India Chem 2018: Competitive Feed stocks and Integration in Petrochemical Crackers. 5 th Oct 2018

Transcription

1 India Chem 2018: Competitive Feed stocks and Integration in Petrochemical Crackers 5 th Oct 2018

2 Forward Looking Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by their use of words like plans, expects, will, anticipates, believes, intends, projects, estimates or other words of similar meaning. All statements that address expectations or projections about the future, including, but not limited to, statements about the strategy for growth, product development, market position, expenditures, and financial results, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events. The companies referred to in this presentation cannot guarantee that these assumptions and expectations are accurate or will be realised. The actual results, performance or achievements, could thus differ materially from those projected in any such forward-looking statements. These companies assume no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward looking statements, on the basis of any subsequent developments, information or events, or otherwise. 2

3 Reliance at a glance R&M Largest single refinery site with robust configuration Petchem Integrated petrochemicals with presence in fastest growing markets E&P Developing deep water resources in Oil & Gas Retail Growing presence in retail & supply chain Jio Fastest growing mobile data network (4G) Media Wide mass reach with media and entertainment 2 nd 4 th 2 nd 5 th Global Rankings PX PTA Polyester PP US$ 48.4 Billion Annual Revenue 8 th MEG US$ 7.0 Billion Cash Profit US$ 5.2 Billion Net Profit FY Annual Report 3

4 Agenda 1. Petrochemical Cracker Feed Options 2. Cracker Feedstock across globe 3. Feedstock price trends 4. Feed Economics 5. Reliance s Ethane Project 4

5 Cracker Feedstock - Options Gas Cracker feed Ethane ( C2H6) Propane ( C3H8) Butane ( C4H10 Normal/iso Butane) Refinery Off Gas Liquid Cracker feed Condensates Paraffinic Naphtha (Paraffin content > 65 %) Can be mixed with other naphtha like Aromatic / High Paraffinic Naphtha Gas Oil : Diesel can be cracked to produce Olefins Heavier hydrocarbons 5

6 Typical yields from different feeds Feedstock Type Ethylene Propylene Crude C4's Pygas Hydrogen Fuel Gas Fuel Oil TOTAL Ethane 80.4% 1.7% 2.8% 2.5% 6.2% 6.2% 0.3% 100.0% Propane 42.0% 17.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% 27.0% 1.0% 100.0% N-Butane 40.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 22.0% 2.0% 100.0% LT Naphtha 31.0% 16.0% 9.0% 19.0% 2.0% 19.0% 4.0% 100.0% Gasoil 21.0% 15.0% 9.0% 19.0% 1.0% 10.0% 25.0% 100.0% 6

7 Cracker Feedstocks by regions Mn MT Ethylene Americas Europe Asia ME / Africa Ethane Butane Gas Oil Propane Naphtha MTO/CTO Source: IHS Markit Feedstock extractability & availability affects Cracking feed mix 7

8 Feedstock changes 2017 Ethylene Production = 153 Mn MT/yr Propane 9% Butane 5% 47% in 2012 Naphtha 42% 64 MMTPA Propane 8% 2022 Ethylene Forecast = 186 Mn MT/yr Butane 5% Naphtha 39% 71 MMTPA Gas Oil 3% Gas Oil 3% 35% in 2012 Ethane 38% 57 MMTPA Source: IHS Markit Others 1% Coal to Olefins 1% Methanol to Olefins 1% Methanol to Propylene 0.00% Ethane 40% Source: IHS Markit 74 MMTPA Others 2% Methanol to Olefins 1% Methanol to Propylene 0.03% Coal to Olefins 2% 8

9 Feedstock changes- India 2017 Ethylene Production = 5.9 Mn MT/yr Other 2% 2022 Ethylene Forecast = 7.7 Mn MT/yr Other 1% Naphtha 44% Ethane 46% Naphtha 43% Ethane 51% Butane 1% Propane 7% Source: IHS Markit Butane 1% Propane 4% Source: IHS Markit Additional Naphtha based capacity required to absorb national surplus. Propane (LPG) share expected to reduce. Additional Ethane capacity expected given its competitiveness at higher crude levels 9

10 US Cracker Startup (First wave) Sr No Plant Feed Location Capacity (KTA) Startup 1 Oxychem /Mexichem JV Ethane Ingleside 550 Mar-17 2 Dow Ethane Freeport 1,500* Sep-17 3 Chevron Phillips Ethane Cedar Bayou 1,500 Mar-18 4 ExxonMobil Ethane Baytown 1,500 July Indorama Ventures PCL Ethane Lake Charles 420 Q FPC USA (Formosa) Ethane Point Comfort 1,252 Q4 18/Q Shin Etsu Ethane Plaquemine 500 Q4 18/Q SASOL Ethane Lake Charles, LA 1550 Q4 18/Q1 19 Dow has started construction to expand new cracker to 2000 KTA Source: ICIS 10

11 US Cracker Startup (Second wave) Sr No Plant Feed Location Capacity (KTA) Startup 1 Lotte-Westlake Ethane Lake Charles, Louisiana 1000 H Bayport Polymers (Total- Borealis-Nova JV) Ethane Port Arthur 1000 H Shell Ethane Monaca 1500 H PTTGC* Ethane Belmont, OH Formosa* Ethane Louisiana * Investment decision/approvals pending Source: ICIS, IHS 11

12 Crackers in Other Regions Company Region Country City Process Capacity Startup Nova Chemical North America Canada Sarnia EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) Fujian Gu Lei Petro Northeast Asia China Zhangzhou EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues Hengli Petrochemical Northeast Asia China Dalian EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues Huatai Shengfu Northeast Asia China Ningbo EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) Liaoning Bora PC Northeast Asia China Liaoning EPB/Naphtha Shandong Yuhuang Northeast Asia China Dongming EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues Shouguang Luqing PC Northeast Asia China Shouguang EPB/Naphtha Sinochem Quanzhou Northeast Asia China Quanzhou EPB/Naphtha Sinopec Hainan R&C Northeast Asia China Hainan Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues Sinopec-KPC PC JV Northeast Asia China Zhanjiang EPB/Naphtha SP Chemicals Northeast Asia China Taixing Ethane/Propane Wanhua Chemical Northeast Asia China Yantai EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) Zhejiang PC Northeast Asia China Zhoushan EPB/Naphtha HPCL Mittal Energy Indian Subcontinent India Bhatinda Naphtha Gachsaran PC Middle East Iran Gachsaran Ethane Ilam PC Middle East Iran Ilam EPB/Naphtha GS Caltex Northeast Asia Korea (South) Yeosu EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues Hyundai Chemical Northeast Asia Korea (South) Daesan EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues LG Chem Northeast Asia Korea (South) Yeosu Naphtha PRPC RC (Petronas Rapid) Southeast Asia Malaysia Pengerang EPB/Naphtha ORPIC Middle East Oman Sohar EPB/Naphtha KPI CIS & Baltic States Other CIS & Baltic States Karabatan Ethane Turkmengas CIS & Baltic States Other CIS & Baltic States Kiyanly EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) NKNK CIS & Baltic States Russia Nizhnekamsk Naphtha Novy Urengoy GCC CIS & Baltic States Russia Novy Urengoy Ethane ZapSibNeftekhim CIS & Baltic States Russia Tobolsk EPB/Naphtha PTTGC Southeast Asia Thailand Map Ta Phut Naphtha Nova/SABIC North America United States Geismar Ethane/Propane Long Son PC Co. Southeast Asia Viet Nam Ba Ria-Vung Tau EPB/Naphtha Source: IHS * Some projects, especially in China may be delayed/ scrapped 12

13 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Cracker Feedstock Prices $ / MT Naphtha MOP-S ($/MT) Propane CP ($/MT) 1400 US Ethane- Mt Belvieu ($/MT Converted) Crude Brent ($/bbl) Cost Control through Feed flexibility New Chemistries MTO/CTO, PDH Crude ($/bbl) 0 0 Feedstock price variability - impacts Cracker Margins 13

14 SEA Ethylene Margins ($ / MT) Asia Cracker Margins Integrated Ethane Cracker Integrated Propane Cracker Integrated Naphtha Cracker High Butadiene co-product credit Gap Between Ethane & Naphtha/LPG large at higher crude levels Seasonal Propane Winter Spike US Ethane Export Terminal Start-up Margins Squeezed as feed cost rises Fluctuations in global crude prices lead to volatility in Naphtha & Propane feedstock prices. US Ethane prices firm up when start of new cracker adds to demand/ supply constraints prevail in US NGL market 14

15 Ethylene Cash Cost curve $/MT 1600 Apr-13 Aug-15 May Brent Crude $/bbl JKT & Smaller European Naphtha Crackers CTO & MTO Asia & European Naphtha Crackers Middle East Gas Crackers US Gas Crackers Million MT Source: RIL Internal 100 $/bbl Crude 50 $/bbl Crude

16 Reliance s Ethane Project Only company to move Ethane from US to Asia 16

17 Reliance s Ethane Project Ethane Terminal at US Gulf Coast Ethane VLEC (46 KT) GCPTCL Jetty at Dahej NMD Cracker Dahej Nagothane Pipeline (DNEPL) 480 Km DMD Ethane Tank (90KT) DMD Cracker HMD Cracker JMD 17

18 Thank you 18