An ISM Approach for the Risk Analysis of Energy Service Company (ESCO) in China

Transcription

1 Management cence and Research November 2015, Volume 4, Issue 3, PP An IM Approach for the Rsk Analyss of Energy ervce Company (ECO) n Chna Heru Cu, Fangxn Lu North Chna Electrc Power Unversty, , Chna Emal: @qq.com Abstract Energy Performance Contractng (EPC) s an envronmental protecton mechansm whch our country s vgorously promotng. It s a market-orented mechansm for promotng energy effcency. But ts carrer----energy ervce Company (ECO) s nfluenced by many factors n the development process n Chna. Ths artcle analyzed these rsk factors by usng IM approach, got the IM based model for the rsks of ECO and gave detaled explanaton to ths model, hopng to contrbute to ECO development n Chna. Keywords: Energy ervce Company (ECO); Interpretve tructural Modelng(IM); Rsk Factors 1 INTRODUCTION Energy s the essental materal bass for human survval and development. Chna s the second energy consumpton country who s next to Amerca n the world. Wth ncreasng growth of energy consumpton, the voce for energy-savng s becomng hgher and hgher. Chna's 12th fve-year plan clearly llustrated the energy conservaton and envronmental protecton task durng the "twelfth fve-year" perod, put forward per unt of GDP energy consumpton reduced by 16%, carbon doxde emsson reduced by 17%, also ponted create a green envronment, promote the grand development of servce ndustry. Therefore, energy conservaton and emsson reducton s no longer an envronmental problem, whch s an mportant career to promote Chna s economy and socety to take a sustanable development, low carbon development road. [1] cholars at home and abroad have done a lot of researches about EPC and ECO rsk factors. Mlls etc. dentfed the rsks assocated wth energy-effcency projects, classfyng them nto fve aspects,.e. economc, contextual, technology, operaton, measurement and verfcaton (M&V) rsks and puttng forward Monte Carlo smulaton model and the coeffcent of varaton the two rsk analyss technology as tools for quantfcatng and managng energy projects rsks [2]. Esn Okay etc. analyzed the EPC present stuaton and problems n Turkey by lterature revew and offered related suggeston [3]. Wang Tng, Hu Bo beleved that energy management contract project rsks nclude: external envronment rsk, energy-savng technology rsk, market rsk, fnancng rsk, organzaton and management rsk, customers rsk, and establshed the gray analytc herarchy evaluaton model to evaluate the rsks of the energy-savng project usng Analytc Herarchy Process (AHP) and gray system theory [4]. hang Tancheng, Pan Zhenn systematcally analyzed the exstng polcy rsk, market rsk, fnancng rsk, operaton rsk and beneft rsk based on the mplementaton status of EPC n Chna, evaluated the rsks by the theory of fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton and proposed a rsk-control optmzaton model [5]. There are no lacks of studes on nvestgatng rsk factors of the ECO. However, most researches about EPC and ECO rsks n Chna solated analyzed the effect of every rsk factor on the project, rather than analyzng the mutual restrctve or nfluence relatonshp between every rsk factor n a systematc and dynamcal vew pont. Ths paper ams to fll ths gab by employng IM approach to analyze the rsk factors and fnally obtan the results and conclusons

2 2 METHODOLOGY In ths paper, the objectve of the work s acheved by the methodology of Interpretve tructural Modelng (IM). IM s a conceptual model whch was developed to analyze the complex socal and economc system structure and so on by J.N.Warfeld professor n Amerca n 173. Its basc dea s: through a varety of creatve technology extractng the component elements of the problem, usng drected graph, matrx and computer technology to deal wth the element and other mutual relatonshp, fnally construct a multlevel structural model. It decomposes the complex system nto several subsystems (elements) wth people s actual experence, eventually establsh the system as a multlevel herarchcal structure model, explct the level and the overall structure of the problem. [7] IM s a knd of analyss wdely used n the system engneerng method and can smplfy and model the complex problems n socal and economc system. Zhang Xaoqng etc. through constructng the ndex system of low carbon buldngs and analyzng these ndexes by IM, fnally got senor and basc ndexes, whch promoted the development of low carbon buldng [8]. Yang Bn etc. explaned the mechansm of the offshore ol feld development project s rsk usng IM, and got the herarchcal relatonshp between each rsk factor through the model []. 3 APPLICATION OF IM To analyze the rsk factors for the ECO n Chna, ten factors are consdered based on the related lterature. These factors are: polcy rsk, technology rsk, management rsk, fnancal rsk, ncome rsk, market rsk, credt rsk, customer rsk, cognzance rsk, credt rsk. And varables 1, 2, refer to them. From the lterature ten rsk factors are taken and after dscusson wth experts. These experts are managers, executves of ECO and professors n unversty and some other people n socety. 3.1 Adjacent Matrx A Adjacent matrx s square whch shows system tellng basc bnary relaton or drect contract, A= { aj}. In ths matrx, a nn * j means the drect relatonshp between rsk factor and j, namely: 1, R j; aj = 0, R j;. Based on the lterature revew and experts advce, the adjacent matrx s gven n Fg A = Reachablty Matrx M FIG. 1 ADJACENT MATRIX A The reachablty matrx M s used to represent that what extent dfferent nodes n a drected graph can reach to(.e. the ndrect nfluence) each other through some certan channels. The reachablty matrx M s calculated from the adjacent matrx A, usng the Boolean algebra operaton, we get:

3 o, reachablty matrx M s 3.3 Level Parttons ( A+ I) (A+ I) (A+ I) = (A+ I) 3 (A+ I), whch s shown n Fg.2. M = FIG.2 REACHABILITY MATRIX M The reachablty set and antecedent set for each factor s obtaned from the reachablty matrx. The reachablty set for a partcular varable conssts of the varable tself and the other varables whch t may help acheve. The antecedent set conssts of the varable tself and the other varables whch may help n achevng them. Namely, the reachablty set s: the antecedent set s: R( ) = { j j a, j = 1, j= 1, 2,, n} = 1, 2, n ; A( ) = { j j a, j = 1, j= 1, 2,, n} = 1, 2, n. The varable for whch the reachablty and the ntersecton sets are the same s gven the top-level varable n the IM herarchy whch would not help acheve any other varable above ther own level. After the dentfcaton of the top-level element, t s dscarded from the other remanng varables. In ths study, the ten rsk factors, along wth ther reachablty set, antecedent set, ntersecton set and levels are presented n Table 2. From Table 2, t can be seen that fear of falure factor s found at levelⅠ. Thus t would be postoned at the top of the IM model. Ths nteracton s contnued tll the levels of each varable are obtaned. The dentfed levels ad n buldng the dgraph and fnal model of IM. TABLE 1 LEVEL PARTITION FOR FACTOR: ITERATIONⅠ-ITERATION Ⅳ Rsk factors Reachablty set R ( ) Antecedent set A( ) Intersecton set R ( ) A( ) Iteraton No.&level 5 5 1,2,5,6,7,,10 5 Ⅰ Ⅰ Ⅱ 6 6 1,6, 6 Ⅲ Ⅲ 1 1, 1, 1, Ⅳ Ⅳ

4 3.4 Formaton of IM Based Model Based on the partton above, the ECO nterpretve structural model s generated and gven n Fg.3. The relatonshp between the rsk factors and j s shown by an arrow pontng from to j. Level Ⅰ Income rsk Customer rsk Level Ⅱ Technology rsk Management rsk Fnancal rsk Credt rsk Level Ⅲ Market rsk Other rsk Level Ⅳ Polcy rsk Cognzance rsk FIG.3. THE ECO INTERPRETIVE TRUCTURAL MODEL 4 REULT We have gotten the ECO structural model by IM. The mechansm of the ECO rsk could be saw clearly. From ths model, we fnd ths system s a four-lever herarchcal structure model. Level Ⅰ: Income rsk and Customer rsk. Gettng the most beneft s the most fundamental purpose of each company. Income rsk s avodless, whle t can be mtgated though enhancng and mprovng techncal equpment and management level. Energy-consumpton customer s closet partner wth ECO, whch drectly affects the whole process of energy-savng project operaton and ts mportance s self-evdent. Customer s cooperated wth ECO, so t wll not brng too many rsks. In a word, these two rsk factors are ECO nternal rsk factors and the surface rsk factors. Level Ⅱ: Technology rsk, Manage rsk, Fnancng rsk and Credt rsk. These four rsks have nfluence on each other. The lack of technology, the nsuffcent of captal, the low level of customer s credt nevtably would affect the management of ECO; In turn, the poor management also would affect the speed technology upgradng, customer s credt level and the ablty to obtan bank loans. In a word, these four rsk factors are ECO nternal rsk factors and the mddle-level rsk factors, whch are most drect rsk factors restrct ECO to realze ts value. Level Ⅲ: Market rsk and Other rsk. Market s an ndspensable and mportant factor for ECO development and growth. Whether the external market s well or not drectly affect the procurement of equpment and the update of technology, then affect the proft. Other rsk here manly means the bad weather or natural dsasters brng unnecessary loss to ECO, whch also has nfluence on a company s management and has rsks on proft. In a word, these two rsk factors are ECO external rsk factors and the mddle-level rsk factors. Level Ⅳ: Polcy rsk and Cognzance rsk. Polcy rsk may affect the changes of the laws and regulatons of the buyer s and seller s market, the mprovement of the fnancng polcy, the contract that ECO sgns wth energyconsumpton customer. Cognzance rsk emphaszes the subjectve effect of the publc. As an ECO, what t can do s just lookng forward the natonal polcy wll be more and more perfect and the cogntve ablty and acceptance level of the publc s more and more ncreased. In a word, these two rsk factors are ECO external rsk factors and also the fundamental rsk factors. In concluson, from the ECO structural model, we can fnd that the fundamental factors(rsk factors n level Ⅳ), the drect factors(rsk factors n level Ⅱ), the nternal factors(rsk factors n level Ⅰ and Ⅱ) and the external factors (rsk factors n level Ⅲ and Ⅳ)of the energy-savng beneft sharng model ECO rsk generaton. 5 CONCLUION EPC s a new energy-savng mechansm and busness model wth good wde development prospect. In terms of years

5 of development abroad, t s a mature technology wth huge development potental and market, whose smooth mplementaton can make every partcpants ncludng: ECO, energy-consumpton customer, nvestment organzaton, the government, the thrd party(energy-savng research nsttutons, Energy-savng montorng and evaluaton center), the socal publc obtan consderable benefts. Nowadays, ECO n Chna really faces many rsks whch not only hnder tself development, but also sn t conducve to the development of the country's energy-savng. Ths artcle s from the pont of vew of system engneerng, uses IM approach to analyze the rsk factors of ECO, offers a new perspectve for ECO rsk management. Though buldng multlevel herarchcal structure model, the herarchy relatons between varous rsk factors can be clearly found. It s convenent for company manager to fnd the surface and the fundamental factors whch affect proft quckly. Lookng forward to contrbute to EPC and energy conservaton and emssons reducton n the future n Chna. REFERENCE [1] Xe ZH, Dng XY. The management practce and rsk preventon of EPC. hangha Press, 2011:11-15 [2] Evan Mlls. Rsk transfer va energy-savngs nsurance. Energy Polcy 2003, 31(3): [3] Esn Okay, Nesrn Okay, Alp Er.Konukman, Ugur Akman. Vews on Turkey s mpendng ECO market: Is t promsng? Energy Polcy, 2008, 36: [4] Wang T, Hu B. The rsk evaluaton of EPC management tem. Power demand sde management, 2007, (5):24-26 [5] hang TC, Pan ZN. The rsk research of modern enterprse EPC management tem. Journal of Tanjn unversty, 2007, (3): [6] Zhang XD. ystem Engneerng, 2010, 7 [7] Zhang XQ, Zhu YL, Chen HX, Wang X. The ndex system analyss of low carbon buldng based on IM. Modern tmes, 2011, 12: [8] Yang B, Yu B, un Q. The research of offshore ol and gas development project rsk based on IM. Journal of Harbn engneerng unversty, 2010,31():