Reliability Must-Run Analysis th BTA Presentation. Bob Smith Manager Transmission Planning June 6, 2006

Transcription

1 Reliability Must-Run Analysis th BTA Presentation Bob Smith Manager Transmission Planning June 6, 2006

2 Outline of Presentation 2006 RMR Study Process Description of network and constraint SIL/MLSC determination RMR - demand, energy and duration Economic impact of transmission constraint Observations Comparison of RMR Studies to FERC SIL Studies June 6, th BTA 2

3 2006 RMR Study Process Transmission Provider Coordination January 21, 2005 meeting to coordinate plan Decision to study 2008 and 2015 SSG-WI cases to be developed Basic Case Development SWAT Involvement Approve study plan May 4, 2005 Update on study August 23 and October 25 Preliminary results presentation Jan 17, 2006 June 6, th BTA 3

4 RMR Economic Analysis ABB GridView production-cost simulator Entire WECC modeled Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission constraints Annual cost to serve area load determined Study repeated ignoring local import limit Difference is the RMR cost Environmental impact determined for each generator using emission rates June 6, th BTA 4

5 Phoenix Area Load 2008 (2) Raceway Phoenix Area Load (2008) Gavilan Peak Pinnacle Peak 345KV (3) 500KV Westwing 69Kv 230KV 230KV Deer Valley 69Kv (2) Agua Fria Surprise 69Kv (3) Brandow (2) Papago Butte Rogers (2) Deer Valley Reach Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo Coolidge Critical Outage Limiting Element Spook Hill 230KV Liberty Buckeye Jojoba-Kyrene Phoenix Kyrene-Corbell 500kV Area Load 230kV West Phoenix- Lincoln Street 230kV Agua Fria- Glendale 230kV 230KV Silver King TS4 500KV Palo Verde/ Hassayampa Gila River 500KV (2) Jojoba 230KV 230KV 500KV (4) Rudd 69Kv Knox 230KV 230KV 500KV (2) 500KV Kyrene (2) Browning Kearny Tap 115KV Hayden June 6, th BTA 5

6 2008 Phoenix Load Serving Capability , Valley Load (MW) , W est Phoenix-Lincoln Street 230kV Outage Agua Fria-Glendale 230kV Line , 9700 Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV Outage Kyrene-Corbell 230kV Line Safe Operating Area Valley Generation (MW) 2008 LSC Forecasted Peak Load June 6, th BTA 6

7 2008 Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Conditions PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008) MW MW GWH SIL = 9700 MW PEAK = 12,625 MW 9000 LOAD (MW) VALLEY LOAD HOURS Total Valley Energy = 56,651 GW H HOURS June 6, th BTA 7

8 2008 Phoenix Area Energy RMR Energy "in the money", 637 GWh, 1% Phoenix Area Total Load = 56,651 GWh RMR Energy "outside of economic dispatch", 13 GWh, 0% Load Requiring no RMR, 56,001 GWh, 99% $0M incremental cost 8

9 Phoenix Area Load 2015 (2) (2) 500kV Raceway 230kV Phoenix Area Load (2015) Gavilan Peak Pinnacle Peak 345kV (3) 500kV Westwing 230kV Deer Valley 69kV (2) Agua Fria Surprise 69kV (2) Avery 69kV (2) TS6 69kV (4) Brandow (2) Papago Butte Rogers (2) Deer Valley Lone Peak Reach Cactus Ocotillo (3) 500kV 230kV Coolidge 500kV 230kV Spook Hill 230kV TS5 Liberty TS1 Buckeye Critical Outage Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV Phoenix Limiting Element Area Load Voltage Instability 230kV Silver King TS4 500kV 230kV Kearny Tap Palo Verde/ Hassayampa Gila River 500kV (2) Jojoba 230KV 500kV (4) Rudd 69kV Knox 230kV 230kV 500kV (3) 500kV Kyrene 230kV 500kV South East Valley (3) 115kV Browning Hayden June 6, th BTA 9

10 2015 Phoenix Load Serving Capability , , Valley Load (MW) Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV Outage Voltage instability Safe Operating Area , Valley Generation (MW) 2015 LSC Forecasted Peak Load June 6, th BTA 10

11 2015 Phoenix Load Duration and RMR Conditions PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2015) , MW GWH SIL = 13,004 MW PEAK = 16,100 MW LOAD (MW) VALLEY LOAD HOURS Total Valley Energy = 72,083 GWH HOURS June 6, th BTA 11

12 2015 Phoenix Area Energy RMR Energy "in the money", 417 GWh, 1% Phoenix Area Total Load = 72,083 GWh RMR Energy "out of the money", 2 GWh, 0% Load Requiring no RMR, 71,664 GWh, 99% $0M incremental cost 12

13 Expected Phoenix Reserves MW MW Valley Generation (MW) Desired Reserves: 865 MW Expected Reserves 2015 Expected Reserves June 6, th BTA 13

14 Phoenix RMR Observations APS load is expected to exceed import capability for 845 hours in 2008, and 548 hours in RMR energy represents approximately 1% of the total energy. The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 865 MW. Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is less than $1M in both 2008 and Expected RMR costs do not justify Construction costs to relieve RMR requirements. June 6, th BTA 14

15 2008 Yuma Transmission System Knob Yuma Transmission System El Centro Pilot Knob QF1 YCA Imperial Valley N.Gila Hassayampa 525/69 KV Riverside 161/69 KV GT2 GT1 Yucca Mittry 10 thstreet New ST1 GT4 GT3 Cocopah Quechan Ivalon N.O. 161/69 KV Gila Laguna 32 nd Street Marine Air Base Araby Foothills TS8 500 kv 161 kv San Luis Critical Outage: Hassayampa-N.G. 500kV Limiting Element: Pilot Knob-Yucca 161kV Sonora 69 kv & below 161/69 KV 69/34.5 KV CFE (emergency tie) Metering point for the Yuma area load pocket June 6, th BTA 15

16 2008 Yuma Load Serving Capability , , ,426 Yuma Load (MW) , 264 Forecast = 426 MW Yuma Generation (MW) June 6, th BTA 16

17 2008 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Conditions YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008) PEAK = 426 MW 134 MW GWH 292 MW LOAD (MW) SIL = 264 MW YUMA LOAD HOURS Total Yuma Energy = 1,892 GWH HOURS June 6, th BTA 17

18 2008 APS Yuma Energy RMR Energy "in the money", 28 GWh, 1% APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,892 GWh RMR Energy "out of the money", 47 GWh, 2% Load Requiring no RMR, 1,817 GWh, 97% $1.3M incremental cost 18

19 2015 Yuma Transmission System Knob Yuma Transmission System El Centro Pilot Knob QF1 YCA Imperial Valley Hassayampa 525/230 KV 525/69 KV Riverside N.Gila 161/69 KV GT2 GT1 Yucca Mittry 10 thstreet New ST1 GT4 GT3 Cocopah Quechan Ivalon 161/69 KV Gila Laguna 32 nd Street TS8 Marine Air Base Araby Foothills San Luis 500 kv 161 Kv & above 69 kv & below 161/69 KV CFE (emergency tie) Critical Outage: Cocopah-Riverside 69kV Limiting Element: Riverside-10 th Street 69kV Metering point for the Yuma area load pocket 69/34.5 KV Sonora June 6, th BTA 19

20 2015 Yuma Load Serving Capability , Yuma Load (MW) , , 563 Forecast = 563 MW Yuma Generation (MW) June 6, th BTA 20

21 2015 Yuma Load Duration and RMR Conditions YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2015) 600 PEAK = 563 MW 95 MW 14 GWH MW SIL = 453 MW 400 LOAD (MW) 300 Y UMA LOAD HOURS Total Yuma Energy = 2,492 GWH HOURS June 6, th BTA 21

22 2015 APS Yuma Energy RMR Energy "in the money", 11.2 GWh, 0% APS Yuma Area Total Load = 2,492 GWh RMR Energy "out of the money", 2.8 GWh, 0% Load Requiring no RMR, 2,478 GWh, 100% $0M incremental cost 22

23 Expected Yuma Reserves MW MW Yuma Generation (MW) Desired Reserves: 138 MW Expected Reserves 2015 Expected Reserves June 6, th BTA 23

24 Yuma RMR Observations Yuma load is expected to exceed import capability for 1,703 hours in 2008, and 553 hours in The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 138 MW. Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is $1.3M in 2008 and less than $1M in Addition of 100mw of generation in Yuma in 2008 and a new 500kV line from the PV area to North Gila and a 230kV line from North Gila into the Yuma load area effectively manage RMR conditions. June 6, th BTA 24

25 Overall RMR Observations Benefits of local generation Increase reliability Local voltage support Contingency response Operating flexibility Reduced losses Lower transmission investment June 6, th BTA 25

26 ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies GLEN CANYON TO CRYSTAL NAVAJO FOUR CORNERS TO CALIF. MOENKOPI TO MEAD / MARKETPLACE SELIGMAN ROUND VALLEY YAVAPAI COCONINO VERDE FLAGSTAFF CHOLLA CORONADO RMR Load Pockets APS control area used for FERC SIL PALO VERDE- HASSAYAMPA GAVILAN PEAK PREACHER CANYON WEST WING PINNACLE PEAK LIBERTY KYRENE RUDD TO CALIF. 500KV N.GILA REDHAWK GILA RIVER GILA BEND JOJOBA KNOX SANTA ROSA BROWNING DESERT BASIN CASA GRANDE SILVERKING YUCCA TAT MOMOLI SAGUARO LEGEND EXISTING 500 KV LINES EXISTING 345 KV LINES EXISTING 230 KV LINES EXISTING 115 KV LINES POWER PLANT TUCSON NUCLEAR POWER PLANT 115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING) Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only and do not reflect any assumed physical locations or routing. NORTH 5/23/06 Transmission Planning 26

27 ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies ACC RMR Studies Load Pockets SIL Phoenix - Combined APS/SRP Yuma Load Pocket import capability with no generation FERC SIL Studies Control Area simultaneous import limit Decrease internal control area generation Increase external control area generation Stop when reach reliability limit June 6, th BTA 27

28 ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies FERC SIL Studies (cont.) Issues FERC methodology not consistent with operations in Western Interconnection TTC calculation Oasis posting Scaling of generation Uniform vs. maximize imports RMR limits for Phoenix & Yuma used in SIL Study FERC did not have issues with Phoenix & Yuma RMR limits June 6, th BTA 28