May Feedstock Disruptions in Chemicals chains necessitate business model innovation

Transcription

1 May 2014 Feedstock Disruptions in Chemicals chains necessitate business model innovation

2 Strategy& has based findings on its proprietary feedstock model Strategy& global feedstock model Feedstock developments and petrochemicals supply Macro market drivers and global petrochemicals demand Feedstock sources Cracker by cracker Reformers On-purpose capacity Demand projections Price projections Strategy& 1

3 The chemicals industry is facing a number of game changing discontinuities Supply trends Shale Gas in the United States, Associated Gas in Irag and Russia leading to increased NGL supply Demand trends Sustained growth in the chemicals industry driven by Asia Coal and Shale Gas in China leading to increased supply of light olefins Discontinuities in consumer end-market Tightening aromatics supply Commoditization eroding margins in performance and specialty chemicals Strategy& 2

4 Going forward, these trends will have implications on supply/ demand of petrochemicals building blocks and business models C1 methanol chain Supply trends Demand trends C2 chain C3 chain C4 chain Aromatics chain What are the supply / demand discontinuities and what is the impact on margins? How are the business models implications of these discontinuities? Strategy& 3

5 C1 methanol chain Methanol market is driven by China: MTO/P, fuel blending and capacity additions are the key market drivers Gas Coal Methanol Derivatives 1) Olefins Methanol supply (capacity, MTPA) Methanol demand (by end-use, MTPA) 96 48% 10% 15% 27% +8%-10% 10-12% % 8% 14% 25% Speculative capacity China Others Operating Rate 55% 70% 75% 80% 63 11% 6% 83% +11% 45% 20% 5% % 16% 62% MTO/MTP Gasoline/ Fuel Blending Others Mostly in China E E Impact on methanol price 1) MTBE, Formaldehyde, Acetic Acid, Chloromethanes, others Source: Strategy& analysis Likely to be capped in Base Case risk of downward pressure in case of significant operating rate increase in China Strategy& 4

6 C1 methanol chain For pure methanol players, moving into MTP can be attractive in case of major increase in methanol supply 0r C3 prices Propylene vs. methanol prices and margins $US/t Propylene $US/t Better margins per ton for MTP players Last 2 years Better margins per ton for pure methanol players Methanol $US/t Source: Strategy& analysis Strategy& 5

7 C1 methanol chain In such market conditions, methanol players along the value chain should consider new strategic options Gas Coal Methanol Derivatives 1) Olefins / Polyolefins Business model considerations North Increased capacity Integration into olefins (MTO/P)? Leveraging low cost gas to increase capacity Middle East Integration into olefins (MTO/P) Consider forward integration into olefins Asia Pacific Coal-based technology Integration into derivatives MTO technology Improving technology (cost, environmental impact, water usage) Capture derivative margins Gas-based players Coal-based players 1) MTBE, Formaldehyde, Acetic Acid Source: Strategy& analysis Strategy& 6

8 C2 chain Ethylene is expected to be in oversupply as a result of growing light feedstock availability NGL Naphtha Bio Ethylene Global Ethylene Industry Cost Curve Oil Price at USD 90 / bbl, 2025 Ethylene derivatives Middle East North, Asia Pacific & Other Regions Impact on ethylene price Likely to continue on a downward trend due to increased supply Source: Strategy& analysis Strategy& 7

9 C2 chain These disruptions will result in changes in the ethylene chain business models NGL Naphtha Ethylene Ethylene commodity derivatives Ethylene specialty derivatives Business model considerations North Value Chain integration with NGL Securing low cost supply Tighter integration to refineries Technology/Innovation in intra-polymer substitution Moving to higher value added products Asia Pacific Increased capacity Verbund type plays capturing market growth Middle East Increased liquid-based Downstream derivatives Move towards liquids and job creation through downstream integration Strategy& 8

10 C3 chain Propylene is expected to be in shortage in the future upwards price pressure is squeezing derivatives margins C3 chain supply and demand dynamics NGL Naphtha Propylene Propylene derivatives Propylene demand (MTPA) Propylene vs. polypropylene prices 79 12% +6% % Shortage China % 21% 22% 38% 17% 18% 35% Others 1.0 PP - Propylene Price ratio Propylene (reference) E Impact on propylene price Likely to sustain high levels Impact on polypropylene margin Under downward pressure vs. propylene Strategy& 9

11 C3 chain These disruptions will result in changes in the propylene chain business models NGL Naphtha Propylene Propylene commodity derivatives Propylene specialty derivatives Business model considerations North On-purpose production Securing captive supply: On-purpose technologies Bio routes Tighter integration to refineries Technology/Innovation to value-added derivatives Innovation driven value added derivatives Asia Pacific Alternative feedstocks Technology innovation for improving economics of alternative feedstocks Middle East Increased liquid-based Downstream derivatives Move towards liquid feedstock and job creation through downstream integration Strategy& 10

12 C4 chain Butadiene & derivatives have significant overcapacity this is expected to improve for Butadiene going forward Butadiene SBR / BR End products (tires) Supply & demand ( , Million tons) % % % Supply & demand ( , Million tons) % % % Global market size ( , USD billion) e e e Excess Cap ME & Africa s Asia Pacific Impact on butadiene price To recover Impact on SBR/BR price To remain under downward pressure Note: Only 50% of additional planned capacity in Butadiene and SBR / BR is assumed to come online by 2018 Source: Chemsystems; Strategy& analysis Strategy& 11

13 C4 chain Recent demand and supply movements have resulted in significant price fluctuations in Butadiene and derivatives Butadiene prices USD / ton, SBR prices USD / ton, ,000 4,000 3,500 South East Asia USA 3,500 South East Asia USA 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1, Source: Nexant; Strategy& analysis Strategy& 12

14 C4 chain Vulnerability of SBR / BR producers might result in colocation of entire value chains closer to demand centers Butadiene SBR / BR End products (tires) Naphtha route / onpurpose producers 1 Pure play rubber producers 2 Pure play tire producers Integrated synthetic rubber Producers 3 4 Integrated tire producers Source: Strategy& analysis Strategy& 13

15 Aromatics chain BTX demand growth, particularly in Asia and Middle East, is outpacing capacity additions BTX chain supply and demand dynamics Reformate Pygas Coal Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes Derivatives End products Supply (CAGR ) Demand (CAGR ) Benzene 1% Global 1% East Asia 2% Middle East 0% North 0% Western 2% Other 3% Global 4% East Asia 5% Middle East 12% 0% North 1% Western Paraxylene 3% 2% 5% 1% 5% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% Global East Asia Source: Strategy& analysis Middle East North Western Other Global East Asia Middle East North Western Strategy& 14

16 Aromatics chain Feedstock constricting supply from steam crackers, while environmental regulations are limiting refinery output Potential benzene shortage from steam crackers In mmtpa 80% Utilization rates of refining processes Global basis Shortage Steam Cracking Benzene and PX price spreads US prices, in USD / ton $900 $600 $300 Benzene-Naphtha Spread PX-Naphtha Spread 60% 40% Reformate extraction TDP (swing capacity) $0 Q11995 Q11996 Q11997 Q11998 Q11999 Q12000 Q12001 Q12002 Q12003 Q12004 Q12005 Q12006 Q12007 Q12008 Q12009 Q12010 Q12011 Q12012 Q12013 Strategy& 15

17 Aromatics chain These developments have implications for all players across the value chain; many opportunities lie upstream Reformate Pygas Coal Benzene, Toluene, Xylenes Derivatives End Products Key business model considerations 1 Refiners and petrochemical players Build commercial decisionmaking capabilities to maximize value of each molecule based on market conditions 2 Integrated aromatics players Build trading capabilities Build storage capabilities 3 Derivatives players Invest in technologies that can produce derivatives from C2/C3 value chains (e.g. MAN, MMA) Invest in reformate extraction 4 End product manufacturers R&D to maintain margins Expand and consolidate within regions Strategy& 16