COCOALAND BUY. Turnaround on strong 4Q. Company report. (Maintained) Rationale for report: Company Result CONSUMER

Transcription

1 CONSUMER COCOLND (COL MK, CCLD.KL) 28 rary 2012 Company rport Low Soo an Trnarond on stron 4Q Rational for rport: Company Rslt BUY (Maintaind) Pric air Val 52-wk Hih/Low Ky Chans air val EPS RM2.39 RM2.75 RM2.42/RM1.90 YE to Dc Y11 Y12 Y13 Y14 Rvn (RMmil) Cor nt profit (RMmil) EPS (Sn) EPS rowth (%) Consnss EPS (Sn) n/a DPS (Sn) PE (x) EV/EBITD (x) Div yild (%) ROE (%) Nt Garin (%) Nt cash Nt cash Nt cash Nt cash Stock and inancial Data Shars Otstandin (million) Markt Cap (RMmil) Book val (RM/shar) 1.10 P/BV (x) 2.2 ROE (%) 10.5 Nt Garin (%) Nt cash Major Sharholdrs Lvra Sccss Sdn Bhd (38.0%) rasr & Nav Holdins (27.2%) r loat (%) 32.8 v Daily Val (RMmil) 0.1 Pric prformanc 3mth 6mth 12mth solt (%) (3.3) Rlativ (%) (7.3) ) M 2.00 (R ,674 1,514 1,355 1,195 In d x P o in ts Invstmnt Hihlihts Cocoaland Holdins (Cocoaland) postd a 4Q nt profit of RM9mil, rinin arnins for th fll yar to an imprssiv RM19mil. It otprformd or forcast y 17%, t only mad p 78% of consnss stimats. W dm th rslts to ahad of or xpctations, with th positiv varianc comin from a stronr-than-xpctd 4QY11. Manamnt dclard a (sinl-tir, tax-xmpt) scond intrim dividnd of 3 sn/shar for th qartr, rinin total dividnds to 5.5 sn/shar. This is 1 sn hihr than that dclard in th prvios yar. Cocoaland rportd a stllar st of 4Q rslts. Notwithstandin som sasonality in th final qartr, trnovr was p 29% QoQ mainly on th ack of hihr dmand for th rop s cor frit mmis, hihr tilisation rat of its PET vra lins as wll as a ttrmarin prodct mix. Nt profit, which tripld to RM10mil from a mr RM3mil in th prcdin qartr, was also oostd y marin ains from lowr costs of raw matrials, namly sar. s an indication, raw sar pric for 2HY11 fll 20% from its pak in Jn Consqntly, costs of oods sold as a prcnta of rvn fll 10ppts QoQ in 4Q. Cocoaland s Y11 nt profit lapt to RM19mil (YoY: 96%) on ack of a 26% YoY ris in trnovr. Th improvd prformanc was larly d to rost sals volm in 4Q, pward rvision in SPs and lowr costs of raw matrials, which mor than offst th nativ ffcts of a wak US dollar xchan rat sd for th rop s xports ovrsas. ll in, w hav trimmd or Y123 arnins forcasts y 16%9%, takin into accont or latst tilisation rats and marin assmptions. Earnins rowth movin forward is wll ndrpinnd y nw prodction facilitis for frit mmis and hard candis schdld to oprational y nd-2012, as wll as hihr tilisation rats of its PET vra lins from ttr off-taks y associat rasr & Nav Holdins (NH Mk Eqity, Hold) and othr MNCs COL 0 BM KLCI ,036 W maintain or BUY rcommndation on Cocoaland with a slihtly hihr fair val of RM2.75/shar (RM2.45/shar prviosly) as w roll forward or valation as to Y13 to ttr captr th rop s arnins potntial. W contin to p Y13 arnins to a fair PE of 15x, or at a 15% discont to &N s implid tart PE of 18x. PP 12247/06/2012 (030106)

2 Cocoaland Holdins Bhd 28 rary 2012 TBLE 1 : RESULTS SUMMRY Y to Dc Y10 Y11 % YoY 3Q11 4Q11 % QoQ Rvn (RM m) EBIT Nt intrst (0.0) (0.0) Pr-xcptional profit Excptional ssociats (0.3) Prtax profit Taxation 1.5 (2.5) (0.0) (1.1) Minoritis orx ain/(loss) Nt profit EPS (sn) Gross DPS (sn) BV / Shar (RM) EBIT marin (%) Prtax marin (%) Effctiv tax rat (%) (18.3) Sorc : Company, mrsarch stimats CHRT 1 : QURTERLY PERORMNCE Sorc: Company, mrsarch mrsarch Sdn Bhd 2

3 Cocoaland Holdins Bhd 28 rary 2012 CHRT 2 : PRICE O RW SUGR ON UPTREND YTD Sorc: Bloomr, mrsarch mrsarch Sdn Bhd 3

4 Cocoaland Holdins Bhd 28 rary 2012 TBLE 1 : INNCIL DT Incom Statmnt (RMmil, YE 31 Dc) Rvn EBITD Dprciation (7.1) (7.7) (11.0) (11.3) (11.6) Opratin incom (EBIT) Othr incom & associats (0.3) Nt intrst Excptional itms Prtax profit Taxation 1.5 (2.5) (4.3) (7.9) (9.2) Minoritis/prf dividnds Nt profit Cor nt profit Balanc Sht (RMmil, YE 31 Dc) ixd assts Intanil assts Othr lon-trm assts Total non-crrnt assts Cash & qivalnt Stock Trad dtors Othr crrnt assts Total crrnt assts Trad crditors Short-trm orrowins Othr crrnt liailitis Total crrnt liailitis Lon-trm orrowins Othr lon-trm liailitis Total lon-trm liailitis Sharholdrs fnds Minority intrsts BV/shar (RM) Cash low (RMmil, YE 31 Dc) Prtax profit Dprciation Nt chan in workin capital (0.2) (15.6) (1.5) (17.7) (8.1) Othrs (4.0) (11.5) (4.3) (7.9) (9.2) Cash flow from oprations Capital xpnditr (26.1) (30.7) (40.0) (15.0) (15.0) Nt invstmnts & sal of fixd assts Othrs Cash flow from invstin (24.5) (30.4) (40.0) (15.0) (15.0) Dt raisd/(rpaid) (0.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) Eqity raisd/(rpaid) Dividnds paid (4.7) (6.7) (3.2) (8.4) (10.3) Othrs Cash flow from financin 69.9 (7.8) (4.3) (9.4) (11.4) Nt cash flow 56.3 (35.9) (13.9) Nt cash/(dt) /f 56.4 (34.8) (12.9) Nt cash/(dt) c/f Ky Ratios (YE 31 Dc) Rvn rowth (%) EBITD rowth (%) n/a Prtax marins (%) Nt profit marins (%) Intrst covr (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Effctiv tax rat (%) n/a Nt dividnd payot (%) Dtors trnovr (days) Stock trnovr (days) Crditors trnovr (days) Sorc: Company, mrsarch stimats mrsarch Sdn Bhd 4

5 Cocoaland Holdins Bhd 28 rary 2012 CHRT 1 : PB BND CHRT CHRT 2 : PE BND CHRT nchor point for disclaimr txt ox Plishd y mrsarch Sdn Bhd ( P) ( mmr of th minvstmnt Bank Grop) 15th loor Bannan mbank Grop 55 Jalan Raja Chlan Kala Lmpr Tl: (03) (rsarch) ax: (03) Printd y mrsarch Sdn Bhd ( P) ( mmr of th minvstmnt Bank Grop) 15th loor Bannan mbank Grop 55 Jalan Raja Chlan Kala Lmpr Tl: (03) (rsarch) ax: (03) Th information and opinions in this rport wr prpard y mrsarch Sdn Bhd. Th invstmnts discssd or rcommndd in this rport may not sital for all invstors. This rport has n prpard for information prposs only and is not an offr to sll or a solicitation to y any scritis. Th dirctors and mploys of mrsarch Sdn Bhd may from tim to tim hav a position in or with th scritis mntiond hrin. Mmrs of th minvstmnt Grop and thir affiliats may provid srvics to any company and affiliats of sch companis whos scritis ar mntiond hrin. Th information hrin was otaind or drivd from sorcs that w liv ar rlial, t whil all rasonal car has n takn to nsr that statd facts ar accrat and opinions fair and rasonal, w do not rprsnt that it is accrat or complt and it shold not rlid pon as sch. No liaility can accptd for any loss that may aris from th s of this rport. ll opinions and stimats incldd in this rport constitt or jdmnt as of this dat and ar sjct to chan withot notic. or mrsarch Sdn Bhd Bnny Chw Manain Dirctor mrsarch Sdn Bhd 5