PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM SRI INTERNATIONAL Menlo Park, California

Transcription

1 PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM SRI INTERNATIONAL Menlo Park, California Abstract Process Economics Program Report No. 169 REFINERY/CHEMICALS INTERFACE (January 1985) Demand for most major refinery products is declining throughout the industrialized world, and refining capacity, particularly that upstream, is already underutilized. At the same time, crude slates are becoming progressively heavier and there is a general trend toward removal of lead from the gasoline pool. In contrast with the demand in the refining industry, the demand for the major olefins--ethylene and propylene--will increase significantly over the next decade. At the same time, In the United States in particular, availability of natural gas liquids--currently the predominant olefins source--will decline or at best remain static. To some extent these trends conflict. The first purpose of this study, therefore, is their quantification. Of particular interest to the hydrocarbons Industry is the effect these trends will have on refinery capacity utilization and on the availability, production cost, and transfer price of petrochemical feedstocks and coproducts. The tendency In the United States toward heavier feedstocks suggests possible economic advantages In integrating new olefins production into existing underutilized refineries. This study examines all of these topics in depth. PEP'83 DG

2 Report No. 169 REFINERY/CHEMICALS INTERFACE by DONALD GREENAWAY I I f-z 0 m A private report by the January 1985 PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM Menlo Park, California 94025

3 For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the SRI programs specializing in marketing research. The CHEMICAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers most major chemicals and chemical products produced in the United States and the WORLD PETROCHEMICALS Program covers major hydrocarbons and their derivatives on a worldwide basis. In addition, the SRI DIRECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCERS services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, product, and plant for the United States and Western Europe.

4 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION MAJOR CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY The Problem... 4 The Products--Major Refinery Trends... 4 The Products --Ethylene and Propylene... 5 The Feedstocks... 6 The Existing Operable Conversion Refineries... 8 Refining Trends... 9 Producing Petrochemical Feedstock in :t Feedstock Comparisons--Existing Flexible Plants... Feedstock Comparisons--New Plants Integrated Facilities Variable Cost Analysis... '1; New Units... Logistics of Integration INSTALLED CAPACITY U.S. Refining Capacity U.S. Ethylene Capacity SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS Major Refinery Products Gasoline Middle Distillates Residual Fuel Oil and Coke Summary of Product Slate Changes Crude Oil Supply and Price Major Olefins Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Olefins Feedstocks REFINING OPERATIONS Refinery Processes Primary Fractionation Conversion Processing Fluid Catalytic Cracking Alkylation Hydrocracking iii

5 CONTENTS 5 REFINING OPERATIONS (continued) Catalytic Reforming... Isomerization... Use of Butanes in Gasoline... Thermal Processes... Refinery Operations in Operations in General... Sensitivity to Octane... Sensitivity to Additives... Sensitivity to Heavier Crudes... Refinery Propylene... Refinery Economics... Petrochemical Feedstock Production... 6 OLEFINS OPERATIONS... Process Background... Pyrolysis and Cooling... Compression and Acid Gases Removal... Subcooling and Products Separation... Refrigeration Pyrolysis Gasoline Hydrotreating... Butadiene Recovery... Feedstock Comparisons... Medium Severity Operations--Feeds and Products... Medium Severity Operations--Economic Comparisons... High Severity Operations... New Plant Operations... Single-Feedstock Plants... Flexible-Feedstock Plants... Seasonal Effects... Benefits of Integration... Existing Units... Integrated Facilities (New Units)... Logistics of Integration... Factors Influencing Future Olefins Prices iv

6 ILLUSTRATIONS 4.1 Historical U.S. Refining Trends Historic and Forecast U.S. Refining Trends Olefins Production Feedstock Sensitivity Block Flow Diagram of Refinery Flow Sheet Projected Effect of Isomerization Throughput on Reforming Severity in /1993 Refinery Operations Flow Sheet Projected Effect of Crude Oil Gravity on Flexicoking Requirement in Block Flow Diagram of Ethylene Unit Feed Comparison New Feed-Specific Olefins Units Feed Comparison New Feed-Flexible Olefins Units Integrated Operations (Refinery) Flow Sheet Integrated Operations (Olefins Production) Flow Sheet Economics of New-Built Olefins Units Integrated vs. Independent Facilities Ethylene Price Sensitivity

7 TABLES 2.1 Highlights of Projected 1993 Refinery Operations Medium Severity Operations Highlights of Olefins Feedstock Comparison High Severity Operations Main Effects of Supplementary Feedstock Comparison of Projected 1993 Olefin Feedstock Values and Prices Highlights of 1993 Integrated Operations Total Refinery Capacity in the United States, End Conversion Refinery Capacity in the United States, End Ethylene Olefins Capacity in the United States, End Major U.S. Refinery Products, 1993 versus U.S. Crude Imports by Source, 1983 versus Free World Oil Reserves and Current Production Projected Spot Prices for Saudi Arabian Light Crude, F.O.B. Saudi Arabia Breakdown of Ethylene Demand, 1993 versus Feeds and Product Trends, U.S. Olefins Units, 1993 versus Projected Refinery Operations in Projected Effect of Octane of Premium Gasoline on 1993 Refinery Operations Projected Effect of Additions of 500 BPCD each of Ethanol, MTBE, and Oxinol on 1993 Refinery Operations Projected Effect of Heavier Crude Oil Slate on 1993 Refinery Operations Projected Effect of Propylene Production on 1993 Refinery Operations Prices of Major Refinery Products on U.S. Gulf Coast Profitability of Hypothetical U.S. Refinery in Vii

8 TABLES 5.8 Profitability of Hypothetical U.S. Refinery in Incremental Petrochemical Feedstock Production in Incremental Petrochemical Feedstock Production in Typical Pyrolysis Yields Medium Severity Operations Olefins Feedstock Comparison Medium Severity Operations Feedstock Break-Even Values High Severity Operations Effect of Supplementary Feedstock High Severity and Medium Operations Feedstock Break-Even Values Economics of New Feedstock Specific Olefins Units Economics of Feed-Specific Versus Feed-Flexible Olefins Units Integrated Operations Major U.S. Refineries Louisiana and Texas Refineries Operating Parameters for Integrated Refinery/Olefins Plants Economics of Integrated Refinery/Olefins Units Economics of New Naphtha Crackers Propylene Production Cost by Catalytic Dehydrogenation of Propane viii