Raw Materials Supply/Demand Scenarios for Emerging Technologies A German Perspective

Transcription

1 German Day PDAC /03/06 Win-Win-Scenarios for Canadian German Partnerships in the Raw Materials Sector Raw Materials Supply/Demand Scenarios for Emerging Technologies A German Perspective Michael Schmidt German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources is the central geoscientific authority providing advice to the German Federal Government in all geo-relevant questions. It is subordinate to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Source: Fotolia

2 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at BGR Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR): Central authority providing advice to the German Government in all geo-relevant questions. Subordinate to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi).

3 Tasks and Duties of DERA DERA-office: Ad hoc information for the German Industry. Evaluation of mineral resources: Contributions for a sustainable and secure raw materials supply. Mineral economics: Raw Materials Information and Analysis.

4 Tasks and Duties of DERA Demand Supply Prices + + Risk Analysis Screening of Demand Screening of Global Production Screening of Prices Detailed Analysis Technological Development Economic Development Weaknesses in the supply chain Supply chain analysis Price formation Price development Evaluation of indicators Future market balance Risk assessment DERA Services for a Sustainable and Secure Raw Material Supply

5 Raw Materials for Emerging Technologies blob=publicationfile&v=5

6 Lithium-Ion Batteries (Energy Storage) What defines the demand of raw materials for lithium-ion batteries now and in the future? - Market Penetration (i.e. expectations) - Technological Concept (PHEV, BEV) - Battery Size - Chemical Composition (Current) - Chemical Composition (Future) Source: Volkswagen AG 2017

7 Market Penetration: Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids 2016 (global) Mio. Passenger Cars (Gasoline, Diesel, HEV, PHEV, BEV) Mio. Electric Vehicles (BEV, PHEV, no commercial vehicles) - Global Penetration Rate 1,1 % Units (Mio.) EV Penetration Rate EU (total) [%] Germany [%] ,5 0, ,0 1, Source: EV VOLUMES 2018

8 German Perspective. The German automotive industry is committed to an offensive strategy for the mobility of tomorrow. (Matthias Wissmann, President VDA, Press conference 12/02/2016) - Currently 30 Models available from German OEM s Models by Investment of more than 40 Bill. by German OEM s until 2020 into E-mobility. - Investment of about 20 Bill. by German OEM s until 2020 into digitalization. - Currently Germany holds 58% of all Patents associated to connected and autonomous mobility (concepts). - Current adoption rate of E-Mobility < 2% - VDA expects adoption rates of 15 25% by JV planned between BMW-Group, Daimler AG, Volkswagen AG & Ford Motor Co. for a High-Power-DC-Charging Network within Europe (Combined Charging System = CCS). JV currently awaiting approval by legal authorities kW Infrastructure (Starting 2017 with 400 charger stations). Source:

9 Market Penetration: Share of German OEMs in Global EV-Markets 80% 70% 69% 75% *In the US 15% of Electro-Light Vehicles from German OEMs. 60% 50% 40% 61% 52% 48% 49% 58% 43% 47% 49% 48% 49% 30% 20% 27% 26% 15% 21% 10% 0% Germany France Great Britain Norway Sweden Belgium Western Europe Overall market (Jan.-June 2017) Electric vehicles (Jan.-June 2017) 8% 5% 7% 2% USA (LV)* China Japan Source: KBA, Ward s, Fourin, IHS Market

10 LIB-Growth Scenario 2025 (~10 Mio. EV New Registrations in 2025 ) 500 EV Implications on raw material supply. 400 EES Power devices Aftermarket +67 Cobalt Lithium 300 Portable Equipment Nickel Graphite Source: DERA 2017

11 Battery Size Source: VDA 2017 Source: LG Chem Battery Size: in kwh (average) Implications for raw material demand. Source: Umicore 2017

12 Chemical Composition (Current Technologies) Cobalt, Nickel, Manganese Lithium Graphite (natural & synthetic) -powder, -salts -sulfate, -oxide -carbonate, -hydroxide Spherical Graphite Cathode Electrolyte Anode Source: ZSW 2017

13 Chemical Composition (Current Technologies) BMW i3 Modell 2017 ( kwh) 35 kg Graphite 12 kg Cobalt 12 kg Manganese 12 kg Nickel BMW i3 Battery Cell (1 of 96) Source: BMW kg Lithium + Aluminium + Copper (DERA estimates)

14 Chemical Composition (Technological Evolution) Raw material needs due to technological changes in battery chemistry. 0,7 0,7 kg/kwh 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 Our cells should be called Nickel-Graphite, because primarily the cathode is nickel and the anode side is graphite with silicon oxide [there s] a little bit of lithium in there, but it s like the salt on the salad. (Elon Musk) 0 (DERA estimates) Nickel Cobalt Manganese Lithium

15 DERA Criticality List 2016 (Update 2018) Metals Coking Coal Industrial Minerals Weighted Country Risk [GLR] Country Concentration [HHI]

16 Cobalt: Key Material for E-Mobility Even with lower metal contents, Cobalt demand will increase by almost 90%. Market balance in 2025 seems possible, but depends on DRC and China January 2018: Cobalt (kt) % US$/t Demand 2016 Base case: ~10 Mio. EV Registrations in 2025 (370 GWh) Additional demand non-ev Additional demand LIB-EV Demand 2025 (DERA estimates) % LME Cobalt Jan. 17 Apr. 17 Jul. 17 Okt. 17 Jan. 18 Source: DERA 2017

17 Lithium: No Lithium-Ion Battery without it. Base case: ~10 Mio. EV Registrations in 2025 (370 GWh) 100,0 90,0 80, t Li t Li Demand increase: factor ,0 60,0 [%] 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, (Roskill 2016a) 2025 (DERA 2017) Demand Demand 2025 (DERA 2017) Other Aluminium Primary Batteries Air Treatment Metallurgical Powders Polymers Glass Greases Glass-Ceramics Ceramics Rechargeable Batteries

18 Lithium: No Lithium-Ion Battery without it Market balance in 2025 probable based on our scenarios but depended on numerous factors. October 2017: YoY = 108 % US$/t % t Li content % Li 2 CO 3 (DERA estimates) Current Production (2015) Additional capacities 2025 New projects 2025 Source: DERA 2017

19 Nickel: The Real Battery Raw Material Class 1 LME Nickel (kt) Lithium-ion batteries will become the largest driver of Nickel Class 1 (> 99 % Ni.). 910 Demand Additional demand non-ev 234 Base case: ~10 Mio. EV Registrations in 2025 (370 GWh) Additional demand LIB-EV Demand 2025 (DERA estimates) LME Stocks [kt] High LME-stocks of Nickel. Mining cutbacks due to depressed prices. Class 1 Nickel as feedstock for EV-grade Nickel Supply uncertainties tied to political and Sulfate Class 1 currently mostly stainless & special steel industry. Class 2 Nickel: ~1 Mio.t market environmental actions in Indonesia, Philippines and China. BHP, Vale and Norilsk in the NiSO 4 market? Investments necessary for future demand of NiSO 4. Market balance in 2025 possible and probable. US$/t

20 Graphite: Essential for the Anode! Graphite (kt) Graphite is the most commonly used material in lithium-ion battery anodes. Flake graphite (as feedstock for SG) Demand Base case: ~10 Mio. EV Registrations in 2025 (370 GWh) Additional demand non-ev Additional demand LIB-EV Demand 2025 (DERA estimates) US$/t China: Environmental regulation? Consolidiation of Graphite industry? Africa: % January 2018: Ramp-up of new projects? (Syrah > 200 kt/a) Also: High dependance on China in terms of 800production of spherical Graphite! 700Half of todays flake graphite demand comes from the refractory industry % crystaline Market balance in 2025 possible and probable.

21 Final Thoughts Raw materials for the mentioned technologies are geologically not scarce. Seller s market: Price rally for Lithium & Cobalt. New projects and expansions of current producers will need to supply the increasing demand in the mid- and long term. Large investments necessary. Challenges remain to increase the production Purchasing risks remain high due to concentrated markets. Specific qualities (battery grade) may become bottlenecks. Sustainable sourcing strategy will be of importance. Closing the loop: Recycling will become important. EV market depends on the developments in China. Source: Fotolia

22 German Day PDAC /03/06 Win-Win-Scenarios for Canadian German Partnerships in the Raw Materials Sector Raw Materials Supply/Demand Scenarios for Emerging Technologies A German Perspective Michael Schmidt German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources is the central geoscientific authority providing advice to the German Federal Government in all geo-relevant questions. It is subordinate to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Source: Fotolia