Knowledge Session. Power Paradigm Series I of III. Samiya Mukhtar
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1 Knowledge Session Power Paradigm Series I of III Samiya Mukhtar
2 POWER PARADIGM SERIES I Electricity Generation in Pakistann SERIES I Available Capacity SERIES I Actual Generation SERIES I Sources of Electricity SERIES I Cost of Generation SERIES II Electricity Consumption in Pakistan SERIES II Distribution of Electricity SERIES II Sales of Electricity SERIES II Current & Expected Demand of Electricity SERIES II The Subsidy SERIES III Power Sector of Pakistan SERIES III Refresher: Demand & Supply Dynamics SERIES III Regulatory bodies SERIES III Cost Comparison [ Long term perspective vs Meeting Immediate needs] SERIES III Projects in Pipeline SERIES III Key Issues
3 MWs ELECTRICITY GENERATION 25,000 Source wise Electricity Generation Capacity & Actual Production over the years 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Annual Installed Production Thermal IPPs 6,016 3,815 6,035 3,989 6,218 3,974 7,322 4,433 8,587 4,845 Hydel WAPDA 6,444 3,635 6,444 3,258 6,444 3,155 6,444 3,188 6,444 3,643 Thermal GENCOs 4,832 2,468 4,899 2,341 4,900 2,230 4,885 2,239 4,885 1,611 Thermal KESC 1, , , , , Nuclear Two Nuclear plants Thermal RPPs Thermal Others (CPPs/SPPs) Hydel IPPs Import Mainly from Iran
4 MW MW 25,000 ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL Eelectricity Generation by Fuel 250,000,000 20, ,000,000 15, ,000,000 10, ,000,000 5,000 50,000,000 - Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Import Nuclear Hydel 6,474 3,646 6,555 3,272 6,555 3,217 6,555 3,253 6,555 3,678 Thermal 12,754 7,259 13,215 7,499 13,539 7,390 14,597 7,811 16,070 7,641 Annual (MWhrs) 172,484,4 97,814,00 177,232,3 97,451,00 180,070,5 94,663,00 189,338,6 99,856,00 205,089,1 102,484,0 -
5 MW FUEL WISE CONTRIBUTION IN THERMAL ELECTRICITY Contribution of fuel in production of thermal electricity 8,000 80% 7,000 70% 6,000 60% 5,000 50% 4,000 40% 3,000 30% 2,000 20% 1,000 10% Coal FO+HSD 3,019 3,416 2,912 4,069 4,092 GAS 4,224 4,067 4,464 3,727 3,324 GAS % 58.2% 54.2% 60.4% 47.7% 44.7% FO+HSD % 41.6% 45.6% 39.4% 52.1% 55.1% Coal % 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0%
6 MW ELECTRICITY GENERATION (GENCOS & KESC) 6,000 GENCOs vs KESC (Installed & Actual) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Installed capacity Actual production Installed capacity Actual production Installed capacity Actual production Installed capacity Actual production Installed capacity Actual production Gencos KESC
7 MWH PKR ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF ST-RFO/CC-DUAL FUEL BASED IPPS 1600 Electricity Generation of ST-RFO/CC-Dual Fuel based IPPs Saba Power LalPir PakGen HUBCO KAPCO (CC Dual ) 0 Installed Units generated (MWH) Cost of Generation
8 PKR MWH ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF ENGINE BASED IPPS Electricity Generation of Engine based IPPs Japan Power Southern Power KEL ATGL APL NPL LPTL HNP NCPL 0 Installed Units generated (MWH) Cost of Generation
9 PKR ELECTRICITY GENERATION OF GAS BASED CC IPPS 700 Electricity Generation of Gas based CC IPPs Uch Roush TNBL Fauji Kabirwala Habibullah Altern (Engine) SECL Engro Saif OrientFPCDL 0 Installed Units generated (MWH) Cost of Generation
10 PKR PKR COST OF ELECTRICITY (FUEL COST) Fuel Cost Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Hydel Nuclear Coal Gas Import Wind Mixed HSD RFO
11 WHO DECIDES HOW MUCH TO PRODUCE? National Power Control Centre decides the operation and load dispatch of power plants: Based on Merit The Heat Rate Merit Order for Power Generation Plants (2011) Order Plant Fuel Type 1 Uch Gas Saif Gas Sapphire Electric Gas Foundation Power Gas KAPCO-I Gas Engro Gas KAPCO-II Gas KAPCO-III Gas Engro Mix KAPCO-I RFO HUBCO-N RFO Atlas RFO Nishat Power RFO 13.7 Cost per unit (PKR) Merit Order for Power Generation Plants (2011) Order Plant Fuel Type 45 Nishat Chunian RFO Liberty Power RFO KAPCO-II RFO KEL RFO HUBCO RFO LalPir RFO PakGen RFO KAPCO-I HSD Saif HSD Engro HSD KAPCO-II HSD KAPCO-III HSD GTPS Kotri 1-2 HSD 47.2 Cost per unit (PKR)
12 POWER PARADIGM SERIES II Electricity Consumption in Pakistan SERIES II Distribution of Electricity Units Produced Units Purchased Units Sold Losses SERIES II Sales of Electricity Units Billed Amount Billed Amount Realized SERIES II Current & Expected Demand SERIES II The Subsidy Per Capital Consumption Economic Segment wise consumption Projected Consumption GoP applicable tariff Nepra tariff Difference
13 Knowledge Session Power Paradigm Series II of III Samiya Mukhtar
14 POWER PARADIGM SERIES I Electricity Generation in Pakistan SERIES I Available Capacity SERIES I Actual Generation SERIES I Sources of Electricity SERIES I Cost of Generation SERIES II Electricity Consumption in Pakistan SERIES II Distribution of Electricity SERIES II Sales of Electricity SERIES II The Subsidy SERIES III Power Sector of Pakistan SERIES III Refresher: Demand & Supply Dynamics SERIES III Regulatory bodies SERIES III Cost Comparison [ Long term perspective vs Meeting Immediate needs] SERIES III Projects in Pipeline SERIES III Key Issues
15 MW MW REFRESHER ELECTRICITY GENERATION 25, ,000,000 20, ,000,000 15, ,000,000 10, ,000,000 5,000 50,000,000 - Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Installed Production Import Nuclear Hydel 6,474 3,646 6,555 3,272 6,555 3,217 6,555 3,253 6,555 3,678 Thermal 12,754 7,259 13,215 7,499 13,539 7,390 14,597 7,811 16,070 7,641 Annual (MWhrs) 172,484,4 97,814,00 177,232,3 97,451,00 180,070,5 94,663,00 189,338,6 99,856,00 205,089,1 102,484,0 - MW GW
16 PKR PKR REFRESHER COST OF ELECTRICITY Fuel Cost Average cost in PKR % production Per Unit Production Cost Hydel % 0.1 Coal 3.0 0% 0.0 HSD % 0.1 RFO % 4.1 Gas % 0.9 Nuclear 1.0 3% 0.0 Import 4.6 0% 0.0 Mixed % 0.1 Wind 9.1 0% * 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Hydel Nuclear Coal Gas Import Wind Mixed HSD RFO Add Cap Charges / Unit 1.82 Electricity Procurement Price 7.06 * PKR 5.62 as per CPPA procurement report
17 MONTH WISE FUEL CONSUMPTION 100% Month wise consumption of fuel (FY11) 90% 80% 25% 25% 25% 27% 28% 26% 26% 22% 24% 27% 26% 25% 70% 60% 50% 40% 48% 45% 37% 43% 30% 16% 31% 27% 25% 36% 36% 40% 30% 49% 20% 10% 31% 25% 27% 31% 25% 38% 42% 45% 43% 33% 34% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Coal HSD RFO Hydel Gas Nuclear Import Mixed
18 PROJECTED GENERATION & COST OF GENERATION (FY12) Budgeted Generation Budgeted Energy Cost Per Unit G. Cost GW PKR in mln PKR in mln Generation % Energy Charges % Thermal -RFO 33, , Hydel 28, , Thermal -Gas 23, , Nuclear 4, , HSD 1, , Mixed , Import from Iran , Coal Wind , % 641, % 6.9 Capacity Charges 169,582 Total Generation Cost 811,299 Per Unit Cost 8.72
19 GWH DISCO WISE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY TO COUNTRY 16,000 14,740 16,000 14,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 10,190 10,072 8,712 8,598 12,000 10,000 8,000 7,674 8,000 6,000 6,440 5,813 4,048 6,000 GWH 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 LESCO MEPCO KESC PESCO FESCO IESCO GEPCO HESCO QESCO Others , Bulk Supply Public Light Agriculture 1,062 2, ,265 Commercial 1, , Domestic 5,900 4,982 4,257 5,577 3,923 3,367 3,632 3, Industrial 6,036 2,302 3,447 1,653 3,079 1,561 1,783 1, Total 14,740 10,190 10,072 8,712 8,598 7,674 6,440 5,813 4,048 - % of Total 19% 13% 13% 11% 11% 10% 8% 8% 5%
20 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN Public Light 0.6% Segment wise Electricity Consumption Bulk Supply 4.6% Others 1.6% Agriculture 11.8% Commercial 7.5% Domestic 46.2% Industrial 27.7%
21 TRANSMISSION LOSSES Energy Produced [PEPCO System (GW) EPP chargable (PKR in mln) Energy Sold (GW) Transmission loss Tranmission loss Tranmission loss Per Unit cost no of units (GW) PKR in mln % Jul-10 9,022 40,289 8, (285,) (1,314) (3.2%) Aug-10 8,940 32,880 8, (210) (791) (2.3%) Sep-10 8,202 32,793 7, (217,) (891) (2.6%) Oct-10 7,701 35,867 7, (205) (981) (2.7%) Nov-10 6,556 27,082 6, (160) (677) (2.4%) Dec-10 6,650 37,276 6, (240) (1,401) (3.6%) Jan-11 6,361 47,434 6, (212) (1,638) (3.3%) Feb-11 5,709 35,597 5, (158) (1,020) (2.8%) Mar-11 6,671 46,305 6, (205) (1,472) (3.1%) Apr-11 6,715 48,738 6, (156) (1,166) (2.3%) May-11 8,815 53,472 8, (318) (2,006) (3.6%) Jun-11 9,133 55,778 8, (329) (2,091) (3.6%) - Annual 90, ,518 87, (2,741) (20,100) (3.0%) KESC and others 12,003 65,534 9, (2,079) (15,480) (3.0%)
22 DISCO WISE DISTRIBUTION LOSSES Units Purchased Units Sold/Billed Dist Losses Amount Lost PESCO 13,396 8,712 (35%) (37,132) IESCO 8,502 7,674 (-10%) (7,230) GEPCO 7,314 6,439 (-12%) (7,624) LESCO 16,995 14,741 (-13%) (21,177) FESCO 9,685 8,596 (-11%) (9,411) MEPCO 12,471 10,189 (-18%) (18,955) HESCO 8,784 5,814 (-34%) (27,228) QESCO 5,084 4,048 (-20%) (7,997) KESC 15,433 10,072 (-35%) (56,961) 97,664 76,285 (-22%) (190,903) Accounting for 12% T&D Losses : (87,408)
23 DISCO WISE RECOVERIES Units Sold/Billed Amount Billed Amount Realized Recovery Ratio Amount Lost PESCO 8,712 69,065 54, % (14,919) IESCO 7,674 67,015 62, % (4,435) GEPCO 6,439 56,111 55, % (652) LESCO 14, , , % (2,629) FESCO 8,596 74,289 74, % (178) MEPCO 10,189 84,637 82, % (1,715) HESCO 5,814 53,302 31, % (21,801) QESCO 4,048 31,250 12, % (18,440) KESC 10, ,016 91, % (15,457) 76, , , % (80,226) No. of units received 67,092 (67,360)
24 DISCO WISE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY TO COUNTRY PEPCO SYSTEM Units Purchased Units Sold/Billed Units Lost Sales Price (25,163) (23,549) (24,081) (25,562) (26,235) 8.9 KESC Total (611) (1,132) (923) (733) (25,774) (24,681) (25,004) (26,295) (26,199) 8.8
25 RECOVERIES Units Purchased Units Recove Sold/Billed Amount Billed Amount Realizedry Ratio Amount Lost PESCO ,712 69,065 54, % (14,919) IESCO ,674 67,015 62, % (4,435) GEPCO ,439 56,111 55, % (652) LESCO , , , % (2,629) FESCO ,596 74,289 74, % (178) MEPCO ,189 84,637 82, % (1,715) HESCO ,814 53,302 31, % (21,801) QESCO ,048 31,250 12, % (18,440) KESC , ,016 91, % (15,457) 97,664 76, , , % (80,226)
26 SUBSIDIES Country Description Tariff Determined by NEPRA (Rs./kwh) Tariff Notified by GOP (Rs./kwh) Subsidy Rs./kWh)
27 TRANSITION
28 WHAT IS AT CONTINUOUSLY AT STAKE?????? GW Units Units Lost PKR GoP Money PKR in mln Annual Production 102,484 Units Purchased by CPPA/PEPCO/NTDC 90,481 KESC own production 7,826 CPPs connected to KESC System 2,183 CPPs connected to PEPCO System 1,993 (4,820) 5.62 Units transmitted for distribution 97,664 (4,820) 7.44 (35,884) Units Purchased by DISCOS 82,231 Units Purchased by KESC 15,433 (21,379) 8.95 Units reached to Identifiable consumers 76,285 (9,766) 8.95 (87,409) From DISCOS 66,213 From KESC 10,072 Units against which Bills are received 67,092 From DISCOS 58,474 From KESC 8,617 (9,193) 7.33 (67,360) (35,392) Transmission, Distribution & Theft Losses (190,653) Subsidy 102,484 (1.62) (166,291) Circular Debt (356,943)
29 Knowledge Session Power Paradigm Series III of III Samiya Mukhtar
30 POWER PARADIGM SERIES I Electricity Generation in Pakistan SERIES I Available Capacity SERIES I Actual Generation SERIES I Sources of Electricity SERIES I Cost of Generation SERIES II Electricity Consumption in Pakistan SERIES II Distribution of Electricity SERIES II Sales of Electricity SERIES II The Subsidy SERIES III Power Sector of Pakistan SERIES III Refresher: Demand & Supply Dynamics SERIES III Regulatory bodies SERIES III Cost Comparison [ Long term perspective vs Meeting Immediate needs] SERIES III Projects in Pipeline SERIES III Key Issues
31 NEPRA TARIFF AS ON Source: State of Industry Report +Annual Budgets - FY12 (DISCOS) GOP TARIFF AS ON (For All DISCOS) Avg Sales Mix% FC VC Residential 42.5% For Sanctioned Load less than 5KW Upto 50 units 3.2% 1.87 For consumption exceeding 50 Units 0.0% % % % > % For Sanctioned Load above 5KW 0.0% ToU - Peak 0.1% ToU - Off-Peak 0.3% 6.7
32 NEPRA TARIFF AS ON Source: State of Industry Report +Annual Budgets -FY12 (DISCOS) GOP TARIFF AS ON (For All DISCOS) Avg Sales Mix% FC VC Commercial 7.1% For Sanctioned Load less than 5KW 3.8% 13 For Sanctioned Load above 5KW 0.0% Regular 0.8% ToU - Peak 0.4% ToU - Off-Peak 2.1% INDUSTRIAL 23.6% B1 Less than 5KW 1.9% 8.9 B1 TOU (Peak) 0.0% B1 TOU (Off-Peak) 0.2% 6.7 B2-500KW 2.7% B2 - ToU (Peak) 0.6% B2 - ToU (Off-Peak) 3.6% B2 - ToU (Peak) 1.0% B3 - TOU (Off-Peak) 9.0% B4 -TOU (Peak) at 66KV 0.7% B4- TOU (off-peak) 3.9%
33 NEPRA TARIFF AS ON Source: State of Industry Report +Annual Budgets -FY12 (DISCOS) GOP TARIFF AS ON (For All DISCOS) Avg Sales Mix% FC VC BULK SUPPLY 3.1% C1 a Supply at 400 Volts - less than 5KW 0.0% 9.9 C1 b Supply at 400 Volts - 5KW & above 0.5% ToU - Peak 0.0% ToU - Off Peak 0.1% C2 Supply at 11KV 1.3% ToU - Peak 0.1% ToU - Off Peak 0.7% C2 Supply above 11KV 0.2% ToU - Peak 0.0% ToU - Off Peak 0.2% AGRICULTURE 17.3% SCARP 1.9% 8.47 AgriculturalTube wells 10.3% ToU - Peak 0.8% ToU - Off Peak 4.0% PUBLIC LIGHTING 6.9% 12 RESIDENTIAL COLONIES ATT, TO INDUSTRIES 0.2% RAILWAY TRACTION 0.0% 9.96 AJK 5.5% ToU - Peak 0.2% ToU - Off Peak 1.0%
34 POWER PARADIGM POWER PARADIGM Electricity Demand Vs Supply Electricity Generation Electricity Distribution Maximum Electricity Demand in the country Intalled Capacity vs Actual Production (MW per hour) DISCO wise consumers (numbers in mln) % Hydel 6,555 6,555 6,555 PESCO % Country 21, , ,765.0 Actual 49% 50% 56% IESCO % GEPCO % Thermal 13,539 14,597 16,070 LESCO % Supply/Deficit in Demand & Supply during System Peak Hours (MW) Actual 55% 54% 48% FESCO % MEPCO % Nuclear HESCO % Nuclear 37% 66% 44% QESCO % Generation Capability 16,040 15,144 15,430 KESC % Demand During Peak Hours 20,314 21,029 21,086 Import Total % Surplus/Deficit (4,156) (5,547) (5,000) Growth 3.7% 4.7% 3.6% Total Installed Capacity 20,556 21,614 23, Growth 2% 5% 8% Segment wise consumption Planned Generation Capability 21,746 24,212 25,081 Total Actual Production 10,777 11,368 11,665 Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Public Light Bulk Supply Others Total Projected Demand Growth Rate (NTDC) 8% 7% 7% Growth -3% 5% 3% LESCO 5,900 1,225 6,036 1, ,740 19% Projected Demand 25,284 27,092 29,032 Actual vs Installed 52% 53% 50% MEPCO 4, ,302 2, ,190 13% Surplus/Deficit (3,538) (2,880) (3,951) KESC 4,257 1,043 3, ,072 13% Total Available Electricity in MWH 10,806 11,399 11,699 PESCO 5, , ,712 11% Total Available Electricity in Mln Units 94,663 99, ,484 FESCO 3, , ,598 11% IESCO 3, , ,031 7,674 10% Power Generation Projects in Pipeline ( ) Weighted Average Production Cost during FY11 GEPCO 3, , ,440 8% HESCO 3, , ,813 8% No Capacity (MW) Expected Cost Expected Cost/MW Average cost in PKR % production WA Production Cost/ Per Unit QESCO , ,048 5% Total 35,230 5,726 21,145 8, ,528 1,250 76, % 46% 8% 28% 12% 1% 5% 2% 100% Public Sector RFO % 4.1 Hydel 12 2,358 96, Gas % 0.9 Transmission & Distribution Private Sector Hydel % 0.1 Units Lost GW Units PKR GoP Money Oil Based HSD % , Pipeline Quality Gas Mixed % 0.1 Annual Production 102, Dedicated Gas Fields Coal 3 0% 0.0 Hydel 16 5,271 10, Nuclear 1 3% 0.0 Units Purchased by CPPA/PEPCO/NTDC 0.09 Coal 7 1,725 2, Import 4.6 0% 0.0 KESC own production 7, NAPHTA Wind 9.1 0% 0.0 CPPs connected to KESC System 2, Total 37 9,158 15, CPPs connected to PEPCO System 92, (4,820) 5.62 Cap Charges paid to thermal units 1.82 Units transmitted for distribution 97, (4,820) 7.44 (35,884) Electricity Procurement Price 7.06 Units Purchased by DISCOS 82, Units Purchased by KESC 15, (21,379) 8.95 Units reached to Identifiable consumers 76, (9,766) 8.95 (87,409) From DISCOS 66, From KESC 10, (9,193) 7.33 (67,360) Units against which Bills are received 67, From DISCOS 58, From KESC 8, (35,392) Total T&D Losses (190,653) Subsidy 102,484 (1.62) (166,291) Circular Debt (356,943)
35 THANK YOU
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