Economic and Commodity Market Outlook
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1 Economic and Commodity Market Outlook August 12, 2016 By Robert Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas System
2 Soybean Price Projection Soybeans Price Estimate USDA s 2015/16 August 2016 price estimate $8.95 ($/bu) 15 crop USDA s 2016/17 August 2016 price estimate $9.10 ($/bu) 16 crop $8.35/$9.85 Change from July 12, % Change from 2015/16 on July % November 2016 current price $10.09 ($/bu) Near Term Price Outlook - Possible price weakness into the $9.00 area. Treat this market with a great deal of respect.
3 Cotton Price Projection Cotton Price Estimate USDA s 2015/16 August 2016 price estimate $0.58 (c/lb) 15 crop USDA s 2016/17 August 2016 price estimate $0.63 (c/lb) 16 crop 57.9/69.0 Change from July 12, % Change from 2015/16 on July 12, % December 2016 current price $0.69 (c/lb) Near Term Price Outlook - Potential price strength into the 4th quarter of $0.85
4 Corn Price Estimate Corn USDA s 2015/16 July 2016 price estimate $3.60 ($/bu) 15 crop USDA s 2016/17 July 2016 price estimate $3.15 ($/bu) 16 crop $2.85/$3.45 Change from June 10, % Change from 2015/16 on June % December 2016 current price $3.37 ($/bu) Near Term Price Outlook 2 possibilities Possible price bottom near Possible price bottom no lower than $3.00
5 Wheat Price Projection Wheat Price Estimate USDA s 2015/16 August 2016 price estimate USDA s 2016/17 August 2016 price estimate $4.89 ($/bu) 15 crop $3.70 ($/bu) 16 crop Change from July 12, % Change from 2015/16 on July % December 8/12/ current price $4.36 ($/BU) Near Term Price Outlook - Presently likely correctively price activity into the $4.50 to $4.75 area Followed by a likely decline to a low of $3.25 to $3.75
6 Rice Price Estimate Rice USDA s 2015/16 August 2016 price estimate $11.00 ($/cwt) 15 crop $4.95 ($/bu) USDA s 2016/17 August 2016 price estimate $10.00 ($/cwt) 16 crop $4.50 ($/bu) Monthly change from July 12, % Change from 2015/16 on July % September 2016 current price $10.20 ($/cwt) $4.59 ($/bu) Near Term Price Outlook Potential price weakness into the $9.00 cwt or $4.05 bu. area Rice needs a new demand source from current and/or new customers
7 U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Demand Estimates August 12,
8 U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres 1972/ /17 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,200 1,058,400 1,370,000 1,453,300 1,531,000 1,467,000 1,925,000 1,940,000 2,170,000 2,482,000 2,175,000 1,543,000 2,095,000 1,942,000 1,806,000 1,698,000 2,233,000 1,998,000 2,065,000 2,023,000 2,372,000 2,028,000 2,379,000 2,312,000 1,967,000 2,309,000 2,568,000 2,718,000 2,189,000 2,697,000 2,512,000 2,310,000 2,571,000 2,734,000 2,186,000 2,052,000 2,350,000 2,265,000 2,826,000 1,739,000 1,979,000 1,767,000 2,196,000 1,843,000 2,449, preliminary estimate 2,449,000 harvested acres 5 year average 1,904,800 acres 10 year average 2,120,300 acres Source: USDA 9
9 U.S. Long Grain Rice Yield 1972/ /16 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 4,682 Pounds per acre 4,139 4,375 4,376 4,576 4,240 4,405 4,159 4,002 4,449 4,295 4,168 4,584 5,168 5,358 5,241 5,345 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,391 5,426 5,587 5,882 6,213 6,260 6,451 6,630 6,479 6,727 6,980 6,522 6,743 6,486 6,691 7,291 7,464 7,407 7,218 7,460 3,000 2, preliminary estimate 7,460 pounds or bushels 2 nd largest on record ,464 or bushels 1, Source: USDA 10
10 U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/ /17 Million hundredweight estimated year average year average May, 16 June, 16 July, 16 Aug, 16 Source: USDA 12
11 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/ /17 Million hundredweight Slide estimated record May, 16 June,16 July, 16 Aug, 16 Source: USDA 13
12 120 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/ /17 Million hundredweight Slide estimate 81 Largest since May, 16 June, 16 July, 16 Aug, 16 Source: USDA 15
13 60 U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/ /17 Million hundredweight May, 16 June, 16 July, 16 Aug, estimated 36.7 Largest since 1985 Source: USDA 17
14 World Rice Supply and Demand Estimates - Slide Show No.2 August 12, 2016 By Robert Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas 18
15 World Rice Area Harvested 1987/ / Millions of Hectares estimated million hectares 2 nd largest on record / / /92 Source: USDA 1993/ / / / / / / / / / / /16 June, 16 Aug, 16 19
16 World Rice Milled Production 1987/ / Millions of Metric Tons estimated at Largest on record up 2% / / /92 Source: USDA 1993/ / / / / / / / / / / /16 June, 16 Aug, 16 22
17 World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 1987/ /17 50 Millions of Metric Tons estimated at 40.6 Below previous 3 yr average / / /92 Source: USDA 1993/ / / / / / / / / / / /16 June, 16 Aug, 16 23
18 World Rice Ending Stocks 1987/ / Millions of Metric Tons estimated at Problematic and 2% above 2015/ / / /92 Source: USDA 1993/ / / / / / / / / / / /16 June, 16 Aug, 16 25
19 World Soybean Production U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand Estimates August 12,
20 2016 Harvested Acreage 83 million Production 4.06 billion bushels
21
22 States in blue increased yield over previous yr. / # record yield Red states yield decline from previous year
23 Source: WASDE Secretary's Briefing
24
25 World Cotton Production U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Estimates August 12,
26 2016 Harvested Acreage 9.53 million
27 2016 Production 15.9 million
28
29 States in blue increased yield / # record yield Red states yield decline from previous year
30 Source: WASDE Secretary's Briefing.63 41
31 Source: WASDE Secretary's Briefing 43
32 World Corn Production U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Estimates July 12,
33 2016 Harvested Acreage 86.6 million acres Production 15.2 billion bushels
34
35 States in blue increased yield / # record yield Red states yield decline from previous year
36 Source: WASDE Secretary's Briefing 49
37 Source: WASDE Secretary's Briefing 51
38 $FAW FTSE All World Index
39 Slow Growth Global Economy All World Index May 2015 to July 2016 Bear Market normalization, raise rates, 5, reflation
40 Commodity Index
41
42 Interest Rates Historic Low Interest Rates
43 10 year U.S. Treasury Yield December 2009 to Present
44 Dow Jones Industrials Average
45 October 2011 to Present
46 Standard and Poor s 500 Composite
47 October 2011 to Present
48 EEM Emerging Markets
49 July 2015 to Present
50 Currency
51
52
53 Crude Oil
54
55 Trend Change Underway: Closing Thoughts Markets are adjusting to a period of sustained slow global growth. Intervention to manage a slow growth global economy will continue to influence market price action. Risk-on and risk-off for the foreseeable future. Additional layer of risk management protection
56 Closing Thoughts Conclusion: Event Risk: Bluford Blu Putnam, Managing Director and Chief Economist of CME Group, points out in today s global economy, managing event risks going forward will be important - For example BREXIT
57 Rough Rice Monthly Continuation, 1992-Present
58 Soybeans Monthly Continuation, 1992-Present
59 Cotton Monthly Continuation, 1992-Present
60 Corn Monthly Continuation, 1992-Present
61 Wheat Monthly Continuation, 1992-Present
62 Closing Thoughts U.S. treasuries are very likely to remain sideways given their near-term bullish move (lower yields). This market apparently has not topped.
63 Closing Thoughts Near term the dollar should be sideways and remain range bound. Remember, the Fed has real concerns about reaching and maintaining their 2-percent inflation objective in a stagnant global economic setting. To achieve this objective it would be helpful for oil prices not to resume their earlier declines and the dollar not to rise significantly, like they did on June 24 th.
64 Closing Thoughts U.S. equities should be watched carefully; let the price define strength, weakness, or simply sideways corrective activity over-time. I expect U.S. equities need additional time to consolidate before moving significantly higher. o It is interesting that global reflation has reemerged. I expect that this is going to be an ongoing exercise of risk-on and risk-off for the foreseeable future.
65 Closing Thoughts Finally, Risk Events are now with us for a number of years into the future. These events will likely exert strong influences on market participants and market volatility Expect increasingly complex price patterns.
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