First South East European Regional CIGRÉ Conference, Portoroz

Transcription

1 First South East European Regional CIGRÉ Conference, Portoroz 2016 SEERC 4-02 Electric Vehicles Competitiveness And Ascendancy In Croatia With Green Strategies Overview M.Sc. Vlatko Ećimović HOPS d.o.o. Croatia M.Eng. Marijan Kalea Croatia SUMMARY Electric vehicles have been a very popular topic recently, praised through national media. The Croatian electricity company HEP has started expanding charging stations currently in city centers, and plan to develop a network of 345 charging stations in Croatia by Croatia has also started with direct non-refundable grants for electric vehicles. If this can be considered reasonable while Croatia is importing about 30-40% of its electricity demand will be discussed in this paper with emphasis on energy, ecology and economy issues. KEYWORDS Electric vehicle, electricity, energetic point of view, ecological point of view, economical point of view vlatko.ecimovic@hops.hr

2 Introduction Electric vehicles appeared at the beginning of 20th century, but further development of electric vehicles was shadowed by mass production and appliance of vehicles with petroleum engines. Continuous battery production progress has provided further development of modern energy efficient electric vehicles, where restrictive battery capacity is still the main limitation. Due to many innovations and improvements of battery production, last few years there is a considerable global interest for electric vehicles. One of the main reasons lies in an increasing public sense for ecological and environmental protection, as well as in different kinds of grants. Anyway, we examined doubtful advantages and competitiveness of electric vehicles. How many advantages they have compared to the vehicles with petroleum engines? For example, no outright gasses emission (CO 2 ), better engine efficiency, lower engine noise, less petrol dependency? A compact family car - comparison between electric vehicle and diesel engine vehicle We took comparison between electric and diesel models of the most popular family compact car in Croatia e-golf VII and Golf VII TDI Blue Motion, with 5 seats, purchased on Croatian market. In the table there are basic comparable parameters for both cars [7, 8]. Model: e-golf VII Golf VII TDI Blue Motion Price incl. tax: ,00 kn ,00 kn Technology: Full electric vehicle Turbo Diesel, 4 cylinder, 1598 cm 3 Max range: km km Max speed: 140 km/h 200 km/h Power: 85 kw/115 HP 81 kw/110 HP Fuel tank: No 50 l Average urban consumption: 12,7 kwh/100 km 3,8 l/100 km Battery: Li-ion 24,2 kwh No h, house outlet 220 VAC Charging: - 0,5 h (80% battery capacity), - DC fast charging station CO 2 emission: 0 g/km 85 g/km Seats: 5 5 Advantage: spacious compact family car 2

3 Consumption comparison In addition, we made calculation of outright cars consumption. Diesel Golf has average urban consumption of 3,8 l/100 km, with specific diesel mass of 0,83 kg/l and diesel fuel energy of 45,9 MJ/kg [1], outright diesel Golf consumption is about 145 MJ/100 km. Electric Golf has average urban consumption of 12,7 kwh/100 km, with 3,6 MJ/kWh, outright electric Golf consumption is about 46 MJ/100 km, that is only 32% of diesel Golf consumption. Result is expected, because electro motor is significantly more efficient in relation to diesel motor, when the car stops there is no consumption, and during braking electro motor brings back energy into the battery. But, we have to take further consideration we take losses in oil refineries about 1%, and refineries own consumption about 9% (in Croatia), that is in total about 10% of oil primary energy [1]. So, diesel Golf total consumption issues (145 MJ/100km / 0,9) that is about 161 MJ/100 km. Also, the efficiency of battery charging is about 80%, electricity losses in Croatian distribution and transmission networks are about 12%, and average efficiency of all power plants in Croatia is about 60% [1, 15] (data for 2013, significantly depends on annual hydrology). We can calculate electric Golf total consumption that issues (46 MJ/100km / 0,8 / 0,88 / 0,6) which is about 109 MJ/100 km (primary energy input in electricity power plants). The result is that electric Golf total consumption amounts about 68% of diesel Golf total consumption in urban driving conditions, taking into consideration the Croatian power system data. Comparison of CO 2 emission Last 5 years in electricity supply of Croatian Power System average CO 2 emission is 182 g/kwh [20]. Amount is relatively small, because hydro power plants have significant participation and also there is a significant electricity import (electricity without emission on Croatian territory). For 12,7 kwh electric Golf outright consumption, with efficiency of battery charging of about 80%, from electricity outlet we need to take out (12,7 kwh / 0,8) that amounts 15,9 kwh. So, that causes average total emission of (15,9 kwh x 182 g/kwh) that is 2894 g/100 km of CO 2, respectively 28,9 g/km. Furthermore, on each million tons of processed oil, EU refineries emit average 40% tons of CO 2 [1]. Processing 3,8 l/100 km of diesel, with specific diesel mass of 0,83 kg/l and average efficiency of Croatian oil refineries of 90%, we have (3,8 x 0,83 / 0,9 x 0,4), that is 1,4 kg/100 km or 14 g/km of CO 2 emission. Adding outright emission, total diesel Golf CO 2 emission is (85+14)=99 g/km, that is much more than total electric Golf CO 2 emission of 28,9 g/km. The result is that electric Golf CO 2 total emission is about 29% of diesel Golf CO 2 total emission in urban driving conditions, accepting Croatian power system data. The obtained result is remarked by a fact that in countries with lower participation of hydro power plants and renewable energy sources in electricity production and with minimal electricity import, the difference is less in results of electric vehicle to its advantage, than results obtained for Croatian circumstances. For the example, in Germany Power System average CO 2 emission is about 600 g/kwh, threefold more then in Croatia. 3

4 Economical comparison Official market price in Croatia for electric E-Golf (battery included) basic model is about kn (tax included) and price for Golf TDI Blue Motion basic model is about kn (tax included). Currently, household electricity price in Croatia for night cheaper tariff is 0,56 kn/kwh (during winter from 9 PM to 7 AM and during summer from 10 PM to 8 AM) [15] and currently Eurodiesel BS price is about 7,6 kn/l (Croatia, March 2016). Due to battery charging efficiency which is about 80%, electric Golf real consumption from electricity outlet (12,7 / 0,8)= 15,9 kwh/100 km or (15,9 x 0,56)= 8,9 kn/100 km. Diesel Golf average urban consumption is 3,8 l/100 km or (3,8 x 7,6)= 28,9 kn/100 km. In repayment period of price difference between electric and diesel Golf that amounts kn, with premise that the maintenance costs are similar for both vehicles, electric Golf has to pass over km (too much for average, ordinary driver). Also, it is necessary to take into consideration 10 year period of battery operating cycle - how much will cost the new battery replacement after 10 year usage of electric vehicle (or maybe battery replacement period will be shorter of declared 10 year period)? With actual Croatian electric vehicle grants with maximal amount of kn, repayment period of price difference is shorter. In that case, electric Golf has to pass over km, which on yearly basis of ten years battery operating cycle period means km per year (3125 km/monthly). It is obvious that even with grants, range per year that justifies price difference is still over the usual range of ordinary drivers in Croatia and electric Golf with grants is still not competitive to diesel Golf. Green strategies and grants policies for electric vehicles in Croatia Croatian Environmental and Energy Efficiency Fund has prepared the Transportation emissions reduction program for the period , with direct citizens and companies grants for buying new electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Last year grants amounted kn for a new electric vehicle, kn for new plug-in hybrid vehicle with CO 2 emission <50 g/km, and kn for new hybrid vehicle with CO 2 emission <90 g/km. [3] During 2014 there were 440 approved grants, 379 for hybrid, 8 for plug-in hybrids, and 53 for electric vehicles, with total amount of 15,5 million kn. [3] Also, during 2015 there were 506 approved grants, 314 for hybrid, 13 for plug-in hybrids, and 179 for electric vehicles, with total amount of 18,5 million kn. [3] So, Croatia gave non-refundable grants for each electric (and hybrid) vehicle buyer with average amount of kn during 2014 and with kn during Is the described Croatian policy of grants for buying electric vehicles reasonable from energetic, ecological and economical point of view? Instead of grants policy that favor electric vehicles it will be better to have grants policy that favor hybrid vehicles, because in city drive conditions with slower speeds they mostly use electro drive, and petroleum engine is in optimal load mode, so petroleum fuel consumption and CO 2 emission are smaller. For Croatian Power System the most significant is that hybrid vehicles don t need electricity supply, because Croatian electricity import is about third. 4

5 Energetic point of view In the World 30% of total final energy is used in transport sector, most of which is used as liquid fuels. At the same time, 20% of total final energy is used like electricity, but the transport portion is negligible (electric train, tram, metro and electric cars perform less than 2% of total electricity demand). [1] So, if we imagine radical substitution of liquid fuels for road transport with electricity, about 2/3 of mentioned 30% of total final energy will need to be substituted with adequate portion of electric energy. Other 1/3 of 30% of total final energy will remain in liquid fuels for air and maritime transport. As mentioned, 20% of actual total final energy has to be replaced with adequate portion of electric energy. Electric vehicles consume only 1/3 of diesel engine vehicles energy consumption. With battery charging efficiency of about 80% and electricity distribution and transmission networks efficiency of about 88%, power plants have to produce (20% x 0,33/0,8/0,88) that amounts about 10%. Therefore, road transport with electric vehicles would demand another 10% of total final energy in the form of electricity. That extra energy consumption in the form of electric energy should increase the total participation of electricity to the 30%. In order to achieve that, today s electricity power system networks with electricity power plants in the world would have to increase about 50%! Seemingly reasonable path is progressive transition and usage of smaller urban city electric vehicles with significant CO 2 emissions reducing in city centre areas. Range of mentioned electric vehicles would be sufficient for average every day requirements, accepting battery charging during night hours. Croatian electricity power system is characterized by very low night loads compared to daily loads. Hence, electric vehicle battery charging during night hours could be beneficial for power system. But at the same time it will take effect on raising electricity import thus reducing oil import. It is necessary to develop smart grid solutions that would find optimum time for electric vehicle charging depending on electricity price level and power network load level. Also, the usage of electric vehicles charging stations exclusively on renewable energy sources is not appropriate, because security and price of that kind of electricity supply will be doubtful. On the other side, all electricity consumers in Croatia pay renewable energy fee, so all consumers deserve to use electricity from renewable energy sources on the same price level. Would it be fair that tourists in Croatia charge their electric vehicles with electricity from renewable energy sources, with favored electricity tariff, which all Croatian citizens pay through their monthly electricity bills? Luckily, there is no need to adapt households with electricity installation for electric vehicle charging, because for 7-hour night battery charging it is sufficient to have the usual AC 15A/220V outlet in garage and a rectifier. As well, for electric vehicles charging it is necessary to develop the whole network of charging stations, primarily in the cities and fast charging stations along the highways. Ecological point of view Concerning outright emission of CO 2, electric vehicle is surpassingly better from petroleum vehicle. On the other hand, total emission of CO 2 depends of power plants energy 5

6 mix in each country power system. With greater participation of renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants, total CO 2 emission is less. Forecasting greater renewable energy sources contribution in the future all around the world, we can expect that the usage of electric vehicle will contribute to global CO 2 emission reduction. In case of fast expansion of electric vehicles, it is possible to expect faster growth of electricity demand than the growth of renewable energy sources portion in the Croatian power production system. In this way, electric vehicles expansion could lead into total CO 2 emissions increase. During the last decade Croatia has had to import about 30% of electricity demand, but during dry years import was even over 40%. It is absolutely not reasonable to favor high growth of electric vehicles in Croatia, because electricity import has to increase. Croatia needs smart instead saucy green strategies, included adequately restrained electric vehicles policy with favored policy for hybrid vehicles. Economical point of view As mentioned, Croatia grants the purchase of only new electric, hybrid plug-in and hybrid vehicles with about kn per vehicle. It is not fair to give money of all Croatian taxpayers to a narrow group of citizens that have even more money to buy expensive electric vehicles, while the majority of citizens don't have enough money to buy even the smallest and cheapest petroleum vehicles. If the CO 2 emission is the main criteria for grants, why not grant also small petroleum city cars and petroleum cars with LPG (Liquid Petroleum Gas, widely available on petroleum stations across Croatia) that have less CO 2 emissions than many bigger hybrid cars? Another fact is that not one granted electric vehicle is produced in Croatia, so Croatian electric vehicles grants policy actually subsidizes foreign car industry and in this way drowns the possible development of custom vehicles industry! Regarding the green strategies area it is interesting that Croatian Environmental and Energy Efficiency Fund prepared the Program of Energy Renovation of Family Houses, for the period , with the main goal to reduce energy consumption in family houses and reduce CO 2 emission. For embedding renewable energy system like solar collector, citizens could get direct non-refundable grants from max kn (max. 40% of project value), to max kn (max. 80% of project value, if the house is situated in the area of special state concern). [3] Through subsidized embedding solar collectors the government expects to stimulate economy development by the engagement of local companies, craftsmen and specialists. From this viewpoint, grants for solar collector are 3 times lower than grants for electric vehicles ( kn opposite to kn, for areas outside areas of special state concern), which is not cost-effective for economy development, because embedding solar collectors could bring better contribution to development of local economy, employment growth, as well as the reduction of energy consumption in households (specially along tourist oriented Croatian seaside area). Also, we need to stress out that on each square meter of solar collectors three times more energy is gained than of photovoltaic square meter, which is excellent for water heating across tourist oriented Croatian seaside area. It would be reasonable to postpone or to reduce electric vehicles grants for more convenient Croatian budget, economy and electricity energy circumstances, when it will be sufficiently produced electricity by power plants in Croatia. 6

7 Perspectives on electric vehicles The unrealized goal in the USA is to have million electric vehicles on the roads by the end of USA spend billions of U$ on electric vehicles grants, even for electric vehicle buyers and also for electric vehicle producers. Until today, about electric vehicles have been sold in USA. Despite of about 30 brand new electric vehicle models introduced during 2015 with lots of discount prices, sales dropped for 6% in regard to 2014, with only sold electric vehicles (less than 1% of total 17,4 million sold vehicles). Also, sales of hybrid vehicles dropped for 15%, with sold hybrid vehicles, which is about 2,2% of total sold vehicles in the USA. High prices and short range of electric vehicles, and currently low fuel prices, are determined as the main barriers for better electric vehicles sales in USA. [5] Germany plan is to have million electric vehicles on the roads by end of However, at the end of 2015 on the German roads there were only electric vehicles and about hybrid vehicles over total of 44 million registered vehicles in Germany [12]. Significant portion of about alternative vehicles are vehicles with LPG. Further electric vehicles growth in Germany is planned to be achieved through electrification of companies transport fleets, where they overpass much more range through the year, because it was noted that citizens underrate electric vehicles and presently they don t have interest to buy it, as we demonstrated in electric VW Golf example. So far there are over 2500 charging stations across Germany. Also, Germany predicts that further battery development will be realized solely in Japan and South Korea. German plan is to invest about 700 million EU of tax revenue in electric vehicles sector, but they feel that the electric vehicles grants policy in EU countries is not the best solution because of many holes in countries budgets. [6] HEP (Croatian Electricity Company) has recognized European trends in sustainable development in energy and transportation sectors, and promotes the usage of electric vehicles through ELEN brand of charging stations and through infrastructure development project called emobility. Presently, during developmental phase of this commercial project, ELEN offers electric vehicles charging free of charge with ELEN RFID identification card, that reasonably is not viable for longer period, because it would cause the increase in electricity price in Croatia. HEP has a vision to become region leader in the electric vehicle supply area, through smart grid infrastructure development and electric vehicle charging services based on advanced power network concept. [15] Another important charging stations infrastructure developer in Croatia is HT (Croatian Telecom Company). At the end of 2015 in Croatia there were total of 71 charging stations with 119 connection points. By statistic data of Croatian vehicles center, at the end of 2015 there were totally 1,5 million registered cars on Croatian roads, with 1347 hybrid, 70 plug-in hybrid and 156 electric cars, that amounts only 0,1% registered cars in Croatia. [16] 7

8 (number of electric/hybrid/plug-in hybrid cars per year) Presentation of numbers of electric and hybrid cars registered in Croatia during period [16] City council of Karlovac has an interesting and instructive experience in electric vehicle usage. They lease small electric vehicle VW Up during the period from July 1 st to December 31 st But after 6 months of driving, they determined it was too expensive, so they gave up and returned the car. They said that electric vehicle is excellent for city drive, but with range of about 140 km and constrained number of charging stations in Croatia, car is not convenient for longer distances. They concluded that electric vehicle is still too expensive and not cost-effective in regard with common petroleum vehicle. [19] Also, it is worth mentioning that in Croatia there are two companies which develop electric vehicles, high technology oriented company Rimac-automobili with super sport electric car model Concept One (1088 HP, max. speed 355 km/h, acceleration 2,6 s/100 km/h, 650 V battery LiNiMnCoO 2, capacity 82 kwh) [17], and Dok-Ing with small city electric car with 2 seats, but both cars without serial production. Rimac Concept One super sport electric car [17] 8

9 In Croatian neighborhood, for the purpose of electric vehicles promotion, Hungary established regulation according to which from January 1 st 2017 every public garage must have at least one electric vehicle charging station on the 100 parking spaces. [18] Research taken during 2014 in Slovenia, got results that people would buy more electric vehicles if the price dropped more than 25% and oil price grew more than 25%. Taking into consideration that oil price currently dropped, we can expect a decrease in electric vehicles demand. Therefore, for electric vehicle commercial success, electric vehicles should be within people s budgets (at the moment they are too expensive, like in e-golf example). Also, electric vehicles must support people s mobility needs (currently, they cannot match petrol and diesel vehicles). Electric vehicle range is maybe sufficient for urban areas, but is not sufficient in rural areas where cars are the most popular transportation means and where peoples depends on them and need to drive greater distances. So, battery technology needs to provide the necessary longevity and also a common standard time for fast charging that will satisfy consumers demand. Hence, number of charging stations must increase sufficiently to compete with current number of petrol stations to make electric vehicles a viable option for roadway transport. Here we have bedazzled circle, because to have more charging stations we need to have more electric vehicles demanding them, thus justifying the investment. On the other hand, increasing number of electric vehicles demands more electricity, and that requires more power plants and more robust power grid. If this happen, huge growth in electric vehicles usage would has a big effect on electricity consumption and electricity network. The new electricity demand patterns will be created with electric vehicles possibilities to storage electricity. Only advanced electricity tariff policy for electric vehicles, connected with real-time price market, could bring some benefit to balance power system load. Electric vehicles have the potential to revolutionize how electricity is consumed, but consumer priorities are crucial to electric vehicles transition. Electric vehicles could be important impulse that will bring new companies into electricity supply business, perhaps investing not only in electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, but also in the commodity that keeps electric vehicles moving. Sure, there will be interesting niches for Croatian industry development. Conclusion Growth in electric vehicles usage in Croatia could create a significant financial impact on the national budget and roadway maintenance budget. The budget is funded also by fuel taxes, and it is an important issue to be addressed when electrical vehicles are granted. Don t forget that Croatian budget has significant deficit and grants for electric vehicles come from country budget, too. Through electric vehicle grants Croatia subsidizes foreign industry instead of supporting domestic industry. To support domestic industry it is necessary to promote restricted grants for domestic electrical vehicles production and charging stations production, instead of current practice of subsidizing imported electric vehicles and charging stations. Croatia also has to promote railway transport and invest into railways electrification and modernization by using EU founds, thus contributing to economy development and reducing emissions in transport sector. We recommended postponed mass electric vehicle usage in Croatia, until we have sufficient electricity production in power plants on Croatian territory, in order not to increase Croatian necessary current import of about 30-40% electricity demand. It is recommended to reasonably use electric vehicles in urban city centre areas with high traffic density to significantly reduce local CO 2 emissions, with the usage of charging stations 9

10 with smart metering applications. Also, it is recommended to use hybrid vehicles (a combination of electricity and petrol/diesel). For bigger roadway vehicles and for large (unlimited) distances, in environmental care manner, more reasonable is biofuels orientation (also based on EU Directive of renewable energy sources) and subsidize of domestic biofuels production. BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] M.Kalea: Elektroautomobil, elektroenergetsko motrište, 11. Međunarodno znanstveno-stručno savjetovanje Energetska i procesna postrojenja i 7. Međunarodni forum o obnovljivim izvorima energije, 2014., Rovinj, Hrvatska, [2] M.Stojkov, D.Gašparović, D.Pelin, G.Glavaš, K.Hornung, N.Mikulandra: Electric car history and components, 5 th International Natural Gas, Heat and Water Conference, PLIN 2014, Osijek, Croatia, [3] [4] [5] / Usprkos izdašnim subvencijama, u SAD-u pala prodaja električnih vozila [6] / Njemačka: ništa od velikih planova za e-automobile! [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] Das Märchen vom Markthochlauf der Elektroautos [12] de.statista.com/.../anzahl.der.elektroautos-in-deutschland [13] [14] EGE, Magazine for Energy, Economy, Ecology and Ethics, No. 4/2015, Zagreb, Croatia, Koliki je smisao poticanja električnih i hibridnih vozila u Hrvatskoj? [15] [16] [17] [18] / Mađarska ozbiljno kreće prema elektromobilnosti [19] / Karlovac u najam uzeo električni auto pa ga ubrzo vratio [20] Energija u Hrvatskoj, Ministarstvo gospodarstva i Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb,