Analysis of the Niche Restaurant Market for Farm-Raised Black Sea Bass, Centropristis striata, in North Carolina

Transcription

1 Analyss of the Nche Restaurant Market for Farm-Rased Black Sea Bass, Centroprsts strata, n North Carolna James D. Wlde, Chrstopher F. Dumas and Wade O. Watanabe Unversty of North Carolna Wlmngton Center for Marne Scence Wlmngton, NC

2 Black Sea Bass (BSB) fshbase.org Commercally mportant seafood speces 2006 commercal landng value of over $1.7 mllon (NCDMF) Not currently farm-rased on commercal scales for retal use Hgh retal demand and value Southern stock s consdered overfshed (NOAA 2007) Northern stock s a speces of concern (NOAA 2007) Increased commercal restrctons lmt sze and total catch

3 Project Objectve Characterze the potental market for FARM-RAISED BLACK SEA BASS n the upscale, gourmet restaurant nche market of North Carolna. Seasonal varablty Demand Volume Geography Preparaton style (whole/fllet) Customer preferences (fat content, etc) Comparable/substtute speces

4 BSB Producton Methods BSB were spawned, reared as larvae and grown-out to market sze at the UNCW aquaculture faclty n Wrghtsvlle Beach, NC BSB were grown-out n two near-commercal scale recrculatng aquaculture tanks BSB were fed twce daly, 6 days per week to apparent sataton Growth montorng data showed that BSB reached early market szes of 567g (1.25 lbs) at about 16 months

5 Methodology Restaurants were randomzed and dvded nto 3 strata n NC: western, central and eastern Restaurants meetng our nche market requrements were dentfed and provded fresh, chlled whole farmrased BSB. Nche crtera: 1. Serves seafood 2. Is not a buffet 3. Average dnner entrée prce $12 Partcpatng restaurants were provded 1-6 fresh, chlled whole BSB Chefs prepared BSB n styles of ther choosng and completed a survey Prce scenaros: Same as subst. spp., +20%, -20% Survey responses were characterzed usng regresson analyses

6 Survey Response Data 129 total restaurants contacted 78 total partcpatng restaurants (60%) Western: 29 surveys, 44 contacted (66%) Central: 22 surveys, 47 contacted (47%) Eastern: 27 surveys, 38 contacted (71%) G goal: 30 restaurants per regon

7 BSB Product Attrbute Rankng Results Rankng Scale: 1-10, 10 very mportant Freshness, taste, chlled product, sze and contnuous avalablty had mean mportance rankngs 8.0 Farm-rased mean rankng of 3.8 Wld-caught mean rankng of 4.1 Snapper and Grouper most commonly cted substtute speces Least mportant attrbutes ncluded nutrtonal labelng, lve product, certfcate of orgn promoton wth mean rankngs 2.96 Western (6.62) and central (6.00) regon preferred organc avalablty more than eastern restaurants (3.71) Fat content of ave mportance (5.96)

8 pounds ,t,s fsh nt Regresson Model Explanng pounds purchased per month sprcesq bsbprce,t ns 0,t,s sprngd 5 bsbprsq seatcap avalprob,t,s 2 9 falld 13 6 entreepr 3 sprce,t seasonal wnterd 10 entreeprsq e,t,s where: ndexes restaurant t ndexes tme of year s ndexes prce scenaro

9 Example Scenaro Summer season Substtute fsh = $7.50/lb BSB prce = $7.50 All other varables = mean values lbs/month/restaurant purchased Smlar scenaro for year-round, all seasons demand: Estmated statewde BSB demand = 394,798 lbs/yr

10 NC Market Study Conclusons Average of lbs purchased per month per restaurant Estmated statewde demand s 394,798 lbs./year Statewde demand would support ,000 lbs./yr Snapper/Grouper are substtute speces Rest. w. hgher entrée prces purchase more BSB BSB attrbutes most mportant to buyers were freshness, chlled product, sze and contnuous avalablty Lttle preference for wldcaught BSB over farm-rased Pounds purchased n wnter season lower than other seasons

11 Analyss of nche market demand for farm-rased rased Black Sea Bass, Centroprsts strata,, n four major U.S. metro ctes: Phladelpha, New York Cty, Atlanta and San Francsco James D. Wlde, M.S., Chrs Dumas, Ph.D., Wade Watanabe, Ph.D. Unversty of North Carolna Wlmngton Center for Marne Scence, Aquaculture Program Cameron School of Busness, Economcs and Fnance

12 Seafood /sush restaurants per cty Samplng and response rates Estmated restaurants n nche Restaurants n nche contacted Samplng rate Restaurants refusng Restaurants partcpatng Response rate Phla % % NYC % % Atlanta % %

13 Buyer product preferences All three ctes agree: Most mportant product attrbutes are freshness, avalablty, sze. Least mportant are lve product, nutrtonal labelng and empty GI tracts Snapper and grouper are most comparable to BSB Prefer fresh, chlled BSB that are 1.5 lbs wth moderate to hgh fat content No nterest n frozen BSB product Responses varyng by cty: Phladelpha and NYC show nterest n 1.0 lb BSB products whereas Atlanta does not Phladelpha and NYC commonly compare BSB to strped bass but not one Atlanta restaurant dd ths Atlanta restaurants show preference for domestc seafood Wthn Phladelpha and NYC, seafood supplers are frequently shared among restaurants whereas Atlanta supplers are much more vared

14 pounds, t, s bsbprce seatcap phllyd Multple regresson models sprngd 0, t, s bsbprsq entreepr atlantad, t, s 10 e 2 sprce entreeprsq, t, s falld 6 wnterd 3, t sprcesq 7 11 avalprob, t Pounds per restaurant per month Season BSB prce Substtute speces prce Seatng capacty Entrée prce Has experenced problems wth avalablty of BSB Cty PRICE SCENARIOS BSB prce s equal to substtute speces prce BSB prce s 20% less than substtute speces prce BSB prce s 20% more than substtute speces prce

15 Example scenaro: NYC Nche Market Suppose BSB prce s equal to snapper prce at $5.39/lb 29.6 mean lbs BSB per month per nche restaurant mean lbs BSB per year per nche restaurant 306 estmated number of NYC restaurants n nche 108,540 mean lbs per year demand from NYC nche restaurants

16 Conclusons and future consderatons Phladelpha, NYC and Atlanta each have large populatons of upscale seafood and sush restaurants Geographcal locaton of ctes nfluence ndvdual BSB markets dfferently Increasng BSB prces and sprng, fall and wnter seasons reduce BSB demand Hypothetcal BSB purchases ncrease wth seatng capacty Promsng mplcatons for BSB aquaculture nclude market preferences for freshness, hgher fat contents, and an nterest n 1.0 lb BSB products Currently seekng fundng to assess European and Asan markets for export Further studes must be conducted to evaluate commercal-scale shppng, transt and logstcs for ndustry development Contnued efforts toward mprovng growth rates va det, nutrton and manpulaton of photothermal regmes are mperatve New farm-rased black sea bass markets may soon nclude organc products and corporate brandng