A Concept for a Personal Rapid Transit System in the State of New Jersey

Transcription

1 A Concept for a Personal Rapid Transit System in the State of New Jersey Final Course Project for ORF 467 Transportation Systems Analysis, Fall Princeton University Professor Alain L. Kornhauser Project Contributors Atlantic Justin Karfo 09, Kai Ross 09 Bergen Rich Birge 08, Jayme Ranalli 08 Burlington Derrick Leung 08, Malik Saunders 08 Camden Pawel Buczak 10, Zach Woolridge 08 Cape May Justin Karfo 09, Kai Ross 09 Cumberland Michael Caswell 08, Justin Weinkle 08 Essex Philippe Kurzweil 08, Schuster Tanger 08 Gloucester Pawel Buczak 10, Zach Woolridge 08 Hudson Philippe Kurzweil 08, Schuster Tanger 08 Hunterdon Charles Hedlund 08, Shirley Li 08 Mercer Derrick Leung 08, Malik Saunders 08 Middlesex Kelsey Stallings 09, Kelly Stapleton 08 Monmouth Shriya Raghavan 09, Martin Valdez-Vivas 09 Morris Charles Hedlund 08, Shirley Li 08 Ocean Bryan Gartner 08, Fernando Gonzalez-Quintanill 08 Passaic Rich Birge 08, Jayme Ranalli 08 Salem Michael Caswell 08, Justin Weinkle 08 Somerset Chao Lu 08, Mengxi Ouyang 08 Sussex Margaret Orr 08, Karen Winterhof 09 Union Philippe Kurzweil 08, Schuster Tanger 08 Warren Margaret Orr 08, Karen Winterhof 09 Google Maps/Earth Tool Kit Aaron Linsky 08, Spencer Lucian 08, Irene Ndikumwenayo 09 County Integration Kyle Johnston 08 January 26, 2008

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3 Contents 1 Middlesex County Current Transportation Land Use Personal Rapid Transit Stations Trip Estimates Cost of PRT System Value of the PRT System and Next Steps i

4 ii CONTENTS

5 Chapter 1 Middlesex County Middlesex County is located in the heart of New Jersey, just south of New York City. It is bordered to the North by Union County and the Rahway River, to the East by New York City, Raritan Bay, and Monmouth County, to the South by Mercer County and to the West by Somerset County. Figure 1.1: Middlesex County, New Jersey Mddlesex is one of the fasted growing counties in New Jersey, having gained 154,000 residents between 1980 and 2000, and it was estimated at 786,971 residents in The population is denser in the north and northeast areas, while the southern part of the county is less populated. 1.1 Current Transportation Current public transportation in the county includes a few small airports, the two public ones being Monmouth Executive Airport and Old Bridge Airport. There are eleven NJ Transit rail lines, including the Hoboken Division (Morris & Essex, Montclair-Boonton, Main/Bergen, and Pascack Valley lines), the Newark Division (Northeast Corridor, North Jersey Coast, and Raritan Valley lines), and the Atlantic City rail line. These lines access

6 2 CHAPTER 1. MIDDLESEX COUNTY Figure 1.2: Middlesex County Population Density stations within the county. NJ Transit buses also access most of the county. Sea Streak Ferry operates a ferry service from South Amboy to Manhattan. Figure 1.3: Major Roadways in Middlesex County Middlesex is located in the largest transportation corridor in New Jersey, which includes major state roads I95 (New Jersey Turnpike), which runs NE to SW between New York and Philadelphia, and I287 (Garden State Parkway), as well as public transportation. Of the commuters in the county, about three-quarters drive alone to work, while 11% carpool and 9% take public transit. A little over half of residents work in Middlesex County and 10% commute to New York. 2 The northern half of the county has many more households with that do not have vehicles available. In New Brunswick on the west and Perth Amboy on the east side, between a quarter and a half of households do not have a vehicle available. In the southern half of the county, generally at least 95% of households have access to a vehicle. 1.2 Land Use Of the 375 square miles in Middlesex County, it breaks down into about half developed land and half undeveloped. Almost one quarter of the county is residential and one tenth is commercial and industrial. Major recreational areas include two shopping malls over 1 million square feet: Woodbridge Center Mall in Woodbridge and Menlo Park Mall in Edison. There are also many parks and open space areas, including Thompson Park in Monroe/Jamesbury, which totals 675 acres, and Johnson Park in Piscataway/Highland Park, which totals 473 acres. 2

7 1.2. LAND USE 3 Figure 1.4: Zero Vehicle Households in Middlesex Table 1.1: Land Use in Middlesex County Land Use Description Square Miles % of County Residential Low Density Residential Moderate Density Residential High Density Residential Total Commercial Urban Commercial Suburban Commercial Total Industrial Recreational Agricultural Forested Wetlands Land Area Total County Area Total Developed Land Total Undeveloped Land Total

8 4 CHAPTER 1. MIDDLESEX COUNTY Within Middlesex County, there are clusters of employment sites, including offices and industrial parks, along the Turnpike and also along US Route 1. Figure 1.5: Middlesex County Employment Locations The top 10 major employers in the county (serving 2000 or more employees) are Bristol-Myers Squibb Merrill Lynch & Company Prudential Insurance Company Telcordia Technology Johnson & Johnson Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital Silverline Building Products JFK Medical Center Raritan Bay Medical Center St Peters University Hospital Commuters travel to five sites of higher education within the county: Middlesex County College, Rutgers University, Princeton University s Forrestal Campus, University of Medicine and Dentistry, and DeVry Institute. Middlesex County contains 22 major high schools, as well as over 100 lower educational facilities. Some of the largest high schools, with enrollment over 2,000 students, are East Brunswick HS, Edison HS, JP Stevens HS, Old Bridge HS, Perth Amboy HS, Piscataway Township HS, and South Brunswick HS. 1.3 Personal Rapid Transit Our Personal Rapid Transit system was designed with 366 stations and 71 interchanges, connected by 690 sections of guideway, totaling almost 145 miles. The system will include just over 227,000 vehicles and serve almost 6 million trips per day with an average of 18 minutes per trip and 1.6 people per vehicle during peak hours. Because three-quarters of the commuting county population drives alone to work, a PRT system should be convenient for workers and provide accessibility to employment sites. The system was designed with stations added near major employment, industrial, and recreation sites and existing transportation sites. There are also stations in residential areas with the goal of stations within a half kilometer of most houses. The northern half of the county is more densely populated and so there are more stations there than in the southern half, which has more open space. The stations are connected with sections of guideway to create small loops that are then connected to other loops by interchanges. The guideway between stations travels in one direction around the loop and the interchanges are connected in both directions.

9 1.3. PERSONAL RAPID TRANSIT 5 Figure 1.6: Middlesex County PRT Table 1.2: Middlesex County PRT Statistics Statistic Number Number of Vehicles 227,023 vehicles Cost per vehicle $150,000 / vehicle Total Vehicle cost for your County $ 34,053 million # Daily Trips 5,873,481 daily trips Average Trip Time during peak hour minutes Empty Return Factor during peak hour 1.4 % daily trips during peak hour 15% Average Vehicle Occupancy during peak period 1.64 people / vehicle Average speed of cars on network 35 miles per hour Average station dwell time (peak time) 1 minute Average trip length 10 miles People in cars with people during peak times 2.3 people

10 6 CHAPTER 1. MIDDLESEX COUNTY 1.4 Stations The Middlesex county PRT network includes 366 stations, distributed as follows. Table 1.3: Middlesex County PRT Station Statistics # Stations # Trip Ends Avg. Trip Ends / Station housing 206 1,618,152 7, industry 94 2,565,700 27, office ,500 10, public 6 90,000 15, recreation 8 1, school ,639 15, shopping 9 1,150, , transport 12 47,600 3, Five stations are estimated to serve at least 200,000 trips per day. This includes the two largest shopping centers, both over 1 million square feet: Woodbridge Center Mall and Brunswick Square Mall, as well as three industrial centers: Jersey Center Metroplex, Turnpike Industrial Park, and Keystone. Jersey Center Metroplex includes 506 acres in Monmouth Junction and Turnpike Industrial Park consists of 210 acres in East Brunswick. Keystone includes 610 acres in Cranbury. These locations would require larger stations to handle this capacity and would provide a significant reduction in traffic. The industrial centers serve a large number of employees, most of whom commute alone in a car. Traveling to a shopping center is typically easier in a personal vehicle than in public transportation, because of having to carry purchases. A PRT system would provide the same potentially private travel and direct service to residential areas. These stations would be a key component of the success and profitability system. There are four parks that serve fewer than 300 trips per day. They include 473 acres at Johnson Park in Piscataway and 675 acres at Thompson Park in Monroe. Fords Park and William Warren County Park in Woodbridge total 144 acres and the last recreational area is Fairway Golf Centre in North Stelton. These recreational locations may not serve as many trips, but they are located in residential areas that may spill over. There is a lot of undeveloped land in Middlesex County and it is important to provide access to the open space areas like these recreation areas. The system connects with current transportation in the county, with stations at the two airports and the ten New Jersey Transit stations. There are also stations at all of the major Park and Ride lots in the county in order to provide access to travelers who might not live near a station or don t want to drive their entire commute. There are all stations at all major industrial parks and office complexes, including those containing the ten biggest employers. The stations aim to serve all residential areas by providing a station within a half mile of any house. This was more or less accomplished in the densely populated areas, as in the northern part of the county, but not always in the southern area, where the houses are more spread out. There are stations serving the five sites of higher education, while the distribution of residential and commercial stations seems to cover enough area to serve the high schools and lower schools. 1.5 Trip Estimates We estimated the number of productions and attractions through each of the stations, based on the land use of the surrounding area, using the following assumptions. Residential For all residential stations, the number of estimated trips is 4 times the approximate population within a half mile of the station, calculated using population density for each township. This is based on the national transportation average of 4.1 trips per person per day. Education For stations serving educational facilities, it is assumed that each student, faculty member, and staff member would make two trips through the station per day. Transportation We assumed that there were two daily trips through the station for each weekday boarding at the train stations, recorded by NJ Transit. We also assumed there were four daily trips made for each flight at the two airports.

11 1.6. COST OF PRT SYSTEM 7 Figure 1.7: Trip Distribution for Middlesex County Industrial and Office If there were available employment numbers, it is assumed that each worker used the stations twice each day. If the information was not available, estimates are based on the area of the buildings or the number of buildings (estimated by Google Earth), with the assumption of 500 employees per building, 200 employees per acre, or 100 employees per square feet. Recreation For shopping centers, we assumed 25 visitors per 100 square feet of mall space. For parks, we assumed that there was 1 visitor per 10 acres of open space, based on national park estimates, with the assumption that each visitor made 2 daily trips through the station. Hotels Trips were based on the assumption that the residents of each room made 4 daily trips and that half of the rooms were occupied. 1.6 Cost of PRT System The system will include just over 227,000 vehicles, at a cost of $150,000 per vehicle, 336 stations, at a cost of $2.5 million per station, and 145 miles of guideway, at a cost of $5 million per mile, for a total cost of almost $36 billion. The most costly portion of the system by far would be the vehicles required to transport all of the passengers. Initially it would be make more sense to purchase fewer vehicles because the system would most likely not start running at full capacity. As more travelers become accustomed to the PRT system, the number of vehicles could be increased to match. 1.7 Value of the PRT System and Next Steps Current public transportation in Middlesex County is limited to a few rail lines and bus service, but the majority of travel is on major roads. A Personal Rapid Transit system would be extremely valuable to Middlesex County because of both the number of households without cars and the number of commuters who drive alone to work. By

12 8 CHAPTER 1. MIDDLESEX COUNTY offering access to major employment sites and covering the developed land of the county with stations, our network would serve both of these groups. Our research and network, however, are only an initial look into the needs of the county. More in-depth study would need to be done into where stations would be most useful and where there is space for stations. One of the biggest flaws in our network is that there is not necessarily room for a station in each place we d like to locate one. We also assumed that virtually all travelers would use the system, which is not a fair assumption to make. The numbers would need to be adjusted based on actual use, which would not necessarily be uniform across the county. Located in a major transportation corridor in New Jersey, Middlesex sees a significant amount of automobile traffic. An effective PRT system would help to alleviate that traffic, while still being accessible and efficient for travelers. With fewer people in cars, there would also be a positive effect on pollution and air quality. Middlesex s roads are crowded and likely to get more crowded without an effective public transportation system. Middlesex s residential development increased by 9.4% from 1990 to 2000, greater than New Jersey as a whole, which increased development at 7.6%. The county is expected to grow at a rate of 8% between 2000 and 2010 and it lacks the capacity to handle these travelers. In order to clear up the traffic, the county needs to find a compromise between the crowded public transportation and the congested roads. A PRT vehicle would allow solitary travel, while also providing a convenient opportunity to share vehicles. The next step in Middlesex County transportation is a Personal Rapid Transit system.

13 List of Figures 1.1 Middlesex County, New Jersey Middlesex County Population Density Major Roadways in Middlesex County Zero Vehicle Households in Middlesex Middlesex County Employment Locations Middlesex County PRT Trip Distribution for Middlesex County

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15 List of Tables 1.1 Land Use in Middlesex County Middlesex County PRT Statistics Middlesex County PRT Station Statistics