ELECTRIC VEHICLES Challenges & Status. Didier PEDELMAS General Manager PGA Ellada (Renault/Dacia Importer)

Transcription

1 ELECTRIC VEHICLES Challenges & Status Didier PEDELMAS General Manager PGA Ellada (Renault/Dacia Importer) October 24, 2009

2 SOME FACTS October 24, 2009

3 A MORE AND MORE URBAN WORLD An increasing fraction of the world population is living in cities 2006 : > 50% 2050 : > 70% Specific need of mobility in suburban areas Average distance covered daily by a suburban driver (Paris area) 37% 13% 50% < 20 km/day > 60 3

4 DETAIL ON CO2 EFFICIENCY Megane ch Gasoline 192 Megane ch GNV European mix 163 Megane 1.5 dci 85ch Diesel Coal (w/o CCS*) Coal (IGCC*) 123 European mix Natural gas Wood Nuclear Windmill Well to tank CO 2 emissions (g/km) Tank to wheels * CCS = capture & sequestration of CO 2 * IGCC = Integrated gasification on a combined cycle 4

5 PROFESSIONAL USE : POSTAL SERVICES in FRANCE More than 90% of the fleet, travels less than 100 km a day... with an average around 60 km! 5

6 EV: NECESSITY TO BE SUBSIDIZED But 4,500 Expenses (Fuel & overcost amortization) in per year 4,000 3,500 3,000 Fuel spending in 2007 Detailed after 200$ per barrel 150$ per barrel 2, $ per barrel 2,000 1,500 1,000 A/B C D EV without CO 2 Tax EV with CO 2 Tax A-E segment Fleet Private Mileage per year (in km) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Source: Auto mag 6

7 RENAULT/NISSAN An integrated approach to EV October 24, 2009

8 THE OVERALL STRATEGY- AN INTERNATIONAL and 360 APPROACH Renault and Nissan aiming at leading zero emission vehicles category. Consider EV as volume vehicles (not niche/fashion) because have a true ecological and economical future and aims at 10% of the total volume sold by the end of For this purpose, Renault and Nissan develop a full line up of EVs that will be in the market from 2011 Involve companies in charge of building batteries Involve Power supply companies for charging stations Involve governments and/or regional/local authorities to support a long term deployment 8

9 Large experience in electric mobility Vehicles start of battery research Prairie EV Altra EV Hyper Mini EV Tino HEV 03 FCV 05 FCV 08 FCV Clio EV Kangoo EV Lithium Ion Batteries Cylinder type Laminated type Battery focused research since Fleet test delivered practical experience. Ownership of competitive EV know-how. 9

10 Our complementary Zero Emission line-up Hatchback 2010 City Car 2012 Urban EV 2011 Crossover Sedan 2011 Specific EV 2012 Kangoo 2011 LCV

11 Zero emission concepts Frankfurt Sept 09 11

12 Zero emission concepts Frankfurt Sept 09 12

13 The Electric Engine 13

14 THE OVERALL STRATEGY Two other elements for EV are key: Battery technology Infrastructures/charging 14

15 TECHNICAL BREAKTHROUGH: LITHIUM ION BATTERIES- JV Material Cell Module Pack Vehicle NISSAN AND NEC JOINT VENTURE - AESC - STARTS OPERATIONS uro investment to mass produce advanced lithium-ion batteries NB: A pack is made of 192 modules : much cheaper to repair or replace in case of failure 15

16 Battery Lithium Ion 16

17 Consequence on autonomy EV driving range to be steadily improved. Driving range (Km) 500 Generation 1 Hyper Mini 100km Generation 3 300km Generation 2 160km Generation 4 over 400km ~ 17

18 TECHNICAL EVOLUTION ON BATTERIES Lightweight Li-ion batteries allow autonomy 100 km (up to 150km for 20kWh) Performance, safety, recyclability ENERGY DENSITY Wh/kg YESTERDAY TODAY TOMORROW LI-ION : PRICE EVOLUTION 0 Lead Acid NiCd NiMH Li-ion Others BATTERY CHEMISTRY 18

19 THE OVERALL STRATEGY Two other elements for EV are key: Battery technology Infrastructures/charging 19

20 Infrastructures/Charging 20

21 THE INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORK Standard Charge 3 kw/10-16a- 6h to 8h + NEED FOR SMART NAVIGATION TO LOCATE SPOTS, BOOK THEM AND MANAGE AUTONOMY Quick charge 43 kw- 32A to 65 A 3phases 20mn to 30mn (20 Kwh) 21

22 THE INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORK Better Place Project Optional Swap stations 22

23 SWAP STATION 23

24 SWAP STATION PROTOTYPE 24

25 GRID CAPACITY Assuming 80% of users will charge at home and at night, a car is consuming between 2000 and 2200 Kwh per year 25

26 SUMMARY - Only 150km of autonomy (2009) + No need to look for a tank station + No big maintenance and ability to maintain without lift Ability to provide real freedom + Few running costs + No pollution and no noise 26

27 THE BUSINESS CASE October 24, 2009

28 EV model change (estimated): PURCHASE 5-year / 75000km ICE/EV differences for customer Running cost (battery in leasing) Supplement of Euros Incl Battery Maintenance Cost difference: 1300 Battery lease Cost + infrastructure Petrol Veh. EV Retail price Petrol Cost : 6500 Electricity cost 1500 Gain in running

29 Cost forecast if EV starts efficiently Lithium-ion Battery Wh cost $2.6 (2004) $0.5 (2015) Source : HEV Market Report (HiEdge, 2008) 29

30 NEW ACTIVITIES ELEC UTILITY OTHER PARTNER OTHER PARTNER Car BOUGHT AND MAINTAINED IN THE AUTOMOTIVE NETWORK Battery BATTERY LEASED BY CUSTOMER OTHER PARTNER Energy, Infrastructures CONTRACT FOR ENERGY SUPPLY Customer 30

31 EV Business Models EV business fields Model 1 Model 2 (Germany) Model 3 (Spain) Model 4 (Israel) Vehicle Sell/lease OEM OEM OEM Sell/lease OEM OEM Operator Battery Resale OEM OEM Operator Recycle Information system OEM OEM OEM OEM Operator OEM B-PLC model (Vehicle and Battery supply only) Charging Private (Home) Public Area Operator Operator Operator Operator Swap Operator Operator OEM to take a lead Ask operator to manage 31

32 TYPE of INCENTIVE France : 5000 Spain : 6000 going to 0 in 2020 Israel : vehicle tax: 10% instead of 80% Portugal : 800, no VAT, no circulation tax Greece: no registration tax, reduced annual tax Support for take off : Infrastructure Demo fleets 32

33 Key programs with governments (Regional and National) Israel : tax 10% ilo 80% for EV Denmark: tax on vehicles from 105% to 180%...EV=0 Japan: Kanagawa Prefecture announced a tax exemption for EV Portugal: direct EV partnership USA/Tennesse: EV partnership USA/Oregon: development of a charging network USA/North California: solution for zero emission mobility + charging network Switzerland/Energie Ouest: mobility and charging Ireland: ESB partnership China: pilot program in 13 cities for public transport 33

34 Savings for the government Less ecological impact European Commission for Cities : Urban Data (European commission standards) Air pollution costs (ct/km) 0.3 Noise costs (ct/km) 1.4 Climate change costs ( /ton) 45 Impact increases with heat, humidity and decrease with wind In France for example, an incentive of 5000 Euros is fully covered by direct and indirect electricity impact on pollution/noise and climate changes 34

35 SUMMARY EV is A strategy and must imply all parties (Governments, Utilities, region, cities) because of - business model (start with incentives) - long term commitment to reduce emission and costs, and reach the critical mass for a viable case - infrastructures involved (charging stations and other models) - management of power supply 35

36 36

37 THANK YOU October 24, 2009