LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODES. BY B. I. Singal, Ex Director General, Institute of Urban Transport

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1 LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODES BY B. I. Singal, Ex Director General, Institute of Urban Transport

2 WHY LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS The choice of the PT mode is a key decision for cities. The decision is mostly based on initial cost of the mode. The ongoing operating, maintenance, repairs and replacement cost are different for different modes. For example the life of rail transit vehicles is nearly 30 years and its capacity 3 times (240) compared to the city bus which has a life span of just 10 years and a capacity of 80 only. Thus bus will need to be replaced 3 times in the life span of a rail coach and provides only 1/3 rd capacity. Thus if these costs are not taken into account the choice may prove to be costly in the long run. Hence Life Cycle Cost of the mode should be integral to mode choice.

3 IUT STUDY HYPOTHETICAL CASE IUT study has calculated the life cycle cost (LCC) of five MRT modes namely Metro Rail, Mono Rail, Light Rail (separately for at grade and elevated), Bus Rapid Transit and City bus Services. A hypothetical case of a 20 km corridor having a phpdt of 15,000 was assumed for each mode. The LCC was calculated for 30 year life cycle for each mode. The results of the study were then applied to real life scenarios.

4 ESTIMATED CAPEX AND OPEX OF S no. Mode 1 Metro rail (elevated) 2 Monorail (elevated) 3 Light rail (elevated) 4 Light rail (At grade) 5 BRT (At grade) 6 BUS (At grade) VARIOUS MODES Capex Rs cr. per Route km ( ) Opex Rs. Crore per Route km per annum ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (Incl. bus) ( ) (Incl. bus) ( ) SOURCE CAPEX DMRC, Hyderabad and Kochi O&M time series of DMRC. CAPEX Kozhikode, Delhi and Mumbai O&M first year of Kozhikode CAPEX Delhi LRT escalated to O&M based on Elevated Monorail CAPEX Delhi LRT escalated to O&M based on Monorail CAPEX Ahmedabad, Rajkot O&M DTC, BEST, BMTC, MTC + OCC CAPEX as per WGUT for 12 th FYP O&M Cost for DTC, BEST, BMTC, MTC

5 OTHER ASSUMPTIONS HEADWAY Rail based modes; 2.5 to 3 minutes Bus services; 1 minute BRT 0.6 minutes STATION SPACING Metro Rail, 1 km Monorail, Light Rail and BRT; 750 m Bus services; 500 m UNIT COSTS Cost of of rail coaches at Rs. 10 Crore per coach The cost of a depot for every 50 buses, Rs. 8 Crore, One workshop for every 250 buses at Rs. 20 crores. The depots and workshops costs are inclusive of land acquisition and machinery costs.

6 LCC FOR THE HYPOTHETICAL CASE Systems Number of Seats LCC (NPV in INR Crore) LCC per seat (in INR Lakh at NPV for 30 years Metro Rail 25,300 7, Monorail 27,264 7, LRT (Elevated) 28,072 6, LRT (At Grade) 30,008 4, BRTS 29,600 6, Buses 33,040 5, It is evident from the above table that LRT (At Grade) has the least life cycle cost per seat of Rs lakh. The LCC of Metro rail is high because it is a high capacity mode, much beyond the assumption of phpdt made for the hypothetical case.

7 APPLICATION TO REAL LIFE SCENARIO In real life, there are two limitations, the impact of which on LCC needs to be included; The dependence of the cost (capital and O&M) of a mode on the design demand level. The capacity limitation of each mode The hypothetical case assumes same demand level for all modes without capacity limitation Therefore in the first instance, the impact of the design demand level on LCC of each mode has been examined.

8 Design deman d level PHPDT EFFECT OF DEMAND LEVEL ON Metro Rail Mono rail LIFE CYCLE COST LRT Elevated LRT (At- Grade) BRT City Bus servic e LCC reduces in all cases as the design demand level increases LCC of City bus is lowest; has limited capacity LRT (At grade) has the lowest LCC of all modes at all demand levels LCC of Elevated LRT is less than BRT above 15,000 Metro rail at all levels Monorail is cheaper than Metro rail up to Metro rail is cheaper than Monorail above 15000

9 APPLICATION TO REAL LIFE SCENARIO In actual practice, all modes have an upper limit to capacity (phpdt); Bus 5000 BRT Monorail LRT (At-grade) LRT (Elelvated) Metro rail > Hence the findings of the hypothetical case need to be moderated to take this into account

10 IMPACT OF CAPACITY LIMITATIONS USAGE PHPDT Metro Rail Mono rail LRT Elevated LRT (At- Grade) BRT Buses Following can be concluded. Up to modal capacity the LCC of City bus service is the lowest LRT at-grade is less than that of BRT LRT Elevated is less than that of the Metro rail Monorail is less than Metro rail Metro rail is low at high demand level

11 CONCLUSIONS City bus service is appropriate in corridors with low demand level up to 5000 phpdt In high demand level corridors beyond phpdt, Metro rail is the only proven choice Between 5000 and phpdt, choice lies in three modes; LRT, Monorail and BRT; A detailed alternates analysis is needed Between and phpdt, elevated LRT is perhaps the only proven choice

12 THANKYOU