Future Trends of the Low Carbon Vehicle Industry Luke Redfern Commercial Partnerships Manager, Cenex

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1 Future Trends of the Low Carbon Vehicle Industry Luke Redfern Commercial Partnerships Manager, Cenex

2 Who are Cenex? Watch our 10 year video here

3 Introduction to Cenex Independent not for profit consultancy: UK-leading capability in de-risking the deployment of low carbon vehicles with expertise in understanding EV and PHEV use Particular focus on the effects of operational duty cycles on vehicle and battery durability, and the associated usage of recharging infrastructure. Running projects and programmes focused on accelerating the deployment of low carbon vehicles Fleet carbon reduction strategic consultancy Fleet deployment trials Delivering the UKs largest annual B2B Low Carbon Vehicle event (LCV)

4 Our portfolio 10 Years of Accelerating the Shift To The Low Carbon Economy

5 The Top 10 Future Changes for Low Carbon Vehicles

6 1. Technology Road Maps

7 2. All Vehicles Are Getting Lower Carbon

8 3. Powertrain Trends Decline in diesel? Petrol making a come back All Major OEMs have a downsizing strategy Ford EcoBoost Vauxhall Ecotec direct injection turbo GM/PSA small gasoline engine Citroen EB BlueTech Fastest growing segment is 3 Cyl: 4% (2010) to 18% (2020) Four Cyl share to fall; remain at 75% by 2020? Large V engines to decline Electrification/ boosting will be used to maintain sporty performance Source: LMC Automotive European Engine & Transmission Forecast, 2013

9 Share European Car Market (%) Future Trends of the Low Carbon Industry 4. Electrification Hybrids rule (so far) European Cars: Electrification by Type Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug in Full Electric Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast, 2013 Developments continue, but on focussed on fewer projects

10 Share of Hybrid/EV Market Future Trends of the Low Carbon Industry 4. Electrification Market moving towards a broader mix of technologies Plug-in sector will dominate Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast, 2013

11 5. Fuel Type, Cost and Carbon Fuel Fuel price (p/unit) Unit Small (pence per mile) Medium (pence per mile) Large (pence per mile) Small (kg CO2 per mile*) Medium (kg CO2 per mile*) Large (kg CO2 per mile*) Petrol Litre Diesel Litre LPG 69.8 Litre Electric KWh

12 6. Financial Incentives and Total Cost Electric Vehicle Allied Peugeot EV-Boxer Nissan env200 Savings Diesel Vehicle Ford Transit VW Caddy 1.6 cdi Trendline Ford Transit VW Caddy 1.6 cdi Trendline WLC (Cenex) -44% -88% 56% 43% WLC (Manufacturer) -50% -89% 55% 43% Lifetime WTW CO2 emissions (Cenex) 15% 16% 65% 66% Lifetime WTW CO2 emissions (Manufacturer) 10% 25% 63% 69%

13 7. Recharging Infrastructure Range anxiety is no longer a problem! Total UK charging posts c2, charge points in Plugged in Midlands Including 28 rapid chargers It s not all about Electric Gas infrastructure development ongoing for HGVs (Low Carbon Truck Trial) Hydrogen storage research across Europe Liquid Air

14 8. Air Quality Smog 2014

15 9. Vehicle to Grid Constraints Electric vehicles (EV) projected to contribute up to 60% of total new car sales by By 2035 EV charging could represent up to a 20GW increase in peak demand. Opportunities Assuming ~16.2kWh per vehicle is available for grid support, this represents ~11.3GWh energy storage capacity by But what does this mean and how does it work?

16 9. Vehicle to Grid

17 10. Future Transport

18 The way forward Technology Road Maps Vehicles are Lower Carbon Electrification Powertrain Trends Fuel Type, Cost and Carbon Recharging Infrastructure Financial Incentives & Total Cost Air Quality Vehicle To Grid Future Transport But ultimately, it s down to the consumer!

19 Thank you for listening Luke Redfern Commercial Partnerships Manager

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