Global Outlook & EMSA - Electric Motor Systems Annex

Transcription

1 Global Outlook & EMSA - Electric Motor Systems Annex Motor Summit 2018 International Zurich, 15 November 2018 Maarten van Werkhoven TPA advisors

2 CO 2 emissions: shift towards growth in 2017 Photograph: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

3 Future is electrifying China United States India European Union Southeast Asia Middle East Africa Demand Industrial electric motor systems account for one-third of the increase in power demand. Electricity makes inroads in supplying heat and mobility, alongside growth in its traditional domains. Projects the global electric car fleet up to 280 million by 2040, from 2 million today. Source: IEA, Energy Efficiency 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris 3

4 Renewables

5 Energy Efficiency - benefits Greenhouse gas emissions in New Policies and Efficient World Scenario, Historic Baseline Efficient World scenario Energy Efficiency alone can result in a peak before 2020 and fall to levels 12% lower than today by Global GDP could double between now and 2040 for only a marginal increase in energy demand. Source: IEA, Energy Efficiency 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris 5

6 Energy Efficiency - status We missed opportunities to improve Energy Efficiency 16% of industry electricity use $20 billion by top 10 efficient refrigerators Policies are not delivering full potential gains Leads to locking in in-efficiencies Source: IEA, Energy Efficiency 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris 6

7 Electric Motors Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for motors are a common policy tool 7

8 Electric Motors Majority of motors are still at low efficiency: IE0 & IE1 Gains possible with increase of strength & scope, and coverage Electric motors energy use covered 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Global Actual coverage Coverage potential Source: IEA, Energy Efficiency 2018, OECD/IEA, Paris 8

9 Motor Driven Unit MEPS for MDUs combine component efficiencies (of 4 into 1) Can deliver substantial extra energy savings 9

10 Motor Driven Units MEPS - Progress is slow Notes: Darker color = more advanced MEPS with a metric at MDU level MEPS = Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards Source: Policy Guidelines for Motor Driven Units, EMSA, Nov 2018 Motor Summit 2018 International 10

11 Motor Driven Units MEPS - Benefits are large, example EU Pumps From product to MDU: savings x10: from 3.6 TWh/a to TWh/a By establishing MEPS for complete MDUs (instead of component level), differentiating between constant and variable load, extending the product coverage and increasing the stringency of MEPS levels Electricity use and estimated savings for EU pumps at product and MDU level Source: Policy Guidelines for Motor Driven Units, EMSA, Nov 2018 Motor Summit 2018 International 11

12 Motor Driven Units MEPS Added complexity for MEPS For policy makers check every component (or only the entire MDU) different components meet at the end-user accept physical tests only (or AEDM*: calculation) For standard makers within IEC, ISO: several TCs: joint working groups take up collaboration IEC & ISO: different tradition, culture, procedures Global harmonization will be beneficial for all stakeholders *) AEDM Alternative Efficiency Determination Method 12

13 EMSA Electric Motor Systems Annex Technology Collaboration Programme Annex 15 Nov 2018 Motor Summit 2018 International 13

14 EMSA At a glance Tasks Technical & policy platform for governments Members collaborate on policies stimulating the uptake of efficient motor systems Use synergies & avoid duplications with other initiatives International Standards Testing new technologies Digitalization/New Technologies Motor Systems Tool Outreach Download: 15 Nov 2018 Motor Summit 2018 International 14

15 Example 1: Policy Guidelines for Motor Driven Units International alignment of technical standards & regulations Pumps, fans, compressors China, EU, USA 15

16 Example 2: Coordinate between IEC & ISO System Considerations for Electric Motor Driven Units IEC electrical mechanical ISO SUPPLY DEMAND 16

17 Example 3: EMSA & IEC Round Robin for converter losses Phase 1: IEC (edition 1), 2017 Danish Technological Institute, DK CalTest AU Advanced Energy, US Review: Converter losses Efficiency classes Testing method BFH CH Phase : 4 labs Phase : 7 labs (+CA, CN, DE, JP) 17

18 4. Digitalization and Motor Systems Technologies, potential savings Research to identify technologies, potential savings and policy measures Technologies & concepts for near future Smart sensors, decision support + data analytics Condition based monitoring, Servitization Advanced industrial process control Evolution towards autonomous closed-loop control. Energy management 2.0 Digital twins and Artificial Intelligence Digital factory, Digital research 15 Nov 2018 Motor Summit 2018 International

19 5. EMSA Motor Systems Tool Independent software tool Calculates efficiency of motor system: motor controls transmission application load characteristics Download: 19

20 6. Outreach - Newsletter 5'500 people in 85 countries English, Spanish, Chinese, Japanese 20

21 Key messages 1. Urgency for reduction of CO 2 emission & energy consumption 2. Energy efficiency can decrease CO 2 emission & energy consumption 3. Ambitious policies stimulate markets and deliver savings 4. Focus needed on increase of strength, of scope and of coverage (globally) of policies 5. Focus on transition from component to Motor Driven Unit, to system 6. Need for joint ambitious action by government, manufacturers and other stakeholders 21

22 Thank you Maarten van Werkhoven Electric Motor Systems Annex EMSA TPA advisors, The Netherlands Rita Werle Electric Motor Systems Annex EMSA Impact Energy, Switzerland 15 Nov 2018 Motor Summit 2018 International