Materials availability:

Transcription

1 Materials availability: Batteries, motors and electric vehicles Jamie Speirs SMEET II 27 th February 2013

2 Overview Context of the research: The UKERC TPA Electric vehicle case study Demand side Supply side Findings

3 Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) Advisory board Research question Expert group Systematic review Scoping note Peer review Publication

4 Previous Assessments

5 Material availability TPA Thin-film photovoltaics Batteries and magnets Criticality assessment comparison Energy materials handbook Final synthesis report / policy brief: Summer 2013

6 Electric Vehicle Metals Henri Pieper Hybrid vehicle patent 1905

7 Systematic review 400 references identified by systematic review Total Literature split by topic

8 The Metals Lithium ion batteries Permanent magnet motors Source: General Motors / General Electric Why these metals/ technologies Used in all types of low carbon vehicles High score in criticality assessments

9 How we assess availability Examine literature Breakdown to root variables Expose range of assumptions for each Both supply and demand Present implications of ranges

10 Demand side factors

11 The Future EV Market Several varying scenarios Assumed IEA Blue Map 160m vehicle sales in 2050

12 Material Requirements Batteries: kg/kwh Nominal Voltage (V) Specific capacity (Ah/g) Lithium wt% Practical factors Not all Li in anode/cathode can be made available Electrical resistance Over-specification up to 2x more Li Estimates 50g 560g

13 Material Requirements Motors: kg/vehicle Weight of magnets (kg) Neodymium wt% Generators: kg/mw Weight of magnets (kg/mw) Neodymium wt%

14 The Demand Range Variable Low material intensity High material intensity Battery Size (kwh) PHEV 9 16 Battery Size (kwh) BEV 9 35 Intensity (g Li/kWh) BLUE Map market Annual sales (million units/yr) 25 PHEV + 9 BEV Market share of Li-ion batteries 100% 100% Range of demand (kilotonnes Li/yr) Li production: 34 kt Annual sales (million units/yr) 2050 BLUE Map market 62 PHEV + 47 BEV Market share of Li-ion batteries 100% 100% Range of demand (kilotonnes Li/yr) Nd production: ~18.7 kt Variable Low material intensity High material intensity PM weight (kg/vehicle) PM weight (kg/mw) Nd content (wt%) 21.8% 32.0% Reduction due to manufacturing improvements 30% N/A 2050 BLUE Map market EV annual sales (million units/yr) 157 Annual installed capacity (GW/yr) Market share of PM motors 50% Market share of direct drive turbines 32.3% Range of demand - EV (kilotonnes Nd 2 O 3 /yr) Range of demand - Wind (kilotonnes Nd 2 O 3 /yr)

15 Supply side factors

16 Supply issues Abundance ~10 ppm Sourced from minerals and brines Chile has a large portion of reserves (58%) 2011: 34 kt Competing end-uses: ceramics and glass (29%), lubricating greases (12%) 3 rd most abundant RE Co-produced with REEs China supplies ~97% of production 2011: 18.7 kt Competing end-uses: negligible, magnets 76% (2008)

17 Lithium Resources: Dynamic and Debated i. Reserves ii. Recoverable resources iii. Broad based reserves iv. Reserve base v. In Situ resources vi. Ultimate global reserve base vii. Identified Resources

18 Recycling At present, negligible for both metals, but potential for recycling is very high in-use stocks Li-ion batteries Recycling processes exist, primarily for cobalt recovery (Li price not high enough to justify recycling) NREL: Re-use end of life batteries in utility storage applications? Neodymium magnets Small amounts of pre-consumer recyclin exist Demonstrated 18% Nd content in scrap magnets Hitachi: Recycled metal to supply 10% of needs by 2013

19 Lithium: Future Supply and Demand

20 Neodymium: Future Supply and Demand

21 EV Batteries and Magnets: Conclusions Uncertainty due to Market shares unavailable (illustrative ones often assumed) Future battery size and intensity Neodymium content measured per vehicle Potential for reduction in material requirement unclear Future demand more challenging for lithium (2900%) than neodymium (600%) Supply will increase but extent to which unclear Recycling more likely for rare earths in the short/medium-term as lithium price not high enough High uncertainty in the evidence base

22 UK Energy Research Centre +44 (0)