Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

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Edwin Foster
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United Nations conomic Commission for urope

#00079039 «Management of the Neman basin with

1 United Nations conomic Commission for urope LITHUANIA NVIRONMNTAL PROTCTION AGNCY Project # «Management of the Neman basin with account of adaptation to climate change» Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen Basin Report on milestone 1 April 2012

2 Table of Contents xecutive Summary Meteorological and hydrological data collection Temperature and precipitation Runoff Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics Temperature and precipitation Runoff xamples of the Niemen Basin water resources current status mapping Conclusion

3 xecutive Summary This report was prepared by the group of experts including Vladimir Korneev (Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR), Minsk, Belarus), gidijus Rimkus (Vilnius University, Lithuania); dvinas Stonevicius (Vilnius University, Lithuania); Aliaksandr Volchak (Brest State Technical University, Brest, Belarus); Lubov Hertman, Ivan Bulak and Aliaksandr Pakhomau (CRICUWR, Minsk, Belarus). The next activities were made in the frame of the ToR (Milestone 1): Activities on preparation of current status report about water resources in the Niemen Basin includes * : Meteorological and hydrological data collection and quality analysis (data from 1961 to 2010); Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics; Preparation a draft version of basin-wide maps series regarding evaluation of changes in meteorological and hydrological regime in the river basin from 1961 to Participation in the Third Workshop on Water and Adaptation to Climate Change (25-26 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland) and in the Fifth Meeting of the Task Force on Water and Climate of the Convention of the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (27 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland) including: Presentation of main results of research on the current status of the Niemen Basin; Participation in the Lunch time Session Information on the UNC Water Convention with short intervention of 5-7 minutes on why Belarus has ratified the Water Convention, what have been the consequences, what are the advantages of being a Party to the Convention (at the national level, in the bilateral and multilateral cooperation, etc) as well as what are the main challenges; Participation in the Niemen Pilot Project Team Workshop together with representatives from UNC and nvsec; Interview about progress of the Niemen Pilot Project and about other projects and activities in the frame of UNDP and nvsec in Belarus to the valuation Team: Dr. Stephen Webber and Ms Pamela White (Finnish Consulting Group, commissioned by MFA Finland to conduct a Mid-Term valuation of all components of the Wider urope Initiative implemented by MFA Finland, including coverage of the NVSC and FinWaterWI activities); 3

1. Meteorological and hydrological data collection The next detailed data were collected (monthly) and pre-proceeded with calculation of seasonal, annual values (data from 1961 to 2010); 1.1.

4 1. Meteorological and hydrological data collection The next detailed data were collected (monthly) and pre-proceeded with calculation of seasonal, annual values (data from 1961 to 2010); 1.1. Temperature and precipitation Data from 23 stations due to statistical validity of data: 8 stations in Belarus, 15 stations in Lithuania (see picture 1, tables 1,2): Additional information necessary for hydrological modeling was also collected including wind speed, humidity, sunshine duration Picture 1 Meteorological observation network in the Niemen Basin used for the analysis of current status 4

5 Table 1 xample of the meteorological data and theirs pre-proceeding: Temperature (Baranovichy meteorological station) Year t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12 tgod Winter Spring Summer Autumn

6 Year t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t10 t11 t12 tgod Winter Spring Summer Autumn Table 2 xample of the meteorological data and theirs pre-proceeding: Precipitation (Baranovichy meteorological station) Psum/ Year P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 Winter Spring Summer year Autumn

Year P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 Psum/ year Winter Spring Summer Autumn 1992 26 40 25 44 55 20 16 27 155 71 59 21 559 92 124 63 285 1993 50 16 44 27 34 93 158 44 92 28 18 83 687 87 105 295

7 Year P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 Psum/ year Winter Spring Summer Autumn Runoff Data from 25 stations due to statistical validity of data: 12 stations in Belarus, 13 stations in Lithuania (see picture 2, table 3): Picture 2 Hydrological observation network in the Niemen Basin and sub basins of the rivers used for the analysis of current status 7

8 Table 3 xample of the hydrological data and theirs pre-proceeding: water discharges (Grodno hydrological station) Year Average annual water discharge Water discharge Q(m 3 /s) Minimum water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Average annual water discharge Discharge Per Unit Catchment Area, l/s/km 2 Minimum Minimum water discharge water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges springflood

9 Year Average annual water discharge Water discharge Q(m 3 /s) Minimum water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Average annual water discharge Discharge Per Unit Catchment Area, l/s/km 2 Minimum Minimum water discharge water discharge summerautumn (VI-XI winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges springflood Average ( ) Difference, % Probability of Student distribution

10 2. Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics was made with the purposes of changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics definition. Aggregated results of statistical analysis are presented in tables 4-6 and in pictures Temperature and precipitation Table 4 - Aggregated results of statistical analysis of changes of meteorological characteristics in the Niemen Basin Name of station Temperature Position # in the Average temperature ( ) national Latitude Longitude Register Winter Spring Summetumn Au- Annual 10 Temperature change ( C)( minus ) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual Baranovichi 53 07' 54'' 25 58' 16'' Grodno 53 36' 13'' 24 02' 39'' Volkovyssk 53 08' 05'' 24 27' 34'' Lida 53 54' 25'' 25 19' 24'' Novogrudok 53 35' 48'' 25 51' 04'' Vileika 54 30' 25'' 26 59' 23'' Volozhin 54 05' 42'' 26 30' 56'' Naroch 54 53' 52'' 26 40' 56'' Kaunas 54 53' 23 50' Kybartai 54 38' 22 47' Laukuva 55 37' 22 14' Lazdijai 54 14' 23 31' Panevėžys 55 45' 24 23' Raseiniai 55 23' 23 07' Šilutė 55 21' 21 28' Ukmergė 55 15' 24 46' Utena 55 32' 25 36' Varėna 54 15' 24 33' Vilnius 54 38' 25 06' ADDITIONAL STATIONS Biržai 56 12' 24 46' Klaipėda 55 44' 21 04' Šiauliai 55 56' 23 19' Telšiai 55 58' 22 15' PRCIPITATION Name of station Latitude Longitude # in the national Register Average precipitation sum ( ) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual Precipitation change (%)( / ) Winter Spring Summer Autumn Baranovichi 53 07' 54'' 25 58' 16'' Grodno 53 36' 13'' 24 02' 39'' Volkovyssk 53 08' 05'' 24 27' 34'' Lida 53 54' 25'' 25 19' 24'' Novogrudok 53 35' 48'' 25 51' 04'' Vileika 54 30' 25'' 26 59' 23'' Annual

11 Volozhin 54 05' 42'' 26 30' 56'' Naroch 54 53' 52'' 26 40' 56'' Kaunas 54 53' 23 50' Kybartai 54 38' 22 47' Laukuva 55 37' 22 14' Lazdijai 54 14' 23 31' Panevėžys 55 45' 24 23' Raseiniai 55 23' 23 07' Šilutė 55 21' 21 28' Ukmergė 55 15' 24 46' Utena 55 32' 25 36' Varėna 54 15' 24 33' Vilnius 54 38' 25 06' ADDITIONAL STATIONS Biržai 56 12' 24 46' Klaipėda 55 44' 21 04' Šiauliai 55 56' 23 19' Telšiai 55 58' 22 15' Assessment of the change of temperature ( 0 C) in the Niemen Basin ( ) - ( ): on average C 2.4 Months (difference, 0 C) Months (difference, %) January February 2.0 March 1.3 April 1.2 May June July Picture August 0.9 September 0.2 October 0.1 November Assessment of the change of precipitation (%) in the Niemen Basin ( ) - ( ): on average +6.98% December January February March April -6.5 May June July Picture 4 August September October November -7.0 December 11

12 2.2. Runoff Table 5 - Aggregated results of statistical analysis of changes of hydrological characteristics in the Niemen Basin Discharge per Unit averages ( ) ( ) ( ) Differences (%) Name of the water body Name of station Latitude Longitude Catchment area, km 2 Average annual water discharge Minimum water discharge summer-autumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Average annual water discharge Minimum water discharge summer-autumn (VI-XI Minimum water discharge winter (XII,I,II Maximum water discharges spring-flood Neman Stolbtsy 26 42' 56" 53 28' 43" Neman Mosty 24 32' 10" 53 24' 11" Neman Grodno 23 48' 23" 53 40' 43" Isloch Borovikovshina 26 44' 16" 53 57' 26" Gavya Lubiniata 25 38' 40" 53 59' 26" Schara Slonim 25 19' 37" 53 04' 56" Svisloch Sukhaya 24 01' 33" 53 28' 04" Dolina Vilija Steshytsy 27 23' 39" 54 33' 50" Vilija Mikhalishki 26 09' 59" 54 48' 50" Naroch Naroch 26 43' 33" 54 33' 24" Oshmyanka Bolshiye Yatsiny 26 12' 57" 54 44' 27" Dubysa Lyduvenai 23 5' 14.1" 55 30' 23.1" Jūra Taurage 22 16' 45" 55 15' 4.0" Merkys Puvociai 24 18' 12" 54 7' 4.3" Šešupė K. Naujamestis 22 51' 49.2" 54 46' 37.5" Minija Kartena 21 28' 48.2" 55 54' 59.2" Šventoji Anykščiai 25 5' 52.7" 55 31' 29.9" Šventoji Ukmerge 24 46' 8.0" 55 14' 48.0" Žeimena Pabrade 25 46' 21.0" 54 59' 1.7" Nemunas Druskininkai 23 58' 48.7" 54 1' 9.4" Nemunas Nemajūnai 24 4' 26.3" 54 33' 14.8" Nemunas Smalininkai 22 35' 15.6" 55 4' 22.3" Neris Vilnius 25 16' 36.5" 54 41' 31.1" Neris Jonava 24 16' 54.9" 55 4' 10.2" Average

13 Table 6- Aggregated results of statistical analysis of changes of hydrological characteristics in the Niemen Basin (monthly change) Name of the water body Name of station Latitude Longitude Catchment area, km 2 January February March April ( ) - ( ) Months (difference (%)) Neman Stolbtsy 26 42' 56" 53 28' 43" Neman Neman Isloch Gavya Schara Svisloch Vilija Vilija Vilija Naroch Oshmya nka Dubysa Jūra Merkys Šešupė Minija Mosty Grodno Slonim Vileika Naroch Bolshiye Yatsiny Borovikovshina Lubiniata Sukhaya Dolina Steshytsy Mikhalishki Lyduvenai Taurage Puvociai Kartena Žeimena Pabrade Neris Neris K. Naujamestis Šventoji Anykščiai Šventoji Ukmerge Nemunas Nemunas Nemunas Druskininkai Nemajūnai Smalininkai Vilnius Jonava 24 32' 10" 23 48' 23" 26 44' 16" 25 38' 40" 25 19' 37" 24 01' 33" 27 23' 39" 26 55' 26" 26 09' 59" 26 43' 33" 26 12' 57" 23 5' 14.1" 22 16' 45.0" 24 18' 12.0" 22 51' 49.2" 21 28' 48.2" 25 5' 52.7" 24 46' 8.0" 25 46' 21.0" 23 58' 48.7" 24 4' 26.3" 22 35' 15.6" 25 16' 36.5" 24 16' 54.9" May June July August September October November ' 11" ' 43" ' 26" ' 26" ' 56" ' 04" ' 50" ' 45" ' 50" ' 24" ' 27" ' 23.1" 55 15' 4.0" December ' 4.3" ' 37.5" 55 54' 59.2" 55 31' 29.9" 55 14' 48.0" 54 59' 1.7" ' 9.4" ' 14.8" 55 4' 22.3" 54 41' 31.1" 55 4' 10.2" Average

50 40 42.0 Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen Basin (1985-2009) - (1961-1984): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%; minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.

14 Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen Basin ( ) - ( ): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%; minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.4% 44.2 Months (difference, %) January February March April May June July August September October November December Picture xamples of the Niemen Basin water resources current status mapping A series of the basin-wide maps (draft version) regarding evaluation of changes in meteorological and hydrological regime in the river basin from 1961 to 2010 was prepared. Total amount of maps is 28 including 11 meteorological maps and 17 hydrological (see examples of maps on the pictures 6-8). Picture 6 14

15 Picture 7 Picture 8 15

16 Conclusion Main results of research on the current status of the Niemen Basin was presented and approved in the Third Workshop on Water and Adaptation to Climate Change (25-26 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland) and in the Fifth Meeting of the Task Force on Water and Climate of the Convention of the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (27 April 2012, Geneva, Switzerland); Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological characteristics (the main tendencies and trends): Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and summer temperature (largest changes were observed in January); Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation; Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in large part of territory Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow tends occur earlier in the whole basin area. Most surprising finding in assessment of current status and in vulnerability assessment of the Niemen Basin - considerable variation of an meteorological and hydrological characteristics change in year-scale from 1961 on at temperature increase on the average on 1 0 С from 1961 on 2010 meteorological and hydrological characteristics are both increasing or decreasing in some months year. Most important lesson from the assessment of current status - common approach (Belarus- Lithuania) on meteorological and hydrological data pre-proceeding, statistical analysis and elaboration of meteorological and hydrological characteristics changes trends. 16

3. Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in 2009

3. Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in 2009 Nitrogen emission data, as well as the model results presented here have been approved by the 35 th Session of the Steering Body of EMEP in Geneva