CERI Commodity Report Crude Oil

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CERI Commodity Report Crude Oil October 2012 Tight and Shale Oil Plays in the WCSB Whenever shale oil is mentioned, most think of the US shale oil plays and their unprecedented production growth in

1 When it comes to shale and tight oil formations in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), they are spoken about less frequently.

The National Energy Board (NEB) notes tight oil production in Canada started in the Saskatchewan and Manitoba Bakken play in 2005 but by 2010 Alberta led all provinces because of activity in the

1 CERI Commodity Report Crude Oil October 2012 Tight and Shale Oil Plays in the WCSB Whenever shale oil is mentioned, most think of the US shale oil plays and their unprecedented production growth in the last five years. Some energy agencies are predicting future US oil supply will outstrip oil production of Saudi Arabia and the US will become energyindependent. 1 When it comes to shale and tight oil formations in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB), they are spoken about less frequently. It is no secret that low natural gas prices are driving producers away from pure gas plays in the WCSB towards the more lucrative oil and liquids plays, and more specifically, to tight oil. The National Energy Board (NEB) notes tight oil production in Canada started in the Saskatchewan and Manitoba Bakken play in 2005 but by 2010 Alberta led all provinces because of activity in the formations such as Cardium (see Figure 1). The type of oil drilling in Western Canada has also changed. In 2005 about 28 percent of oil-directed wells were horizontal. By early 2011, this had increased to close to 80 percent; over the same time period horizontal rigs targeting tight oil went up from 10 rigs to 140. Figure 1: Oil Production by Play Source: NEB. The NEB cautions it is still too early to confidently estimate the ultimate impact of exploiting tight and shale oil plays in western Canada. 2 Tight and shale oil have the potential to add significant light crude oil production that had not been anticipated. While this article will cover five key plays where activity is starting to pick up, there is increasing interest in other plays that could emerge as important sources of new exploration and production. The new oil supply from these and other plays will impact transportation requirements to move WCSB oil production to market. CERI will continue to monitor WCSB tight oil developments along with other emerging trends. The Alberta Bakken When the Bakken is mentioned, most think of southeastern Saskatchewan and North Dakota in the US. But straddling the international border in southern Alberta, the Alberta Bakken may be just as big. CERI Commodity Report Crude Oil Editor-in-Chief: Dinara Millington (dmillington@ceri.ca) About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. We strive to build bridges between scholarship and policy, combining the insights of scientific research, economic analysis, and practical experience. In doing so, we broaden the knowledge of young researchers in areas related to energy, the economy, and the environment while honing their expertise in a range of analytical techniques. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at Geologically similar to its eastern counterpart, it's a Devonian shale light oil play that extends from southern Alberta into Montana, measuring over 160 kilometres north to south and around 50 kilometres across. 3 Relevant Independent Objective

Page 2 Figure 2: Bakken Stratigraphy Figure 3: Bakken, Three Forks, and Torquay Tight Oil Production Source: NEB One of the companies currently exploring this play is DeeThree Exploration Ltd.

In 2011, analysts estimated drilling in the Alberta Bakken would be targeting 35-42 degree API oil at depths ranging from 1,500 to 2,400 metres.

2 Page 2 Figure 2: Bakken Stratigraphy Figure 3: Bakken, Three Forks, and Torquay Tight Oil Production Source: NEB One of the companies currently exploring this play is DeeThree Exploration Ltd. The company started in this play in early 2011 and wasn t too successful until it moved its search to its eastern block, where a much thicker part of upper Bakken was discovered to be full of oil. In 2011, analysts estimated drilling in the Alberta Bakken would be targeting degree API oil at depths ranging from 1,500 to 2,400 metres. But DeeThree's wells have been shallower at around 1,250 metres and its discovered oil is closer to 30 degree API, with very low gas-to-oil ratios (GORs). Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of Energy and Resources While widespread, the Bakken formation is not prospective across the entire formation as reservoir conditions vary widely. Bakken reservoirs in Alberta are generally deep, high pressure and oil-prolific. Wood Mackenzie, Ltd., an energy consulting firm, estimated the resource potential of the Alberta Bakken at 2.6 billion barrels in late As Figure 3 shows, the production out of Bakken and related units had increased substantially, going up to almost 80 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) in Within the Bakken play, the new supply indicates production levels of above 60 kbpd. Montney Oil Montney too has been mentioned for the past halfdecade or so, especially when it comes to shale gas in British Columbia. But its oil-prone side, primarily in western Alberta, is gaining momentum. The Triassic Montney and Doig Formations were deposited in western Alberta and northeast British Columbia approximately 240 million years ago (see Figure 4). The Triassic Montney formation consists generally of shallowwater sands in the east and deep-water muds to the west. They've been exploited for decades, but with the introduction of horizontal multistage fracking, the deepwater mudstones became attractive for shale gas. Now, more explorers are moving into the less mature mudstones seeking oil.

Page 3 Figure 4: Montney Deposits Alberta Viking The Viking Formation is understood to be a coastal system that was deposited during the Lower Cretaceous (about 100 million years ago) in a similar

The sea level periodically fell and caused deposition of shoreline sands on what was the sea floor, creating what would become conventional sandstone oil reservoirs (Figure 6).

The exploration and development for tight oil in the Montney/Doig play had picked up in 2009 when production rose sharply from under 1 kbpd in 2009 to 6 kbpd in 2011 (see Figure 5).

3 Page 3 Figure 4: Montney Deposits Alberta Viking The Viking Formation is understood to be a coastal system that was deposited during the Lower Cretaceous (about 100 million years ago) in a similar manner to the Cardium Formation. The sea level periodically fell and caused deposition of shoreline sands on what was the sea floor, creating what would become conventional sandstone oil reservoirs (Figure 6). Figure 6: Schematic of Viking Formation Stratigraphy Source: NEB. The exploration and development for tight oil in the Montney/Doig play had picked up in 2009 when production rose sharply from under 1 kbpd in 2009 to 6 kbpd in 2011 (see Figure 5). Some companies got in early. One company, Trilogy Energy Corp., claims they have acquired the best part of the pool. Trilogy is planning on spending about $125 million in the Montney this year. Reservoir depth is about 1,800 metres and Trilogy's wells go out about 1,600 metres on the horizontal with around 22 fracs each. Open Range Energy Corp., recently acquired by Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., has been getting good rates in the Montney oil play as well. The company has been drilling its wells to around 2,400 metres with horizontal legs up to 1,400 metres, with 17 fracs on its last well. Figure 5: Montney/Doig Tight Oil Production Source: NEB. Like the Cardium, muddy sandstones of the sea floor surrounding existing oil pools are new targets. The Viking is shallower in many places, generally less than 800 metres in the Dodsland and Redwater areas, which means drilling costs can be reduced, but can also present challenges to horizontal drilling. So far, companies have reported about 58 million barrels of proved and probable reserves in the Viking. 5 In Alberta, the Viking stretches from the Alberta- Saskatchewan border south of Lloydminster, around Provost, roughly northwest to Redwater. From central Alberta, it grows thinner and more shale-y, to almost entirely silty shale around Redwater. Activity is concentrated in three main regions: greater Dodsland in west-central Saskatchewan, and Halkirk-Provost and Redwater in Alberta. According to the NEB, total Viking production rose to 16 kbpd mid-2011, of which Alberta Viking oil production was just under 6 kbpd. Source: NEB.

Page 4 Figure 7: Viking Tight Oil Production reefs surrounding it. It s what started the development of Alberta s oil and gas industry in 1947. Figure 8: Duvernay Shale Deposits Source: NEB.

4 Page 4 Figure 7: Viking Tight Oil Production reefs surrounding it. It s what started the development of Alberta s oil and gas industry in Figure 8: Duvernay Shale Deposits Source: NEB. Several companies are exploring this area. In the Halkirk- Provost region Crescent Point Energy Corp., Charger Energy Corp., Muirfield Resources Ltd., and Equal Energy Ltd. are dominating the scene. The leading producers at Redwater are WestFire Energy Ltd., Baytex Energy Corp., Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd., and Husky Energy Inc. Wells in the play are mostly shallow, averaging between 700 and 900 metres in vertical depth. And horizontal sections are relatively shallow, between 600 and 800 metres long, although there have been a few long laterals reaching 1,200-1,400 metres. Because the Viking is shallow, short horizontals are more common in order to keep costs low. The Halkirk-Provost region sees a mix of both. Initial production rates range from 70 to 100 barrels per day at Redwater, to over barrels per day on some of the Halkirk-Provost properties. Another indication of increased activity in the area are the mergers and acquisitions among Viking-focused players, including deals involving Whitecap Resources Inc. and Compass Petroleum Ltd.; Crescent Point Energy Corp. and Cutpick Energy Inc.; and the pending acquisition of WestFire Energy Ltd. by Guide Exploration Ltd. Duvernay Shale Liquids The Duvernay and Muskwa Shales make up the same formation, but are named differently in different areas. The shale is called the Duvernay in central Alberta and called the Muskwa in northwest Alberta and northeast British Columbia. The shale was deposited in marine basins between tall reefs and a large, shallow water carbonate platform that grew in the mid-devonian (Figure 8). The Duvernay has long been known as the organic-rich source rock for the oil and gas in the Leduc Source: NEB. The Muskwa Shale is already being exploited for natural gas in the Horn River Basin of northeast British Columbia as shale gas. In Alberta, bituminous (organic-rich) shales of the Duvernay and Muskwa are gaining interest, not just for shale gas, but also for oil. In particular, it appears that, in many areas toward the east and southeast the formation is oilier, or at least the gas is wet. Costs for Duvernay wells are on the high end compared with some other shale plays. Trilogy Energy Corp. had experienced an average well cost somewhere between $11 and $12 million ($6 million for the drill and $5-$6 million for the completion). Trilogy has budgeted $40 million for Duvernay in 2012 in hopes to develop commercial production while trying to control costs. Lower Amaranth Formation (Manitoba) Often termed the Manitoba Spearfish, this play is actually the Lower Amaranth formation in the southwestern corner of Manitoba. Across the US border in North Dakota, it is called the Spearfish. The Lower Amaranth in Manitoba is a section of sandstone and siltstone deposited on top of a widespread erosional surface that formed during worldwide low sea levels at the beginning of the Triassic (see Figure 9). Oil migrated into the Spearfish from underlying oil-rich formations where they overlap at the erosional surface.

$Page 5 Figure 9: Schematic of Lower Amaranth (Spearfish) Stratigraphy Source: NEB. Until the advent of horizontal multistage fracking, the play was only marginally economic.$ With approximately 250 wells, the production in Lower Amaranth reached 14 kbpd in mid-2011 (Figure 10). The Legacy Oil & Gas Inc.

With approximately 250 wells, the production in Lower Amaranth reached 14 kbpd in mid-2011 (Figure 10). The Legacy Oil & Gas Inc.

5 Page 5 Figure 9: Schematic of Lower Amaranth (Spearfish) Stratigraphy Source: NEB. Until the advent of horizontal multistage fracking, the play was only marginally economic. Now producers like its shallow, low-permeability sandstone, which yields sweet, light oil. It is expected to account for about 30 percent of Manitoba's oil production this year. With approximately 250 wells, the production in Lower Amaranth reached 14 kbpd in mid-2011 (Figure 10). The Legacy Oil & Gas Inc. is active in the Spearfish on both sides of the border and drilled its first well in early Another company, EOG Resources Inc., had been highly successful in 2008 initial production rates on their wells were reported at barrels per day. Endnotes 1 IEA, Medium-term Oil Market Report NEB, Tight Oil Developments in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Energy Briefing Note. December An estimate because it's still being delineated. 4 Oilweek, The Hot, Hot West. October NEB, Tight Oil Developments in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Energy Briefing Note. December Figure 10: Lower Amaranth Tight Oil Production Source: NEB.

6 Page 6 US$/bbl Differential WTI Brent Spot Crude Prices US$/bbl US$/bbl WTI - Edmonton Light Price Differentials Differential WTI Edmonton Light Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Spot Prices WTI Brent Edm.Light H.Hardisty Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date November 14, SOURCE: EIA. SOURCE: EIA. US$/bbl WTI - Hardisty Heavy Price Differentials Differential WTI Hardisty Heavy US$/bbl NYMEX Crude Forward Curve 12 months Sep Oct Nov Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct SOURCE: NRCan, EIA. SOURCE: EIA, CERI.

7 SOURCE: EIA, CERI. SOURCE: NRCan. Page 7 NYMEX Petroleum Products CDN/US$ Exchange Rate US$/gal 4.00 CDN/US$ RBOB Gasoline Heating Oil Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 NYMEX Prices Unleaded Gasoline Heating Oil Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date November 14, Oil Demand Global in Selected Oil Demand Countries US Products Demand October October 2012 Y-on-Y change MMbpd % % 25% % 47% 46% 45% 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Total Gasoline Jet Fuel Distillate Residual Propane Other OECD Demand non-oecd Demand non-oecd Share of Global Demand SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Relevant Independent Objective

8 SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report, CERI. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Page 8 Global Oil Supply MMbpd Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 non-opec Supply OPEC Supply non-opec Share of Global Supply Canadian Oil Production by product Mbpd 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 AB L/M/H AB Bitumen SK Other NGLs Synthetic 61.0% 60.5% 60.0% 59.5% 59.0% 58.5% 58.0% 57.5% 57.0% Mbpd 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Mbpd 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, US Oil Production by region 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 Alaska California Texas Federal GOM Other Lower 48 NGLs Other OECD Commercial Stocks by region Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific

9 Page 9 MMb US Commercial Stocks September 28 - October 26, 2012 Crude Gasoline Distillate Products Total MMb Canadian Stocks on Land 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 SOURCE: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Relevant Independent Objective

10 Page 10 World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd) Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 World Demand OECD non-oecd World Supply Non-OPEC OPEC NGLs OPEC Crude Supply - Demand OECD Stocks (MMbbls) Days Cover OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd) Sustainable Production Over (+)/Under (-) Target Capacity Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Saudi Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Nigeria Libya Algeria Ecuador OPEC Iraq Total OPEC WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel) Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 High Price Case Reference Case Low Price Case

11 Page 11 Data Appendix Relevant Independent Objective

12 Page 12 A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel) NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.1% -1.5% -7.9% -7.7% Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.0% 4.3% 10.0% 10.5% A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices ( US per gallon) NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.7% -4.6% -4.7% -8.7% -4.4% -4.6% -5.8% -6.3% Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.5% 2.2% 4.7% 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 6.1% 5.1% Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average contract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

13 Page 13 A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel) Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon. Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals 1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.1% -3.3% -3.6% -7.0% -7.8% -5.8% -6.4% -3.0% -2.2% -4.6% -6.7% -1.7% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.1% 4.6% 4.5% 2.5% 1.7% 3.6% 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 7.9% 2.1% 0.1% Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel) United States Canada ANS 1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Okla. Sw. Kans. Sw. Mich. So. Wyo. Sw. ELS 2 HH Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg % -2.9% -0.9% 7.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.0% 7.0% 7.7% 5.6% -8.1% -4.5% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.2% -16.2% -17.8% -9.5% -10.0% -10.3% -9.5% -9.6% -10.4% -11.3% -1.0% 2.6% Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada. Relevant Independent Objective

14 Page 14 A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. ELS 1 HH 2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.1% -1.2% -4.6% -2.9% -22.0% -19.2% -11.0% -10.8% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.1% 6.9% 7.9% 3.2% -9.1% -7.7% 13.2% 12.8% Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada. A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Spot Prices Differentials WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket 1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.0% -3.4% -0.9% -2.9% -2.1% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.6% 2.0% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

15 Page 15 A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel) NY Harbor, Barges Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes Gasoline 1 No. 2 H.O. Resid. 2 Gasoline 1 Gasoil Resid. 3 Gasoline 1 Gasoil Resid Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.1% -1.2% 16.6% 4.1% 0.3% -1.7% -2.0% 0.6% -1.0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.1% -22.4% 17.0% 8.1% 6.5% -2.6% 1.8% 7.0% -2.1% Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. High Sulfur (3.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. 3. High Sulfur (3.5%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report. A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities ( US per gallon) NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles Gasoline 1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline 1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline 1 Distill Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.8% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 4.7% 3.1% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.3% 6.3% 7.6% 3.3% 4.9% 6.7% 6.3% 4.4% Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Relevant Independent Objective

16 Page 16 B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day) OECD Non-OECD OPEC World N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total 1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total 1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total 2 Total 3 Demand Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Supply Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Balance Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-oecd supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

17 Page 17 B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day) OECD Non-OECD OPEC World N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.7% -13.3% 25.5% 3.4% 1.8% -5.8% 0.1% -1.1% 1.6% 17.0% 5.8% 2.8% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.8% -22.4% -8.3% 2.6% 2.4% -2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 9.4% 4.2% 2.4% R/P Ratio Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy. B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels) North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product 1 Total , ,431 2, , ,422 2, , ,408 2,601 3Q , ,427 2,665 4Q , ,408 2,601 1Q , ,388 2,659 2Q , ,010 1,374 2,699 3Q , ,433 2,746 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% -3.3% 2.0% 1.2% 4.7% 3.6% 11.7% 2.2% 5.2% 6.9% 0.4% 3.0% Sep , ,427 2,665 Oct , ,406 2,643 Nov , ,414 2,654 Dec , ,408 2,601 Jan , ,430 2,652 Feb , ,388 2,629 Mar , ,388 2,659 Apr , ,379 2,681 May , ,007 1,375 2,693 Jun , ,010 1,374 2,699 Jul , ,419 2,728 Aug , ,436 2,730 Sep , ,433 2,746 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% -3.3% 2.0% 1.2% 4.7% 3.6% 11.7% 2.2% 5.2% 6.9% 0.4% 3.0% Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report. Relevant Independent Objective

18 Page 18 B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day) Persian Gulf Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11 Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Venez. Nigeria Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total 1 Target Iraq Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.7% -20.7% 6.3% 8.2% -8.5% 4.1% -4.0% ##### -7.8% 1.8% 0.0% 4.2% 15.0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.2% -23.5% 6.4% 6.4% -9.9% -2.7% -3.5% 294.3% -10.9% 4.1% -4.0% 2.3% 17.5% Quotas Over/Under % -19.2% 20.3% 27.0% 0.0% 24.6% 16.8% -6.1% -4.2% 17.8% 11.6% 12.7% Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report. B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel) North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD Input Util. Margin 1 Input Util. Margin 2 Input Util. Margin 3 Input Util Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.8% % 2.4% 862.7% 5.1% % 1.3% Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Yr-on-Yr Chg. -4.1% % 2.7% -3256% 4.9% % -0.3% Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

19 Page 19 C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day) United States 1 East Mid-West Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.6% -0.6% -12.7% 10.3% 0.7% 18.6% 2.0% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.3% 0.4% -2.4% 12.4% -0.2% 16.5% 1.2% % of Total % 100.0% 1.5% 27.1% 24.9% 26.2% South-Central North-West West Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.3% -3.9% 8.3% 2.1% -4.9% -2.0% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.5% 0.3% 5.3% 5.9% -11.4% -1.2% % of Total % 27.4% 8.0% 3.9% 11.5% 15.4% Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from nonconventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. Relevant Independent Objective

20 Page 20 C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day) Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total 1 Total Total Q Q Q Q Q Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.0% -2.5% -1.1% -30.7% -1.3% 4.2% -0.6% Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.6% -5.5% -5.5% 10.7% -1.4% 12.5% 0.4% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels) Petroleum Stocks 1 Crude Oil Finished Products East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total 2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total , ,776 1, , ,794 1, , ,751 1, Q , ,808 1, Q , ,781 1, Q , ,751 1, Q , ,777 1, Q , ,808 1, Yr-on-Yr Chg % 6.8% 0.5% 4.6% -2.0% 0.0% -0.3% -7.2% -9.0% -16.5% -1.2% -10.3% Aug , ,801 1, Sep , ,781 1, Oct , ,770 1, Nov , ,772 1, Dec , ,751 1, Jan , ,771 1, Feb , ,764 1, Mar , ,777 1, Apr , ,776 1, May , ,794 1, Jun , ,808 1, Jul , ,809 1, Aug , ,801 1, Yr-on-Yr Chg % 5.9% 0.6% 2.8% -0.3% 0.0% 1.2% -10.9% -0.1% -18.8% -12.0% -11.7% Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Commodity Report Crude Oil

CERI Commodity Report Crude Oil 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Well Count CERI Commodity