Advanced Vehicle Technology

Transcription

1 Advanced Vehicle Technology MEMA Financial Services Group September 14, 2017 Brian Daugherty Chief Technology Officer

2 Agenda Electrification Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication V2V Overview NHTSA s V2V Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Vehicle Cybersecurity Software-Over-The-Air Updates OBD-II Port (Data Link Connector) Efforts Auto-ISAC Automated Vehicle Technology

3 Vehicle Electrification the Hype Volvo s July 5th announcement MY2019 and later newly designed models will be hybrids or EVs PR coup when this was misinterpreted by the press over confusion between the terms electrified and electric (as well as the dates) The upshot: Volvo will still be selling vehicles with non-hybrid internal combustion engines (ICEs) through ~MY2025 Most EU OEMs will electrify to meet the EU 7 standards in 2020 (95g CO 2 /km avg.) Tesla Model 3 Launch - One area to watch will be assembly plant efficiency Nikola and Tesla s HD efforts

4 Vehicle Electrification the Reality Only about 3% of light vehicles sold in the US are hybrids and about 0.7% of light vehicles sold are BEVs Electrification is being driven by regulation not economics Fuel economy regulation (Phase II, CAFE, CO 2 ) In the case of light vehicles the ZEV mandate in CA Although significant progress has been made, batteries are still too expensive (fuel savings vs. battery depreciation) Diesel and gasoline are very efficient energy storage methods and offer fast refueling

5 Hybrids Are Essentially Required to meet MY2025 US Standards

6 CV Electrification Electrification of both on-engine and off-engine components for improved fuel efficiency Fully Electric Vehicles (Nikola, Tesla, etc.) Building electric prototypes is quite easy With current technology, the batteries would be too large The proposed solution high efficiency hydrogen fuel cells to directly power the electric motors Hydrogen is very hard to transport and store, but it meets the requirement for fast refueling

7 Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications (V2V, V2X)

8 What is V2V (aka V2X)? 5.9 GHz two-way radio and GPS based technology Also called Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) Allows a vehicle to see other vehicles beyond the range of radar, cameras, and other sensors Enhances existing Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) Allows low cost vehicles to have ADAS features Projected by NHTSA to help in 80% of non-impaired crashes Great potential for aftermarket systems

9 NHTSA s Proposed V2V Mandate NHTSA s V2V NPRM that will require DSRC technology on all light vehicles sold in the US was officially released in January The V2V systems must be able to: Transmit and receive the standard Basic Safety Message (BSM) at 10 Hz to and from surrounding vehicles Receive over-the-air (OTA) software and security certificate updates MEMA provided comments to NHTSA regarding the NPRM If the rule is adopted in 2019, the phase-in would begin in 2021 and all light vehicles would need to comply in 2023 The US may require V2X systems on all commercial vehicles as well possibly including retrofits for existing vehicles

10 Spectrum Issues The DSRC spectrum was allocated by the FCC over 10 years ago for use in automotive safety applications Now after years of development and millions of dollars of investment by suppliers and OEMs, V2X technology is ready for deployment The spectrum borders the existing 5.8 GHz Wi-Fi band, so it is coveted by Wi-Fi, wireless, and cable companies Intense lobbying of the FCC to share this spectrum The transportation industry is severely outgunned in this discussion, but holds the moral high ground V2X has tremendous future safety potential, so it s important to keep this spectrum allocated for automotive safety

11 What Does This Mean for the Aftermarket? To reach full potential, all vehicles must be equipped with V2V Aftermarket sales and installations are the only way to do this quickly States and insurance companies may incentivize the installation of V2V equipment OE hardware costs are approximately $200 Both LV and CV aftermarket installations would cost significantly more and would include custom installation of V2V modules, the user interface, wiring, and antennas

12 Vehicle Cybersecurity

13 Vehicle Hacking is a Real Threat Threats from nation-states (asymmetric warfare, economic damage) and individuals ($$, theft, or fame) OEMs, suppliers, and the government are working together to fully understand the potential attack surfaces involved and stay ahead of the threat Vehicle cybersecurity will be a serious issue - forever Current vehicles architectures (primarily J1939 and CAN) were not designed to be plugged into the outside world Vehicle owners expect to be connected

14 Secure-by-Design Architectures We need to move to secure by design architectures The riskiest timeframe is the period before these new architectures are in place OEMs (and suppliers) would like to have Over-the-Air (OTA) software update capability (aka FOTA, SOTA) to provide more rapid and lower cost software and security updates All connections into the vehicle network provide potential attack surfaces for hackers Physical - Diagnostic ports (OBD-II) Wireless - Telematics and infotainment interfaces (BT, Wi-Fi, cellular)

15 Software-Over-The-Air Updates MEMA is a member of the UPTANE group UMTRI, NYU, SWRI, most OEMs, and large Tier 1s Funded by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) We have attended all of the meetings Developing a secure Software-Over-The-Air (OTA, SOTA or FOTA) method for automotive and heavy truck use that will be available to the industry Significant progress Working demonstration system

16 The OBD-II Port OBD-II Port (SAE J1962) aka the Data Link Connector (DLC) Originally installed as a requirement for CAFE emissions data Used for Diagnostic Trouble Code (DTC) downloads Most OEMs also use it for proprietary data bus access Not so proprietary anymore as most OEM codes are available Two way communication can be used for vehicle commands Now being used for aftermarket telematics access to data using dongles Insurance companies driver/vehicle behavior and tracking Telematics, remote diagnostics, etc.

17 OBD-II Security Efforts OBD-II ports are now viewed as an Achille's Heel OEMs have no control over what customers plug into them No existing way to limit the data being transferred or to prevent commands from entering the data bus MEMA is participating on an SAE standards committee to provide industry guidance in securing the OBD-II port from cyber-attack (J3138) We are also working with SAE to develop a higher level steering committee dealing with all telematics data access and vehicle cyber threat issues

18 Telematics and Vehicle Data Access In the quest for cybersecurity, vehicle data access will be locked down Important to maintain access for the aftermarket on both light and heavy vehicles MEMA is heavily involved in these efforts to work with OEMs

19 The Auto-ISAC Auto-ISAC (Information Sharing and Analysis Center) Share cybersecurity best practices and cyberattack information Anonymous or open reporting of security issues MEMA is a strategic partner with the Auto-ISAC 16 OEMs and 19 tier 1 suppliers are now members The Auto-ISAC is also open to commercial vehicle OEMs, suppliers, and fleets Coordinates information with 24 other critical infrastructure ISACs

20 What Does This Mean for the Aftermarket? Aftermarket companies need to get involved with the SAE and ISO committees to work with OEMs on developing new cybersecurity standards to ensure that realistic aftermarket access remains available On-vehicle module data and parameters Off-vehicle telematics data Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) Increasingly complex vehicle systems Repair procedures Replacement parts

21 Automated Vehicle Technology

22 A Pioneering Vehicle is Retired In June, Waymo announced that it was retiring the iconic 50 vehicle Firefly fleet Now focused on its 600+ Chrysler Pacifica Minivans as test vehicles

23 How ADAS and Automated Vehicles Sense Their Environment Source: TI

24 Lidar Sensor Data

25 Lidar Sensor Data Source: Waymo

26 SAE Levels of Automation SAE Level 0 - the human driver does everything SAE Level 1 - an automated system on the vehicle can sometimes assist the human driver conduct some parts of the driving task SAE Level 2 - an automated system on the vehicle can actually conduct some parts of the driving task, while the human continues to monitor the driving environment and performs the rest of the driving task SAE Level 3 - an automated system can both actually conduct some parts of the driving task and monitor the driving environment in some instances, but the human driver must be ready to take back control when requested SAE Level 4 - an automated system can conduct the driving task and monitor the driving environment, and the human need not take back control, but the automated system can operate only in certain environments and under certain conditions SAE Level 5 - the automated system can perform all driving tasks, under all conditions that a human driver could perform them

27 Another Look at the SAE Levels

28 Automated versus Autonomous Two very different approaches Progressively add layers of safety and automated capability Otto (Uber), large tier 1s, and most traditional OEMs High potential for distraction during automated mode Up to 10 seconds to regain situational awareness The moonshot approach jump straight to SAE Level 4 or 5 Waymo (Google), nutonomy, Uber, and Apple s Titan Project Limited, geographically controlled trials with back-up drivers Silicon Valley, Singapore, Pittsburgh, and others Eliminates the problem of transitioning control back and forth with the driver

29 How Realistic is This? Automated vehicle systems are available now (Level 1 and 2) Both Waymo (Google) and Apple (Project Titan) appear to be backing off from their initial aggressive approaches The media hype versus reality The driving world is full of complex and random events that can confuse and potentially overwhelm automated systems Humans have proven to be amazingly good at handling very complicated and unusual situations (~1 fatality/100m miles) Very non-linear increase in problem difficulty Fully autonomous vehicles are a long way off except in very controlled environments (limited versions of Level 4)

30 The Importance of Reliability and Redundancy for Failsafe Capability A key and mostly undiscussed area is reliability and redundancy Automated vehicles need to be failsafe systems Having a driver with manual backup capability is a subtle but very important aspect in current vehicle systems The driver can take over when the automated driving sensors get confused In today s vehicles having a driver also provides a very low cost manual backup system for steering, braking, and engine control Redundancy is necessary for failsafe operation and gets expensive quickly

31 Reliability and Redundancy (continued) Demonstration versus production vehicles Demo vehicles are impressive, but have very little system redundancy Millions of miles travelling in autonomous mode during normal conditions is interesting, but irrelevant the true measure is how many times did the driver take over during the test (Ex: parking) The most difficult-to-handle driving events are very rare Multiple levels of true system redundancy will be required For the external navigation sensors And for steering actuators, braking systems, electrical systems... Redundancy is expensive and heavy, but necessary to achieve the required levels of failsafe capability

32 We Want to Avoid a Patchwork of State Automated Vehicle Laws

33 Federal Automated Vehicle Legislation Senate and House versions of AV legislation are underway Both chambers essentially separated issues into 3 buckets: Preemption, Exemptions, and Everything else MEMA been talking/meeting with committees staff Preparing advocacy messages MEMA s key objectives for any AV legislation are: Set suppliers ability to test, evaluate prototype systems/vehicles to equal OEMs State preemption Improve federal exemption process

34 Federal AV Legislation Details The House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously voted (54-0) to pass automated vehicle legislation (HR 3388) Clear delineation between federal and state roles Allows vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to test and deploy automated vehicles on public roads Creates a framework and establishes timelines for NHTSA to establish future regulations and set a priority safety plan Requires industry to submit Safety Assessment Certifications and to address cybersecurity and consumer privacy during development The Senate is working on similar legislation (Thune/Peters)

35 An Interesting Development Process

36 Automated Testing Disengagement Reports California s Department of Transportation released the 2016 Autonomous Test Vehicle Disengagement reports Very interesting reading Caution: potentially apples to oranges Don t know what level of system was being tested (i.e. more aggressive systems will have more disengagements) Testing conditions may differ among companies Some companies many do most testing in other states By far, Waymo (Google) has the most test miles and fairly complete reports

37 HD Automated Technology

38 Commercial Truck Platooning

39 HD ADAS Technology Several large fleets have completed trials of Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) technology Several of those fleets are now specifying AEB/ACC on all of their new trucks The economics make it worthwhile with several jury awards over $20M NHTSA s Light Vehicle MOU with 20 OEMs (covering 99% of LVs sold in the US) will drive radar prices down Driver assistance technologies are an excellent value

40 HD Automated Technology Uber and Tesla HD efforts SAE automation Level 2+ and Level 3 Professional drivers as the failsafe backup system for sensor and system failures Peloton V2V-based platooning for fuel economy savings Potential issue with brake variability - especially on trailers Aggressive drivers cutting between trucks How realistic are these technologies?

41 A Very Scary Test Photo

42 Automated Vehicle Repair Issues What happens when automated vehicles get older or after a heavy lifetime of use? This could be a short time, but 300K miles. Or it could be sensors that are 10+ years old. Should they be required to detect sensor failures and lock out the vehicle? How will we know when to retire these vehicles? Should retirement be mandated at a certain age or mileage level? Should inspections be required? At what frequency? Mileage or time based? Are aftermarket parts even an option?

43 What Will Happen in the Future? Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and automated vehicle technologies are available today and will continue to improve the safety and efficiency of transportation Fully autonomous vehicles (Level 5) will take much longer to develop than is commonly believed We will see Level 4 vehicles operating in very controlled environments quite soon Some companies may take excessive risks with testing or limited deployments requiring NHTSA to step in

44 Key Takeaways Don t let the hype surrounding fully autonomous vehicles distract us from the path to assisted and automated driving Failsafe operation based on system reliability and redundancy is critical for automated vehicles We should not reduce investment in more near-term safety and connected safety technologies including: ADAS and V2V V2V technology has tremendous potential to usher in the next wave of safety improvements as well as improving transportation efficiency Cybersecurity risks and threats will lead to significant changes in vehicle architectures that will impact the aftermarket

45 Thank You Brian Daugherty Chief Technology Officer Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association (248)