DMM 2017 Q4 Report Highlights
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1 DMM 2017 Q4 Report Highlights Gabe Murtaugh Senior Analyst Department of Market Monitoring Conference Call February 21, 2018
2 Outline Real-time market performance Higher prices in the 15-minute market Large congestion revenue rights losses EIM market performance Special issues and recommendations Wind and solar downward dispatch Use of Aliso Canyon measures Capacity procurement Page 2
3 Prices in the 15-minute market were higher than prices in the real-time and day-ahead markets in October. $50 Day-ahead 15-Minute 5-Minute $40 Price ($/MWh) $30 $20 $10 $0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 3
4 ISO prices continue to follow the net-load pattern. Net loads were lowest during the middle of the day. $120 Day-ahead 15-minute 5-minute Average net load 30,000 Price ($/MWh) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Average net system load (MW) $ Page 4
5 The power balance constraint was triggered more frequently in the 15-minute market this quarter. Percent of 15-minute intervals 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Valid under-supply infeasibility (shortage) Load bias limiter resolved infeasibility Corrected or invalid infeasibility Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 5
6 The ISO began setting operating reserve requirements in the North of Path 26 area to meet BAL *ISO Full Network Model Page 6
7 Auction revenues were significantly lower than payments made to congestion revenue rights holders. Revenues and payments ($ million) $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Auction revenues received by ratepayers Payments to auctioned CRRs Auction revenues as a percent of payments 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Percent of auctioned CRR payments $0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0% Page 7
8 Payments for the flexible ramping capacity product were low in the fourth quarter. $6.00 California ISO PacifiCorp East $0.24 Total payments ($ million) $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 PacifiCorp West Puget Sound Energy Portland General Electric NV Energy Arizona Public Service Payments per MWh of load $0.20 $0.16 $0.12 $0.08 $0.04 Payments per MWh load ($/MWh) $0.00 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $0.00 The ISO discussed issues with the flexible ramping capacity with the Market Planning and Performance meeting on Feb 20: Page 8
9 Prices in all energy imbalance markets continue to mirror patterns in the ISO. Average hourly price ($/MWh) $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 PacifiCorp West, Puget Sound Energy, and Portland General Electric PacifiCorp East NV Energy and Arizona Public Service Southern California Edison $ Page 9
10 Energy imbalance market participants are failing the sufficiency test less often than last year. 60% 50% California ISO PacifiCorp East PacifiCorp West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Percent of hours 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 10
11 NV Energy exports during most hours of the day. 400 PacifiCorp East to NV Energy California ISO to NV Energy Imports into NV Energy (MW) Imports into NVE Exports from NVE Average transfer Page 11
12 Arizona Public Service imports during the peak solar hours, and exports during other hours of the day. 400 PacifiCorp East to Arizona Public Service Imports into Arizona (MW) Imports into APS Exports from APS California ISO to Arizona Public Service Average transfer Page 12
13 PacifiCorp West exports during most hours of the day. Imports into PacifiCorp West (MW) Imports into PACW Exports from PACW ISO to PacifiCorp West PacifiCorp East to PacifiCorp West Puget Sound Energy to PacifiCorp West Portland to PacfiCorp West Average transfer Page 13
14 Renewable downward dispatch increased from 2016, while curtailments continued to be very small. Megatwatt hour (thousands) Economic downward dispatch (ISO) Self-scheduled curtailment (ISO) Economic downward dispatch (EIM) Wind and solar percent reduction (ISO) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Percent reduction 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Page 14
15 Aliso adders were in place for a large number of days during the quarter. Page 15
16 Many of the resources eligible for the Aliso adders did not include them in bids. 100% Bid does not use scalar Bid uses scalar, at or near cap Bid uses scalar, not near cap Percent SoCalGas minimum load capacity 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 7-Dec 8-Dec 9-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 14-Dec 15-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec 20-Dec 21-Dec 22-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec 28-Dec 29-Dec 30-Dec 31-Dec Page 16
17 Aliso Canyon adders resulted in about $5 million of DMM estimated additional payments during Bid cost recovery payments ($ million) $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 Excess bid cost recovery payments due to Aliso scalars Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Page 17
18 Natural gas prices form the prior day tended to differ from next-day indices. 25% 110% 125% Percent of traded volume 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200% 240% 280% 320% 360% 400% Trade price as percent of next-day index price from prior day Page 18
19 Average natural gas prices at 8:30 tended to reflect next-day indices. 50% 110% 125% Percent of traded volume 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Trade price as percent of average at 8:30 a.m. Page 19
20 Several procurements were made for capacity in the fourth quarter and for Resource CPM designation (MW) CPM deisgnation dates Price ($/kw-mon) Estimated cost ($ million) Local capacity area Exceptional dispatch CPM trigger MANDALAY GEN STA. UNIT /24-11/22 $6.31 $0.73 System Higher loads in real-time MANDALAY GEN STA. UNIT /05-2/02 $6.31 $2.67 SCE Local availability for wildfire MANDALAY GEN STA. UNIT /05-2/02 $6.31 $2.67 SCE Local availability for wildfire MANDALAY GEN STA. UNIT /05-2/02 $6.31 $1.61 SCE Local availability for wildfire Resource CPM designation (MW) Price ($/kw-mon) Estimated cost ($ million) Local capacity area Exceptional dispatch CPM trigger MOSS LANDING POWER BLOCK $6.19 $38.4 PG&E Material sub-area deficiency ENCINA UNIT $6.31 $20.9 SDG&E Material sub-area deficiency ENCINA UNIT $6.31 $21.0 SDG&E Material sub-area deficiency Metcalf received a designation for reliability must-run. Page 20
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