The Dynamics of ICT R&D in China. Stéphane Grumbach INRIA

Transcription

1 The Dynamics of ICT R&D in China Stéphane Grumbach INRIA Asian rise in ICT R&D Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), JRC Bruxelles, Feb

2 ICT in China: mobile and online 450 millions online people (60% under 30) 19% growth in millions mobile 300 millions mobile surfer 30% growth Very active online world China leading in terms of usage penetration of web 2.0 applications (McKinsey) S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

3 ICT in China: the industry New ICT giants with strong export capacity Lenovo Spin-off of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Bought IBM PC s for 1.75 Billions US$ 2005 #1 PC market in Asia-Pacific region ZTE and Huawei Telecom equipment Global research network China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom Telecom operators Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba Internet S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

4 ICT in China: the research 1. National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin, China Tianhe-1A - NUDT, Intel X5670, processors 2566 Tflops 2. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, Cray Inc., processors, 1759 Tflops 3. National Supercomputing Centre in Shenzhen (NSCS) Nebulae - Dawning, Intel X5650, processors, 1271 Tflops 4. GSIC Center, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan TSUBAME HP Xeon 6C X5670, processors 1192 Tflops 5. DOE/SC/LBNL/NERSC USA Hopper - Cray XE processors 1054 Tflops 6. CEA, France Tera-100 Bull processors 1050 Tflops Nov 2010 Chinese systems: 2 in the TOP5 42 in the TOP500 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

5 ICT in China from Research to Development S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

6 Human resources 20 millions students --- 5% tertiary education (USA 37%) New promotion: 15% of an age group S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

7 Chinese students abroad Foreign recipients of U.S. S&E doctorates, by country recipients Source S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

8 Global R&D expenditure 2008 Source: OECD-MSTI 09 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

9 Global R&D expenditure 2008 Expected R&D expenditure 2011 China: 150 billion US$ Japan: 150 billion US$ USA: 400 billion US$ Source: OECD-MSTI 09 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

10 ICT in China: a research priority Program 863 for High-tech R&D (2008) Expenditure on R&D China s high-tech industries Source: MOST (2009b) Annual Report of the State Programs of Science and Technology Development S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

11 Publications SCI: 6% of world total 15% yearly growth #5 (behind US,JP,GB,DE) EI: 20% of world total 30% yearly growth #2 (behind US) Source: 2009 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

12 Impact and visibility Strong evolution of the citation rate of publications 13 th position (18th in 2003) Progression of citations: 28% in 2006 Publications SCI % of articles never cited 225 articles cited more than 100 times (129 in 2005) Impact Reasonable in new materials, mathematics, chemistry, physics In ICT: 20,995 SCI papers ( ) 8.3% of world total 1.91 citation per paper (world average 3.25) S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source:

13 Expenditure by domain Weak fundamental research: 5% OECD average: 20% Still a logic of developing country Technological catch up But strong link with fundamental research abroad S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb 2011 Source: MOST 13

14 IPR: triadic patents Global share Source: OECD-STI 08 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

15 Proprietary standards Priority of the 12 th 5 year plan ( ) TD-SCDMA is China s 3G standard AVS is China s standard for Audio & Video (competitor of MPEG-4 AVC) FutURE Forum to prepare China s upcoming Beyond 3G standard SCDMA, China s standard that could compete with Wimax Enhanced Versatile Disk, China s standard for HD DVD Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Ministry of Science and Technology IGRS is China s home networking standard China Communications Standard Association Internet 2 & IPv6 technologies DMB-T China s national standard for Digital Terrestrial TV SARFT announced China's National Standard for Mobile TV & interactive multimedia services (STiMi & CMMB) RFID China s national standard for RFID under discussion China BroadBand Wireless IP Standard Working Group, promoter of WAPI, China s WLAN GM-U Code, China National Standard for 2D barcodes S. Grumbach standard Bruxelles - Feb Ref. Hervé Cayla, Gailong

16 R&D expenditures by performing sector Industry represented only 45% in 1998 Source S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

17 Industrial R&D spending 2008 Circa 1 Trillion US$ For the 1000 top corporations Source: Booz Global Innovation 1000 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

18 Few Chinese corporations in R&D 2008 investment in R&D A dozen Chinese corporations among the top 1000 None in the top 100 PetroChina Million Euros, (intensity 0.7%) ZTE (telecom equip.) Million Euros, (9.6%) China Petroleum & Chemical China Railway Construction China Coal Energy China Communications Construction BYD Electronic equipment Source: 2009 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

19 #1 for ICT exports since 2004 High-Tech exports mostly under foreign brands Source: MOST S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

20 4 Chinese among the first 16 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

21 S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

22 Source: S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

23 Globalization of R&D 1993: First foreign R&D center (Motorola) 2004: 700 foreign R&D centers 2005: China 1 st localization for new R&D centers ahead of the USA and India Objectives 1) adapt products to local market 2) technological intelligence 3) global R&D Attractiveness of China 1) market shares vs. technologies participation in the design of Chinese standards 2) talents 3) costs S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

24 Most R&D labs are in IT Figure 1 The industrial distribution of autonomous R&D labs settled by Business Week 1000 MNCs in China % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%1% 23% 7% 7% 5% 13% 18% Software Semiconductors Automobiles Biotechnology&Drags Other IT Products Food and beverages Others Telecommunications Industrial Equipments and components Commodity Chemicals Household Electronics Chemicals Industrial Conglomerates S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

25 Concluding remarks A belief in Science Scientific policy 2.5% of GDP in R&D by 2020 World scientific leader by 2050 A test for High-Tech and ICT Young population Modernizing country A tradition of networking An economic and political strength Recover its glorious past Capacity to reform and adapt to changes S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb

26 References UNESCO Science Report 2010 OECD Factbook 2009 OECD Science, Technology and Industry (STI) Scoreboard 2009 OECD Reviews of tertiary education, CHINA, 2009 OECD Reviews of Innovation Policy, CHINA, S. Grumbach Bruxelles - Feb