Smart Grid Pilot Project in Japan An Update

Transcription

1 13/July/2012 Smart Grid Pilot Project in Japan An Update Takanori Ida Professor of Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Japan Fulbright Scholar of Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley, USA Fulbright Scholar of Demand Response Research Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., USA Joint with Makoto Tanaka of GRIPS and Koichiro Ito of Stanford Univ 1

2 Short Self Introduction Takanori IDA, Male, b.1965 Professor of Kyoto University, Graduate School of Economics, Japan Ph.D in Economics (Kyoto U) Some experiences of living abroad: 1997U of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, U.S.A 2001 U of Cambridge, U.K 2011 Fulbright Grantee (UCB and LBNL, USA) Research Areas: Telecommunications Economics (Broadband and 3G Mobile) Behavioral Economics (Addiction and Smoking) 2

3 Overview 3

4 Starting point is March 11. Fukushima crisis Tsunami disaster 4

5 What Japan s Energy Policy Will Be after the March 11 Disaster? Decrease the nuclear power share from 30% at present to 0% (?) in the long-run. Increase the renewable energy share from 10% at present to 20% in Speedup the smart meter deployment among 80% households within 5 years. Reconsider the structure of electricity industry including the vertical separation. Proceed the smart grid pilot projects to cut and shift demand peaks. 5

6 How Are the Japanese Feeling Now? Evidence from the Kyoto U UC Berkeley Joint Survey (On-line, N=4000 for Japanese & 4000 for American, Feb 2012) Q1 The government should aggressively work on reducing the emission of greenhouse gases to mitigate climate change. Totally Agree Somewhat Agree Neither Somewhat Disagree Totally Disagree Japanese 20% 44% 28% 5% 3% American 30% 34% 22% 6% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6

7 How Are the Japanese Feeling Now? Q2 My perception toward nuclear power has changed since the nuclear accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plants in Japan on March 11, Totally Agree Somewhat Agree Neither Somewhat Disagree Totally Disagree Japanese 30% 38% 24% 5% 3% American 15% 22% 36% 13% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7

8 How Are the Japanese Feeling Now? Q3 What is your view on the future of nuclear power? 1: New plants should be built as part of an aggressive program of expansion. 2: New plants should be built, but cautiously. 3: The current situation should be maintained. 4: Current nuclear power plants should be demolished in the future. 5: Current nuclear power plants should be immediately demolished. Japanese 2% 11% 15% 46% 16% American 13% 38% 18% 7% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8

9 The Disaster and Smart Grid Policy In light of the March 11 earthquake and the Fukushima crisis, a radical reconsideration of Japanese energy policy is now being discussed. The smart grid (the next generation power network) consists of home appliances equipped with IT technology connected to the power grid and can achieve energy saving and cost reduction. 9

10 Smart Grid Policy in Japan Originally, Japan required a smart grid to promote the introduction of renewable energy as the measures against global warming. This is because the power grid is connected to solar and wind power generators whose energy supply tends to be unstable depending on the weather. In response to the power shortage that suddenly occurred after the March 11th earthquake, the social expectations to the smart grid have been growing. 10

11 Smart Grid Policy in US On the other hand, the introduction of a smart grid in the United States was discussed as part of measures to address the electricity demand in response to a serious power shortage of California 10years ago. The objective consisted on reducing the gap between demand and supply during peak hours by the use of smart meters that can assign dynamic electricity pricing. Now the Obama administration intends to promote the development of a smart grid under the slogan of a Green New Deal. 11

12 Smart Grid Converging between US and Japan While the United States and Japan began to consider the smart grid differently, nowadays both countries are converging toward the same direction: promoting energy conservation and renewable energy deployment. From April 2010, the Ministry of Economy of Japan launched four-city smart-community pilot projects. Each project pursuits specific goals with different scale for each region. 12

13 Smart Grid Economics Projects 13

14 Smart Grid Economics Project scpcities : Yokohama, Toyota, Kyoto-Osaka-Nara, Kyushu. now works as an e a to by introducing and 14

15 Research Questions The following four hypotheses have been established to be verified in the Smart Community Program: Are reductions of energy use and carbon dioxide emissions promoted at individual household levels by introducing HEMS and visualizing energy use? Is consumer cost consciousness improved by introducing a dynamic pricing system? Is environmental awareness stimulated at the community level by the introduction of Social Network Services to encourage citizen participation? Is total factor productivity increased on the energy supply side by promoting demand responses and shifting their peaks? 15

16 Multiple Critical Peak Pricing Treatments Past pilot projects had only one level of CPP and seldom estimated the global demand elasticity. I therefore offered to that multiple CPPs should be examined such that some response threshold would be detected: CPPs = 50 for Event 1, 75 for Event 2, and 100 /kwh for Event 3. 16

17 Other Information treatments Bilateral communication incentives, by using Mobile Phone Out-reach, in Home Display, Web Portal. Upgrade from manual demand response (MDR) to automated demand response (ADR), by using Heat Pump, Home Battery, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, and so on. Energy Saving Consulting and Old Appliances Replacement, based on the individual hourly measured electricity consumption data. 17

18 Goal of Smart Grid Economis My advice: Japanese manufacturers should cooperate without delay with overseas players and participate in the creation of international standards. My concern: All Japan type of ideas have unnecessarily created a counterattack from overseas markets and can lead to a Galapagos effect (isolation) of Japan s technologies. My task: TEPCO will deploy smart meters across 17 million customers (corresponding to 80% of the total demand) until We must next consider how to migrate from the present flat rate to dynamic pricing systems. 18

19 Four City Pilot Projects 19

20 Kyoto Osaka Nara High-tech HEMS Smart tap which visualizes energy consumption and controls home electronics energy usage. Electric power virtual coloring technology that actualizes total home energy management system. Yokohama Large-scale (4000) Smart Homes Energy management system which integrates HEMS, BEMS, CEMS27000 kw Use of heat and unused energy The largest scale 4000 Smart houses, 2000 EVs Kyushu Dynamic Pricing Energy management system which integrates demand-side managements (HEMS, BEMS) and main grid system. Real-time pricing management in 70 companies and 200 houses Toyota Plugin HEV cars (next Plius) EV/PHEV deployment with V2H and V2G Use of heat and unused energy as well as electricity Demand response with more than 70 home 20

21 Yokohama Recruit 3000 ~ 4000 opt-in participants classified into 4 groups: PV+HEMS (N=1200) in 2012 PV+HEMS+All Electrics (with Heat Pump and TOU already introduced) (N=800) in 2012 PV+HEMS v.2 (N=500) in 2013 Only HEMS (N=500) in 2013 Randomized Controlled Trial RCT starts for the PV+HEMS in 2013, with a phase-in upgrade to ADR in 2014 RCT starts for the PV+HEMS+All Electrics in 2013, with a phase-in upgrade to ADR in 2014 RCT starts for the PV+HEMS v.2 in 2014 RCT starts for the only HEMS in 2014

22 Yokohama Price Treatments Dynamic Pricing Treatment (TOU or multiple CPPs) for the PV+HEMS, the PV+HEMS v.2, and the only HEMS, given a flat rate as the control Dynamic Pricing Treatment (multiple CPPs) for the PV+HEMS+All Electrics, given a TOU rate as the control Multiple CPPs: m-cpps = 50 set for Treatment 1, 100 set for Treatment 2, and 150 /kwh set for Treatment 3 respectively. The charge should be imposed on the net electricity consumption, defined as the gross consumption minus PV power generation, for the PV installed residences, which can be negative at day time. We guard respondents by giving an advance account ($100), revenue neutrality, and bill protection when imposing such high CPPs. 22

23 Yokohama Information Provision etc. Treatments Bilateral communication incentives, by using mobile out-reach, in home display, web portal, and some recommendations Upgrade from manual DR to ADR (using automatically controlled air conditioners or home battery) for the PV+HEMS and the PV+HEMS+All Electrics in

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25 Grouping and Treatments PV+HEMS (N=1200) that starts in 2013 In Buying Net Electricity (PV generation < in-house consumption) Control Flat 240(Information120 None120) Treatment 1 TOU 240(Information120None120) Treatment 2 Flat w. m-cpp( 50) 240(Information120None120) Treatment 3 Flat w. m-cpp( 100) 240(Information120None120) Treatment 4 Flat w. m-cpp( 150) 240(Information120None120) In Selling Net Electricity (PV generation > in-house consumption) Control Official sell price (Information120None120) Treatment 1 Official sell price (Information120None120) Treatment 2 Incentive sell price 50240(Information120None120) Treatment 3 Incentive sell price (Information120None120) Treatment 4 Incentive sell price (Information120None120) 25

26 Grouping and Treatments PV+HEMS+All E (N=800) that starts in 2013 In Buying Net Electricity (PV generation < in-house consumption) Control TOU 200(Information100None100) Treatment 1 TOU w. m-cpp( 50) 200(Information100None100) Treatment 2 TOU w. m-cpp( 100) 200(Information100None100) Treatment 3 TOU w. m-cpp( 150) 200(Information100None100) In Selling Net Electricity (PV generation > in-house consumption) Control Official sell price (Information100None100) Treatment 1 Incentive sell price 50200(Information100None100) Treatment 2 Incentive sell price (Information100None100) Treatment 3 Incentive sell price (Information100None100) 26

27 Toyota Recruit 230 participants classified into 2 groups PV+HEMS+Battery+Heat Pump+PHEV (N=67) in 2012 Only PV+HEMS (N=160) in 2012 Randomized Controlled Trial RCT starts for those with PHEV in 2012, with a phase-in upgrade to ADR after 2013 RCT starts for those without PHEV in 2012

28 Toyota Price Treatments Real Time Pricing (RTP) ( 100% ~ + 300%) for those with and without PHEV, given a flat rate as the control The charge should be imposed on the net electricity consumption, defined as the gross consumption minus PV power generation, which can be negative at day time. Information Provision etc. Treatments Upgrade from manual DR to ADR (home battery) for those with half PHEV, while stay in manual DR for the others with other hal PHEV 28

29 Time Schedule Plan With PHEV + Battery (N=67) A (N=33) Manual DR (RTP) ADR (HP) ADR (HP) Without PHEV (N=160) B1 (N=80) Manual DR (Flat) Manual DR (TOU w. CPP) Manual DR (TOU w. RTP) B2 (N=80) Control (Flat) Control (Flat) Control (Flat) Not randomized Controlled between groups with and without PHEV + Battery (A and B). Randomized Controlled within PHEV + Battery (B1 and B2).

30 Kyoto Recruit 700 participants classified into 2 groups HEMS+All Electrics (with Heat Pump and TOU already introduced) in 2012 Only HEMS (with Flat stayed) in 2012 as a control group Randomized Controlled Trial RCT (price treatment) starts in 2012, while RCT (information treatment) starts in 2013

31 Kyoto Price Treatments Dynamic Pricing (varying CPP) for the HEMS+All Electrics, given a TOU as the control Dynamic Pricing (varying CPP) for the only HEMS, given a flat rate as the control Varying CPP: v-cpp takes values of 50, 100, and 150 /kwh randomly. We guard respondents by adopting advance account ($100) and bill protection when imposing such high CPPs. Information Provision etc. Treatments Energy Saving Consulting and Old Appliances Replacement (with Rebate), based on the individual hourly measured electricity consumption data, for the HEMS+All Electrics and the only HEMS. 31

32 Time Schedule Plan + Consulting + Consulting

33 Grouping and Treatments Price Treatment (v-cpp) and Information Treatment (Consulting with Rebate) are both randomized controlled. 33

34 Kyushu Recruit 200 apartment participants All Electrics (with Heat Pump and TOU already introduced) in 2012 Randomized Controlled Trial RCT starts for those in 2012, with a phase-in upgrade to Smartphone Reach-out in 2013

35 Kyushu Price Treatments Dynamic Pricing (varying CPP) for the those, given a TOU as the control Varying CPP: v-cpp takes values of 50, 75, 100, and 150 /kwh randomly. We guard respondents by adopting advance account ($100), revenue neutrality, and bill protection when imposing such high CPPs. Information Provision etc. Treatments Smartphone Reach-out for those starts in 2013 Social Network Incentives for those starts in 2014

36 Time Schedule Plan

37 37

38 level) level) level) level) level) basic 38

39 level) level) level) level) level) basic 39

40 Kyushu The First Two Event Days Results June 29th 84.5 F Control 26 (Flat) Treatment 15 (Level 1) July 5th 86.0 F Control26 (Flat) Treatment 50 (Level 2) July 6th 87.0 F Control26 (Flat) Treatment 75 (Level 3) 40

41 Next step TEPCO will deploy smart meters across 17 million customers (corresponding to 80% of the total demand) until We must next consider how to migrate from the present flat rate to dynamic pricing systems and how to set TOU as default and CPP as optional. We may well regard the migration process as a large-scaled pilot experiment (N=5,000 ~ 10,000) along with the AMI deployment. Migration should be required for small business and residential customers: The current Flat (default) w. TOU (optional) The future TOU (default) w. CPP (opt-out) and CPP (opt-in) TOU (default) w. CPP (shadow bill) and CPP (bill protection) 41