speed: 190 KTN Aircraft interior for 4 5 occupants Energy source rated at 1 kwh/kg Trip Distance: 270 NM Cruise Speed: 190 KTAS Flight Time: xxxxx (min.) Trip Time: xxxxx (min.) Recharge Time: xxxxx (min.) Total Energy: xxxxx (KWh) Electric motors rated at 5 kw/kg each Sources: GAMA Publication 16 Connect with us socially #NBAA18 25
26 Aircraft preview High aspect ratio, laminar flow wing Advanced composite manufacturing for complex-curved fuselage T-tail Two electric ducted fans Conformable interior, wide cabin for four occupants Two sets of batteries in the wings and a third emergency battery on the fuselage Sources: Connect with us socially #NBAA18 26
27 What if???? 270 NM + 45 min reserve Empty Weight: 2,400 lbs. Fuel load: 250 lbs. 4 Pax: 800 lbs. Operating Weight: 3,450 lbs. MTOW: 3,800 lbs. Empty Weight: 2,050 lbs. Battery load: 1,000 lbs. 4 Pax: 800 lbs. Operating Weight: 3,850 lbs. MTOW: 3,850 lbs. The electric airplane is 400 lbs. or 12% heavier Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 27
28 Detailed Discussion Why the piston-engine segment is the right market? Unprecendent innovation Convergence of Technologies Project Roadmap How large is the market? Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 28
29 Horizon of Innovation Turbo-Prop Piston kwh/kg kwh/kg kwh/kg 6 Pax 450 kw 6 Pax 2 x 225 kw 20?? 3+ kwh/kg 8 Pax 2 x 450 kw kwh/kg 4 Pax 225 kw 2 Pax 60 kw Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 29
30 Polling Question #4 What would be the total annual sales of new small general aviation aircraft considering that we could get back to 1960/1970 sales volume? A. no more than US$ 1 billion B. - $ 2 billion C. - $ 3 billion D. $ 4 billion E. more than $ 5 billion Sources: Henry J. Kaiser Connect with us socially #NBAA18 30
31 Moonshot thinking 10x increase on production rate Return to sales level 100,000 a/c to be delivered between 2025 and 2035 US$ 70 billion of accumulated revenue over 10-year Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 31
32 Project Roadmap Two years to design and build the first prototype First flight in 2021 Four years of flight test Formally launch the program in 2023 Start production in 2025 Sources: enter sources here Connect with us socially #NBAA18 32
33 Conclusions This is not an evolution of your product. It s a substitution of your product There is a need for a new product that is safer, simpler to operate and more comfortable Electrification, Automation and Autonomy are the key technologies needed for business transformation EIS in 2025 or as soon as the 1 kwh/kg energy source becomes available China, India and Africa are newcomers to a market that can demand as many as 10,000 aircraft per year, for as long as 10 years Total market value would reach US$ 70 billion in 10 years, not considering MRO Sources: John Casesa Connect with us socially #NBAA18 33
34 Thank you Rene Nardi
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