Colombo Urban Transport Study - Stage 2 Working Paper 25: A Masterplan for the Development of Transport in the Colombo Metropolitan Region

Transcription

1 Colombo Urban Transport Study - Stage 2 Working Paper 25: A Masterplan for the Development of Transport in the Colombo Metropolitan Region Amal S. Kumarage, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka May 1999

2 JOB NUMBER: AF6276 DOCUMENT REF: AF6276/ 0 Draft (Internal) AK Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Revision Purpose Description WS ATKINS CONSULTANTS LIMITED

3 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ISSUES & CONSTRAINTS IN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN CMR ESTIMATES OF TRANSPORT DEMAND & SUPPLY IN THE CMR A STRATEGY FOR PLANNING TRANSPORT IN THE CMR INSTITUTIONAL REQUIRMENTS FOR IMPLEMENTING A TRANSPORT MASTERPLAN FOR CMR i

4 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.1: TRANSPORT CORRIDORS AND URBAN CENTRES IN CMR FIGURE 1.2:DESIRE LINES FOR PRIVATE VEHICULAR TRAVEL IN CMR FIGURE 1.3: DESIRE LINES FOR GOODS VEHICULAR TRAVEL IN CMR FIGURE 1.4: DESIRE LINES FOR RAIL PASSENGER TRAVEL IN CMR FIGURE 1.5:CMRSP DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FIGURE 1. 6:ALTERNATE TRUNK ROAD PROPOSED BY RDA FIGURE 1.7:PROPOSED INTER-REGIONAL TRANSPORT AXIS FIGURE 1. 8:ALTERNATE PROPOSALS FOR A LIMITED ACCESS ROAD NETWORK FIGURE 1.9: MAJOR ROAD PROPOSALS IN CMR FIGURE 1.10: MAJOR RAILWAY PROJECTS IN CMR FIGURE 2.1: HIGH MOBILITY CORRIDOR FIGURE 2.2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF VEHICLE FLEET FIGURE 2.3:OWNERSHIP RATES BY VEHICLE TYPE & GDP FIGURE 2.4:PUBLIC TRANSPORT & VEHICLE OWNERSHIP FIGURE 2.5:VEHICLE OWNERSHIP RATES IN CMR FIGURE 2.6: VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY INCOME PER CAPITA (US$) FIGURE 2.7: SHARE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT & POPULATION DENSITY FIGURE 2.8:LOAD FACTORS IN BUSES ( ) FIGURE 3.1:PER CAPITA MOBILITY BY MODE ( ) FIGURE 4.1:VARIATION IN TRAVEL SPEEDS ON MAJOR CORRIDORS FIGURE 4.2: FLOW AND SPEED VARIATION ON GALLE ROAD CORRIDOR FIGURE 4.3: PROPOSED SUBURBAN RAILWAY SYSTEM FIGURE 4.4: POSSIBLE BUS LANE SYSTEM FIGURE 4.5: PROPOSED SYSTEM OF LRT ROUTES (RADIAL & CIRCULATORY) FIGURE 4.6: PROPOSED INTER-REGIONAL ROAD NETWORK LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1:HIGH MOBILITY CORRIDORS TABLE 2.2:VEHICLE OWNERSHIP PER CAPITA (1998) TABLE 2.3:VEHICLE OWNERSHIP SATURATION LEVELS WITH URBAN PARAMETERS TABLE 2.4:CRITICAL PARAMETERS DETERMINING SUSTAINABLE VEHICLE OWNERSHIP IN CMR TABLE 3.1: POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS IN CMRSP (000 S) TABLE 3.2: ANTICIPATED GROWTH OF TRAVEL IN CMR TABLE 3.3: PASSENGER CAPACITIES IN PUBLIC TRANSPORT ii

5 TABLE 3.4: CAPACITIES AND FRICTION FACTORS APPROPRIATE FOR SRI LANKA TABLE 3.5:MAXIMUM & DESIRABLE CAPACITIES OF SRI LANKAN ROADS TABLE 4.1: DAILY PASSENGERS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT THE CMC BOUNDARY ( ) 4-1 TABLE 4.2: DAILY FLOWS AT THE CMC BOUNDARY AND MODAL SPLITS (1995) TABLE 4.3: FLOWS, TRAVEL TIMES AND MODAL SHARES ON MAJOR CORRIDORS TABLE 4.4:ANTICIPATED GROWTH RATES FOR PASSENGERS ON RADIAL CORRIDORS TABLE 4.5:PAX CARRYING EFFICIENCY AT DIFFERENT BUS TRANSPORT SHARES TABLE 4.6:MAXIMUM PASSENGERS PER HOUR ON RAIL TRACKS (BOTH DIRECTIONS) TABLE 4.7: PASSENGER CAPACITY BY CORRIDOR AND MODE OF TRANSPORT TABLE 4.8: ANTICIPATED GROWTH RATES FOR ORBITAL ROUTES TABLE 4.9: ORBITAL ROADS APPROPRIATE FOR WIDENING & REHABILITATION AS TWO LANE ROADS iii

6 1. INTRODUCTION A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF TRANSPORT & REGIONAL GROWTH 1.1 Colombo has been the Primate City in modern Sri Lanka. This has also meant that Colombo has been a transportation terminus with the seaport and, more recently, the airport providing the interface for interchange between local and foreign transport of both goods and passengers. 1.2 Moreover, the availability of suitable human resources and the density of development close to the Port of Colombo have led to the vast majority of industries locating within one hours travel distance from the port. This and the development of Colombo as the administrative capital and primary commercial centre, have formed the basis of the growth of Colombo and its environs. 1.3 Without a planned strategy to accommodate such urban development, this growth was directed mostly along the existing road and rail system. This transport network which was extensive and covered all nine administrative provinces, had a strongly radial orientation with Colombo City as the hub. This was initially developed during the colonial period for administrative and trade needs of that time. Transport Corridors 1.4 This is well illustrated in Figure 1.1, which shows sections of roads in the CMR that presently, carry over 20,000 vehicles per day. The same figure also shows the four rail lines, which in most instances are in close proximity to these roads, thus forming radially oriented road-rail transport corridors. This was probably the single most influential factor, leading to the rapid urban growth propagating along the radial transport corridors over the last several decades. In fact, Figure 1.1 clearly shows that all the urban centres within the CMR having a population of over 100,000 are located along these corridors. 1.5 The origin of the present Day City, which began as a military enclave in the 16th century, has undergone gradual expansion since then. Historically, the transport needs of the region were primarily met by non-motorised means till the middle of the 19th Century. With the development of the railways at this time, speedier motorised 1-1

7 transport became available. This was followed by the development of the highways in the early part of this century. 1.6 The further development of Colombo as an administrative and commercial centre, strengthened with this improved level of mobility, quickly led to the development of the suburbs of Colombo from wherein rail based commuting took place. This was later supplemented with bus transport along the same corridors. This gradually led to Colombo developing as a metropolitan area, with the surrounding suburbs becoming an integral part of this metropolitan agglomeration. 1.7 Most of this agglomeration took place only during the last two decades. The only travel corridor that was to be developed during this period was the Sri Jayawardenapura-Kotte corridor as a result of the relocation of Parliament and the development of land in that area. Transport Patterns 1.8 The present day transport demand patterns in the CMR are shown by the travel desire lines in Figures 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4. They are largely radial in nature indicating the existence of a strong core within the city. The thick lines indicate that travel is highest along these well-developed corridors. However, recent changes in trends of land use within the city, have indicated that these patterns are changing as a result of radial flow patterns becoming too large for the existing systems. There is evidence from traffic counts between 1995 and 1999 that some corridors have experienced zero growth. During the same time, some orbital (circular) type roads have experienced higher than average growth. 1-2

8 Figure 1.2: Transport Corridors and Urban Centres in CMR 1-3

9 Traffic Congestion 1.9 According to the TransPlan Model (UoM, 1998) average traffic speeds within the CMR have dropped to around 22 kms/hr. The typical corridor speed is around kms/hr within Colombo City and increases with distance from the city, to around 45 kms/hr at the periphery of the CMR. The typical stop/go traffic conditions, lack of discipline and enforcement, all contribute to the general perception of inadequate travel facilities within the CMR. There are also concerns of poor air quality and lack of parking spaces, both resulting from increasing vehicle circulation within the city centre and its immediate environs The cost of traffic congestion, defined as occurring when average speeds of 30 km/hr cannot be maintained, has been estimated at Rs.11.5 bn. per annum (Appendix A) These factors have combined to encourage a significant proportion of businesses to begin to move away from the city centre. There is also an increasing demand for higher priced housing in the form of apartments to be located closer to the city centre. However, the fact that no alternative commercial core strong enough to attract such development has emerged elsewhere in the region, means that the demand for growth in Colombo can be expected to continue over the next two decades. 1-4

10 Figure 1.2:Desire Lines for Private Vehicular Travel in CMR 1-5

11 Figure 1.3: Desire Lines for Goods Vehicular Travel in CMR 1-6

12 Figure 1.4: Desire Lines for Rail Passenger Travel in CMR 1-7

13 The CMRSP Land Use Proposals 1.12 The population of the CMR was 4.6 million in Although this was 25% of the population, the CMR amounted to only 5.6% of the land area of the country. This population is estimated to increase to 6.5 million by the year During this same period, it is anticipated that the share of urban population of the CMR would increase from 51% to 74% The Colombo Metropolitan Regional Structure Plan (CMRSP) is described as a rational land-use and infrastructure strategy to facilitate a planned development of the CMR. In this context, it has identified transport facilities alongside other infrastructure required to achieve the planned development. Capital Territory 1.14 The structure plan further envisages the development of the Capital Territory, by combining the existing City of Colombo as the banking and financial centre and Greater Kotte as the administrative capital. Growth Centres 1.15 The plan also proposes the development of six Growth centres in Gampaha, Negombo, Biyagama, Homagama, Horana and Matugama. These are centres, which at present already experience a higher than average population growths rate primarily due to the availability of land Colombo City, which had a population of 638,700 in 1996, is expected to grow by 1.38% p.a. to 774,400 by The other existing urban centres of over 100,000 population are Kotte, Battaramulla, Negombo, Gampaha, Homagama, Dehiwela-Mt- Lavinia and Moratuwa. The growth centres chosen in the CMRSP for the formation of six satellite towns is expected to grow by 3.66% p.a. (on average) from a combined population of 875,000 to 1,461,000. Figure 1.5 shows the location of the proposed Growth centres with respect to the already large centres along the corridors. With this development the centre of Colombo as a transport zone is anticipated to shift eastwards The CMRSP has proposed the above land use changes after considering, trends in urban sprawl, conversion of land-use, transport costs, industrial locations and the potential for providing infrastructure facilities for land use development. A land use transport strategy 1-8

14 1.18 The CMRSP notes that incompatible land use and ribbon development along the principal trunk roads in the region has led to traffic congestion and delays in passenger travel. As a result, the cost component of transport in the production of goods and services is rapidly escalating in the region. The combined land usetransport strategy adopted in the CMRSP aims to provide for more space efficient modes of transport and action programs to derive optimum benefits from urban development in the region The CMRSP proposals to develop the core area as mixed high-density land use and to facilitate the planned formation of six satellite city centres (Figure 1.5) is a pragmatic approach. The fact that these six cities are chosen on the basis of centres experiencing rapid growth at the present times give it added strength. The proposals are based on these centres being well served with transport access, thus providing a boost to the natural growth pattern In the background of the CMRSP, which offers a land use development framework, an appropriate transport strategy can be formulated The transport sector objectives for the CMR are identified in the CMRSP as: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) to provide a mobility (higher speed) oriented limited access road network for inter-regional transport requirements for travel through the CMR; to redesign of the existing corridors of the CMR by improving the facilities and quality of public transport, in order to maximize limited transport right of way within the region and thereby to increase speeds and flow along these corridors, so as to ensure a balance between mobility and access; to provide improved access between the under developed areas of the CMR and peripheral growth centres, and industrial centres in order to facilitate their rapid development as planned cities and to develop a multi-modal transport system for the inner city (within CMC) that will be socially acceptable, economically viable and environmentally sustainable. Figure 1.5:CMRSP Development Strategy 1-9

15 1-10

16 ADDRESSING THE TRANSPORT OBJECTIVIES IN THE CMRSP 1.22 Several proposals exist for addressing the objectives set out in the CMRSP. These are discussed as follows: Roads Limited Access Inter-Regional Road Network 1.23 Sri Lanka does not have any limited access roads at present. The essential features of such a high mobility road network should be speed and safety. The level of mobility required for a country of the size of Sri Lanka does not necessarily warrant high speed rail or domestic air travels for the foreseeable future. A modern highway network designed for 120 km/hr speeds can serve Sri Lanka s long-distance travel needs quite adequately. However, for such speeds to be achieved, they should necessarily be access controlled roads. In view of the high cost of constructing such roads, they should be planned in such a manner that an efficient and optimal network is formulated. The planning for these should then be based on their impacts on a range of issues concerning national development i.e; regional issues of economic growth, human development growth, urbanisation, poverty alleviation, recreational, cultural and tourist attractions and regional integration There are at present several proposals for the development of such a limited access (expressway) system of roads The first of these belongs to the Road Development Authority. Originally called a Proposal for an Alternative Trunk Road Network, this was based on the concept of a system of a ring roads and radials closely following similar strategies followed in other parts of the world (e.g. the Motorway system in London) in the 1970s and 1980s. Figure 1.6 shows these highways as originally proposed (RDA, 1990). They are based on highway connectivity and existing traffic patterns rather than potential land use development as a basis for consideration. Moreover, urban traffic management issues or considerations of other transport modal developments have not been considered. The following developments have taken place since then. Colombo-Katunayake Expressway (CKE): The Colombo- Katunayake Expressway is presently being designed as a 25 km long four lane highway from the immediate north of the New Kelani Bridge at Peliyagoda to Katunayake. This trace has been relocated from the original location of being east of the A3 highway to be essentially on its western side. Its present trace would now approach the Bandaranaike International Airport from the west (or 1-11

17 seaside). The CKE is at design stage. The Cabinet has in August 1998 approved to proceed with the preparatory work of the CKE and to implement the project as a Turnkey Project by the RDA/BII. More recently, in January 1999 the Cabinet approved the procedure for calling tenders as an Alternative BOT proposal. This is scheduled for commencement in December 1999 with completion targeted for June

18 Figure 1. 6:Alternate Trunk Road proposed by RDA 1-13

19 Southern Highway: The Southern Highway is presently being designed as a four-lane highway from Kottawa to Kurudugahahetekma, in Galle District a distance of 50 kms. This will then extend to Galle and Matara a further distance of 80 kms as a two or four lane highway. It is anticipated that the ADB and OECF would jointly fund this project to connect during Completion is estimated to be in Outer Circular Highway: The Outer Circular Road (OCH) which would provide the northern connection to the Southern Highway is presently under a feasibility study funded by JICA. Different options are under consideration with and without the southernmost part and different northward traces. The feasibility study is to be completed in November Road to Kandy: Initial pre-feasibility studies are being undertaken for a new limited access road to Kandy. Baseline Road (and Extension): Baseline Road from Kelanitissa Roundabout to High Level Road at Kirullapone is under progress. The construction of the 1st phase up to Borella is to be competed by December The detailed design of the 2nd phase is in progress. Acquisition for the 3rd phase of extending the Baseline Road to Ratmalana is also in progress. This entire section is to be designed as a six-lane highway without access control. Even though this may not be an access-controlled highway, it is expected to perform an important connection to the network of limited access roads The CMRSP proposal put forward by the UDA, closely follow the RDA proposals for a limited access highway network. In this case, the regional development potential and the multi-modal transport strategies have also been considered. A spinal-network of limited access highways has been proposed incorporating the basic RDA proposals as shown in Figure 1.7. The objectives of this proposal are to provide; fast inter-regional travel from Colombo to other regional centres; fast intra-regional travel through the CMR, which is the industrial centre, without unnecessarily congesting the existing road network and rapid development of the satellite cities identified as growth centres for the planned growth of the CMR The following strategic road proposals are proposed in the CMRSP. 1-14

20 North South Highway Axis: The CMRSP proposal for the North South Highway is a composite of three RDA proposals for the Southern Highway, Outer Circular Road and the original Katunayake Expressway. These have been combined to develop a land use-transport development strategy incorporating the six satellite cities in the CMR as growth centres and the development of the lands in their vicinity. In the CMRSP proposal, the northward link extends as far as the BIA airport at Katunayake. The CMRSP does not propose a circular link to Galle Road in the southern end. Baseline Road: The CMRSP also suggests a spinal-network forming the Baseline Road as the inner north-south artery with the NSH forming the outer artery. The inner artery serves the CMC area and the Kotte area (defined as the Capital City area in the CMRSP). The outer artery serves the growth centres within the CMR and provides the mobility required for the rapid development of the proposed satellite towns, which are well connected by the NSH. North East Expressway (NEE) Axis: The CMRSP has further identified a north-east axis in the direction of Kurunegala to provide connection from the northern end of Baseline Road to the Central Province as well as the North Western, North Central and North Eastern Provinces. South Eastern Expressway (SEE) Axis: A south-eastern axis is also identified connecting the Southern end of the Baseline Road to the Sabaragamuwa, Uva and Eastern Provinces. 1-15

21 Working Paper 25: A Masterplan for the Development of Transport in the CMR Figure 1.7:Proposed Inter-Regional Transport Axis 1-16

22 1.28 The basic system of limited access highways as proposed by the RDA and UDA has been investigated in Kumarage (1998) from a perspective of poverty reduction, human development and rapid economic growth on the basis of a limited access road network of providing connectivity between the hierarchy of urban centres. It identifies a basic network of kms (Figure 1.8) as a first step to be connected to the existing A Class network in the areas of low population density. This proposal places emphasis on; extending the Industrial Area presently confined mostly to the Colombo and Gampaha districts to the Puttalam, Kurunegala, Kegalle, Ratnapura, Kalutara and Galle districts by reducing travel time from Colombo to these areas; providing access to regional centres and areas of natural and cultural resources to facilitate travel & transport based development and providing access to areas presently lagging behind in human development and economic development. Other Major Road Projects 1.29 The following major road projects in the CMR as shown in Figure 1.9 are under various stages of construction. Marine Drive: Detailed Designs for a two lane at grade highway along the coastline rail track has been completed. Acquisition is in progress. Some sections including bridges have been completed. Total length is about 5 kms from Kollupitiya to Ramakrishna Road, Wellawatte. No date of completion is given, as acquisition for many sections is still incomplete. Extension of Duplication Road: Detailed designs and acquisition has been completed. Construction is in progress and is to be completed in This will be a short length of two-lane highway of 600 metre length. But it will cross the city boundary to Dharmarama Road on the Galle Road Corridor 1-17

23 Figure 1. 8:Alternate Proposals for a Limited Access Road Network 1-18

24 Figure 1.9: Major Road Proposals in CMR 1-19

25 Railways World Bank Projects: The following projects are in progress with World Bank funding. In these projects, roads are to be rehabilitated without widening such that two lane sub standard roads with asphalt concrete surfaces would be constructed. These are: WB/3/2; Katunayake-Nittambuwa (B208, B445), Biyanwila- Ganemulla (B058), Seeduwa-Udugampola (B400, B604), Negombo Township Roads (B246), [Total 84.3 kms] is nearing completion. WB/3/5: Kaduwela-Hanwella (A110), Peliyagoda-Kadawata (A001), Dehiwela-Maharagama (B094), Navinna-Mirihana (B291), Hendala- Hunupitiya (B151), Katubedda-Piliyandala (B204, B295), Wattala- Mahara (B460), Kirindiwita-Ganemulla (B226), Isurupaya-Pannipitiya (B047) [Total 56.4 kms] is expected to be completed by end of Sri Lanka - Japan Friendship Bridge (Phase II): This project will provide additional two lanes of bridge capacity to the northern end of the CMC across the Kelani Bridge. This work which commenced in 1998 is expected to be completed in Mattakkuliya Bridge: A further two-lane crossing of the Kelani Bridge at Mattakkuliya is planned. This is presently at design stage Several railway proposals have been made. These are listed below and shown in Figure Double Tracking of Railways: Double tracking of the railways is in progress from Panadura to Kalutara. The section between Ragama to Negombo has been included in the Six-Year Development Plan. Loop Railway: Proposed in the CMR Structure Plan for development of the Core Area of the CMR. This proposal is yet to be studied. Railway Electrification: A number of studies have been conducted for electrifying the suburban railways. The economic and financial feasibility is yet to be fully determined. Light Rapid Transit: Expressions of interest have been called by the CMC and UDA for BOT projects of providing LRT within the CMC area and in the 1-20

26 suburbs. However, there has been little progress in this project in recent months. Improvements to the KV Line: Approval has been obtained jointly by the SLR and UDA to improve a section of track closer to Avissawella. Improvements to Suburban Services: The SLR in its Six Year Development Plan has stated its objective for increasing the suburban rail patronage from 10% to 20% over the next four years. New railway rolling stock in the forms of 15 new Diesel Multiple Units are expected to be added to the suburban service by end of

27 Figure 1.10: Major Railway Projects in CMR 1-22

28 2. ISSUES & CONSTRAINTS IN TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN CMR ISSUES ADDRESSED IN CMRSP Land Use Structure 2.1 The CMRSP has addressed one of the most important aspects affecting transport development in the region, namely, the absence of a linkage between land-use development and transport. Two aspects of this current practice has given rise to particular problems of: (i) (ii) (iii) ribbon development along the main trunk roads (transport corridors); under-utilisation of land between the radial corridors and the lack of facilities to sustain an increasing vehicle ownership and use in Colombo City. 2.2 In addressing these issues, the CMRSP has proposed a new land-use structure. Satellite cities are proposed as growth centres to encourage development away from the corridors to presently under developed areas between corridors. Inter-Regional Road Network 2.3 The importance of an access controlled inter-regional highway network has been highlighted in the CMRSP. The north-south axis; the north-east axis and the southeast axis together with the Baseline Road are given as the basic building blocks required for such a network. A number of projects and programs listed as PA1 to PA9 have been given in the CMRSP. The Colombo- Katunayake Expressway; Southern Highway; Outer Circular Highway are considered priority projects of the Government. While these roads are still not been planned as a network, the requirement for such roads has been recognised. High Mobility Corridors 2.4 The concept of High Mobility Corridors (HMCs) was introduced in the CMRSP to achieve the need for reasonably fast mobility between Colombo as the core area and the CMR as the surrounding catchment. This is vital to facilitate the fast movement of 2-1

29 commuters between residences and workplaces. It is equally important for the movement of industrial goods between the industries scattered throughout the CMR and the Port and trading houses in Colombo. In the CMRSP, eight (08) corridors given in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1 were identified as HMCs. 2.5 Some measures itemised as PC1 to PC15 required for the conversion on these roads to High Mobility Corridors have been discussed in the CMRSP. Table 2.1:High Mobility Corridors A1 : Colombo Kandy Road Up to Kadawatha interchange with NSE (18 kms) A2 : Colombo Galle Road Up to Panadura (28 kms) A3 :Colombo Negombo Rd Up to Ja-Ela interchange with NSE (20 kms) A4 : High Level Road Up to Kottawa interchange with NSE (22 kms) B5 : Colombo Horana Road Up to Polgasowita interchange with NSE (20 kms) B10 : Low Level Road Up to Kaduwela interchange with NSE (15 kms) A1sp : Parliament Road Up to Talangama interchange with NSE (15 kms) : Baseline Road Improving & Extending of road up to Attidiya (8 kms) 2-2

30 Figure 2.1: High Mobility Corridor 2-3

31 ISSUES REQUIRING FURTHER ATTENTION 2.6 Further to the initial land use-transport policy and development strategy set out in the CMRSP, the following specifically transport related issues need to be addressed further. These issues, which have been referred to in the CMRSP, are discussed in greater depth in this paper in order to formulate transport policy and programs. They are analysed against the background of the CMRSP proposals. These issues are: The Increase in Vehicle Ownership; Deteriorating Public Transport and Methods of Improving it Quality and Introduction of New Modes of Mass Transit. Increase in Vehicle Ownership 2.7 Vehicle ownership is associated with increase in incomes. It is also represents an important feature of choice of travel. Increases in vehicle ownership, requires more road space, parking space and measures to control air pollution etc. Therefore, vehicle ownership in Sri Lanka and particularly that of the CMR needs to be understood in order to properly plan the levels of vehicle ownership that can be sustained. 2.8 As shown in Figure 2.2, the growth rate of the vehicle fleet in Sri Lanka has had many variations. The period prior to 1977 had relatively lower rate of increase in vehicle ownership due to restrictions on importation. The opening up of the economy and the release of the suppressed demand led to a peak growth rate during The period between 1988 and 1991 saw another peak mainly resulting from the transfer of passengers from deteriorating bus services and the reduction of duties for motor cycles. 2-4

32 2.9 Vehicle Ownership is usually analysed in terms of vehicles per 1000 persons. Figure 2.3 shows the annual growth rate of ownership by vehicle type as against the growth rate of the GDP. This shows that ownership of freight vehicles and buses have had the most consistent growth of around 3.6% and 1.8% p.a. respectively. Four wheeler private vehicles which marginally reduced in ownership rate up to 1977, has had an increase of around 5.6% p.a. since then. However the most phenomenal growth has occurred in the ownership of motor cycles. This has averaged a growth rate of 15% from However, the curve with respect to ownership of motor cycles shows a typical flattening of the curve (an S curve) which is what is expected when it is not an end product for the consumer. The ownership of motor cycles is therefore expected to reach saturation levels early, with private four wheelers continuing to increase Table 2.2 gives the present rates of vehicle ownership per 1000 persons in Sri Lanka, CMR, Colombo District and the CMC respectively. Vehicle ownership is calculated on annual vehicle licenses issued. It includes all operational motorised transport including motor cycles, which constitute more than half the fleet at the present time. It excludes vehicles estimated to be no longer in service. It can be seen that overall vehicle ownership is around 74 vehicles per 1000 persons for all of Sri Lanka. This increases to 97 per 1000 in the CMR. In Colombo District, this increases further to 141 per In Colombo City, this is highest at 262 per Of course, this latter figure is slightly inflated by the fact that many vehicles operating in other parts of the country are known to be licensed in Colombo City. 2-5

33 Figure 2.2: Annual Growth Rates of Vehicle Fleet Annual Vehicle Growth Rate in Sri Lanka ( ) Growth Rate (%) Year 2-6

34 Table 2.2:Vehicle Ownership per Capita (1998) Area Estimated Vehicle Ownership (Per 1000 persons) Motor Cycles Ownership Level by Vehicle Type (Percentage of Vehicle Fleet) Three Wheelers Cars, & Vans Freight Bus CMC (25%) 31 (12%) 113 (43%) 45 (17%) 8 (03%) Colombo District (32%) 16 (11%) 56 (40%) 20 (14%) 4 (03%) CMR (41%) 9 (09%) 32 (33%) 13 (13%) 3 (03%) Sri Lanka (1996) (51%) 2 (03%) 21 (29%) 12 (16%) 1 (02%) 2.11 The fact that the CMR will continue to be developed as the most commercial and industrial region in the country will mean that the incomes in the CMR will be higher than the rest of the country. The incomes within the CMC would be expected to be the highest. This feature is expected to continue in to the foreseeable future, until largescale regional development programs change the present income distributions During this period, it is anticipated that vehicle saturation, observed in many other cities world wide, would also occur within the CMR, starting from the CMC areas. Saturation would be reached when the physical capacities of a given area cannot sustain the vehicular (traffic) activities in that area. This level of traffic activity, which will be referred to as the sustainable level of traffic, has two basic attributes that are important for consideration in a transport master plan. These are (i) (ii) the level of vehicle ownership at which sustainability of the CMR and its subregions will be exceeded and if no change in action is anticipated, the duration, for such a level to be reached. Sustainable Level of Vehicle Ownership 2.13 Table 2.3 shows the typical vehicle ownership levels measured in vehicles per 1000 persons, from 19 different cities across the world (Newman and Kenworthy, 1989). It shows the corresponding land use density, incomes and performance of public transport associated with those levels of ownership. 2-7

35 2.14 On the one hand, the ownership of vehicles in cities in the USA, Canada and Australia show that saturation levels are reached between 600 to 700 vehicle per 1000 persons. These rates are associated with, high incomes and low levels of public transport use at less than 5%. The population density of these cities is generally low and below 25 persons per hectare Most European Cities on the other hand, maintain incomes comparable to the earlier group of cities, but have significantly higher public transport patronage of around 25%. In these instances, the vehicle ownership rate appears to saturate at around 300 to 400 vehicles per 1000 persons. In these cities however, population density is higher (25-75 persons/ha). Most cities also apply some degree of traffic restraint usually in the form of parking limitations The third group refers mostly to Asian cities, where vehicle ownership levels seem to taper off at even lower levels. Public transport in these cities is between 50-80%. This is achieved by intensifying improvements to public transport and simultaneously applying equally intense traffic and even vehicle ownership restrain measures. These cities have much higher population densities at over 75 persons/ha The performance of public transport in these cities, in the light of increasing car ownership is shown in Figure 2.4. It is clearly observable that when vehicle ownership increases beyond 300 vehicle per 1000 persons, then public transport becomes the supporting mode rather than the dominant mode of urban transport that a significant service can be provided by public transport Such a scenario can be sustained only if, the road density is high to begin with and can be kept up by continuing road building. For road building to be sustainable, land should be available, which means that to begin with, the population density should be low. Thus cities with low road densities and high population densities would only be able to sustain relatively lower levels of traffic and correspondingly, lower vehicle ownership. Table 2.3:Vehicle Ownership Saturation Levels with Urban Parameters Population Density Population Density (persons/ha) Roads (m/person) Share of Public Transport Car Ownership Saturation (per 1000 p) Restrictions 2-8

36 Low < 25 > 4 < 5% Little or no restriction on ownership, extensive environmental restrictions Moderate % Some traffic and parking restrictions High > 75 < % Traffic and Ownership Restrictions 2.19 The following key factors will therefore determine the saturation levels that should be placed on this level of sustainable car ownership. Population Density Performance of Public Transport Road Length 2.20 According to the Colombo Traffic Study, (UoM, 1995) the share of public transport in travel within Colombo City is around 50%. The share of public transport within the CMR is estimated to be around 60%. The national average also appears to be around 60% The population density in Colombo is 174 persons/ha and according to CMRSP projections, set to increase to nearly 200 by the year According to the same projections, the population density, which is 30 persons/ha in Colombo District at present, is set to increase to 40 persons/ha The road density in metres per person, which is an alarming 0.2 in the CMC, increases only up to 1.4 in Colombo District. 2-9

37 Figure 2.3:Ownership Rates by Vehicle Type & GDP Vehicle Ownership per Capita (by type of Vehicle) and GDP per Capita in Sri Lanka [ ] Vehicle Ownership per Capita GDP per Capita (Rs. : 1958) Year 0 MC Car & Dual Purpsoe Bus Freight Veh. 3 Wheeler GDP per Capita (Rs. 1958) 2-10

38 Figure 2.4:Public Transport & Vehicle Ownership Percentage of Share of Public Transport by Vehicle Ownership (1970) % of Share of Public Transport Vehicle Ownership (1970) 2-11

39 2.23 Based on a comparison of the above with international observations given in Table 2.4, the following vehicle ownership level seems appropriate for the sub-regions within the CMR. Higher levels would become unsustainable resulting in low travel speeds, environmental problems, parking problems and overall high cost of mobility. Table 2.4:Critical Parameters Determining Sustainable Vehicle Ownership in CMR Region Vehicle Ownership Level 1998 Share of Public Transport 1998 Population Density (per/ha) Road Density (m/person) Desired Vehicle Ownership Saturation Level (per 1000 persons) CMC % Colombo District % CMR 97 60% Sri Lanka 74 60% If the present vehicle ownership levels are compared with the desired saturation levels, it appears that the CMC areas have almost reached saturation level. In order to compensate for vehicles licensed in Colombo, which are in reality operating elsewhere, the upper level of 300 vehicles per 100 persons could be adopted. This means that, the CMC s present population density and road density can sustain only a further 15% increase in vehicle ownership levels In the case of the Colombo District, where on account of the fact that public transport has a good coverage, it would be most desirable to target for saturation levels of around 300 vehicles per 1000 persons. In this case, vehicle ownership can be sustained up to an increase of around 100% In the case of the CMR as an entire region, which also has excellent bus and rail coverage, targets of around 400 vehicles per 1000 persons would be considered most appropriate Thus if international comparisons are extended, we could assume that the eventual level at which vehicle saturation would occur would be based on; increase in incomes; measures that discourage vehicle ownership and purchase (vehicle taxes, import restriction); 2-12

40 measures to discourage vehicle use (fuel taxes, tolls, parking limitations, occupancy restrictions, restricted areas/days) and quality and performance of public transport While incomes would follow from economic growth, others are brought about due to specific interventionist transport policies. Such policies would then require that traffic ceilings are enforced in CMC areas beginning in the near future; increases in car ownership is discouraged within the CMC and diverted to suburbs (other areas of Colombo District) and public transport is improved immediately, particularly in quality, in order to retain its share of the market throughout the CMR. Rates of Growth in Vehicle Ownership 2.29 In the light of effecting vehicle restraint measures, it is necessary to find out the speed (or duration) at which such measures need to be applied. Since these measures require socio-political acceptance they should be started with adequate time. 2-13

41 Figure 2.5:Vehicle Ownership Rates in CMR Vehicle Ownership Rate 300 Vehicle Ownership per CMC Col. Dist. CMR Sri Lanka Year 2-14

42 Figure 2.6: Vehicle Ownership by Income per Capita (US$) Vehicle Ownership by Income per Capita (US $) in 1980 Vehicle Ownership Income per Capita (US $) 2-15

43 2.30 The growth of vehicle ownership in different regions of the CMR is shown in Figure 2.5. It can be seen that ownership is steadily increasing within all regions of the CMR Without any interventionist measures; vehicle ownership will continue to increase with incomes. The international experience in this regard is shown in Figure2.6. Sri Lanka s per capita income for 1998 is reported at US$ 820. Its national vehicle ownership is 74 per 1000 persons. This corresponds with Figure 2.6. The per capita income in CMC or Colombo District is not known for a similar comparison Accordingly, the higher rates of growth would then occur away from the CMC. This is because, the growth rate would begin to fall as saturation levels are reached. Typically, as saturation is reached, the rate of increase would reduce to around 1-2% p.a. At lower levels of per capita ownership, this can be as high as 5-8% p.a. In the case of Colombo District and the rest of the CMR, it is anticipated that the rate of increase would continue to increase at around 5-8% p.a., before beginning to decrease on nearing saturation levels. These rates may be used for estimating future car ownership in the different areas within the CMR Thus, it could be anticipated that interventionists measures would result in vehicle ownership in the suburbs and even more remote areas of the CMR increasing much faster than at the centre. As mentioned earlier, the saturation levels should stabilise around vehicles per 1000 persons in the region. At a projected population of 6.5 million by 2010, the vehicle fleet would correspond to around 2 million vehicles in the CMR The above should then influence all transport policy and infrastructure planning within the CMR and its sub regions. This would mean that policy directive should be aimed at controlling vehicle use starting from the CMC and then spreading to Colombo District before extending to all of the CMR. Such policy should take into account steps to maintain public transport share, while planning for traffic restraint measures and measures to discourage ownership of vehicles. 2-16

44 Figure 2.7: Share of Public Transport & Population Density PercentageShare of Public Transport with Population Density % Share of Public Transport Population Density (person/ha) 2-17

45 Improvements to Public Transport 2.35 It is most clear that an efficient and sustainable transport system in the CMR would essentially include a good public transport system for radial movement and for circulation within the CMC Figure 2.7 shows the relationship of public transport with population density in a sample of cities world wide. Clearly, public transport becomes a necessary and appropriate mode of travel when population density is high and density of roads is low at the same time. In such a scenario when incomes increase, it is public transport that can provide sustainable transport. Bus Transport 2.37 Bus transport has been the predominant mode of motorised travel in Sri Lanka. It is observed that in spite of increasing vehicle ownership, the per capita bus travel has also increased by around 4% p.a. It should be moreover noted that the bus fleet grew at only 2% p.a. at a rate of only half that of the growth of demand. This has led to almost twice the loads on buses when compared to average loading at time of nationalisation (Figure 2.8) in The Bus Transport Policy (1998) assumes that the demand for bus transport will continue to grow at around 5% p.a., over the next 20 years However, at an observed rate of 11.2% p.a. increase in personal mobility, public transport would also have to increase at around 7-10% p.a., if vehicle ownership is to be maintained at the desired levels. Presently, the public transport sector experiences a growth of only 5% p.a. resulting in private vehicles experiencing a much higher rate of increase. 2-18

46 Figure 2.8:Load Factors in Buses ( ) Load Factor in Buses in Sri Lanka ( ) Load Factor Year 2-19

47 2.40 Information on the historical growth of bus transport in the CMR is unprocessed as yet. Hence, it is not possible to ascertain if the growth rates in the CMR would be different from national norms. The share of passengers carried by bus on the major corridors appear to vary from an average of around 55% at the city boundary to around 75% at the boundary of the CMR. The highest flow of bus passengers appear to be on Galle Road where an estimated 187,000 passengers are carried in nearly 6,000 buses every day Although basic bus fares are considered as affordable, the quality of bus transport is considered inadequate. Increase in bus travel times, over loading, lingering at bus stops, speeding, and discourteous crew are regular complaints of bus passengers. The Bus Transport Policy Report envisages maintaining the present bus modal share in the CMR through a series of measures aimed at improving both quality and quantity of bus transport. The improvement of quality by reducing the high load factors of 123% (overloading level) to the targeted 80% is one such measure. Rail Transport 2.42 The transport modal shares of the railways have gradually declined over the years. The overall railway share at the CMC and CMR boundaries is around 10%. The Six- Year Development Plan of the Sri Lanka Railways targets that the railway would carry 20% of traffic on the corridors by the year Even with the proposed doubling of market shares on the corridors, the overall share of the market would continue to remain at less than 10%. However, it can be concluded that the contribution of the railways would be most significant along the corridors. At present, the Main Line carries between 20-30% of all passenger movements on that corridor. However, only the Main Line and Coastal Line carry significant shares. Both the Negombo and Kelani valley lines carry less than 4% of the traffic on their respective corridors. New Public Transit Systems 2.44 The CMRSP has proposed a People Mover System for Colombo City as a means of improving public transport as well as introducing a higher level of service in public transport. This is essential if pubic transport is to be a viable alternative for people whose incomes are increasing. They would look for quality in public transport. If passengers, whose incomes are increasing all the time, do not find adequate quality, then the need to own and then use a private vehicle would be un-stoppable. Therefore, the need for a new public transit system has a wider connotation than its immediate 2-20

48 financial viability. It should be a part of a strategic plan of managing mobility in the CMR. 2-21

49 3. ESTIMATES OF TRANSPORT DEMAND & SUPPLY IN THE CMR ESTIMATING TRANSPORT DEMAND 3.1 There are several parameters that are of critical importance in understanding the nature of transport demand for the future. These may be considered as the growth of population, distribution of population, income of population, performance of public transport, traffic restraints and vehicle ownership. Population 3.2 The population estimates and projections used in the CMRSP are given in Table 3.1. Table 3.1: Population Estimates & Projections in CMRSP (000 s) Area Projections AAGR CMC % Col. Dist. 1,498 1,699 2, % 2,252 2,480 2,730 CMR 3,400 3,918 4, % 5,264 5,849 6,500 Income 3.3 Income of the CMR or its distribution is not very well understood as yet. For the purpose of estimating travel demand, we could assume that income is associated with vehicle ownership and increase in mobility. 3.4 Overall annual mobility levels as shown in Figure 3.1 have increased from around 700 kms per annum in 1958 to 4000 kms per annum per person in This is a rate of increase of 4.5% per annum per person. The corresponding growth rate in incomes has been 3.4% p.a. It can then be estimated that the elasticity of personal mobility with respect to per capita incomes is 1.3. In the case of freight transport, an income elasticity of 0.9 can be observed. 3-1

50 3.5 Thus for a moderate growth rate of the GDP by 5% p.a., which translates to an approximate per capita income growth rate of around 4% p.a., the overall transport demand increases would be 5.2 % p.a. for passengers and 3.6% p.a. for freight. 3.6 However, international comparisons of per capita mobility and incomes gathered from 19 cities by Newman and Kenworthy (1989) shows that the elasticity at higher incomes appears to be even higher. Vehicle Ownership & Public Transport 3.7 The growth of private and public transport over the next decade with interventionist measures can be anticipated as shown in Table 3.2. Table 3.2: Anticipated Growth Of Travel in CMR Region Anticipated Growth Rates (% p.a.) Public Transport Private Transport CMC 4% to 6% 2% to 3% Colombo District 4% to 6% 5% to 7% CMR 6% to 8% 7% to 9% 3-2

51 Figure 3.1:Per Capita Mobility by Mode ( ) Per Capita Mobility by Mode ( ) Per Capita Mobility (kms travelled per year) Private Public Bus Para Transit Railway Year 3-3

52 3.8 These rates correspond to the expectation that growth rates in overall mobility will increase at a higher rate away from the CMC. This is based on the CMRSP land use plan and the vehicle restrain proposed for CMC. The variation in split between pubic transport and private is based on the assumption that private vehicle use within CMC would be discouraged in favour of space efficient public transport. SYSTEMS CAPACITIES 3.9 Given that transport requirements in the CMR will grow steadily. It is necessary to estimate the carrying capacity of different transport systems. This would enable to evaluate if the existing system capacities are adequate to sustain the demand. Public Transport Systems 3.10 The foreseeable future of transport operations within the CMR has the potential for the successful introduction of a number of new technological improvements in public transport. These new technologies would progressively become more feasible with increasing ridership, lower procurement costs and increasing incomes. A summary of capacities of these systems is given in Table