The PRINCOMP Procedure

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1 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Food production variables The PRINCOMP Procedure Observations 16 Variables 4 Simple Statistics PRECIP ndvi aet temp Mean StD Correlation Matrix PRECIP ndvi aet temp PRECIP ndvi aet temp Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative

2 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Food production variables The PRINCOMP Procedure Eigenvectors foodprod1 foodprod2 foodprod3 foodprod4 PRECIP ndvi aet temp

3 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci First 2 principal components scores 15:14 Friday, June 11, Tweedsmuir Grid Grid Kimdean Grid N Grid Second component for productivity score 0-1 Gmu 9b Taku South Coast Khutzeymateen Owikeno Kingcome Stikine Unuk-Bradfield -2 Berners Bay First component for productivity score

4 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci Plot of density_corrected vs first food production principal component score 15:14 Friday, June 11, Khutzeymateen Berners Bay 60 Taku Grizzly Bear Density Gmu 9b Stikine Kimdean Unuk-Bradfield Kingcome Grid N Grid Tweedsmuir Grid Owikeno 10 South Coast Mid Coast Mainlan Grid First component for productivity score

5 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci Plot of density_corrected vs first food production principal component score 15:14 Friday, June 11, Khutzeymateen Berners Bay 60 Taku Grizzly Bear Density Stikine Unuk-Bradfield Gmu 9b Kingcome Kimdean Owikeno Grid N Grid South Coast Mid Coast Mainlan Grid Grid Tweedsmuir Second component for productivity score

6 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs model n _p aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight 1 Temp_T25_salmon NDVI_salmon T25_salmon Temp_T25_salmon_Hum NDVI_T25_salmon Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live T AET_T25_salmon Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum_Live NDVI_T AET_T25_salmon_Hum NDVI_H50_T25_salmon Prcp_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live H50_T25_salmon_Hum NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_I AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum_Live

7 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs model n _p aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight 26 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Live NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_I Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum Prcp_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum_Live NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live

8 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs model n _p aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight 51 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live_I NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live

9 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 1 Temp_T25_salmon NDVI_salmon T25_salmon Temp_T25_salmon_Hum NDVI_T25_salmon Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live T AET_T25_salmon Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum_Live NDVI_T AET_T25_salmon_Hum

10 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 12 NDVI_H50_T25_salmon Prcp_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live H50_T25_salmon_Hum NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_I AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon

11 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 23 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Live NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_I

12 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 34 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum Prcp_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum_Live NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum

13 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 45 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live

14 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 56 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_Live_I NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum_LLive

15 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci Obs Intercept PRECIP ndvi temp aet herb50 tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma Obs model livestock_den log_hum_den log_livestock_den ISti aicc_weight 66 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Salmon_Hum_Live Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum_Live

16 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Model averaged predictions Obs Name Year Model averaged pred density Berners Bay Gmu 9b Grid Grid Grid N Grid Khutzeymateen Kimdean Kingcome Mid Coast Mainland Only Owikeno South Coast Stikine Taku Tweedsmuir Unuk-Bradfield

17 Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci 15:14 Friday, June 11, Predictions from best Tobit model - invci - Temp_T25_salmon Obs Name Type Year Bias Density_corrected temp tree25 SALMON_AVG Predicted value of Density_corrected Residual of Density_corrected 1 Berners Bay T 2006 L Gmu 9b M 2000 U Grid T 2004 U Grid T 2005 U Grid N T 2006 U Grid T 2007 U Khutzeymateen T 1991 H Kimdean T 1999 L Kingcome M 1997 U Owikeno T 1998 L South Coast T 2004 L Stikine M 2004 U Taku T 2003 L Tweedsmuir T 1993 L Unuk-Bradfield T 2005 L Mid Coast Mainland Only M 2009 L

18 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Khutzeymateen 20 Taku 10 Residual 0-10 Stikine Unuk-Bradfield Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

19 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual Average Precipitation

20 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual Average Temperature

21 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual Proportion of pixels with >50% herb coverage

22 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual Livestock density

23 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual Amount of salmon

24 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual Human density

25 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero The CAPABILITY Procedure Variable: Resid_Density_corrected (Residual of Density_corrected) Moments N 16 Sum Weights 16 Mean Sum Observations Std Deviation Variance Skewness Kurtosis Uncorrected SS Corrected SS Coeff Variation Std Error Mean Basic Statistical Measures Location Variability Mean Std Deviation Median Variance Mode. Range Interquartile Range Tests for Location: Mu0=0 Test Statistic p Value Student's t t Pr > t Sign M 0 Pr >= M Signed Rank S 2 Pr >= S

26 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero The CAPABILITY Procedure Variable: Resid_Density_corrected (Residual of Density_corrected) Quantiles (Definition 5) Quantile Estimate 100% Max % % % % Q % Median % Q % % % % Min Extreme Observations Lowest Highest Value Obs Value Obs

27 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero 15:14 Friday, June 11, Residual of Density_corrected Normal Quantiles

28 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Observed corrected density 100 Khutzeymateen 50 Taku Stikine Unuk-Bradfield Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

29 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci - ci from observed overlaid temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Observed corrected density Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

30 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci - ci on predicted overlaid temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Observed corrected density Predicted Grizzly Bear Density

31 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, Best model predictions and prediction limits - data used in fitting - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg Obs NAME Density_corrected MY_PRED MY_PRED_SEP MY_LCL MY_UCL 1 Berners Bay Gmu 9b Grid Grid Grid N Grid Khutzeymateen Kimdean Kingcome Mid Coast Mainland Only Owikeno South Coast Stikine Taku Tweedsmuir Unuk-Bradfield

32 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Approximate 95% prediction limits from best Tobit model - invci temp tree25 salmon_avg 15:14 Friday, June 11, Observed corrected density 100 Khutzeymateen 50 Taku Stikine Unuk-Bradfield Prediced corrected density

33 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model Compare model averaged vs best model predictions 15:14 Friday, June 11, Khutzeymateen Model averaged corrected density Tweedsmuir Best model corrected density

34 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Density_corrected Number of Observations Read 16 Number of Observations Used 16 Analysis of Variance Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F Value Pr > F Model Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq Coeff Var Parameter Estimates Variable DF Parameter Estimate Standard Error t Value Pr > t Intercept temp tree SALMON_AVG

35 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Density_corrected

36 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: Density_corrected

37 Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model 15:14 Friday, June 11, APPROXIMATE leverage plots Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Partial Regression Residual Plot

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