GENTING MALAYSIA BUY. RWNY Chugging along nicely. Company report. (Maintained) Rationale for report: Company Update CASINO

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1 CASINO GENTING MALAYSIA (GENM MK, GENM.KL) 2 April 22 Company report Gan Huey Ling, CFA gan-huey-ling@ambankgroup.com Price RM3.85 Fair Value RM week High/Low RM4.2/RM3. Key Changes Fair value Unchanged EPS Unchanged RWNY Chugging along nicely Rationale for report: Company Update Investment Highlights BUY (Maintained) Genting Malaysia Bhd (GenM) remains a BUY with an unchanged RNAV-based fair value of RM4.3/share. We continue to like the group for its growing overseas exposure, which would underpin profit growth and undemanding valuations. YE to Dec FY FY2F FY3F FY4F Revenue (RMmil) 8, , , ,422. Net Profit (RMmil),427.8,69.4,784.8,934.7 EPS (sen) EPS growth (%) Consensus net (RMmil) -,693.5,788.4,788.4 DPS (sen) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div yield (%) ROE (%) Net gearing (%) na na na na Stock and Financial Data Shares Outstanding (million) 5,924.4 Market Cap (RM mil) 22,88.9 Book value (RM/share) 2. P/BV (x).9 ROE (%) 2. Net Gearing (%) na Major Shareholders Genting Bhd (49.4%) Great Eastern (.7%) Free Float (%) 5 Avg Daily Value (RMmil) 9.7 Price performance 3mth 6mth 2mth Absolute (%) Relative (%) ,684 GenM is currently trading at FY2F PE of 3.9x and FY3F PE of 2.6x. In comparison, according to Bloomberg, the simple average FY2F PE of the Macau casino companies is 5.4x and 2.6x for FY3F (ex-nagacorp). Genting Bhd is presently trading at 3.x FY2F EPS and 2.x FY3F EPS while sister company, Genting Singapore PLC s FY2F and FY3F PEs are at 5.8x and 3.6x, respectively. We visited GenM s Resorts World New York (RWNY) recently. Based on numbers released by New York Lottery, RWNY is the market leader in the racino industry in New York, accounting for 45% of the share of credits played in the first three months of the year. Empire City had a market share of 27%. We forecast RWNY to record net revenue of RM646mil and EBITDA of RM29mil for FY2F. We are now assuming an average daily win of US$35/machine for FY2F, versus US$33/machine previously but lower non-gaming revenue. RWNY is estimated to account for 5% of GenM s FY2F EBITDA. Compared to Empire City Casino at Yonkers Raceway, we find RWNY s location to be better as it is closer to the city. From the city centre, it takes about 2 minutes to drive to RWNY, which is in Queens. In comparison, it would take more than half an hour to go to Empire City. RWNY s name recognition is still weak. Most taxi drivers recognise RWNY as its old name, Aqueduct. We understand that RWNY would be stepping up on its advertising and promotional initiatives to improve its branding. 4.5 ) M 3. (R,466,248 In d e x P o in ts RWNY s clientele are mainly locals. During the day, most of the players consist of retirees or senior citizens. Asians comprise 25% to 3% of customers. The younger crowd comes in later at night..5. A p ṟ 7 O c ṯ 7 A p ṟ 8 O c ṯ 8 A p ṟ 9 O c ṯ 9 A p ṟ O c ṯ A p ṟ O c ṯ,3 82 A p ṟ 2 Going forward, casino patronage at RWNY is expected to improve due to the warmer weather. We understand that the weakest season is winter due to the cold weather and shift in consumer spending towards retail. The best period is in summer, i.e from July to August. PP2247/6/22(36) GenM FBM KLCI The seasonal trend has already been reflected in the improving weekly revenue numbers reported to the New York Lottery Association. Credits played at RWNY rose 4.6% in the week ended April 22 from the previous week, while average daily wins climbed 2.9% to US$395/machine.

2 TABLE : REGIONAL VALUATION 7 APRIL 22 PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) North America 22F 23F 24F 22F 23F 24F 22F 23F 24F Las Vegas Sands MGM Mirage Wynn Resorts Boyd Gaming Corp Melco Crown Simple average Australia Crown Ltd Hong Kong Melco Int SJM Holdings Galaxy Entertainment Wynn Macau Sands China MGM China Nagacorp Simple average Ex-Naga S Korea Kangwon Land Malaysia/Spore Genting Msia Genting Bhd Genting Spore Genting HK Cruise Companies Carnival Corp Royal Caribbean Source: Bloomberg MAINTAIN BUY WITH UNCHANGED FAIR VALUE OF RM4.3/SHARE Genting Malaysia Bhd (GenM) remains a BUY with an unchanged RNAV-based RM4.3/share. Our RNAV is mainly based on a PE of 3x on GenM s FY2F casino earnings in Malaysia and DCF value of RM2.2bil for the group s operations in Britain and New York. Outlook for Resorts World New York (RWNY) is expected to be positive, underpinned by an increase in the number of visitors. Aggressive advertising and promotional campaigns are envisaged to improve RWNY s brand recognition, which is still weak currently. In the long-term, RWNY s prospects would be supported by the potential liberalisation of the full-fledged casino industry. We reckon that legislative approvals for a full-fledged casino, if any, might only be received by FY3F. Hence, a casino with physical table games may only open in FY4F. In Malaysia, we expect EBITDA of the casino operations to rise 4% to RM2.2bil in FY2F on the back of improved revenue yields and sustained operating margins. FINANCIALS RWNY to account for 5% of GenM s FY2F EBITDA We forecast RWNY to record net revenue of RM645.5mil and EBITDA of RM29.mil in FY2F. RWNY is expected to account for 5.% of GenM s FY2F EBITDA. We have assumed a higher average daily win of US$35/machine for FY2F, versus US$33/machine previously. In QFY2, the average daily win was US$36/machine. AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2

3 CHART : RACINO MARKET SHARE IN NY FROM JANUARY TO MARCH 22 Source: New York Lottery, AmResearch CHART 2 : RACINO MARKET SHARE IN NY IN SEPTEMBER 2 (BEFORE OPENING OF RWNY IN OCT 2) Source: New York Lottery, AmResearch AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3

4 MAP : LOCATION OF RWNY AND EMPIRE CITY Source: Google Maps We have also reduced our estimates of RWNY s nongaming revenue. Non-gaming revenue is now envisaged to account for only % of RWNY s total revenue compared with more than 2% originally. We have maintained our EBITDA margin assumption of 2% for RWNY in FY2F. In the last two months of FY, RWNY recorded an operational EBITDA margin of 24%. Malaysia is still the profit driver, accounting for 87% of GenM s FY2F EBITDA In Malaysia, revenue growth of 3% forecast for FY2F is expected to be underpinned by a 2% increase in the number of visitors (FY: 2%) and a.3% expansion in average spending per visitor. Resorts World Genting is expected to record visitor arrivals of 2.7 million in FY2F compared with 2.3 million in FY. EBITDA margin of the operations in Malaysia is forecast to inch up by.3 of a percentage point from 38.9% in FY to 39.2% in FY2F. Resorts World Genting is anticipated to account for 87% of GenM s FY2F EBITDA. KEY UPDATES Accessibility is not an issue It is not difficult travelling to RWNY in Queens via public transportation. The taxi ride from the city to RWNY took about 2 minutes. AmResearch Sdn Bhd 4

5 TABLE 2 : INDIAN CASINOS IN NY STATE Number of slots Number of tables Seneca Allegany Casino 2, 3 Seneca Gaming and Entertainment, Irving 5 8 Seneca Gaming and Entertainment, Salamanca 3 6 Buffalo Creek Casino 2, 45 Akwesasne Mohawk Casino Seneca Niagara Casino 3,2 95 Turning Stone Casino Resort 2,3 5 RWNY is also accessible via the subway. From the city, it would take about two subway trains to reach RWNY. From the subway station at RWNY, there is a shuttle bus, which would ferry visitors to the door-step of the racino. Presently, there are shuttle buses picking up visitors at seven places like Queens, Long Island and Brooklyn. Part of the strategy is to target places with a sizeable Asian community such as Flushing and Chinatown. It is more difficult getting out of RWNY as there are no taxis around. Hence, visitors that do not drive have to depend on the shuttle buses and subway trains. We believe that RWNY s location is more central compared to Empire City Casino at Yonkers Raceway (see Map ). Due to its proximity to the city, we reckon that RWNY would have an advantage over Empire City in attracting visitors. It took us more than half an hour to reach Empire City from the city compared to just 2 minutes for RWNY. Like RWNY, Empire City also operates shuttle buses from various places such as Chinatown in New York. Some of the routes of the shuttle buses at Empire City are almost the same as RWNY. The shuttle buses at Empire City arrive and depart at one to two hour intervals. Apart from these, Empire City also has buses, which drop visitors at the car park. As for public transportation, one would have to walk to the nearby bus stop and then take the subway back to the city. It takes one subway train to go back to the city instead of two at RWNY. In spite of weak brand recognition,. It appears that RWNY s name recognition is still not prominent yet. Most taxi drivers still recognise RWNY by its old name Aqueduct. Presently, we reckon that RWNY s advertising and promotional expenses (A&P) are still low, i.e less than 8% of revenue. Going forward, we believe that RWNY would be stepping up its promotional initiatives. It is a balancing effort between forking out money to improve RWNY s brand name and conserving cash flows or margins. This is because a hefty 7% of the gross revenue is paid out in taxes and duties to the New York State. During our stay in New York, we notice that Empire City advertised on television while RWNY did not.. RWNY is market leader in the industry In spite of RWNY s conservative promotional efforts, RWNY has been gaining market share at the expense of Empire City, which is 8 miles away. We believe that as RWNY intensifies its marketing efforts, the group would continue to garner market share. From January to March 22, RWNY s market share of the credits played in the industry was 45% compared with Empire City s 27% (see Chart ). Before the opening of RWNY in October 2, Empire City s market share was 53% (see Chart 2). Empire City has a higher win percentage on its machines compared to RWNY. In QFY2, the average win percentage of Empire City s slots and ETGs was 7.8% versus RWNY s 5.4%. Empire City has 5,3 slot machines and electronic table games (ETGs). Walking around Empire City, we reckon that Empire City has a smaller number of ETGs compared to RWNY. In comparison, RWNY has about 4,5 slot machines and 5 ETGs currently. Customers are mainly retirees Most of RWNY s customers are locals. There are hardly any tourists. We believe that RWNY s proximity to the JFK International Airport has had no impact on casino patronage. Walking around RWNY during the day, we notice that most of the customers were mainly retirees or senior citizens. We believe that the younger crowd comes in later at night. Tuesdays are Senior Citizen Day, whereby senior citizens would get price discounts on buffet and a certain amount of free play. The casino crowd was also sparse early in the morning as the casino only opens from 8am onwards, in line with state legislation. The crowd started to build up leading up to lunch time. Most of the players were white New Yorkers. Asians comprise 25% to 3% of the clientele. According to a US Census Bureau report in 2, New York City had the largest number of Asian population compared to other cities in the U.S. New York City had a population of one million Asians in 2. AmResearch Sdn Bhd 5

6 Overall, there were roughly 8.2 million people living in New York City in 2. Asians comprise about 2% of the New York City s population. Growing membership for RWNY card Similar to the other casinos in the Genting Group, RWNY has also launched its version of the membership card. However, the card can only be used in RWNY and not in other casinos operated by the Genting Group. RWNY s card currently has 25, members. We believe that there is potential for the membership to reach one million by the end of the year. In Malaysia, Genting Malaysia s World Card had 3.3 million members as at end- FY. RWNY s membership card has three tiers, i.e silver, gold and platinum. In contrast, Empire City s membership card is only single-tier. Seasonal trends peak period is summer We understand that the winter season is the weakest season of the year. This is due to the cold weather and the shift in consumer spending towards retail during Christmas. As the weather gets warmer, visitorship is expected to improve at RWNY. We gather that the peak season is in summer, i.e July to August. In line with seasonal trends and the warmer weather, credits played (net of free play) at RWNY rose 4.6% from US$234.mil in the week ended 3 March 22 to US$244.9mil in the week ended April 22. Average daily wins climbed 2.9% from US$35/machine in the week ended 3 March 22 to US$395/machine in the week ended April 22. Year-to-date, average daily win was US$362/machine at RWNY, which is higher than our assumption of US$33/machine for FY2F. Peak periods during the day are lunch time and from pm to 4 am. Status of the MoU on the re-development of the US$4bil convention centre Negotiations are moving along on the terms and conditions for the re-development of the convention centre. The convention centre would be built at the huge car park next to RWNY. The rationale for setting up the convention centre is to draw crowds of people to RWNY. Assuming a debt to equity ratio of 7/3, the debt that would have to be raised to finance the convention centre would be about US$2.8bil (RM8.6bil). RWNY s estimated EBITDA of US$4mil to US$5mil (RM22.4mil to RM53mil) annually would not be enough to finance the convention centre. State Development Corporation of New York is 3 November 22. However, we reckon that if the parties involved do not reach an agreement by 3 November, then the deadline might be extended to next year. State legislation to allow full-fledged casinos in New York State? We get the feel that New Yorkers are more open towards the idea of a physical casino compared to the people in Florida. We believe that full-fledged casinos, if any, may open only in FY4F. Legislative approval would likely come in FY3F. We reckon that the legislative process in New York is faster than in Florida. There are two legislative sittings in the state of New York as opposed to only one in Florida. The next sitting in New York is expected to be in November 22. In Florida, lawmakers are expected to meet only from January to March 23. If a full-fledged casino licence were approved by lawmakers, we reckon that RWNY would not have any issue winning the licence and setting up physical gaming tables immediately. According to a Times Union report in March 22, the casino licences would go towards the highest bidders. If this were true, then we believe that RWNY s chances would be positive as it would leverage on the strength of GenM s balance sheet. GenM s net cash amounted to RM343mil as at end-fy. Gross cash was RM2.bil. Presently, there are seven casinos in the state of New York, all of which are owned by Indian tribes (see Table 2). These are mainly small casinos, with the biggest having 5 gaming tables only. These casinos are not located in New York City. Instead, they are more than five hours drive away from the city. In December 2, Bloomberg quoted the city s mayor as saying that New York City would record 5.2 million tourists by the end of 2. Out of these, an estimated. million tourists were from other countries. Tourism spending was estimated at US$32bil in 2 and there were more than 9, hotel rooms in the city. Convention business has also increased with almost four million visitors spending an estimated US$3bil last year. To recap, the deadline to enter into a binding Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Empire AmResearch Sdn Bhd 6

7 PICTURE : RWNY PICTURE 2 : PARKING LOT AT RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 7

8 PICTURE 3 : SHUTTLE BUS BAYS PICTURE 4 : FRONT OF RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 8

9 PICTURE 5 : FRONT OF RWNY PICTURE 6 : ONE OF RWNY S MANY SHUTTLE BUSES AmResearch Sdn Bhd 9

10 PICTURE 7 : LOBBY OF RWNY PICTURE 8 : CASINO OCCUPANCY CAPACITY AT SINGLE POINT IN TIME AmResearch Sdn Bhd

11 PICTURE 9 : SHUTTLE BUS AT RWNY PICTURE : FOOD COURT AT RWNY. Note: The casino had just opened at 8am. Hence, there were not many people yet AmResearch Sdn Bhd

12 PICTURE : FOOD COURT AT RWNY PICTURE 2 : ONE OF RWNY S RESTAURANTS. Note: The restaurant had not opened early in the morning yet AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2

13 PICTURE 3 : BUFFET RESTAURANT AT RWNY PICTURE 4 : ANOTHER OUTLET AT RWNY S FOOD COURT AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3

14 PICTURE 5 : ENTRANCE TO CASINO PICTURE 6 : WOLFGANG PUCK EXPRESS RESTAURANT AT RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 4

15 PICTURE 7 : POSTER ADVERTISING RWNY S EVENTS IN APRIL PICTURE 8 : LAYOUT OF RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 5

16 PICTURE 9 : OFFERS FOR SENIOR CITIZEN PICTURE 2 : RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 6

17 PICTURE 2 : CHINESE RESTAURANT AT RWNY PICTURE 22 : KIOSKS AT RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 7

18 PICTURE 23 : SKYBRIDGE COVERED WALKWAY TO SUBWAY STATION (NOT OPENED YET) PICTURE 24 : PROPOSED SUBWAY STATION (IT IS AFTER THE CAR PARK) AmResearch Sdn Bhd 8

19 PICTURE 25 : CAR PARK AT THE RACETRACK WHERE THE CONVENTION CENTRE MAY BE BUILT PICTURE 26 : RACETRACK ADJACENT TO RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 9

20 PICTURE 27 : CAR PARK AT THE RACETRACK WHERE THE CONVENTION CENTRE MAY BE BUILT PICTURE 28 :RACETRACK AT RWNY AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2

21 PICTURE 29 :EMPIRE CITY CASINO AT YONKERS AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2

22 TABLE 3 : FINANCIAL DATA Income Statement (RMmil, YE 3 Dec) F 23F 24F Revenue 5,333. 8, , , ,422. EBITDA, ,86. 2,45.3 2,79.9 2,956.8 Depreciation (273.) (366.2) (37.8) (439.8) (58.8) Operating income (EBIT),696.2,89.9 2,78.5 2,28. 2,447.9 Other income & associates Net interest Exceptional items (8.) (24.6)... Pretax profit,73.5,9.6 2,72.9 2, ,586.4 Taxation (455.) (472.8) (553.5) (69.) (65.7) Minorities/pref dividends Net profit,276.6,427.8,69.4,784.8,934.7 Core net profit,384.6,452.4,69.4,784.8,934.7 Balance Sheet (RMmil, YE 3 Dec) F 23F 24F Fixed assets 4, , ,26. 5, ,927.5 Intangible assets 3,44.6 4, , , ,332.3 Other long-term assets 2, ,65.4 3, , ,426.8 Total non-current assets,45.2 2,78.6 2, , ,686.6 Cash & equivalent 3,52. 2, ,23. 4,5.9 5,649.2 Stock Trade debtors Other current assets Total current assets 4, ,725. 3, , ,48.3 Trade creditors 2., Short-term borrowings Other current liabilities ,469.7 Total current liabilities, ,55.9,768.5, ,566.7 Long-term borrowings ,9.8,3. Other long-term liabilities, Total long-term liabilities,35.3,963.8, ,3. 2,23.2 Shareholders' funds,68.7, ,24.9 4,27.3 5,44. Minority interests BV/share (RM) Cash Flow (RMmil, YE 3 Dec) F 23F 24F Pretax profit,73.5,9.6 2,72.9 2, ,586.4 Depreciation Net change in working capital (568.2) 26.8 (,45.7) (568.6) (625.9) Others 3. (77.6) Cash flow from operations, ,6.,65.6 2, ,. Capital expenditure (277.4) (56.) (7.) (95.) (7.) Net investments & sale of fixed assets (3,2.) (2,68.4)... Others Cash flow from investing (3,89.4) (3,35.9) (622.3) (86.) (626.) Debt raised/(repaid) (3.6) (23.2) (29.8) Equity raised/(repaid) (6.3) (38.3)... Dividends paid (336.8) (348.) (52.3) (592.4) (7.9) Others (693.) (9.8)... Cash flow from financing (572.3) (55.9) (822.6) (74.7) Net cash flow (2,294.3) (733.) ,633.3 Net cash/(debt) b/f 5,25. 2, ,42.7 2,584. 3,369.9 Forex (9.5) Net cash/(debt) c/f 2, ,42.7 2,584. 3, ,3.2 Key Ratios (YE 3 Dec) F 23F 24F Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Pretax margins (%) Net profit margins (%) Interest cover (x) na na na na na Effective tax rate (%) Net dividend payout (%) Debtors turnover (days) Stock turnover (days) Creditors turnover (days) Source: Company, AmResearch estimates AmResearch Sdn Bhd 22

23 CHART 3 : PB BAND CHART CHART 4 : PE BAND CHART ) (x +s (x ) +s 2.2 Avg 6. Avg.6 s 3. s. N o v - 9 F e b M a y A u g N o v F e b M a y A u g N o v F e b 2. N o v - 9 F e b M a y A u g N o v F e b M a y A u g N o v F e b 2 Published by AmResearch Sdn Bhd (3355-P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 5t h F l oor B a ng un an A m B a nk Gr ou p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan 52 Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 3) ( re sear c h) F a x: ( 3) Printed by AmResearch Sdn Bhd (3355-P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 5t h F l oor B a ng un an A m B a nk Gr ou p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan 52 Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 3) ( re sear c h) F a x: ( 3) The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmResearch Sdn Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmResearch Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmInvestment Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. For AmResearch Sdn Bhd Benny Chew Managing Director AmResearch Sdn Bhd 23

FORMIS RESOURCES HOLD. Reverse takeover of smaller rival - positive for long run. Company report. (Maintained) Rationale for report: Company update

FORMIS RESOURCES HOLD. Reverse takeover of smaller rival - positive for long run. Company report. (Maintained) Rationale for report: Company update FORMIS RESOURCES (FMSR.KL, FMRB.MK) 10 May 2012 Company report AmResearch Sdn Bhd www.amesecurities.com.my +603 2036 2300 Reverse takeover of smaller rival - positive for long run Rationale for report: