And EVs. Grid-Scale Energy Storage with Increased PV. Paul Brooker FSEC Advisory Board Mee2ng October 21, 2016

Transcription

1 Grid-Scale Energy Storage with Increased PV And EVs Paul Brooker FSEC Advisory Board Mee2ng October 21, 2016

2 Effects of PV on the Grid Mismatched supply and demand lead to the duck curve High PV Produc1on High Demand 45% genera1on from PV 2

3 Modeled PV and Baseload Conflict Impacts on u1li1es will occur before 45% PV NREL predicts 20% PV is sufficient to require energy storage 5% of poten1al PV is stored P. Denholm and R. Margolis. Energy Storage Requirements for Achieving 50% Penetra1on of Solar Photovoltaic Energy in California. Na1onal Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/PR-6A

4 Modeled PV and Baseload Conflict Impacts on u1li1es will occur before 45% PV NREL predicts 20% PV is sufficient to require energy storage 5% of poten1al PV is stored But we don t have to wait for PV for storage to become relevant P. Denholm and R. Margolis. Energy Storage Requirements for Achieving 50% Penetra1on of Solar Photovoltaic Energy in California. Na1onal Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/PR-6A

5 Impact of EVs on the Grid: ResidenBal Grid capacity can accommodate Evs for several decades May have local transformer loads exceeded in residen1al neighborhoods Residen1al TOU rates causes a shia in charge start 1me Introduces new peaks aaer midnight 5

6 Electric Charger Usage 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Plugged in: How Americans Charge their Electric Vehicles 6

7 Impact of EVs on the Grid: Commercial Building Power (kw) Building demand charges could be increased Aug High number of AC L2 chargers could increase building power levels Momentary DC fast charge peak could increase costs by > $300 3-Aug 5-Aug 7-Aug 9-Aug 11-Aug 13-Aug 15-Aug 17-Aug 19-Aug 21-Aug 23-Aug 25-Aug 27-Aug 29-Aug 31-Aug 7

8 Building Power (kw) Impact of EVs on the Grid: Commercial Building demand charges could be increased Aug High number of AC L2 chargers could increase building power levels Momentary DC fast charge peak could increase costs by > $300 3-Aug 5-Aug 7-Aug 9-Aug 11-Aug 13-Aug 15-Aug 17-Aug 19-Aug 21-Aug 23-Aug 25-Aug 27-Aug 29-Aug 31-Aug Building Power (kw) w/o DCFC 100 w/ DCFC 50 0 w/ DCFC off-peak 0:00:00 6:00:00 12:00:00 18:00:00 0:00:00 Time on 8/3/15 8

9 Effect of DC Fast Charging on EBs Tallahassee electric bus route uses in-route fast charging Without demand charges = $0.06/kWh With demand charges = $0.28/kWh Efficiency (kwh/mile) Cost per Mile ($) Electric Bus Diesel Bus

10 Current Electric System Grid Incorpora1ng renewable energy is challenging Reserves kept opera1ng for grid stability Work Homes Loads Must be stable at 60Hz Load and genera1on must be matched Types of power plants: Base load Load following Peaker Types of grid services: Frequency/voltage regula1on 0-10s response = low energy 10s-1min response = med energy 1-10min response = high energy Spinning reserves Daily load following 10

11 Electricity Demand ForecasBng Daily and seasonal varia1on requires dayahead forecas1ng Establish contracts to purchase/sell electricity for the next day Actual vs. forecast differences are met through reserves Chart from hjp:// Accessed Oct

12 Dispatchable vs. Base GeneraBon Dispatchable = vary power plant output Natural gas power plants Baseload = constant power output (minor varia1on acceptable) Nuclear, coal geothermal Peaker power plants Load-following, spinning reserves Baseload power plants S. Kaplan. Power Plants: Characteris1cs and Costs, CRS Report for Congress Order Code RL34746, November 13,

13 Power Plant Response Times More rapid response has greater value to grid Steam generators are slow Bajeries are nearly instantaneous Steam generator response to control signal Ideal response C. Glazer. Markets, regula1on and Energy Storage: A Match Made in Heaven?, EIA 2013 Energy Conference June 17,

14 LCOE for GeneraBon Technologies 14

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16 Energy Storage SoluBons hjp:// 16

17 Energy Storage SoluBons hjp:// 17

18 Energy Storage SoluBons Lead acid Oldest, most well-known Highly developed recycling chain Lowest cost/kwh Rela1vely low energy storage capacity < 3 year life1me hjp:// Diagram%20Simple 18

19 Energy Storage SoluBons Lithium ion Widely accepted in the technology field Employed by EVs more than any other bajery Cost/kWh has decreased by 70% in last 8 years < 5 year life1me C. Cooper. Vehicle Technologies Office Overview. Annual Merit Review and Peer Evalua1on Mee1ng, June hjp:// 19

20 Energy Storage SoluBons Flow bajery NASA technology from the 70s Energy stored in tanks Power delivered in stacks Power delivery Energy storage 20

21 Energy Storage SoluBons All Vanadium Anode: V 2+ /V 3+ df Cathode: VO 2+ /VO 2 + High tolerance to deep discharge No dendrite forma1on High capital cost ($>500/ kwh) Commercially available (Gildemeister CellCube) > 15 year life1me Zn-Br Anode: Zn/Zn 2+ Cathode: Br - /Br 2 Possible dendrite forma1on Oil phase required for bromine stability High capital cost Commercially available (ZBB, RedFlow) > 10 year life1me 21

22 Energy Storage Use Cases Grid operators Buildings Storage Tech Energy req d (MWh) LifeBme (yrs) Transmission LA, Li, Flow Peaker LA, Li, Flow Frequency Li Distribu1on LA, Li, Flow PV Integra1on LA, Li, Flow Microgrid LA, Li, Flow Island Grid LA, Li, Flow Commercial/Industrial LA, Li, Flow Commercial appliance LA, Li, Flow Residen1al LA, Li, Flow % DOD cyc/ day Lazard s Levelized Cost of Storage Analysis Version 1.0. November

23 LCOS for Grid-Scale 23

24 LCOS for Building Operator 24

25 Cost Outlook 25

26 Electric Vehicles 140 i PHEVs 15 BEVs PHEV - G+E PHEV - Gas BEV Hybrid 62 Hybrids 100 MPGe A3 Plug In 3-Series Plug in i8 X5 ELR Volt C-Max Energi Fusion Energi Accord Plug In Sonata Plug In GLE 550e Hybrid S550 Plug In Cayenne S E-Hybrid Panamera S E-Hybrid Prius Plug In XC90 Plug In ActiveE i3 Spark 500e Focus EV Fit EV Soul EV B-Class Electric Leaf fortwo EV Model S Model X RAV4 EV e-golf ILX Hybrid NSX Hybrid RLX Hybrid Q5 Hybrid 7-Series ActiveHybrid ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih) ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) X6 xdrive ActiveHybrid Lacrosse Hybrid Regal Hybrid Escalade Hybrid Impala Hybrid Malibu Hybrid Silverado Hybrid Tahoe Hybrid Aspen Durango C-Max Hybrid Escape Hybrid Fusion Hybrid Sierra Hybrid Yukon Hybrid Accord Hybrid Civic Hybrid CR-Z Insight Sonata M Hybrid Q50 Hybrid Q70 Hybrid QX60 Hybrid* Optima Hybrid CT200h ES Hybrid GS 450h HS 250h LS 600h NX Hybrid RX 400 / 450 h MKZ Tribute Hybrid E400H ML450H S400HV Hybrid Mariner Milan Altima Hybrid Pathfinder Hybrid* Cayenne Hybrid Panamera S Hybrid Aura Vue XV Crosstrek Hybrid Avalon Hybrid Camry Hybrid Highlander Hybrid Prius C Prius Liftback Prius V RAV4 Jetta Hybrid Touareg Hybrid 26

27 16 PHEVs Hybrid 15 BEVs 4% 3% $3.00 2% $2.50 $2.00 1% $1.50 0% PHEV BEV FSEC Gasoline A Research Gasoline Price 0 A3 Plug In 3-Series Plug in i8 X5 ELR Volt C-Max Energi Fusion Energi Accord Plug In Sonata Plug In GLE 550e Hybrid S550 Plug In Cayenne S E-Hybrid Panamera S E-Hybrid Prius Plug In XC90 Plug In ActiveE i3 Spark 500e Focus EV Fit EV Soul EV B-Class Electric i Leaf fortwo EV Model S Model X RAV4 EV e-golf ILX Hybrid NSX Hybrid RLX Hybrid Q5 Hybrid 7-Series ActiveHybrid ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih) ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih) X6 xdrive ActiveHybrid Lacrosse Hybrid Regal Hybrid Escalade Hybrid Impala Hybrid Malibu Hybrid Silverado Hybrid Tahoe Hybrid Aspen Durango C-Max Hybrid Escape Hybrid Fusion Hybrid Sierra Hybrid Yukon Hybrid Accord Hybrid Civic Hybrid CR-Z Insight Sonata M Hybrid Q50 Hybrid Q70 Hybrid QX60 Hybrid* Optima Hybrid CT200h ES Hybrid GS 450h HS 250h LS 600h NX Hybrid RX 400 / 450 h MKZ Tribute Hybrid E400H ML450H S400HV Hybrid Mariner Milan Altima Hybrid Pathfinder Hybrid* Cayenne Hybrid Panamera S Hybrid Aura Vue XV Crosstrek Hybrid Avalon Hybrid Camry Hybrid Highlander Hybrid Prius C Prius Liftback Prius V RAV4 Jetta Hybrid Touareg Hybrid MPGe 120 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Percent of Total Vehicle Sales 140 Electric Vehicles PHEV - G+E PHEV - Gas BEV Hybrid Ins1tute of the University of Central Florida 62 Hybrids $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 OR? $1.00 $0.50 $- 27

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29 Grid operators Buildings operators City planners Vehicle OEMs (Airplanes, freight, trains) 29

30 PotenBal Vision of Future Energy H2 at Scale: Deeply decarbonizing our Energy System. HTAC Presenta1on April 6,

31 V2G LocaBons Ancillary Service Frequency regula1on Minimum Power 1 MW (primary) 2-3 MW (secondary) 10 MW (ter1ary) Required Interval 0 sec 10 min 30 sec 30 min 30 min 6 hr Energy/vehicle Up to 1 kwh kwh 3 40 kwh Ideal LocaBons for V2G Peak Shaving kw 2 10 hr 6 60 kwh Home, Work Load shiaing 100 kw-2 MW 20 min 1.5 hr 2 10 kwh Home, Work Home, Work, Shopping, Social Home, Work, Shopping, Social Home, Work Back-up Power 5kW (residen1al) 500kW (commercial) 5 hr 5 days kwh kwh 31

32 V2G LocaBons Ancillary Service Frequency regula1on Minimum Power 1 MW (primary) 2-3 MW (secondary) 10 MW (ter1ary) Required Interval 0 sec 10 min 30 sec 30 min 30 min 6 hr Energy/vehicle Up to 1 kwh kwh 3 40 kwh Ideal LocaBons for V2G Peak Shaving kw 2 10 hr 6 60 kwh Home, Work Load shiaing 100 kw-2 MW 20 min 1.5 hr 2 10 kwh Home, Work Home, Work, Shopping, Social Home, Work, Shopping, Social Home, Work Back-up Power 5kW (residen1al) 500kW (commercial) 5 hr 5 days kwh kwh 32