Computer-aided Business Case Assessment in Engineering Design Education

Transcription

1 Dr Askin T. Isikveren Director, MSc Integrated Aerospace Systems Design Director, Engineering Design Degree Programme Depts of Aerospace Engineering & Engineering Mathematics & Computer-aided Business Case Assessment in Engineering Design Education March 2009

2 2 The Business Case In all engineering initiatives the only acceptable basis for launching a [product] development programme is one in which low risk, high ROI and shortest possible timeline is secured Up to 80% of the life-cycle cost of most high valued-added engineered products is incurred during the conceptual design phase Ref: VKI Lecture Series A US Perspective on Future Commercial Airplane Design McMasters, 2005 By the time completion of the design and development stage occurs 95% of the product cost is fixed and most of the development cost is spent

3 3 Complex Investment Decisions Are categorised by: Long investment periods Outgoings over many years Income over many years Large and frequent expenditures Significant risk factors It requires: Create Positive cash flow earlier Decrease net cash outflow Increase net cash inflow Annual Cash flows over many years An account for the time effect on the value of money Determination of the value of the investment in terms of today s Money NPV The return needs to be compared to the fixed return of the other investment to determine which is most suitable

4 4 SEER-H Software: Why is it useful? Used widely in industry US DoD, Boeing (e.g. the AH- 64A Apache Rotorcraft), Ford, Northrop Grumman Provides development, production, operations and support estimates for systems and sub-systems (also estimate integration costs) Can input detailed part information, such as complexity or finishing details, to improve estimate Business case can can now now be be coupled into into the the multi-objective optimisation problem best and and balanced design

5 5 Engineering Design Education: AEROSPACE Group Design Project Aerospace Vehicle Design & Systems Integration 3F/4F Each Group (10-12 members) is required to carry out the design of a complete aircraft to the given Design Specification The study is competitive with each Group attempting to produce the best, balanced design Support Each Group has a academic advisor General support is given by a team of active and retired externals Duration The project is 16 contact weeks, spanning early-oct to mid-feb

6 6 UB2009F Project Brief The Greener By Design committee have proposed that instead of flying long distance routes non-stop, significant fuel savings could be achieved by flying these routes as two or more shorter flights, stopping en-route to refuel. The purpose of this task is to design a passenger aircraft to compete against mid-sized non-stop, longrange aircraft, but optimised for multi-stop operations, and hence a shorter design range requirement. The aircraft must meet the regulatory, economic and environmental needs of operators for an intended Entry into Service date of 2020.

7 7 UB2009F Project Competitors B B A B787-8 A

8 8 UB2009F Project Low-risk, Low-cost Option

9 9 UB2009F Student Project Proposals GRP 1F GRP 2F GRP 3F GRP 4F

10 10 GRP 2F Family of Aircraft 3200 nm range 300/406 passengers 148 T MTOW Passengers 4000 nm range 250/338 passengers 143 T MTOW 6000 nm range 200/284 passengers 152 T MTOW Range (nm)

11 11 GRP 2F Final Design Results vs. UB2009 (LHR SIN) Noise = 51% CO 2 = 13% DOC = 2% NO x = 21% COC = 9% Block Fuel= 15% Block Fuel = 5% COC = 21% CO 2 = 8% Block Time = +18% NO x = 5% Noise = 60% vs. VX250 (LHR SIN)

12 12 GRP 2F Modelling Input Equipment Type Application Platform Acquisition Category Weight Material Composition Quantity Mean Time Between Failure (electrical components) Output Development Cost Production Cost Equipment Support Cost System Level Cost Development Labour Hours

13 13 GRP 2F Modelling Results

14 14 GRP 2F Modelling Results Viridis aircraft were designed with: Common wing, empennage, undercarriage and engines SEER-H software was used to calculate the product development cost if there was no family commonality and it was found that: V200 production unit cost of V200 was reduced by 5.4% and V300 by 4.1% Breakeven analysis was also carried out using SEER-H software Analysis shows the return can be boosted USD4B if family commonality exists

15 15 GRP 2F Scope-Schedule Planning

16 16 The Engineering Design Degree Programme Future Leaders of Multi-disciplinary [Large-scale] Engineering Projects How? Capture a broad systems architect understanding engineering, business, social/environmental issues Foster excellent communication skills Acquire experience in working in multi-disciplinary teams Specialist competence in one sub-discipline of Engineering Gain experience in applied and practical engineering

17 17 Engineering Design: Industrial Partners GE Aviation Propellers & Avionics Galorath as Software Partner

18 18 Engineering Design Education: ENGINEERING DESIGN Industrial Group Projects A genuine back-burner issue that needs resolution Multi-disciplinary team with headcount of 5 students Compatible with the man-power, computing and workshop resources of the University Spend limit of 2,000 from the University plus support from the Industrial Sponsor Two-year timescale First year emphasis on design candidates for down-select, experiments rigs and/or modelling/simulation tools Second year focuses on detailed design, integration, optimisation and business case

19 19 Y0102 Cohort: Completed Y0506 (inaugural) Motorola: Robotic Security Guard Robotic investigator able to navigate autonomously around a mapped environment, log and avoid obstacles, and identify objects of interest

20 20 Y0203 Cohort: Completed Y0607 Arup: Redeveloping Blackfriars Station Innovative redevelopment of existing Blackfriars Railway Station into a transport interchange ready for the increased growth demands

21 21 Y0304 Cohort: Completed Y0708 Airbus UK: Multi-modal Freight Hub Feasibility and preliminary design of a multi-modal freight hub at the former RAF base at Lyneham

22 22 Group Industrial Projects Completion Y0809 Arup: Elevated Ride / Transport System between mainland and Lulu Island in Abu Dhabi Babcock: Mechanical Handling System for Nuclear Waste Flasks GE Aviation: Novel Propeller Pitch Change Mechanism for Open Rotor Aero Engine HP Labs: Personal Eco Footprint Reduction System Motorola: Hydro Pico Generator for Mobile Phone Base Station

23 23 BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask Project Objective To reduce the cost of ILW interim storage facilities by simplifying the mechanical handling of waste and considering different methods of storage Problems with current method: Increased final volume of waste containers are still extremely radioactive Storage facilities very expensive Solution advantages: Volume reduction techniques, such as vitrification Dispense with complicated mechanical handling systems Less expensive storage facilities Designed for low cost production Current ILW Storage Process Proposed Shielded Package Standardised shielded lid Standardised package exterior Waste liner Variable Steel shot concrete shielding

24 24 BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask Through Life Cost of an Interim ILW Storage Project Large construction cost of storage facility Project Cost Overall cost saving Reduced initial cost Current Storage Method Storage Using Shielded Containers Time Business case objectives: Prove total cost of ILW interim storage is reduced Show reduced yearly expenditure, resolving funding issues

25 25 GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors Then Now. Investigate the feasibility of adopting open-rotor layout for seat, The Easyjet Ecojet single-aisle aircraft, EIS around 2018 A TSFC (fuel burn) drop of 25% must be met or exceeded The increase in maintenance costs must not exceed the benefit gained from efficiency improvements Simple, reliable mechanism for blade pitch change is required Jet?

26 26 GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors Model based on best case of ~400 aircraft orders a year Initial engine production cost estimate of $7.1M similar to CFM56 list price of $7.0M GE UDF Engine Program: Life Cycle Cost Allocation Development (0.8%) Production (40.5%) Operating Site (22.5%) Total Equipment Support (31.2%) Total System Level Cost (5.0%) Chart showing the breakdown of the life cycle cost of ~$48 bil No. per Engine Weight per unit (kg) Weight per Engine (kg) Development Cost ($) Production Cost per unit ($) Cost per engine ($) Nacelle ,600, , ,000 Engine Core (based on existing ,000,000 5,800,000 5,800,000 tech) Hydraulic Actuators ,000,000 1,500 27,000 Hydraulic Pump ,800,000 11,500 23,000 Prop Blades ,500,000 6, ,000 Electrical Harness ,000 4,000 4,000 Transformer ,400, , ,000 System Integration Costs 122,200, ,000 Totals ,850,000 7,148,000

27 27 MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower Project Objective Design of a pico-hydropower system (under 1.5 kw) to power a mobile telephone base-station in developing countries Currently expensive diesel generators are used renewable power should be cheaper and more environmentally friendly

28 28 MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower Many conflicting factors More civil works more reliable water flow smaller system overall Complex electronic control higher cost but higher system efficiencies Simplified turbine runner lower cost but reduced efficiency Considerations include: Site Selection Dam Materials and Weir Orientation Turbine Housing Turbine Runner Electrical Generator Battery System Cost Performance

29 29 Y0607 Cohort: Completion Y0910 & Y1011 Wind-powered Vehicle design, build and test a vehicle to carry one person that can drive directly into the wind Submit entries for Aeolus Competition in the Netherlands