Electricity for Road-transport, Flexible Power Systems and Wind Power

Transcription

1 Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Nov 9, 218 Electricity for Road-transport, Flexible Power Systems and Wind Power Nielsen, Lars Henrik Publication date: 211 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): Nielsen, L. H. (Author). (211). Electricity for Road-transport, Flexible Power Systems and Wind Power. Sound/Visual production (digital) General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

2 VPPC September 211 Chicago Results from a study on: Electricity for Road-transport Flexible power systems and wind power Lars Henrik Nielsen Senior scientist SYS Risø DTU Denmark

3 Project title: Project aim: Electricity for Road Transport Flexible Power Systems and Wind Power To analyse the potential synergistic interplay that may arise between the power sector and the transport sector, if segments the road transport are based on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles, for integrating fluctuating power production, such as wind power. Partners: Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy. Technical University of Denmark (DTU) Systems Analysis Division and the IES Programme. Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Centre for Electric Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering. RAM-løse edb (expertise on optimisation models / Balmorel ) Energinet.dk, Planning & Scenarios and Analysis & Methods (Danish TSO) Danish Energy Association (Includes Danish DSOs) Main sponsor: EUDP (Danish Energy Development and Demonstration Programme) Project duration: 3.5 years 2

4 Content: Touch upon EV technology development assumptions (Segment:Passenger cars and delivery vans < 3.5 ton ) Scenarios set up for Denmark (population of about 5.5 mio.) (via EPRI medium scenario assumptions from 27 for market penetration. Mainly focus on PHEVs. ) Power Distribution system aspects (DSO) Power Transmission system issues (TSO) Overall (north European) power system: Future development with EVs.. Results via the power system optimisation models (including transport modules) Balmorel (market, system operation and development (investments)) and Wilmar (spot and intraday markets, system operation, stochastic production) 3 21-aug-28

5 Vehicle energy consumption: kwh/km ICEV fuel consumption: HEV fuel consumption: Specific energy consumption for fleet average ICEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Reference Specific energy consumption for fleet average HEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Reference Energy consumption per vehicle km. [kwh/km] Energy consumption per vehicle km. [kwh/km] PHEV electricity and fuel consumption: Specific energy consumption for fleet average PHEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative BEV electricity consumption: Specific energy consumption for fleet average BEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative PHEV in BEV mode (El.) PHEV in HEV mode (Gas) Energy consumption per vehicle km. [kwh/km] Energy consumption per vehicle km. [kwh/km] Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

6 Electric Vehicle: size and range per charge PHEV & BEV: Range [km/charge] PHEV & BEV: size [kwh/pack] Range per charge for fleet average: BEV and PHEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative storage capacity in kwh/vehicle: BEV and PHEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative BEV PHEV in BEV-mode BEV PHEV Range on fully charged battery. [km/charge] pack storage capacity. [kwh/vehicle pack] 5 13-aug-28

7 Vehicle specific CO 2 emission: g CO 2 /km CO 2 Case I : Marginal el-production in DK (coal) Source: DEA (21) ICEV CO 2 emission: HEV CO 2 emission: Specific CO2 emission from fleet average ICEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Reference Specific CO2 emission from fleet average HEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Reference CO2 emission per km. [g CO2/km] PHEV CO 2 emission: CO 2 Case I CO2 emission per km. [g CO2/km] BEV CO 2 emission: CO 2 Case I Specific CO2 emission from fleet average PHEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative Specific CO2 emission from fleet average BEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative Risø CO2 DTU, emission Technical per km (Ave. University 16 y forward). of Denmark [g CO2/km] Specific CO2- emission Combined PHEV in BEV mode (El.) PHEV in HEV mode (Gas) CO2 emission Præsentationens per km (Ave. 16 y forward). titel 13-aug-28 [g CO2/km]

8 Vehicle specific CO 2 emission: g CO 2 /km CO 2 Case III : Average power system CO 2 -characteristics. And linear phasing out to zero of all fossil fuels by 25. (Stated Danish aim, October 21.) ICEV CO 2 emission: HEV CO 2 emission: Specific CO2 emission from fleet average ICEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Reference Specific CO2 emission from fleet average HEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Reference CO2 emission per km. [g CO2/km] CO2 emission per km. [g CO2/km] PHEV CO 2 emission: CO 2 Case III Specific CO2 emission from fleet average PHEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative BEV CO 2 emission: CO 2 Case III Specific CO2 emission from fleet average BEV Passenger cars and delivery vans <3.5t. Alternative Specific CO2- emission Combined PHEV in BEV mode (El.) PHEV in HEV mode (Gas) CO2 emission per km (Ave. 16 y forward). [g CO2/km] CO2 emission per km (Ave. 16 y forward). [g CO2/km] Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

9 Energy price developments assumed for fuel (gasoline/diesel) and electricity. Fuel-Cost I, II and II I El-Cost I, II and III Fuel price developments assumed. $/ GJ delivered Region: Denmark Electricity price developments assumed. $/ MWh el delivered Region: Denmark 5 2 Fuel price $/GJ FuelCost II FuelCost I FuelCost III Electricity price $/MWhel ElCost II ElCost I ElCost III aug-28

10 Vehicle cost of ownership: $/year EV battery cost: USDOE July 21 Scenario ICEV: HEV: Socio-economic cost of ownership: ICEV Reference Socio-economic cost of ownership: HEV Alternative Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Year of vehicle purchase TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Year of vehicle purchase TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel PHEV: BatCost I, COWI (27) & IEA (29) BEV: BatCost I, COWI (27) & IEA (29) Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Socio-economic cost of ownership: PHEV Alternative cost data: BATCost I TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel Year of vehicle purchase Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Socio-economic cost of ownership: BEV Alternative cost data: BATCost I Year of vehicle purchase 13-aug-28 TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel

11 Vehicle cost of ownership: $/year EV battery cost: USDOE July 21 Scenario ICEV: HEV: Socio-economic cost of ownership: ICEV Reference Socio-economic cost of ownership: HEV Alternative Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Year of vehicle purchase TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Year of vehicle purchase TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel PHEV: BatCost II, US DOE 21 scenario Socio-economic cost of ownership: PHEV Alternative cost data: BATCost II 6 Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel Year of vehicle purchase BEV: BatCost II, US DOE 21 Scenario Socio-economic cost of ownership (Vehicle lifetime annuity) $/year Socio-economic cost of ownership: BEV Alternative cost data: BATCost II Year of vehicle purchase 13-aug-28 TOTAL excl. Maintenance Operation: el Operation: gas/diesel

12 Relative cost of ownership: ($/year)/($/year) BEV, PHEV, HEV / ICEV BatCost I : DK DEA 21 scenario BatCost II: US DOE 21 Scenario Relative Cost of Ownership: HEV, PHEV and BEV relative to conventional ICEV Relative cost of ownership cost data: BATCost I HEV/ICEV PHEV/ICEV BEV/ICEV Relative Cost of Ownership: HEV, PHEV and BEV relative to conventional ICEV Relative cost of ownership Assumed: BATCost II, FuelCost I & ElCost I HEV/ICEV PHEV/ICEV BEV/ICEV Year of vehicle purchase Year of vehicle purchase aug-28

13 Conclusion: Individual EVs Energy & CO 2 emission Energy: Electricity substitutes gasoline/diesel via the EV. EV drive trains have potential for being very energy efficient. 3 kwh electricity may sustain about 2. km average vehicle driving. Via EVs segments of the transport sector can diversify its energy resource base and reduce dependency on oil based fuels. CO 2 emission: EV CO 2 emission relates to the power supply system charging the vehicles. The EV footprint of the individual vehicle change in accordance with the power supply. According to the Danish reference development for the marginal power supply EVs bring almost insignificant CO 2 reduction (due to coal dominated marginal power production). However, assuming linear descend to zero CO 2 emission in 25 for the power supply substantial CO 2 reduction is achieved via EVs substituting ICEVs. Ultimately EVs may provide zero CO 2 emission road transport. The individual ICEV of today may emit about 2-3 ton CO 2 /year. This equals max achievable EV CO 2 reduction. Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

14 Conclusion: Individual EVs Economy: Cost and lifetime of EV batteries much determine the EV economy. Based on (marginal and partial) socio-economic costs of ownership. In reference battery cost development: PHEVs may get break-even with the ICEV beyond year 22. (COWI (27) & IEA (29)) In alternative battery cost development: PHEVs may get break-even with the ICEV year 215. (DOE, The Recovery Act: Transforming America s Transportation Sector, Batteries and Electric Vehicles, July 14, 21.) CO 2 emission allowance costs for 2-3 ton CO 2 are small put relative to costs of vehicle ownership. May not constitute incentive for vehicle purchase. 13 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

15 Danish fleet: Vehicle/fleet renewal Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t Development assumed for Passenger Cars + LCV<3.5t. 3,5, Stock Number of vehicles 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, New since 25 New since 21 New since 215 New since 22 New since 225 Year 14 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

16 Danish fleet: PHEV Scenario: Market share & fleet development Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t (# PHEVs) PHEV Market share PHEV: Fleet development Plug-in HEV: Passenger cars and LCVs Market share and fleet development assumed Plug-in HEV fleet split on age groups Passenger cars and LDV < 3,5 ton % Year % PHEVs entering the fleet of passenger cars and LDVs % PHEV in the fleet of passenger cars and LDVs Number of vehicles 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Year Total fleet 15 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

17 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV): % of annual driving on electricity in DK? % of the annual driving based on electricity Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Fraction of annual driving using electricity when battery capacity corresponds to x km / charge Passenger cars + LCV < 3.5t Capacity of PHEV battery: km / fully charget battery Source: Estimated (Weibull) distribution based on data from DTU Transport: Transport Vane Undersøgelse: Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

18 Danish fleet: PHEV Scenario: Energy substitution Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t (TWh/year (fuel or el.)) TWh/year (gasoline or electricity) PHEV alternative: Electricity and Fuel use increase ICEV reference substituted: Fuel (gasoline & diesel) substituted Year Alt. PHEV: Electricity+ Fuel Alt. PHEV: Electricity Ref. ICEV: Fuel (gasoline & diesel) Net difference Gasoline only 17 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

19 Danish fleet: PHEV Scenario: CO 2 emission Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t (1 ton CO 2 /year) CO 2 Case I : Marginal (coal based) power supply (DK DEA 21) 3 2 PHEV alternative: CO2 emission via electricity and gasoline/diesel Alt. PHEV: Electricity+ Fuel 1 ton CO2 / year Alt. PHEV: Electricity Ref. ICEV: Fuel (gasoline & diesel) -2-3 ICEV reference: CO2 substituted via gasoline/diesel Year Differens: PHEV - ICEV 18 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

20 Danish fleet: PHEV Scenario: CO 2 emission Segment: Passenger Cars + LDV < 3.5t CO 2 Case III : (1 ton CO 2 /year) Average power system CO 2 -characteristics. And linear phasing out to zero of all fossil fuels by PHEV alternative: CO2 emission via electricity and gasoline/diesel Alt. PHEV: Electricity+ Fuel 1 ton CO2 / year Alt. PHEV: Electricity Ref. ICEV: Fuel (gasoline & diesel) -2-3 ICEV reference: CO2 substituted via gasoline/diesel Year Differens: PHEV - ICEV 19 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

21 Danish fleet: PHEV Scenario: Socio-economic costs of ownership (marginal & partial analysis) (Mio.$ /year) cost development: Important for BEVs, less for PHEVs BatCost I : Reference BatCost II : US DOE PHEV alternative introduced PHEV: Total costs 4 3 PHEV alternative introduced PHEV: Total costs 2 PHEV: Fuel & El 2 PHEV: Fuel & El Mio. $ / year ICEV-PHEV: Total cost difference ICEV: Fuel (gasoline & diesel) Mio. $ / year ICEV-PHEV: Total cost difference ICEV: Fuel (gasoline & diesel) -3-4 ICEV reference substituted Year ICEV: Total costs -3-4 ICEV reference substituted Year ICEV: Total costs 2 Præsentationens titel 13-aug-28

22 Socio-economic PHEV and BEV scenarios: Limitations and assumptions made Issues NOT taken into account: Infrastructure costs Insurance costs Power system flexibility gains (power system regulation capabilities, postpone investments in production/grids etc.) Externalities NOT taken into account: Reduced local pollution and reduced noise Opportunities for industry and future employment ( first mover effects) Oil substitution (reduced dependency on oil) EVs effect on hedging for increasing oil prices (and rising transport costs). System robustness and flexibility. Security of energy supply (diversified transport energy basis). Most externalities NOT taken into account tend to act in favor of the EV Note, however, infrastructure costs for EVs relative to the ICEVs are not addressed in the present analysis aug-28

23 Thank you for your attention VPPC September 211 Chicago Lars Henrik Nielsen SYS, Risø DTU Danish Technical University