The Global Petrochemical Industry Landscape

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1 The Global Petrochemical Industry Landscape Leaders of Tomorrow Dr Andrew Spiers Senior Vice President 27 Copyright by Nexant Inc All rights reserved

2 Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory Strategic Planning Project Feasibility Nexant Thinking Nexant Training Energy Independent Expert/Litigation and Expert Witness Commercial and Market Analysis Merger and Acquisition Project Finance Technology Evaluation and Management 1

3 The industry has experienced huge change over the last 20 years or so as Asian and Middle Eastern producers increasingly dominate Significant crude oil price volatility Three major petrochemical margin fly-ups Size of industry tripled Massive new capacity additions China s share of petrochemical consumption has grown from 3 percent to nearly 20 percent Feedstock driven shift to the Middle East Emergence of private equity Significant portfolio restructuring by many of the original players Commoditisation of many specialties and grades Diversification of feedstock base: shale gas, coal, renewables 2

4 Change is the only constant CHANGING STRUCTURE Downstream Shift Clusters/Mega Sites Refinery Petchem Integration GEOGRAPHIC SHIFTS Population/Market Shift to Asia Geographic Shift of Investment Emergence of China Changing ME attractiveness PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY CHANGING BUSINESS M&A Activity Increase Emergence of New Global Majors CHANGING FEEDSTOCKS Changes in Competitiveness U.S./Middle East Coal/Shale Gas in Asia? Renewables Oil Price Influences 3

5 That Change is Continuing Today! China slowdown: Knock on effect throughout Asia and further afield Drop in Oil price: Impact on petrochemicals Increased competition with shale oil/gas Changing Geopolitical landscape: Limited opportunities to increase supply from advantaged gas More emphasis on heavier feedstock slates/refinery integration; implications for byproducts Other regions compete without cheap feedstock so business must look to different sources of competitive advantage Greater integration and downstream investments Potential emergence of Iran as a major player What are the effects of these changes on your business? 4

6 Million tons per year The seven basic building blocks relative sizes of the main derivatives, MeOH Source: Nexant Other EDC EO PE Other PP Other Cumene Styrene Other BX Other Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Benzene Toluene Xylenes Syngas PTA NH 3 6

7 Global events and China impact polyethylene prices Asian PE Prices, (dollars/ton) Flyup China Stops Buying Multiple Supply Problems End of Supply Problems Asian Financial Crisis Katrina September 11 Crude oil soars Gulf War 1 SARS Gulf War 2 Financial Crisis Lower oil prices; slowdown Planned Outages Turnarounds Unplanned Outages Explosions, Hurricanes, etc. LDPE LLDPE HDPE Source: Nexant 7

8 Commodity chemicals competitiveness criteria Parameter Size Key Objectives Capture economies of scale Location Access to low cost feedstocks/deficit markets Technology Cost advantage/product differentiation Integration Synergies with adjacent facilities 9

9 Ethylene Cash Cost ($/ ton ethylene) The shale gas effect has resulted in a structural change in global ethylene competitiveness. Middle East has strong advantage; limited by reduced new low cost feedstocks Global Ethylene Cost Curve, Note: * Mainly includes ethane and E/P crackers in Venezuela, Africa, W. Canada, Malaysia and Australia. ME Ethane and E/P Others Ethane and E/P* North America Ethane, E/P, Mixed Feed Asia/Naphtha Asia/Western Europe Naphtha Ethylene Cumulative Capacity (million tons) 10

10 Ethylene Cash Cost (Current U.S. dollars per ton ethylene) Lower oil pricing resulting in a significant improvement in naphtha cracking competitiveness Global ethylene production cost curves at different crude oil scenarios (future) Naphtha & Other Liquids feedstock cracking Oil Price Scenario (per barrel) $ Ethane & Other lighter Feedstock cracking $100 $70 $ Ethylene Cumulative Capacity (million tons) 11

11 Regional petrochemicals trends Changing dynamics but familiar themes U.S. Lighter feedstocks off RPI Export markets Capital costs Product differentiation Heavier feedstocks Export markets Integration Product differentiation China Diversified off RPI feedstocks Economic growth Environmental issues Product differentiation 12

12 What can we expect to see in the Middle East over the next decade? Some industry consolidation in bulk petrochemicals markets. The sector is expected to be dominated by only relatively few companies longer-term. Continued cyclicality Middle East petrochemical base is set to be broadened further. Product diversification will be supported by foreign technology partners and utilisation of heavier feedstocks Significant M&A activity to continue: Oil & gas rich players in the Middle East likely to acquire further businesses in other geographies Significant feedstock changes: Limited opportunities to increase supply from advantaged gas More emphasis on heavier feedstock slates/refinery integration; implications for by-products Other regions compete without cheap feedstock so business must look to different sources of competitive advantage Greater integration and downstream investments Significantly higher domestic demand for products 13

13 Nexant, Inc. 1 King s Arms Yard, London, EC2R 7AF Telephone: Facsimile: This report ( Report ) was prepared by Nexant Ltd ( NEXANT ), for the use of GPCA ( CLIENT ) in its consideration of whether and how to proceed with the subject of this Report. Except where specifically stated otherwise in the Report, the information contained herein was prepared on the basis of information that is publicly available or was provided by the CLIENT or by a third party, and the information has not been independently verified or otherwise examined to determine its accuracy, completeness or financial feasibility. Neither NEXANT, CLIENT nor any person acting on behalf of either assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of or for damages resulting from the use of any information contained in this Report. NEXANT does not represent or warrant that any assumed conditions will come to pass. This Report is current as of the date herein and NEXANT has no responsibility to update this Report. This Report is integral and must be read in its entirety. The Report is submitted on the understanding that the CLIENT will maintain the contents confidential except for the CLIENT s internal use. The Report should not be reproduced, distributed or used without first obtaining prior written consent by NEXANT. This Report may not be relied upon by others. San Francisco New York Houston Washington London Frankfurt Bahrain Singapore Bangkok Shanghai Kuala Lumpur

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