Petrochemicals: Opportunities and Challenges
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1 Petrochemicals: Opportunities and Challenges Sandeep Poundrik Joint Secretary (Refineries) Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas 5 th October,
2 Petrochemical Growth World scenario mmboe: million barrels of oil equivalent Source: IEA; Nexant; A.T. Kearney analysis Petrochemical demand grows much faster than energy (Mainly oil) 2
3 Petrochemical Intensity Formosa, Taiwam : 38% Fujian, China : 38% Exxon, Jurong/ Pulau Ayer Chawan : 20% RIL (only Jamnagar) : 15% Source: HIS Markit 3
4 Indian Economy Overview
5 Petrochemicals Growth Indian scenario Import: 2017 Top 87 Petrochemicals and Chemicals Volume: 14 MMT Value : Rs77,900 crore Top 15 Petrochemicals and Chemicals Volume: 5.3 MMT Value : Rs36,092 crore World average Indian Polymers demand grows at 1.5 times of GDP Source: ICIS Source: CPMA 5
6 Strong linkage with GDP. Projected Demand for Polymers Demand to be 48 MMT compared to 14.6 MMT at present to match world average of 32 kg/capita Increase in 1 kg/capita consumption requires a cracker of 1.5 MMTPA capacity every year. Thus the Gap is huge and challenge enormous Requires comprehensive plan for location of crackers, infrastructure of import of feedstock and downstream application hubs. 6
7 Historical Domestic Demand of Major Petrochemicals (KTPA) End Product Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Polypropylene (PP) HDPE LLDPE LDPE Polyether Polyols Polycarbonate (PC) Styrene-Butadiene Rubber Ethylene-vinyl Acetate (EVA) Butyl Rubber Acetic Acid Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS) Other (Basic Major Petrochemicals) Total (Basic Major Petrochemicals) Source: Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals (MoCF)
8 Demand Forecast Major Products Product 1 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) 2 Polypropylene (PP) 3 LLDPE+HDPE +LDPE Yr 2017 Capacity Yr 2025 Yr 2030 Yr 2040 Supply Demand Gap Installed+ under Construction Demand Demand Demand (221) MEG SBR/ Butyl Rubber Acetic Acid Butyl Acrylate Number in parenthesis ( ) show surplus
9 Petrochemical Demand- Historical and Forecasted
10 Role of Oil PSU s in Petrochemicals Successful integration to diversify into Petrochemicals Major Oil and Gas PSU s have announced significant investments in Petrochemicals Expected to save USD 7 billion over entire life cycle by reducing imports
11 Owner Nos. Feedstock Design Capacity (KTPA Ethylene) GAIL 1 C2 860 HPL 1 Naphtha 700 PNCP 1 Naphtha 857 RIL 5 Gas+Naphtha 3580 BCPL 1 Gas+Naphtha 220 OPaL 1 Gas + Naphtha 1060 Total
12 Existing Petrochemical Complexes
13 Installation Feed stock Ethylene capacity, KTA Products RRL, Rajasthan LPG + Naphtha 900 LLDP/HDPE/PP/ BUTADIENE/ BTX HPCL- GAIL JV, Ethane + Naphtha Kakinada RRPCL, Ratnagiri Off gases+ LPG + Naphtha BORL Multiple feeds (Naphtha/ Fuel gas/ LPG/ HCB) BPCL-M 1000 MRPL 1000 Total (10 Nos) Upcoming Crackers up to LLDP/ HDPE/ PP/ PVC/ MEG/ BTX 5 X 1500 LDPE/ LLDP/ HDPE/ MEG/ PP/ PVC/ PX-PTA/ EPR/ Acrylate /Styrene 2000 LLDP/ HDPE/ PP/ Styrene Cracker capacity will be tripled by
14 Challenges of Petrochemical Industry Availability of Feed stocks Availability of Technologies Capital Economy of scale Trade Flows from feed stock advantaged countries Investment for 1500 KTPA ethylene cracker 100% Gas feed: Rs 40,000 crore Dual feed : Rs 45,000 crore
15 Maximising Feedstock Availability: Options Alternative feed stock: Ethane / Propane/ Condensates/ LPG / Methanol may be explored for olefins Propylene by Propane Dehydrogenation(PDH)route. Methanol can be produced from Coal/ Petcoke and deasphalted residue. Gas to Olefin Technology: emerging Technology Joint venture with feed stock suppliers Crackers to be designed for multiple feed stock Integration with petrochemicals in any new or expansion of existing Refinery to ensure feed stock advantage and Infrastructure integration At current crude oil price, Ethane can be considered as feed Need to focus on alternative feedstock and infrastructure for import of feedstock 15
16 Emerging trends & Drivers Refining Sector Refining industry at Crossroads Plan more Refining Capacity Reduce Carbon footprint Reduction in emission intensity of GDP by 33-35% Reduce Specific Energy Consumption Reduce water footprint Reduce dependency on ground water /river Reduction in Crude Oil Import Environmental Issues Reduction in import dependence by 10% by 2022 Move away from Petcokeand Fuel Oil Product Quality Diversification / Readiness incase of Disruption Integration with Petchem Integration with Fertilizers 16
17 Monetisation of standard / return streams (Pygas, Naphtha) Integrated Management of Utilities and H 2 Hedges both segments against cyclical performance Indicative IRR of Typical configuration: Standalone Refinery: 11-12% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemicals: 16-17% Refinery Petrochemical Integration Advantages Refinery FCCU CDU/VDU CRU Propylene Off-gases C4 Raffinate Naphtha LPG H 2 PFO C9 Stream C7/C8 Aromatics Petrochemical Steam Cracker Pygas Aromatics Ethylene Propylene PP PE Butadiene MEG Styrene PVC PO ABS Benzene Toluene PX/PTA PET PF Epoxy Polyurethane 17
18 18
19 Upcoming Greenfield Projects West Coast Refinery Project: Rs2.3 lakh crore (46 billion USD) IOCL: 50%; BPCL: 25% & HPCL: 25%; Refining capacity: 60 MMTPA Target Products: Commodity Petrochemicals: LLDPE, PVC, PX/PTA, HDPE, PP Niche Petrochemicals:, EPR, Acrylate, SAP, LDPE Chemicals: Sulphuric Acid, Caustic Soda Fuels: MS, HSD, ATF Petrochemical complex, Kakinada, AP Partners: HPCL & GAIL Petrochemicals (Feed: Imported Ethane & domestic Naphtha): BTX, LLDPE, HDPE, PP, PVC, MEG Project cost: Rs crore Rajasthan Refinery Project Govt. of Rajasthan: 26% & HPCL: 74% Refining capacity: 9 MMTPA Petrochemicals:BTX, LLDPE, HDPE, PP, Butadiene Project cost: Rs 43,129 crore 19
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