Hyperion Towards Terawatt PV Power

Transcription

1 Hyperion Towards Terawatt PV Power Bengt Stridh, ABB Corporate Research, Stockholm Situation for a Swedish PV-system owner ABB Group Slide 1

2 Potential for PV electricity in Sweden too! TWh/year possible if 25% of roofs and facades with min 70% of max solar irradiation are used Without exploiting one single square meter of new land! Without disturbing the landscape 2.5 m W Today Only a tiny fraction of available surfaces are used for solar energy National planning goal is missing What happens with investment subsidy after 2012? Electricity certificate system not suitable for small producers Large lack of knowledge about solar energy My house before

3 PV one of the best options For production of own electricity Relatively even distribution of solar irradiation over Sweden ~99% lives where 900 kwh/kw per year possible with ideal fixed PV system 1074 kwh/kw for best fixed system known in 2011 Easy installation 85% of the Swedish population lived in densely populated areas in 2010 Electricity from wind, hydro or waves are not as good alternatives as PV for own production of electricity Global horizontal irradiation per year

4 PV potential on existing buildings ~400 km 2 roofs and facades with 70% of maximum solar irradiation Using 25% of these would give TWh/year 8-11% of Swedish final electricity consumption in 2010

5 PV on buildings Advantages Without exploiting any new land Production where consumption is Minimal transmission and distribution losses No disturbing noise No disturbance of landscape Own production increases interest for the electrical consumption Possible electricity savings are explored and realized

6 What are the problems in Sweden? PV potential and current price development not understood by decision makers and visions missing In a study made of the governments plan for energy supply 2020 Sweden was at the very bottom of EC countries regarding solar energy No planning goal exist and long term thinking is absent for solar energy in Sweden It is gone with the wind Planning goal for wind 10 TWh in 2015 and 30 TWh in 2020

7 Support systems in Sweden: 1. Investment subsidy Very small budget! Investment subsidy 45% of investment Budget 60 MSEK (6.7 M ) in 2012 Will give ~4 MW installed PV Compare German new goal of GW for 2012 and 2013 Many more applications than can be approved Very small budget if we really want to develop the PV market in Sweden!

8 Support systems in Sweden: 2. Electricity certificates Negligible support to PV Electricity certificates (started in 2003) 1 certificate per MWh Average value 25 öre/kwh (2.8 Euro cent/kwh) in 2011, excl. VAT 52 PV plants of in total 3177 plants Only ~10% of PV plants have applied for certificates Of 19.8 million issued certificates in 2011 only 556 were from PV plants!! Value ~137 ksek (15.4 k ) for PV of totally ~4.9 miljarder kr (549 million ), excl. VAT Electricity certificates gives negligible support to the development of PV market in Sweden

9 PV system 3.36 kw 19.4 m 2 Existing roof area fairly good utilized Net bought electricity May-August 181 kwh in 2011 Example Solar thermal 10 m 2 PV 19.4 m kw

10 Problem own consumption vs. own production Own PV production coincides only to a part with the need for a building Example house with 3.36 kw PV 2899 kwh in % excess production 62% during June What to do with excess electricity? Critical question that has not yet been solved in a proper way in Sweden! Is at a all worthwhile to build a system that gives excess production? Difficult to plan size of system

11 Problem - What to do with excess electricity? 1. Give electricity away Possible Not longer necessary, a lot has changed during last 2 years! 2. Sell electricity Possible, to certain electricity dealers or grid owners but is it good? 3. Net metering Not possible in general Not allowed according to Swedish Tax Agency! 4. Store in batteries or by heating water, for later use Possible, more expensive and lower system efficiency

12 Buyers of excess electricity from small producers Mostly from company web pages there are more buyers Net metering Elinorr = 16 different grid owners (yearly) Mälarenergi (monthly) Utsikt (monthly) Electricity dealers buying from all Bixia (Nord Pool Spot per hour) E.ON (Spot 0.4 cent/kwh) Telge Energi (1.5 or 2.5 kr/kwh = 17 or 28 cent/kwh, paused after 100 MWh was reached) Electricity dealers buying from customers DinEl (~1 kr/kwh ~11 cent/kwh) Egen El (0.50 kr/kwh = 6 cent/kwh) Gotlands Elförsäljning (Spot 4 öre/kwh = 0.4 cent/kwh) Sala-Heby Energi (1.50 kr/kwh = 17 cent/kwh, special 3.20 kr/kwh = 36 cent/kwh) Vattenfall Elförsäljning (Spot 0.4 cent/kwh) Electricity dealers buying if grid customer Affärsverken Höörs Energi (1 kr/kwh = 11 cent/kwh) Kreab (11 cent/kwh) Lunds energi (11 cent/kwh) Nynäshamn energi (11 cent/kwh) Ringsjö energi (11 cent/kwh) Skånska energi marknad (11 cent/kwh) Öresundskraft (11 cent/kwh) Grid owners, if you live in the right place Borlänge Energi Elnät (1 kr/kwh = 11 cent/kwh) Dala Energi Elnät (11 cent/kwh) Envikens Elnät (11 cent/kwh) Falu Elnät (11 cent/kwh) Fortum Distribution (Spot 0.4 cent/kwh) Hedemora Energi (11 cent/kwh) Malungs Elnät (11 cent/kwh) Smedjebacken Energi Nät (11 cent/kwh)

13 Value of excess electricity Saved electricity has a larger value than sold electricity! Compare with the value of PV electricity when replacing bought electricity ~1.1 kr/kwh (~12 Euro cent/kwh) Fixed cost not affected Difficult to understand the value of the excess electricity Value of excess electricity varies a lot öre/kwh ( cent/kwh) Depending on how active you are Depending on grid owner Depending on if you have applied for electricity certificates and found a buyer for them Value also varies over time Example house Value (incl. VAT) Villa Gäddeholm 2011 (öre/kwh) (Euro cent/kwh) Grid owner - reduced losses Sold electricity dealer, Nord Pool spot market Sold electricity grid owner 0 0 Electricity certificates Guarantee of origin 0 0 SUM value excess electricity ~95 ~ 10.7 SUM without certificates Only ~10% of PV plants have applied for certificates ~64 ~ 7.2

14 Vision Available building roofs are utilized for solar energy Possibility to net metering or equivalent critical Since value of excess electricity determines the sizing of the PV system 19.4 m kw

15 Most wanted To support PV in Sweden Net metering needed now To be able to make use of all availabe building surfaces the period should be longer than one month, preferably one year Elinorr has a good model for such a metering system Administrated by the grid owner only Compatible with all administrative systems Planning goal for solar energy in Sweden is needed Stable support system needed to get the market up and running Current investment subsidy only available until the end of 2012 What happens from 2013? Proposal from government for net metering not finished until 2013

16 Further reading ABB Group April 20, 2012 Slide 16

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