Maritime Security Challenges New Theatres of Maritime Operations: - The Polar Prospect

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Todd Harvey
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1 Maritime Security Challenges 2018 New Theatres of Maritime Operations: - The Polar Prospect

2 Challenges in Arctic Waters: Environment (natural and operational) Economics of operations/existence Social Issues of Inhabitants Expectations Political Context Reality vs Hype Capability vs Intentions Conflict or Cooperation?

3 Eye-catching titles and headlines Beyond the titles/headlines are more nuanced appreciations The Arctic is very topical (again) The NSR is not new The Arctic game is not about territory The NWP will never be a Panama Canal

4 The Arctic Seascape/Icescape Sea Ice Concentration, for 26 Sep Source: Sea ice declining but still significant in the NWP/Beaufort

5 Arctic Accessibility: 20 Sep 2018, PC5 ship (eg: AOPS) Ops permitted Ops with Speed Limits Ops not permitted Open Water = <1/10 ice POLARIS: Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System Most ice-classed merchant ships several levels below PC5 OW is not ice-free still some risk to light ice-class vessels

Ice Navigation Reality Summer 2018 Note: Week of 10 Sep historically the period of least ice coverage in the NWP Concentration/ Navigability * 1-2/10 3-5/10 6-8/10 9-10/10

6 Ice Navigation Reality Summer 2018 Note: Week of 10 Sep historically the period of least ice coverage in the NWP Concentration/ Navigability * 1-2/10 3-5/10 6-8/ /10 Non-Ice-classed Ice-classed Light Icebreakers Heavy Icebreakers Source: CIS Regional Ice Charts E/W Arctic, week of 10 Sep 18 * Very rough approximation subject to ice concentration/thickness/type

Point Barrow Historically the lowest week of ice coverage in the NWP = 10

7 NWP Ice Coverage Declining, but highly variable Not open all the way through at once Pinch points: Lancaster Sd, Peel Sd-Victoria Str, Beaufort Sea, Point Barrow Historically the lowest week of ice coverage in the NWP = 10 Sep 2018 had the heaviest coverage that week in 13 yrs 11 th heaviest season in 50yr

Ice Classes of Ships Total # Ships by Ice Class 10 6

Ice (CDN) IACS Type Thickness CAC 1 PC1 No Limit >3.

5m CAC4 PC4 Thick First Year >120 cm Type A PC5,6

(2) 50-70 cm Type C Thin First Year (1) 30-50 cm Type

Source: TP 14044e AIRSS Pictorial Guide, and Greenwood

321 4287 2899 2342 1028 CAC1 CAC2 CAC3 CAC4 Type A

>100 GT Worldwide: 11,067 Ice-classed 70 Icebreakers

ice-strengthened ) 125 Flags Source: Greenwood N.

8 Ice Classes of Ships Total # Ships by Ice Class Vessel Class Max Allowable Ice Consolidated Ice (CDN) IACS Type Thickness CAC 1 PC1 No Limit >3.0m CAC2 PC2 Multi-Year 3.0m CAC3 PC3 Second-Year 2.5m CAC4 PC4 Thick First Year >120 cm Type A PC5,6 Medium First Year cm Type B PC7 Thin First Year (2) cm Type C Thin First Year (1) cm Type D Grey-White cm Type E Open Water/ Grey 15 cm Source: TP 14044e AIRSS Pictorial Guide, and Greenwood N et al CAC1 CAC2 CAC3 CAC4 Type A Type B Type C Type D Type E Unkn Of ~ 200,000 ships >100 GT Worldwide: 11,067 Ice-classed 70 Icebreakers 417 Type A & above ( icebreaking ) 8214 Type C-E ( ice-strengthened ) 125 Flags Source: Greenwood N. et al Review of Surface Ship Fleets: Ice-Classed Ships. Contract Report DRDC-RDDC-2018-C083, contract # W /001-SV TASK 50.

9 Vessel Class (CDN) CAC 1 CAC2 CAC3 CAC4 Type A Type B Type C Numbers of Ice-classed Ships Type A+ Type D (Types of ships >1% of all Type A+) Type E Types of Ships of Ice Class Type A and above ( Icebreaking ) IACS PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5,6 PC7 Max Allowable Ice Type No Limit Multi-Year Second-Year Thick First Year Medium First Year Thin First Year (2) Thin First Year (1) Grey-White Open Water/ Grey Consolidated Ice Thickness >3.0m 3.0m 2.5m >120 cm cm cm cm cm 15 cm True Icebreakers usually of Type A and above Still limited by type of ice below CAC Pa ss en ge r Ic Ro ebr ea -R ke /R o Ca or Ro rg o Sh Sh ip (V ip eh ic le s) Ge Ch ne em r ica al C Tug Co ar l/p nt go ai r o ne Sh du ip rs ct hi st p an (F Re ke ul se l r y ar C ch el l ul Su ar rv ) ey Pr V e od uc sse l ts Ta nk L er I A n c eb N G r T ch ea an or k ke H a er / Re r nd O se l in ffs ar g ho ch T ug re Su Tu pp g/ Su ly p Pa pl y ss Sh en ip ge r/ Cr ui Bu o y se Te Pa nde tr r ol Ve ss Sa e lv ag l e Fi sh Ship in g Ve ss el 0 * Coloured are those likely to be higher ice-classes Source: Greenwood N. et al Review of Surface Ship Fleets: Ice-Classed Ships. Contract Report DRDC-RDDC-2018-C083, contract # W /001-SV TASK 50. Most of these are utility or special purpose vessels, not general cargo/tankers

10 Top 20 Flags of Type A+ Vessels Type A + Rank O/A Flag State CAC1 CAC2 CAC3 CAC4 Type A Type B Type C Type D Type E 2 Russia Finland Canada Cyprus Sweden Bahamas Netherlands Denmark (Dis) Malta Italy United States Of America Kazakhstan Estonia Portugal (Mar) United Kingdom Norway (Nis) China, People's Republic Of Liberia Denmark Faeroe Islands Source: Greenwood N. et al Review of Surface Ship Fleets: Ice-Classed Ships. Contract Report DRDC-RDDC-2018-C083, contract # W /001-SV TASK 50.

11 Top 20 Flags of Type B-E Vessels Type B-E Rank O/A Flag State CAC1 CAC2 CAC3 CAC4 Type A Type B Type C Type D Type E 1 China, People's Republic Of Russia Antigua & Barbuda Liberia Malta Netherlands Panama Cyprus Marshall Islands Norway Germany Hong Kong, China Bahamas Norway (Nis) Portugal (Mar) Singapore Denmark (Dis) United Kingdom Gibraltar Canada * USA next on this list with 111 ships Source: Greenwood N. et al Review of Surface Ship Fleets: Ice-Classed Ships. Contract Report DRDC-RDDC-2018-C083, contract # W /001-SV TASK 50.

com/nsr_transits http://www.highnorthnews.

12 Transits of the NSR 2016: 19 voyages 2018: 34 voyages from Yamal to Eur. (ie: partial transits) Arc7 LNG carriers

13 Transits of the NWP Small vessels, Govt icebreakers dominate Passenger ships increasing Increasing cargo mostly destination not through-traffic Number of transits still very low (<20/yr)

14 Interests: Coastal Arctic States: SAR Environmental Protection Sovereignty Economic Sustainability Resources Other Polar Nations Scientific knowledge (climate change) Operational access (experience in ice) Legal access (transit rights) Resource access ( Global Commons )

Maritime Jurisdictional Claims Source: https://www.dur.ac.

15 Maritime Jurisdictional Claims Source: Remaining issues: CA DE regarding Hans Island CA US regarding Beaufort Sea Continental Shelf Extensions (Lomonosov Ridge) Not a State of Anarchy

16 Political Framework for Conflict Resolution: UNCLOS Coastal States ( Arctic 5 : Canada, US, Russia, Norway, Denmark) Arctic Council (5 + Iceland, Finland, Sweden) Arctic Council Permanent Participants (6 org of Arctic indigenous communities) Arctic Council Observers (Germany, Netherlands, Poland, UK, France, Spain, PRC, India, Italy, Japan, ROK, Singapore, Switzerland; pending EU and Turkey) Conditions for AC Obs (2011): Recognition of Coastal States sovereignty, legal framework of UNCLOS

17 Peaceful Cooperation in the Arctic AC forum for agreement, eg: 2011 Ilulissat SAR treaty Russia Norway agreement over Barents Sea Russia US agreement over Bearing Sea demarcation Canada Denmark agreement over Lincoln Sea IMO adoption of Polar Code False Causes-Célèbres: Northwest Passage Sovereignty over the North Pole

18 Prospects for Arctic Military Conflict Scenarios/Reasons: Sovereign territory incursions Resource competition Control key trade routes (SLOC) Central, internal line for strategic maneouvre Position forces for coercion Counter possible adversary positioning

19 Arctic Military Conflict Unlikelihood: Resource exploitation in disputed areas still hypothetical Actual resource exploitation is in uncontested areas Military advantages of Arctic threat axis (by sea) marginal or nil Arctic unlikely to become a military re-supply route Arctic unlikely to become a key trade route (for very long time) Navies hard pressed to recapitalize temperate-water capabilities, let alone acquire Arctic capable vessels of dubious military utility

20 Summary: Arctic will see more maritime traffic (mostly destination vice transit) SAR demands will increase Nations sovereign responsibilities will be met with increasing military/ para-military presence There will be continued competition to define offshore estates (EEZ+) UNCLOS and Arctic Council/Bilateral discussion will remain preferred mechanisms for dispute resolution CAVEAT: What does future mean to you?

21 Questions?

REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2013

UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2013 Report by the UNCTAD secretariat Annex III UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2013 STATISTICAL ANNEX 173 True nationality