I FORUM CARNICO FECIC Barcelona, 4 Octubre Mercados de vacuno y porcino en la UE Luis Carazo Jimenez, DG AGRI

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1 I FORUM CARNICO FECIC Barcelona, 4 Octubre 2016 Mercados de vacuno y porcino en la UE Luis Carazo Jimenez, DG AGRI

2 Estructura de la presentación I: Situación del mercado de vacuno II: Situación del mercado del porcino III: Instrumentos de gestión de mercado IV: Hacia una mayor transparencia

3 P R O D U C T I O N % E V O L U T I O N H E A D S HEADS Bull Jan- Jun 15/16 EU15 EU28-2.0% - 0.7% + 20 % EU : + 3.6% +13.0% +12.2% +11.6% + 20 % Bullock Cow +1.3% +1.4% +6.4% +7.8% + 10 % +4.5% +2.5% +6.4% +8.1% +1.4% +2.7% Heifer +4.7% +6.0% - 3.5% +1.5% +1.0% +4.0% +4.1% +6.0% +2.0% +5.6% +7.4% +6.4% +7.0% +3.6% +1.4% +1.9% +6.3% + 10 % 0% 0% - 0.1% Calve +3.1% +3.1% - 10 % - 6.2% - 10 % Young cattle +1.3% +2.2% Meat of bovine +2.7% +3.6% animals Estimates for last month of period : - 20 % - 20 % BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK Source : EStat - Newcronos %

4 P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S EU E V O L U T I O N A / C / Z. R3 ACZ - R 3 > Wk % of Reference Price 190% /100 kg cwe 422,6 180% 400,3 170% 378,1 160% 355,8 150% 333,6 140% 311,4 130% Source : Member States ACZ - R 3 > Wk Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Price in week 38 : 363,07 Average price in August 2016 : 361,47 % change y/y : - 5,3% % change y/y : - 5,9% % Ref. Price in wk 38 : 163,3% 289,1

5 P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S EU E V O L U T I O N A / C / Z. R3 / 100 kg EU Beef prices ACZ - R Aug 16 vs Aug Reference price Aug Aug SE GR GB NI IE IT FI LU SP EU DK PT AT DE HR BE SK FR SI CZ PL NL EE LT HU RO LV

P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S E.U. E V O L U T I O N C O W D.O3 Cows D - O 3 > Wk.38-2016 340 340 320 320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 Source : Member States Cows D - O 3 > Wk.

6 P R I C E S C A R C A S S E S E.U. E V O L U T I O N C O W D.O3 Cows D - O 3 > Wk Source : Member States Cows D - O 3 > Wk.38- Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Price in week 38 : 267,13 Average price in August 2016 : 271,66 % change y/y : - 8,0% % change y/y : - 9,9% 220

7 T R A D E EU E X P O R T S Beef & Live Animals Destinations EU exports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Jan-Jul 16 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jul 15 Turkey % % % % % % Hong Kong % % % % % + 1.3% Lebanon % % % % % % Israel % % % % % +++ Ivory Coast % % % % % + 9.1% Ghana % % % % % % Bosnia-Herz % % % % % - 8.1% Libya % % % % % % Switzerland % % % % % - 3.5% Algeria % % % % % % Norway % % % % % - 5.6% Vietnam % % % % % +++ Philippines % % % % % % Egypt % % % % % % For.JRep.Mac % % % % % - 7.1% Russia % % % % % + 5.7% Angola % % % % % + 6.8% Other Destinations % % % % % Extra-EU % change - 13% + 24% + 7% %

T R A D E EU E X P O R T S Beef & Live Animals EU exports of beef and live animals: Trade figures (COMEXT) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR) 385 641 330 280

8 T R A D E EU E X P O R T S Beef & Live Animals EU exports of beef and live animals: Trade figures (COMEXT) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR) Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul Tonnes cw Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul Tonnes cw Turkey Hong Kong Lebanon Israel Ivory Coast Other destinations Series12 Turkey Hong Kong Lebanon Israel Ivory Coast Other destinations Series12

T R A D E EU E X P O R T S B e e f P r o d u c t s EU-28 Exports of BEEF products 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40

9 T R A D E EU E X P O R T S B e e f P r o d u c t s EU-28 Exports of BEEF products in Tonnes cwe Jan Jan Jan LIVE ANIMALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS

T R A D E EU E X P O R T S L i v e A n i m a l s EU-28 Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals (Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe) 30.000 Turkey Algeria Lebanon Other 25.000 9.744. 20.000 403 2.050. 3.769.

2.114 3.461 2.966. 6.248. 1.494 4.561. 3.159. 2.159 886 3.754. 4.634. 2.756 1.945 3.676. 5.608. 3.197 895 4.439. 4.708. 4.291 1.434 3.942. 5.588. 4.583 4.683. 5.614. 4.909 4.741. 6.408. 5.425 3.

385 3.731. 11.505. 5.974. 8.832 1.866 3.518. 8.284. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 15.000 10.000 5.

10 T R A D E EU E X P O R T S L i v e A n i m a l s EU-28 Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals (Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe) Turkey Algeria Lebanon Other Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Tonnes CWE.

11 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S Beef & Live Animals EU imports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes cwe) Origins Jan-Jul 16 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Jul 15 Brazil % % % % % + 5.5% Uruguay % % % % % + 3.9% Argentina % % % % % + 0.4% Australia % % % % % + 4.8% USA % % % % % % New Zealand % % % % % % Namibia % % % % % % Botswana % % % % % - 3.0% Paraguay % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% % % +++ Switzerland % % % % % % Chile % % % % % % Serbia % % % % % + 4.8% Canada % % % % % % Norway % % % % % % Japan 0 0.0% 3 0.0% % % % % Hong Kong % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% % +++ Ukraine 0 0.0% 0 0.0% % % % +++ Other Origins % % % % % Extra-EU % change + 9% - 1% - 3% + 2.5%

12 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S Beef & Live Animals EU imports of beef and live animals (2): Trade figures (COMEXT) IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe) IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1000 EUR) In Tonnes cwe in 1000 EUR Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16 0 Jan-Jul 14 Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16 0 Brazil Uruguay Argentina Australia USA Other origins Brazil Uruguay Argentina Australia USA Other origins

T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E Beef & Live Animals 1 263 1 263 1 171 1 171 1 120 1 120 1 028 1 028 825 Trade balance of beef and live animals IMPORTS 825 800 736 800 736 624 598 598 565 556 624

323 335 332 386 352 292 292 307 400 323 335 332 248 249 308 323 292 292 242 248 249 194 200 200 IMPORTS EXPORTS EXPORTS 1 400 1 400 1 200 1 200 1 000 1 000 1000 Tonne 1000 Tonne 0 1995 1996 1997 1998

13 T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E Beef & Live Animals Trade balance of beef and live animals IMPORTS IMPORTS EXPORTS EXPORTS Tonne 1000 Tonne Jan Jan- Sep Jul 15 16

T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E Beef & Live Animals Trade balance of beef and live animals 1 692 Imports Exports 1 898 2 000 1

14 T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E Beef & Live Animals Trade balance of beef and live animals Imports Exports Million euros Jan-Jul 16 0

15 High Quality Beef Import Quotas Hilton Quota Regulation (EU) N 593/2013 Quantity allocated 2013/ / / /2017* (Tons) Use Use Use Use Australia Argentina % % % % Argentina % % % % Australia % % % % Uruguay % % % % Brazil % % % % New Zealand % % % % Canada/US % % % % Paraguay % % % % Total Beef % % % % Total Buffalo % % % % Total % % % % * up to 31/08/2016

High Quality Beef Import Quotas Quota ergaomnes Regulation (EU) No 481/2012 2013- Q3 2013- Q4 2014- Q1 2014- Q2 TOTAL Period 2013-2014 10 198 942 10 493 437 10 191 527 10 282 860 41 166 765 Available

16 High Quality Beef Import Quotas Quota ergaomnes Regulation (EU) No 481/ Q Q Q Q2 TOTAL Period Available Use 84.64% 87.08% 84.58% 85.33% 85.41% Q Q Q Q2 TOTAL Period Available Use 98.28% 97.47% 94.21% % 98.34% Available after transfer % 95.82% 90.37% 93.95% Q Q Q Q2 TOTAL Period Available Use 99.30% 98.35% 95.48% % 99.71% Available after transfer % 97.67% 93.29% 98.90% Q Q Q Q2 TOTAL Period * Available Use 91.31% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 22.83% Available after transfer % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% * Until 15/09/ Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Period Period Period *

17 Forecast Summary EU.15 PRODUCTION ( 1000T ) % % % % EU.15 CONSUMPTION ( 1000T ) % % % % BALANCE EU.13 PRODUCTION ( 1000T ) % % % % EU.13 CONSUMPTION ( 1000T ) % % % % BALANCE EU.28 PRODUCTION ( 1000T ) % % % % EU.28 CONSUMPTION ( 1000T ) % % % % BALANCE EU - CARCASS PRICES ADULT MALE BOVINES ( /100 kg ) - 5.8% % % % COWS ( /100 kg ) - 8.4% % % % Sources : EStat New Cronos, Member States

18 En resumen La producción sigue progresando (efecto "leche") Presión creciente sobre los precios internos Mayor fragilidad del sub-sector vacuno de carne Buen comportamiento de las exportaciones, pero con una capacidad limitada de crecimiento El mercado UE sigue siendo muy atractivo para los cortes de alto valor

P R O D U C T I O N IN HEADS By quarter Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) + 4% + 2% + 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 2014 2015 2016 f

20 P R O D U C T I O N IN HEADS By quarter Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) + 4% + 2% + 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q f Real slaughter 2016 Q1-1.6% + 0.3% + 5.0% + 1.7% + 0.1% Q % - 1.3% + 3.4% + 1.4% + 4.1% Q % + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.3% Q % + 2.2% + 1.3% - 2.4% EU_ % + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.2%

P R O D U C T I O N IN HEADS By quarter EU pigmeat slaughter (2016

000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 61 689 61 862 64 436 65 536 65 113

Q2 60 252 61 659 63 335 63 537 64 016 65 397 68 530 66 874 0 Pigmeat

21 P R O D U C T I O N IN HEADS By quarter EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) ('000 heads) Real slaughter Q Real slaughter Q Pigmeat Q1 Pigmeat Q2 Pigmeat Q3 Pigmeat Q f Real slaughter 2016

22 P R O D U C T I O N IN HEADS 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% - 5% - 10% - 15% 14.0% 12.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.4% 5.3% Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 heads) 2016/2015 (up to Jun) 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.1% - 1.0% - 2.0% - 3.1% - 4.3% - 4.3% - 4.6% - 6.7% - 6.7% - 9.2% 2.0% - 20% - 25% - 30% Source= Eurostat LU LV SK HR IE SI ES UK FI CY HU BG PL PT DE IT FR NL RO SE EE AT BE CZ DK GR LT MT EU 28

3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% - 0.3% - 0.9% - 2.4% - 3.1% - 3.4% - 4.0% - 5.1% - 6.7% - 11.2% 1.

23 P R O D U C T I O N IN HEADS Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 tonnes) 2016/2015 (up to Jun) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% - 5% - 10% - 15% - 20% 15.5% 12.5% 12.3% 12.3% 9.7% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.2% 4.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% - 0.3% - 0.9% - 2.4% - 3.1% - 3.4% - 4.0% - 5.1% - 6.7% % 1.6% - 25% - 30% Source= Eurostat LU SK HR LV SI CY ES UK IE HU PL FR FI BG PT RO IT NL EE DE SE AT GR CZ BE DK LT MT EU 28

24 P R I C E S C A R C A S E S E U E V O L U T I O N AVERAGE CLASSES S & E EU evolution of the EU pig carcass prices ( / 100kg) Latest price (Week 37) : 166 EUR/100 kg Average (11-15)

P R I C E S P I G L E T S EU E V O L U T I O N EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices ( /head Latest price (Week 37) : 43.

25 P R I C E S P I G L E T S EU E V O L U T I O N EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices ( /head Latest price (Week 37) : EUR/100 kg 55 Evolution compared same period last year (Week 37) : % Average (11-15) 2014 Piglet Piglet

W O R L D P I G M A R K E T PIG PRICES EU, BR, CAN, US Weekly average Pig prices 2005-2016 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and

1.2014 42% class E and 58%S. US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa- Minn. 167-187lb (Feedstuffs.

26 W O R L D P I G M A R K E T PIG PRICES EU, BR, CAN, US Weekly average Pig prices in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and USA) EU US BR CAN EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from % class E and 58%S. US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa- Minn lb (Feedstuffs.com) BR = average of maximum prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/suino) CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca) 70 50

T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E EU trade of PIG products IMPORTS EXPORTS EU Trade of PIG products 881 011 943 405 1 083 230 1 238 138 1 556 961 1 545 907 1 331 808 1 526 563 1 509 302 1 780 568

27 T R A D E EU T R A D E B A L A N C E EU trade of PIG products IMPORTS EXPORTS EU Trade of PIG products Jan- Jul Tonnes carcase weight

28 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s IMPORT EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) Jan-Jul 16 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J a n- J ul 15 Switzerland % % % % % 3% Chile % % % % % 12% Norway % % % % % -22% USA % % % % 979 5% 4% Other % % % % % Extra-EU % change - 7% + 2% - 6% - 9.6%

T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU- 28 (Tonnes c.

29 T R A D E EU I M P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU- 28 (Tonnes c. weight) IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU- 28 (1000 EUR) Jan- Jul 14 Jan- Jul 15 Jan- Jul Jan- Jul 14 Jan- Jul 15 Jan- Jul Switzerland Chile Norway USA Thailand Other origins Switzerland Chile Norway USA Thailand Other origins

30 W O R L D P I G M A R K E T E U I M P O R T S PIG MAIN IMPORTERS Main Importers of PIG Products (up to July) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals) China + H. Kong Japan Mexico (up to May) United States South Korea Canada Australia Russia (up to Jun) China + H. Kong Japan Mexico (up to May) United States South Korea Canada Australia Russia (up to Jun) Qty in 1000 Tonnes 2015 (up to July) 2016 (up to July) 0

31 T R A D E E U E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) Jan-Jul 16 Compared to tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Jul 15 China % % % % % + 106% Japan % % % % % + 13% Hong Kong % % % % % + 45% South Korea % % % % % - 15% Philippines % % % % % + 26% USA % % % % % + 31% Australia % % % % % - 6% Ukraine % % % % % - 7% Vietnam % % % % % + 134% Taiwan % % % % % - 9% Ivory Coast % % % % % - 24% Serbia % % % % % - 20% Other % % % % % Extra-EU % change - 0% - 6% + 8% %

32 T R A D E EU E X P O R T S P i g P r o d u c t s EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT tonnes carcass weight) EU- 28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes carc. weight) Jan- Jul 14 Jan- Jul 15 Jan- Jul Tons (cw). EU- 28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR) Jan- Jul 14 Jan- Jul 15 Jan- Jul in 1,000 EUR. China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations

W O R L D P I G M A R K E T EU PIG E X P O R

014 4% Netherlands 146 558 13% France 93 973

Denmark 199 392 17% United Kingdom 52 121 3%

pigmeat to China (In '000 ) Netherlands 219

France Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom

33 W O R L D P I G M A R K E T EU PIG E X P O R T S T O C H I N A United Kingdom % Ireland % Main EU MS exporting pigmeat to China (In tonnes CW) Others % Netherlands % France % Germany % Spain % Denmark % United Kingdom % Ireland % Main EU MS exporting pigmeat to China (In '000 ) Netherlands % Others % France % Germany % Spain % Denmark % Germany Denmark Spain France Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Others Germany Denmark Spain France Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Others

34 W O R L D P I G M A R K E T E.U. I M P O R T S PIG MAIN EXPORTERS Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to July) Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals) EU EU United States Canada Brazil China + H. Kong Mexico (up to May) Russia (up to Jun) United States Canada Brazil China + H. Kong Mexico (up to May) 2015 (up to July) 2016 (up to July) Russia (up to Jun) Qty in 1000 Tonnes

35 En resumen Después de un proceso de ajuste de 2 años, el mercado parece haber encontrado el equilibrio Extraordinario comportamiento de las exportaciones, a pesar de no ser el origen más competitivo (especialización, servicio, logística, innovación, calidad ) Las cuestiones sanitarias siguen siendo una variable fundamental del mercado.

36 Instrumentos de gestión y transparencia Intervención Almacenamiento privado Medidas excepcionales Los tableros de bordo y el observatorio del mercado de la carne

37 Pantallazo dashboard beef

38 Pantallazo dashboard porcino

Meat MO Economic Board -

Meat Market Observatory Last update : 23.03.2017 Meat MO Economic Board - 16 March 2017 o The 3 rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory (Meat MO) took place on 16 March 2017, with